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By Vincent Valery

Introduction  

Jan. 23, 2023, © Leeham News: Boeing’s share of outstanding single-aisle orders has fallen significantly behind Airbus. If we include the order book for single-aisle aircraft seating 100 or more passengers of Airbus, Boeing, COMAC, Embraer, and UAC, the American OEM’s market share is now 37% (Airbus has 58%, COMAC 3%, Embraer 2%, and UAC 2%).

Richard Aboulafia sees a risk that Boeing’s market share in the single-aisle market will dip below 30% without the entry into service of a new aircraft before 2035. Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO Stan Deal said that it is viable for the American OEM’s single-aisle market share to stay around 40%.

A321neo Credit: Airbus

In the 2022 Boeing outlook, LNA also noted that there are significantly more A320ceo than 737 NG operators. A broader operator base means more opportunities to place new orders with a more diversified group of airlines. In the context of no new single-aisle family entering service in the next 10 years, convincing operators to “flip” to the competition will be the primary way to increase market share.

Exclusively looking at the nominal order books and A320ceo and 737 NG operators does not provide a comprehensive view of Airbus’ and Boeing’s relative positions in the single-aisle market, though.

In their 2022-2041 commercial market outlooks (CMO), Airbus and Boeing indicated that nearly half of all single-aisle deliveries would replace older-generation aircraft. Looking at the existing in-service fleet of older-generation aircraft provides a better picture of replacement order opportunities by the OEM.

LNA investigates in this article the existing order books of the five major OEMs and operator bases to better assess their relative competitive positions and quantify the current replacement order opportunities.

Summary

• A comprehensive single-aisle fleet snapshot;
• Breaking down the order books between replacements and growth;
• Keep track of order choices for older-generation operators;
• Remaining replacement order opportunities;
• A word about single-aisle freighters.