Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Certifications of MAX 7 and 10 may take hit from 737-9 grounding
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By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 22, 2024, © Leeham News: The grounding of the Boeing 737-9 MAX is likely to delay certification of the 737-7 and 737-10, customers fear.
At a minimum, certification of the 737-7 is likely to shift by months, customers suggest. Certification of the MAX 7 has been repeatedly shifting. Boeing hoped that certification would be achieved in 2022 or 2023. It’s now 2024. In December, Boeing asked the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for an exemption to safety standards for a deicing of the leading edge of the composite engine nacelle. There already was opposition from some pilot unions to this request. Now, with the Jan. 5 grounding of the MAX 9 due to the Alaska Airlines Flight 1282 decompression, some believe this exemption won’t be granted.
Flight testing for the MAX 7 is all but done. Boeing hoped to deliver the first MAX 7s to launch customer Southwest Airlines this year.
Flight testing for the MAX 10 is in its early stages. Certification processes were suspended during the MAX grounding, which ended in November 2020. Testing has been slow since because there are only a few MAX 10s available for testing, and due to the slow certification process for the MAX 7. One MAX 10 customer fears certification will be delayed 6-12 months. This would shift deliveries from early 2025 to later in the year or into 2026.
Outlook 2024: Milestone year for alternative energy development
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By Scott Hamilton and Bjorn Fehrm
Jan. 18, 2024, © Leeham News: Twenty twenty four is 10 years after the Sustainable Aircraft discussions started when Airbus flew its battery-powered E-Fan before the world’s OEMs and press in July 2014 at the Farnborough Air Show.
The time that has passed is longer than the normal development time for a new aircraft, and what have the hundreds of projects that started in the wake of the E-Fan achieved? We have one new two-seat trainer, the Pipistrel Velis Electro, in production, but not much else.
A typical urban air mobility vehicle concept.
There has been no lack of electric airplane project announcements, one more fanciful than the other. Operational ranges and economics that will enable the replacement of the typical regional turboprops have been presented, but the two functional demonstrators we have in the air that go beyond nine seats are hydrogen fuel cell aircraft, not battery-electric or hybrid electric.
We have hybrid five and nine-seat commuters flying in prototypes, and a couple of hybrids will start production during the year. These will reach the market in 2025 or 2026, but how operationally viable these is still not clear. But beyond nine seats, there are only plans, no projects that plan to fly prototypes this year or next.
The one-battery electric project, Eviation Alice, flew once, then packed up, declaring we needed better batteries. It’s clear the job of exchanging the hydrocarbon combustion engine for aircraft is much harder than thought. The problem is that aircraft are supposed to fly for hours, and the energy density of normal fuel is still 50 times higher than for batteries.
Outlook 2024: Can ATR finally achieve its production target?
By Judson Rollins
Jan. 15, 2024, © Leeham News: For the second year in a row, ATR fell short of its stated production targets.
ATR delivered just 25 new aircraft in 2022 and 35 in 2023. The latter was five short of its stated target. In early 2023, the manufacturer said supply chain and staffing shortages were the two main reasons for its 2022 shortfall. It has not yet discussed what went wrong last year.
At last year’s Paris Air Show, ATR said it wants to deliver 80 aircraft per year by 2026. However, this seems unrealistic given the OEM’s current order book of 176 aircraft, according to recent data viewed by LNA.
ATR STOL test aircraft. Source: v1Images.com.
Summary
- Turboprop demand forecasts seem questionable.
- ATR is delaying its timeline for a new eco turboprop.
- Progress continues on a future STOL variant.
Managing supply chain stress continues
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By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 9, 2024, © Leeham News: The COVID-19 pandemic impact on aerospace and its supply chain was deep and long lasting. The airframe and engine manufacturers haven’t fully recovered. Part of the reason is that the supply chain hasn’t fully recovered, either.
LNA attended the Aviation Forum in Hamburg, Germany, last month. On the sidelines of the event, we met with Jurgen Westermeier, the chief procurement officer for Airbus. We discussed the supply chain and other issues. The following is a transcript of this interview. It has been edited for space and clarity.
Related Story:
Outlook 2024: Embraer’s continued recovery
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By Bjorn Fehrm
January 8, 2024, © Leeham News: Embraer was hit by a double whammy before and during COVID. The non-closure of the merger of Boeing’s and Embraer’s Commercial Aircraft Divisions and the halving of its E-Jet deliveries during COVID. The year that passed marked the recovery from the extra cost and effort of the non-merger and an increase in E-Jet deliveries and orders.
It was also a progress year for the EVE eVTOL venture, with Embraer finalizing design and starting prototype production. Despite the EVE lagging behind other programs by about a year, the customers believe it’s one the most viable programs. Eve doubles the preorders of the nearest competitors.
The past year will also be seen as the break-trough year for the KC-390, Embraer’s bet to replace the venerable Lockheed-Martin C-130 military airlifter. The customer list went from three to five, with more country air forces in serious negotiations for the KC-390.
Summary:
- The E-Jets are trending back to normal volumes with better margins.
- EVE is the best-selling eVTOL, as operators trust Embraer’s knowledge and support.
- The KC-390 is on its way to capture a big slice of the C-130 Hercules replacement marker.
Outlook 2024: Boeing needs a boring year in 2024
By Dan Catchpole
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Jan. 4, 2024 © Leeham News: Boeing’s priorities in 2024 are clear: get the job done on time and without drama, and don’t cause any scandals. In short, it needs a boring year. However, to do that, the aerospace giant has to overcome several obstacles.
Boeing Commercial Airplanes has to increase production rate goals, sign a new labor contract and help suppliers along. That means going against Boeing management’s cultural predilection for extracting concessions from unions and contractors.
Defense is a mess, and there’s little reason to think it will improve much this year. Several fixed-cost programs are bleeding money. Boeing is competing for three major United States Department of Defense programs, but it is not favored to win any of them. This year, leadership is expected to focus on controlling costs.
A new position of executive vice president and chief operating officer for The Boeing Co. was created last month. Stephanie Pope, previously CEO of Boeing Global Services, was named to fill this slot. She’s an unknown to some customers and hasn’t run a company approaching the size of Boeing. She’ll have to prove herself in this new position of greater responsibilities than she’s ever had.
Related Articles
- Boeing files for permits to increase capacity of Charleston 787 plant to produce 14 a month. Charleston Post and Courier.
- Charleston has room to increase 787 production. LNA, November 2020.
- 2024 will be key year for Boeing labor relations. LNA, November 2020.
Summary
- BCA has to smoothly increase production rates.
- Sign a new contract with Machinists.
- Staunch the bleeding at Boeing Defense, Space and Security.
Outlook 2024: European airline consolidation
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By Gordon Smith
January 3, 2024, © Leeham News: Consolidation is certainly in the air. Even before the shock announcement on December 3 that Hawaiian and Alaska are planning to tie the knot, the industry was gripped by the ‘will-they, won’t they’ saga of the proposed JetBlue and Spirit deal.
Although it’s US carriers that have been making headlines, the European airline market is experiencing its own flurry of mergers and acquisitions. This is a topic LNA covered at length pre-pandemic (Our backgrounder is available here).
At the time of this writing, big changes are happening at three of the continent’s best-known flag carriers. Significant shareholdings in ITA Airways (formerly Alitalia), TAP Air Portugal, and SAS Scandinavian Airlines are changing hands, with Europe’s aviation supergroups spying an opportunity to expand their respective empires.
Tapping into the latest data provided to LNA from aviation data analysts Cirium, we can get a better understanding of what these changes could mean for existing fleets and upcoming airliner deliveries.
Outlook 2024: Expectations growing at Airbus
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By Gordon Smith
January 2, 2024, © Leeham News: Many businesses start to wind down operations as the holiday season approaches – but for the big OEMs, the year-end usually means a sprint finish. Airbus is no exception.
Speaking to investors in early November, CEO Guillaume Faury reconfirmed the company’s earnings target for 2023 and sounded optimistic about the prospect of meeting its delivery goal of “around 720” aircraft for the calendar year: “We think we are well-placed to deliver around 161 planes to fulfill the guidance. For those deliveries, we obviously have a high degree of visibility on parts, including engines,” he said.
Although the official tally for 2023 is not likely to be published until next week, the latest figures from November offer valuable insight into progress towards the goal. In a December 5 update, the OEM revealed that it delivered 64 aircraft during the previous month, bringing the year-to-date total to 623 examples. This left 97 units to be handed over before the start of 2024.
Re-engining the Boeing 767, Part 3
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By Bjorn Fehrm
December 21, 2023, © Leeham News: We are looking at a re-engine of the 767, a move that Boeing is considering to avoid a production stop after 2027. The present 767 engines don’t pass emission regulations introduced by the FAA, EASA, and other regulators for production and delivery beyond 2027.
We looked at what airframe modifications are necessary to house more efficient engines last week; now, we use our Aircraft Performance and Cost model to look at the economics of the original 767 versus a re-engined one.
Summary:
- New, more environmentally friendly engines give the 767 better fuel economics.
- The Cash Operating Costs improvement is affected by higher engine maintenance costs and higher underway and airport fees as a re-engined 767 is a heavier aircraft.
Embraer’s EVE brings some reality to UAM/eVTOL sector
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By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 18, 2023, © Leeham News: There are hundreds of “alternative energy” concepts under study for commercial aviation and a new air taxi industry. Most will fail to prove technically feasible or obtain the funding required to successfully bring the ideas to market and production.
A few concepts are based on reality. EVE is one of them.
EVE is an air taxi concept floated by principal owner Embraer.
Embraer’s EVE urban air mobility vehicle. Credit: EVE.
During a media briefing last month, Johann Bordais, EVE’s CEO, said the Urban Air Mobility (UAM) concept for EVE is a spin-off from an idea Embraer had in 2017. EVE was later spun off, while Embraer retains a majority stake.
“We became independent because we understand that we need to be agile, and go faster because the air mobility revolution was happening already,” Bordais said. “We needed to get moving. We also needed to get some funds and that’s why we also had a SPAC and we merged with Zanite.” SPAC stands for Special Purpose Acquisition Company.
EVE went public on May 10, 2022. With added funding, EVE began production earlier this year of the prototype.
Bordais said Embraer’s 54 years of legacy sets EVE apart from other concepts.
“It’s about knowing what we’re talking about. It’s not about just having prototypes flying around the cities. It’s about the whole ecosystem,” he said. “It’s about also the know-how.”