Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 19. April 25, 2025
- How good is the C929? Part 2. April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results Update: China is 10% of the backlog, with 500 in “Unidentified” April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results: Tariffs, Return flights, $10.55bn asset sale April 23, 2025
- RTX Q1 2025 Earnings: GTF Talk Takes A Back Seat To Tariffs April 22, 2025
Former defense official favors split tanker buy
George Talbot of The Mobile Press-Register has an article about John Lehman, a former defense official in the Reagan administration, favoring a split buy for the KC-X program. Read more
USAF Cadets work on tanker fuel burn reduction, and other things
US Air Force Cadets are designing wing refinements for the aging fleet of Boeing KC-135R tankers to improve fuel efficiency by 8%, reports CleanTechnica.com.
Why a bunch of cadets? Perhaps because the US Air Force Academy in Colorado Springs aerospace engineering programs ranks in the Top 5 in US News & World Report’s annual rankings (2009). (None of the universities or colleges in Washington State, where the KC-135 was built and where Boeing Commercial Airplanes is headquarter, ranks even in the Top 15 aerospace engineering schools.)
Airbus analysis
AirInsight’s Addison Schonland and Ernie Arvai have published a 54-page report about Airbus, A Market Analysis and Outlook. The report looks at each A3-Series program, including the forthcoming A350, and the A400M and KC-30.
A350/UK Funding
It’s a bit of old news this week, but as readers know the UK agreed to kick in GBP340m to fund the A350 development. Predictably, the US Trade Representative and Boeing objected. As long-time readers know, so do we. We don’t like government participation of any kind to corporations (it doesn’t matter what industry it is). Furthermore, at June 30, EADS had $9bn in cash vs. $5bn for Boeing.
Southwest loses Frontier bid
Southwest Airlines lost its bid to acquire Frontier Airlines in the bankruptcy auction this week. The bid was a long shot because its competition was Republic Holdings, a DIP lender to Frontier and the largest unsecured creditor. Read more
EADS short sales
A while back we published the short stock sales for Boeing. We’ve been trying to find short sales for EADS and the best we could do is find, through one of the US aerospace analysts, the EADS short sales in the USA, where the stock is traded Over The Counter (OTC).
The problem is that there are only an average of 230 trades per day, a volume that is so small as to be almost meaningless. Our analyst friend could not find any data in France about EADS short sales, but neither he nor we know if this is a function that the US data base used doesn’t find it or if by regulation this doesn’t have to be disclosed. If there are any Europeans who can fund the EADS short sales in France, Germany or any other market in which EADS stock is heavily traded, please send us the data on an Excel spreadsheet.
Meanwhile, here is the short sales record on the OTC market. Because the average daily trade is so small, the short interest ratios are huge.
Some good news for Boeing
Boeing could use some good news, following more revelations last week and this about the wing-body issues of the 787, and this is it.
Southwest Airlines plans a $113m bid for bankrupt Frontier Airlines in an auction next month. In a conference call, WN officials said that Frontier’s fleet of 51 Airbus A320 family members will be phased out in favor of Boeing 737NGs, probably over a two year period. (If WN wins the auction, government approvals will push consummation of the deal to the end of this year or into 1Q10.)
Boeing, IAM and No Strike
Dominic Gates of The Seattle Times has this story about the prospect of the IAM agreeing to a no-strike clause for Boeing.
The national head of the IAM is quoted as saying no way, no how. Although this is dismissed by an unidentified source as aggressive posturing by the national president, whether it is or isn’t, here’s an angle not covered in the story.
Boeing San Antonio seeking tanker work
Boeing’s defense unit in San Antonio, TX, is bidding on USAF KC-10 upgrade work. See this story.
For the conspiracy theorists and those in Seattle terrorized by the prospect Boeing Commercial Airplanes could locate the second 787 production line elsewhere–with San Antonio a prospective site–is this an effort by Boeing to beef up its airplane expertise in SAT? Is this an indication Boeing wants to beef up its presence in this non-unionized facility? Is this an effort to build its presence in a right-to-work state?
Is this more Perils of Pauline?
Boeing stock short sales history
The Boeing 787 could be the most profitable aircraft ever for Boeing, according to one aerospace analyst, but short-selling the stock is at its highest level ever.
Boeing stock short sales have fluctuated with the rise and fall of expectations on the 787 program. Here is the history since the airplane was launched in 2004 through July 15, 2009.
EADS announces earnings
We’ll provide analysis later today (PDT) but here is the 27 page earnings statement and accompanying presentation.
Update, 10:30 PDT: Here’s a synopsis of the EADS earnings call and our comments.
EADS Earnings Preview
EADS, parent of Airbus, announces its 2Q09-1H09 earnings July 28. Here are some topics that ought to be covered and questions analysts and reporters should ask: