Odds and Ends: Wrapping up 2014 in the news

Dec. 31, 2014, just under the wire: 2014 is over and there was some news unrelated to the loss of AirAsia flight 8501:

Bombardier: The company received a firm order for 24 CRJ900s from an unidentified customer (we believe it is a US regional airline). The National Post of Canada also has this look at how 2015 will be a “pivotal” year for the CSeries. BBD also announced an order from mega-lessor GECAS for five Q400s and options for 10 more.

ARJ-21 certified: The Chinese government certified the COMAC ARJ-21, the 70 seat regional jet that looks like the old Douglas DC-9-10. The airplane is now supposed to go into service in April or May, only eight years late.

Boeing declares victory: The year was really over yet but Boeing declared victory over Airbus in this Dec. 29 story in The Seattle Times. Yes, Boeing will deliver more airplanes than Airbus in 2014, but will it truly end with more orders? Airbus won’t reveal its full 2014 performance until its annual press conference Jan. 13, and it’s famous for announcing a whole bunch of orders to pull the proverbial rabbit out of the hat. So we’ll wait and see then who truly has the bragging rights for the full year.

Airbus and Boeing: For all of our extremely partisan Airbus and Boeing readers, choke on this one: Airbus and Boeing have teamed up to bid on a defense contract, reports Aviation Week.

Real-time tracking: It’s possible and it’s being done. See this Washington Post article.

12 Comments on “Odds and Ends: Wrapping up 2014 in the news

  1. …” The airplane is now supposed to go into service in April or May, only eight years late…

    Hmmmm … the old cliche re China copying everything- sounds like they also copied the 7 late 7 program management 😛

  2. Well if you are going to copy do it form a very successful program!

    Sadly the issues were 98% management induced and very few truly technical.

    Even the battery was management created and mostly caused.

    From the description the work environment sounds like something out of a Sinclair novel.

    • I think there is hesitation in a accepting the 787 was also rattled with technical issues that cannot be blamed on outsourcing, “management”, foreigh suppliers or workmanship, but on engineering done in the US.

      Anyway deliveries seem to have taken off in 2014, with the improved 787-9 soon taken over from the -8 is terms of orders, backlog and deliveries.

  3. Flight Tracking:

    Maybe better than nothing but still not a great solution.
    Have a snap update every 15 seconds to a minute would be better.
    Its not data intensive, store a week and a manual erase and probably any desktop could hold a fleets worth of data (obviously more sophisticated and triple storage in separate locations)

    And obviously it needs to have a fail safe in that if the main system is turned off (MH370 and there will be others) a second system kicks in and automatically broadcast location data every 15 seconds.

    I think I have counted 4 pilot suicide (I think MH370 is 99.9% certain). Silkair, Africa, Egyptair 767.,

    And I continue to contend cockpit video is mandatory.

    there are issues with flight data in that an Ipod does not have to survive a crash, but that can be worked on.

    Also EPERS not going off in a sea crash, why have them if they don’t work? Will they even go off in a hard land crash?

  4. Re; Boeing/Airbus team-up on KF-X:

    I don’t know how this is in any way not devastating to the Eurofighter Typhoon, if this story is to be believed. One would think that Typhoon would be offered by Airbus Military as a KF-X contender, but if Airbus is trying to tie up with Boeing to offer the Eurofighter’s competitor, the F/A-18E/F/G, then it shows no confidence in the Typhoon’s continued export prospects.

    Not like it wasn’t getting torched continually by the F-35 anyway, or the F-15, Gripen, or Rafale in all the recent contests. (Singapore and Korea, Switzerland, India, respectively)

  5. Burried in this link is what I think is the correct single aisle (current) market mix.

    http://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/news/2014/12/30/as-2014-comes-to-a-close-boeing-leads-airbus-in.html

    Boeing actually has a slight edge (440 vs 436) ergo as close to 50/50 as it gets. How that plays out as the A321 gains more traction is another story but that tells you it is monthly production and deliveries not sales in different years that is relevant in any given year (sales can be a trend but only if its year to year comparison as well as deliveries) as over booking is SOP in the single aisles.

    That also calculate out as 36-37 per month.

    In other words it really is deliveries that count not sales. If you can’t deliver what you sold you don’t collect any money for it. Both are making (or going to) 40-42 a month and all the sales in the world will not change that they actually only make money on deliveries.

    • “In other words it really is deliveries that count not sales.”

      This echoes a remark former Boeing CEO Phil Condit said: orders don’t matter, deliveries matter.

      We said then that this was the dumbest statement a CEO could make. If you don’t get orders, eventually you run out of deliveries.

      • I may be as dumb as Phil, I am a nuts and bolts kind of guy and apples to apples comparison is what I think is real world.

        I do agree that long term sales should be the ultimate decider. But it has to be put in context of how many you can make (deliver) vs sales. Its not like autos that you can ramp up aircraft production rapidly to meet demand.

        To put it in context with a non real world example, year in and year out, you sell 500 a year and deliver only 400 then your sales are meaningless if the other guy only sells 400 and delivers 400, you are both at 50% market. Airbus can sell 50,000 but if they can only deliver 400 a year, then the 50,000 is nice warm fuzzy marking thing but has no real world meaning if Boeing also delivers 400 a year and only sells 10,000.

        Your market share in other words is not sales, its deliveries. If you can crank up deliveries above the other guy then you do have market share of that but the numbers look like they are exactly 50/50 for this year and if Airbus does not ramp up, year by year they fall behind on market share.

        Total sales for the A320 series is not relevant if those sales are out to 2020 and you compare sales for 737 to 2017 (yes if there are no 737s sales past 2017 then Boeing falls off the cliff)

        Numbers sold can matter but only if you can deliver more than the other guy (either side) or he falls off that cliff.

        The other factor (to me) is what do you get for the delivery price wise? If you can get more for yours than the other guy gets for his that is a huge plus for you.

        As long as Boeing can sell out their yearly production and deliver as many or more than Airbus, then their real world market share is as good or better.

        Will that hold true if there is a market collapse? Maybe not. but presently that’s my real world take.

        Is there any foreseeable year that Boeing has not sold as many as they are making?

        • To clarify, more accurately my take on what I think is real world data.

          As noted, that could change in Airbus favor (and maybe is if they are making more money per aircraft than Boeing.). Boeing had to put more into the 737 than Airbus so even if Airbus did not get more money per aircraft they are probably going to make more. they may be able get both.

          But it can also change in Boeing favor if Boeing comes out with an all new aircraft (highly unlikely in the near future of 10 years but …)

          Airbus certainly is in the drivers seat in the A321 segment and should make good money there as they have no competition.

  6. Just last October, Boeing, Airbus and Thales signed a deal to provide 15 Airbus EC135 helicopters for the ADF.

    “Airbus Helicopters is very pleased that the Boeing and Thales team has demonstrated its confidence in our product by selecting the EC135 T2+ as their preferred platform, and we are delighted to be supporting them in the development of a new, modern helicopter aircrew training system for the ADF”

    http://australianaviation.com.au/2014/11/boeing-airbus-sign-deal-for-hats-ec-135s/

    So they do get together once in a while. 😉

  7. That is just so wrong!

    You have to wonder if they won’t conspire to keep the duopoly going as well.

  8. Boeing is convincing the press, stockholders and itself the 737MAX is good enough for the next 10-15 years.

    Leahy keeps quiet. Never interrupt your opponent creating incomplete conclusions.

    E.g in the US apart from Southwest the orderbook is dominated by lessors and “undisclosed” is the biggest customer. While 320s stream into AA, Delta, Jetblue, Virgin, Hawaiian, Spirit and possibly United soon.

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