Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Pontifications: Boeing needs massive reset, and not just with labor October 14, 2024
- How Boeing’s actions affect Products, Airbus: Analysis (Update) October 11, 2024
- Boeing Announces Preliminary Significant Q3 Loss: Cuts 767 Freighter Program, Delays 777X EIS, Major Layoffs October 11, 2024
- Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 28. Wrapup. October 11, 2024
- Boeing strike hits suppliers, Airbus steps in October 10, 2024
Sequence of Events of MH370 and the probabilities
The mystery of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370 continues, as the search area today shifted nearly 700 miles to the northeast following continued analysis of known data of the flight.
Investigative focus also is on the pilot of the flight, while others continue to support mechanical, fire or depressurization theories.
We felt from the second day this was a criminal act of some kind, not some issue with the airplane. The information, we felt, clearly pointed to movements of the airplane as a result of someone in command control of the Boeing 777.
We put together this sequence of events that, to us and apparently also to investigators, that we believe points to no other explanation but human intervention.
Large debris field spotted in MH370 search–is it from the airplane?
A large debris field has been spotted in the search for Malaysian Airlines flight MH370. A satellite from Airbus Defence and Space photographed 122 large and small pieces of something. Searchers are en route to eyeball and recover this to determine if the debris is from the plane.
We plotted the location and created this image to further illustrate the remoteness of the location. This is at the edge of the potential search zone we plotted shortly after the airplane disappeared.
We also added the reported and estimated flight paths, though we were unable on this scale to include the several reported turns within the Strait of Malacca area. There are distinct turns from the intended flight path (and several more within the Strait of Malacca that were reported) which, to us, indicates a pilot-in-command of some kind, rather than a “ghost” airplane.
As we linked yesterday, former pilot John Nance believes a criminal act took illegal command of the airplane and then once on the southward tract put the plane on auto-pilot and then depressurized the airplane, killing all on board. The Boeing 777 then flew south to fuel exhaustion.
Odds and Ends: MH370 tracking; Garuda rules out A380, 747-8; last 747-400 flight; E-Jet vs Turbo-props
MH370 tracking: With Britain’s Immarsat and the Air Accident Investigation Board key to determining the general location of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370, The London Telegraph has one of the best narratives of of the behind-the-scenes story of how this came about. The London Independent also has a good story. And here is a story that explains the difficulties of searching in remote oceans.
- Update, 10:30am PDT: Aviation analyst and former pilot John Nance is profiled in this Puget Sound Business Journal account that includes’ Nance’s theory of MH370. It’s an intriguing theory. He believes this was a deliberate act–either terrorism or murder-suicide–and that once the flight settled out southbound from Malaysia, it was set on auto-pilot and all aboard, including the pilot, were killed by asphyxiation. The airplane flew until it ran out of fuel and crashed into the Indian Ocean; he even gives a speed and angle-of-attack estimate.
Garuda rules out A380, 747-8: The Australian reports that after planning to order either the Airbus A380 or Boeing 747-8 last year, officials have ruled this out.
Last 747-400 flight: Japan’s All Nippon Airlines plans to complete its last Boeing 747-400 flight this month, ending an iconic era in the country where 747s once ruled the skies.
E-Jet vs Turbo-Props: At the ISTAT conference last week, we reported that Embraer says its E-175 E2 is more efficient than similarly sized turbo props on missions of more than 250 miles. This story in The Economic Times of India follows through on this theme.
Caution on recovering data from MH370 FDR, CVR
With the news that the Malaysian authorities announced that Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 ended in the Southern Indian Ocean, and the US Navy is sending a “pinger locator” there to look for the black boxes, we need to raise some caution about assumptions that these will reveal all there is to know about what happened on the flight.
The flight data recorder (FDR) and cockpit voice recorder (CVR) are located in the rear of the airplane, inaccessible to the cockpit or cabin, a Boeing 777 instructor tells us. Unlike the Boeing 737 in which a rogue pilot turned off these devices before plunging the airplane in a suicide dive, the 777’s FDR and CVR power controls are only accessible in the electronics bay and the access is through a floor panel outside the cockpit, in the cabin of the aircraft.
Assuming the FDR and CVR, therefore, were operational right up until the time of the crash of the airplane, there should be data recoverable if these units are eventually found. The FDR, being digital, has a 24 hour capacity and should provide a wealth of information. The CVR has only a two hour capacity and may yield much less, however. Clearly, it won’t reveal anything that happened over the Gulf of Thailand—this will have been overwritten by the end of MH370. But whether there is anything to be revealed on the last two hours for the flight is going to be uncertain.
In the US, by law the cockpit conversations recordings are only in 30 minute increments-the most recent 30 minutes. If this practice is true for other countries, including Malaysia, anything said in the cockpit as to what transpired when the plane originally was “lost” while still over the Gulf of Thailand will be lost to history. But the final 30 minutes of cockpit conversation, and any noise from the cabin within “earshot” of the cockpit microphones, should be retained on the CVR. But also in the US, pilots have the ability to erase the CVR once at the gate—and it’s certainly possible this occurred before MH370 went into the ocean.
Given the success, albeit two years after the crash, investigators had in recovering the FDR and CVR of Air France Flight 447 (the one that crashed into the South Atlantic in 2009, with main wreck recovered from around 12,000 ft), we feel reasonably confident MH370 will eventually be found and the recorders recovered. But manage your expectations about what might be found on the recorders.
Why we think a fire on MH370 is unlikely; 777 has lots of smoke/fire detection to give ample warning; hypoxia theory
One of the early theories about the disappearance of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370 has been the prospect of a fire in the electronics bay, or elsewhere in the airplane, that led pilots to begin pulling circuit breakers to isolate the fire. This theory continues that the transponders and radio communications, including ACARS, systematically failed as a result of the fire.
This scenario, while it can’t be totally ruled out, is unlikely, in our view.
The best example of this scenario is Swissair Flight 111, a McDonnell Douglas MD-11, that crashed off Nova Scotia in 1998. Shortly after takeoff from New York for Geneva, Switzerland, the pilots smelled smoke and smoke eventually began to emerge in the cockpit. However, the pilots radioed Air Traffic Control of the situation and began to divert to Halifax. It is true they began to pull circuit breakers, per procedure, to isolate the problem. However, even as it got worse, the pilots radioed updates and the decision to dump fuel prior to an emergency landing. Thus, this fire scenario hypothesized for MH370 breaks down. Tragically, Swissair 111 crashed as the fire went out of control. This is an important point that will be addressed below.
Associated with the theory that a fire somehow led to hypoxia is another of which we’re skeptical. This would require a hull breach and the failure warning equipment to alert the crew.
MH370 search off Australia: exercise caution; images could be “sea junk”
The search for Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 has shifted to about 1,500 miles west of Australia following the discovery of something in the waters there by satellite images.
One of the objects is about 80 feet long. As with the images released by China of objects in the Gulf of Thailand of roughly the same size, the idea that something 80 feet long seems to us to be too heavy to float. Except in this case, we think if could be possible. Here’s why.
In the Gulf of Thailand, this would have been with an hour or so after take off–a plane still laden with fuel. In Australia, the plane would have been at the point of having used up all its fuel. Therefore, we think it possible a wing separated from the airplane upon impact with the water might remain afloat.
See this video of the impact of the Ethiopian Boeing 767. This was in shallow water, but there is a split second midway through the video where it appears one wing is floating on the water (this is different from the image at the end, where it seems a wing is resting on the bottom).
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WE2Yn0cipTY]
Having said all that, we urge caution in leaping to conclusions that whatever the Australian images saw, this area of the ocean is, by news accounts, replete with “sea junk.”
MH370, Day 12: 10 theories, courtesy of BBC
To no surprise, we’re still wondering where Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370 is.
The BBC has an excellent review of 10 theories about the flight’s mysterious disappearance, which beat us to it; we had planned to take this approach now that we’re done with the ISTAT conference.
One theory that recently surfaced is the fire-in-the-cargo-hold, destroying all communications. We point out once more that there are five radios on the plane plus two transponders. The last cargo hold fire we can remember was the ValuJet DC-9 accident on May 11, 1996. But these pilots had time to radio before being overcome by smoke. Despite plunging nose first into the Miami Everglades, there was still some debris–small though it was. We discount this theory.
The more telling bizarre twist is the revelation that Thailand military had detected an unidentified blip but waited 10 days to present the information–because it hadn’t been asked.
One would have thought that someone might have taken the initiative to volunteer this information before being asked.
The Thai and Malaysian militaries need to hold joint maneuvers in incompetence.
Odds and Ends: MH370 ACARS and landing areas
There continues to be mystery shrouding the disappearance of MAS flight MH370 and with it, loads of theories.
There is also continuing puzzlement over how the ACARS health monitoring system could have been turned off. We reported last week that simply flipping a switch could do so while other suggest it is far more complicated.
We once more turned to a Boeing 777 pilot/instructor to revisit this. His reply:
It’s all well and good to put this together, and to suggest the plane landed at some field–but then what? How do you hide a Boeing 777 from satellites photography? If the airplane is to be refueled for future use, how do you service it (i.e., get enough fuel to a remote, undisclosed location to refuel it)? If you landed on a short strip, you likely need a lot of skill to take off again (see the Boeing Dreamlifter that landed a the wrong airport in Kansas), which suggests this would be beyond a “mere” hijacker.
We continue to believe the airplane crashed, or was crashed, into the ocean.
MH370, Day 7: Malaysian authorities’ latest statement
We’ve been provided the latest statement from the Malaysian authorities, from which news reports have been written. We find the information in the statement to be more than a little interesting, so we’re reprinting it verbatim.
Official statement: