Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Boeing to use 10 787s for tests
Update, Sept. 2: Boeing retracts its information to Buckingham.
Buckingham just put out a follow-up note to its one issued yesterday, cited below. Interesting to say the least:
BA is using 2, not 4 additional aircraft for 787 certification
Yesterday we reported that BA is using 10 aircraft in the certification process vs. 6 originally to prevent further 787 delays. Today, BA contacted us to clarify their initial statement calling for 4 additional aircraft in the 787 certification program. BA now states that only 2 additional 787 aircraft will be used in certification: aircraft #9 for ETOPS and another unspecified 787 for ground tests. We believed that first delivery could slip into 2Q from 1Q given the need for 10 aircraft in flight test. Eight aircraft in flight test improves our outlook and lowers the risk of another 787 delay. (Emphasis is Buckingham’s.)
Update, 3:30PM PDT:
Boeing issued this statement:
There will be limited testing on two additional airplanes for a total of eight airplanes (not four for a total of 10). The additional testing is driven by the requirement that some of the testing be done on airplanes in production configuration as opposed to flight test configuration. One airplane will do some ground testing. The other will do some flight testing.
We also received this statement from Boeing:
We will be doing testing on two airplanes in addition to the dedicated flight test fleet. Some of the later tests require airplanes that are in production configuration. This has always been part of the baseline plan.
Although Boeing says this was “always part of the base plan,” Buckingham’s report was the first time we’ve heard of more than six airplanes (whether it’s eight or 10) being involved in the test program. Analyst and media presentations never mentioned this, that we are aware of. In fact, those who followed the 787 program will well remember that Boeing was very clear: they felt they could do the flight testing in eight months (a timeline that drew universal skepticism on Wall Street) because there would be six airplanes doing the testing, an increase from the 777 test program.
What we now understand from our sourcing is that more than six airplanes were part of the contingency plans in case things went south.
Update, 1:15pm PDT: Guy Norris of Aviation Week has this report on why the Trent 1000 failed.
Original Post:
Boeing will use 10 787s to complete certification, a Wall Street aerospace analyst reported today in a research note, the first time this has been revealed.
Richard Safran of Buckingham Research writes:
Originally, BA intended to use six 787 test aircraft for certification. BA CEO Jim McNerney previously spoke about contingency plans to maintain the 787 flight test schedule. One plan was to shift ETOPS (Extended Twin-engine Over-ocean Performance Specification) testing from the original 6 flight test aircraft to 787 #7-10. In order to prevent further delays to the 787 schedule, BA is now using 10 aircraft in the certification process. The engine failure of 787 #9 in ground test delayed certification (and first delivery) because RR did not have a replacement. Since BA is now relying on 10 aircraft for certification and given the difficulty getting 787 #6 into the test program (now slated for September), we think it’s possible first delivery of the 787 could slip beyond 1Q11 to 2Q11.
Separately. we inquired of Boeing about some other aspects of the engine issue (Rolls-Royce, as is typical, did not respond for comment).
New, 6-12 month delay forecast for 747-8
Buckingham Research forecasts a new delay in first delivery of the Boeing 747-8 of 6-12 months.
Boeing has indicated first delivery was likely to slip into 2011, but hasn’t announced the move yet. Boeing said design issues were the reason; Buckingham said oscillation and flutter issues remain to be resolved, including possibly a need to relocate the inboard engines.
Despite this and the new delay on the 787, Buckingham maintains a Buy rating.
More turmoil at Boeing; 747 chief ousted
Flightblogger’s Jon Ostrower has this story that the head of the 747-8 program has been replaced as delays mount, flight testing stalls and new delivery delays are expected to be announced within weeks.
Vice president and general manager Mo Yahyavi has been replaced by Pat Shanahan, the head of all commercial programs, and Elizabeth Lund, who has been the head of the 767 program.
New 787 delay coming Aug. 27
Update, 1:30pm PDT: A reporter has found a confidential memo to Boeing CEO Jim McNerney outlining five more reasons for yet another 787 delay. Here is the report.
Update, 12:00pm PDT: The finger-pointing begins. The Seattle PI has this report quoting Rolls as saying the new 787 delay isn’t its fault.
Update, Aug. 27: Here are some key stories with details about the delay:
Original Post:
Boeing is expected to announce another delay in the 787 program Friday, Aug. 27, Leeham News and Comment has learned.
First delivery of the 787 of the long and oft-delayed 787 was supposed to be next month, then in December; a delay to mid- or late first quarter is expected to be announced.
Others believe the first delivery could slip to the second quarter.
US appeal of Airbus WTO ruling aimed at A350, future of A320
There is been some perplexed reaction to the appeal by the US Trade Representative to the World Trade Organization that the USTR and Boeing claimed only a few months ago were sweeping victories in the complaint that Europe had illegally subsidized Airbus over four decades.
There shouldn’t be any confusion; the answer is simple. Say “A350” and “A320.”
To be sure, the US won most of the important points it challenged but as Airbus, its parent EADS and the European Union pointed out at the time—and which we reported—the US failed to prevail on the all-important point that launch aid, per se, was illegal.
The US appealed this finding, as well as findings that certain financial aid provided by France for the A380 development was not illegal export subsidies. The US also has appealed this finding.
Here’s what Airbus said Friday in response to the US appeals:
RR speaks out on NEO vs new airplanes
Rolls-Royce speaks out on its views of Airbus and Boeing going with a new engine option for their A320-737 class airplanes in this long Wall Street Journal article.
We’ll make two observations:
Boeing’s Albaugh talks about labor
This is the third segment of our interview with Jim Albaugh, CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, during the Farnborough Air Show.
Union issues remain contentious. The rhetoric between the International Association of Machinists, both at its Washington headquarters and at the Puget Sound Local 751, and Boeing’s CEO Jim McNerney, is already testy. Messages are also sometimes conflicting, even within Boeing. While Boeing Commercial CEO Jim Albaugh seems predisposed toward keeping work in Puget Sound if a long-term union agreement can be reached, McNerney takes the clearly more chest-thumping approach that unions here must “earn” the work—despite the facts that labor is pumping out 737s at record rates and may be asked to boost production by 50%; that Boeing relies on labor’s support for the KC-X tanker competition; and labor is fixing all the problems on the 787 originating at overseas and non-union shops.
At the same time, the 2008 strike by IAM 751 cost the company billions of dollars. The 58 day strike disrupted production and deliveries, causing some customers—notably Richard Branson—to throw public fits over the strike. IAM 751 struck in 2005 and nearly did so in 2002. Management is tired of having these strikes every three years (or, potentially, in 2012 with a four year contract this time).
When Boeing decided to create a second assembly line for the 787, management demanded a long-term contract from 751. In what to this day remains hotly disputed and diametrically opposing views over what happened, Boeing decided to put the second line in the plant at Charleston (SC), where quality control continues to be an issue. At the same time, a “surge” line will be established in Everett to assure deliveries while Charleston becomes efficient, a process that will take years. So while management grouses about 751, it is also relying on 751 to save its bacon, so-to-speak.
Here is our interview with Jim Albaugh about labor.