Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- GE testing of giant GE9X engine aims for maturity at entry into service June 30, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 28. June 27, 2025
- Parent agency, FAA often at odds as politics outweighs safety June 26, 2025
- Electric Flight and the Ugly Duckling June 25, 2025
- Engine makers tout “Plan A” but have “Plan B” backups in R&D June 23, 2025
Boeing First Quarter Results: Tariffs, Return flights, $10.55bn asset sale
By Karl Sinclair
Boeing first quarter 2025 earnings report.
April 23, 2025, © Leeham News: As aircraft destined for delivery for airlines in China were turned around and returned to the US, the Boeing Company (BA) released 1Q2025 results today. Results were better than expected, with the loss lower than forecast and Free Cash Flow better than analysts forecast.
Revenue in the quarter was $19.5bn, the loss per share before charges was 49 cents and free cash flow, while negative at $2.3bn, was well below analyst projections.
Boeing ended the quarter with $23.7bn in cash and marketable securities, down from $26.3bn on Dec. 31. Debt was $53.6bn, down slightly from the end of last year. Boeing has an untapped $10bn line of credit.
The company said it still expects to return to a new production rate on the 737 MAX line of 38/mo. Production for the 787, how at 5/mo, is forecast to go to 7/mo this year. Both figures are lower than previously targeted (42/mo and 10/mo, respectively).
Yesterday, Boeing announced that it had reached a deal with Thoma Bravo – a software investment firm, to spin-off parts of the company for $10.55bn in cash. The deal includes Jeppesen, ForeFlight, AerData and OzRunways assets, and is expected to close by the end of 2025.
RTX Q1 2025 Earnings: GTF Talk Takes A Back Seat To Tariffs
By Chris Sloan
First quarter 2025 Earnings Report.
April 22, 2025, © Leeham News: The chorus of tariff-dominated earnings season calls continued as RTX took its turns at bat.
President and Chief Executive Christopher Calio aligned with other CEOs to demonstrate that aerospace is in sync with the presidential administration in correcting the trade deficit.
“We really believe that the aerospace and defense industry is really well positioned to meet what the administration’s north star in trade objectives are and that this industry has just been a shining example of that.” Calio cited RTX as a net exporter of goods exceeding imports by $12bn, offering a host of stats to build his case to reduce aerospace-related tariffs. “Our industrial base is largely located in the U S, including about 70% of our employees. On the supply chain side, about 65% of our product spend is with U.S. suppliers. Over the last five years, we’ve invested nearly $10 billion to enhance our domestic manufacturing footprint, with planned capabilities of $2 billion additional planned in 2025.”
Tariffs Tumult Takes Over GE Aerospace Q1 2025 Earnings Call
By Chris Sloan
GE Aerospace First Quarter 2025 earnings report.
April 22, 2025 © Leeham News: GE Aerospace’s above consensus beat for Q1 2025 earnings was overshadowed by the administration’s fluid reciprocal tariffs policy in its first earnings call.
“We support promoting free and fair trade that ensures the continued strength of the U.S. aerospace industry. As the U.S. administration engages in discussions with its trade partners, we’ll continue to advocate for an approach that reestablishes zero-for-zero tariffs in the aviation sector and ensures a level playing field for the U.S. aerospace industry,” said Larry Culp GE Aerospace CEO. “It’s easy to overlook the $75bn trade surplus the sector enjoys largely on the back of this terra-free regime that we’ve had since 1979,” adding that he has been in direct communication with senior people within the administration, including the president.
Boeing reports mixed results of latest employee survey, but middle management and officers remain key obstacles
By Scott Hamilton
Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg is working to improve the company’s culture. Credit: Boeing.
April 22, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing released an employee survey last week about safety, culture, and related items. Some areas recorded improvements, while others recorded declines.
But the survey data released did not address a serious problem Boeing has had for more than two decades and continues to have, despite efforts to improve safety, quality and culture: the “deep state” that exists within Boeing at the middle- and lower-officer levels that continue to practice intimidation and retaliation against some who attempt to point out problems in the areas listed above.
In interviews for LNA and my forthcoming book, The Rise and Fall of Boeing and the Way Back, it was clear that Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg’s initial rounds of housecleaning at the executive and some lower levels haven’t scratched the surface of the root of the company’s problems that have brought this icon to its proverbial knees.
Rise and Fall is essentially a sequel to my first book, Air Wars, The Global Combat Between Airbus and Boeing, published in September 2021. Rise and Fall is in final copy editing, with a target publishing date in September, the fourth anniversary of Air Wars’ publication.
Boeing’s release of its recent survey last week presents a contrast in contradictions.
Hopes for 1Q financial progress turns into bumpy ride for Boeing
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By Karl Sinclair
At its peak, there were 140 Boeing 737 MAXes stored across Washington state destined for China. The number is now around 40, and with the tariff war, there is no telling when these will be delivered. Photo in March 2023 in Moses Lake (WA) by Scott Hamilton.
April 21, 2025, © Leeham News: Just when it looked like The Boeing Company (BA) had a sensible recovery plan and leadership that understood the tasks at hand, along came that pocket of turbulent air, which upset a smooth flight.
Boeing announces its 1Q2025 financial numbers on Wednesday. What had been hoped to be a positive report is now overshadowed by the impact of worldwide tariffs, announced by President Donald Trump on April 2.
The latest industry news, which seems to change daily, is that the Trump Administration has levied a 245% tariff on China, after China had retaliated against tariffs of 145%. Last week, Beijing reportedly told its airlines to refuse delivery of all Boeing products.
In the interim, Trump walked back exorbitant tariff rates applied to nearly 100 nations, calculated with a flawed theory, focusing instead on hitting China hard and retaining a blanket 10% rate on the rest of the world.
There was a further retreat as tariffs on electronics were removed on iPhones and tablets, as pressures in the bond market forced a move.
Nothing in the aviation industry operates in a vacuum, as corporations begin to circle the wagons.
Delta Air Lines will refuse to take any Airbus aircraft that are tariffed, according to CEO Ed Bastian. Ryanair’s CEO Michael O’Leary said the same, regarding Boeing aircraft.
Howmet Aerospace, a Tier 1 supplier, is preparing to use “force majeure,” a legal term referring to an unexpected event which prevents a party from fulfilling contractual obligations, to get out of delivering parts.
According to equity research firm Bernstein, other suppliers are expected to invoke the clause as needed.
This is only 17 days after Trump’s much-heralded “Liberation Day.”
Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 18.
By Bjorn Fehrm
April 18, 2025, ©. Leeham News: We do a Corner series about the state of developments to improve the emission situation for Air Transport. We try to understand why development has been slow.
We examine the non-CO2 effects of Air Transport that contribute to global warming. Over the last weeks, we have looked at contrails, which have the largest impact on global warming, larger than CO2, Figure 1.
NOx is a smaller contributor, but it contributes about 20% of the total to Global Warming.
Figure 1. A summary of the CO2 and non-CO2 Effective Radiative Forcing (ERF) contributions from Air Transport. Source: The report “The contribution of global aviation to anthropogenic climate forcing for 2000-2018” by Lee et al. (2021).
Natilus: Composite BWB, entry-into-service by 2029, 570 on order
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By Karl Sinclair
April 17, 2025, © Leeham News: California-based Natilus is on target to begin delivering its first aircraft for service in 2029, a Blended Wing Body (BWB) turboprop cargo aircraft, according to CEO Aleksey Matyushev.
The pusher-type cargo aircraft Kona will soon be followed by a larger turbofan passenger version, the Horizon, in the early 2030s.
Matyushev, an aeronautical engineer previously the lead aerodynamicist at Piper Aircraft, sat down with LNA to discuss timelines, aircraft production, engineering challenges, and the powerplant options that Natilus will use.
Natilus designed the BWB to fit within current airport gate footprints. Credit: Natilus.
China bans Boeing, US parts imports in tariff war
April 15, 2025, © Leeham News: It was inevitable: China has banned its airlines from accepting deliveries of Boeing airplanes.
The move is in retaliation against President Donald Trump’s boosting tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%. Beijing placed retaliatory tariffs on US goods to 125%. During the first Trump administration, the president placed tariffs of 25% on Chinese goods imported to the US. Beijing has allowed delivery of very few Boeing jets since then.
Illustration of many of the systems and components COMAC sources for its C919 jet. The smaller C909 regional jet is similarly sourced. Credit: Airframer.com.
The move once more blocks Boeing from the world’s second biggest aviation trade market. Additionally, Beijing blocked the import of US-made parts, according to Bloomberg News, which first reported the actions.
Boeing welcomes COMAC competition as Asia-Pacific demand soars
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By Leeham News Team
April 15, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing sees long-term growth potential in the Asia-Pacific commercial market, but the company also acknowledges that China’s domestically produced COMAC C919 poses a credible challenge in the single-aisle segment—particularly in China and potentially in the broader region over time.
With China’s state-backed aerospace ambitions gaining momentum, the U.S. manufacturer faces a new challenge threatening to unbalance the traditional duopoly with Airbus.
According to Boeing’s 2024 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), Southeast Asia will require more than 4,700 new aircraft over the next 20 years. About 80% of this demand will be for single-aisle aircraft—a space Boeing would ordinarily seek to dominate with its 737 MAX family.
COMAC may still have work to do to gain credibility for the C919 inside and outside China, but its short-medium-range airliner is proving popular in its domestic market (Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines are current operators). The planemaker is now seeking customers elsewhere in the region, including Indonesia, Cambodia, and Kazakhstan. How potential U.S. tariffs will alter airline customer decision-making between Boeing and its rivals remains to be seen.
Speaking to LNA as the Routes Asia forum got underway, Dave Schulte, managing director of Boeing Commercial Marketing for Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, and Oceania, said he welcomed the contest for supremacy.
“Competition is always good for the aviation industry,” Schulte said when asked about the impact of COMAC on Boeing’s plans in the region. “It makes everyone in the industry invest in better technologies and find solutions to meet evolving customer needs.
“In the future, airlines will need to make longer-term fleet decisions that support growth and profitability, while providing competitive fares and service levels to the public.
“To achieve this goal, airlines across the region and globally evaluate airplanes based on performance capabilities, comfort level for passengers, economics, and more.” Read more
How good is the C929?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
April 14, 2025, © Leeham News: The COMAC C919 is finding its first customers outside China. At the same time as COMAC has started work on shorter and longer versions of the C919, work on a widebody C929 has been going on for the last 14 years.
If the development of more family members for the single aisle C919 is straightforward, the widebody C929 development has presented several challenges.
Figure 1. The COMAC C929 widebody aircraft. Source: COMAC.
Summary:
- The C929 has been in development since 2011.
- The project was first delayed by Russia-China relations and recently by increasing tensions between China and the West.
- The latest problems are around the engines, as Western engines have become politically impossible.
Read more