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Introduction

Jan. 30, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Bombardier hopes to land a major, blue-chip order for its CSeries this year but otherwise isn’t counting on significant orders for its flagship airliner. Officials don’t have available delivery slots until 2020, bar a few here and there, to attract sizeable orders. The future of the aging CRJ could get a boost from recalcitrant Us labor unions who refuse to alter the 86,000 lb aircraft weight limit under the Scope Clauses. These make the Embraer E175-E2 and Mitsubishi MRJ90 too heavy for the regional airlines providing contract flying for the US majors. The future of the Q400 turboprop looks bleak.

Summary

• The CSeries delivery stream appears sufficient to match production ramp up through 2019.
• There is a big production gap in 2020 at the target rate of 10/mo.
• More than 50 firm orders have indefinite deferred delivery dates.
• The backlog for the CRJ “falls off the cliff” next year, as does the Q400.