Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing’s 737 North Line and the Everett factory: in transition now June 9, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 25. June 6, 2025
- New RISE powerplant benefits from decades of GE research and development June 5, 2025
- Engine makers emphasizing durability, reliability June 4, 2025
- Boeing CEO: Lessons learned are key to certification of 737-7/10 and 777X June 2, 2025
Boeing repositions two 787s, probe continues
Update, Nov. 17, 4:30PM PST:
This article from Europe talks about efforts by Safran group to acquire Zodiac, which is a supplier on the Boeing 787. The article refers to possible interest (or lack of it, actually) by Hamilton Sundstrand as a potential bidder for Zodiac and that Zodiac is a competitor to Sundstrand.
As it happens, a company called ECE is subcontracted by Sundstrand on the P100 control panel on the 787, where the fire originated on ZA002. ECE is a subsidiary of–Zodiac.
Update, Nov. 17, 9:00 AM PST:
Heidi Wood, the aerospace analyst at Morgan Stanley, issued this brief note today:
What’s new: Yesterday, Boeing issued a press release update on the 787 highlighting the ongoing investigation into the test flight fire incident. While test plane ZA002 remains in Texas, 2 other 787s (ZA001 & ZA005) have returned to Seattle until a resolution can be determined.
What Does This Mean? Our read-between-the-lines interpretation of the press release:
(1)Boeing: “Boeing has established a plan to fly two aircraft back to Seattle.” “No decision has been reached on when flight testing will resume.”
Translation: The other planes (may) have an issue too. Which suggests 2 things: 1) it’s unlikely flight tests will resume shortly (days, a week), 2) bringing test planes back means it’s not de facto a quick fix. We estimate flight test resumption in late December, early 2011.
(2)Boeing: “The incident demonstrated many aspects of the safety and redundancy in the 787 design, which ensure that if events such as these occur, the airplane can continue safe flight and landing”.
Translation: The vagueness alerts us, as it sidesteps claiming the systems all worked. This tells us the multiple redundancies may not have performed as they should have, which dovetails with what our sources have been asserting. We’re impressed by the honest admission; we believe this is an FAA chief concern.
(3)Boeing: “We must complete the investigation and assess whether any design changes are necessary.”
Translation: Design changes are necessary. Questions arising about software, hardware redesign extend the horizon & could push first delivery to 2012.
(4)Boeing: “Until that time, BA cannot comment on the potential impact…on the…program schedule.”
Translation: Delay ahead. They just don’t know how extensive yet to set a new, credible target. When they do, they’ll officially announce the next delay.
Original Post:
Boeing just issued this update on the 787 program:
EVERETT, Wash., Nov. 16, 2010 – While the investigation into the incident onboard 787 Dreamliner ZA002 continues, Boeing has established a plan to fly two other aircraft, ZA001 and ZA005, back to Seattle from Rapid City, S.D., and Victorville, Calif. The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration has reviewed and approved the plans.
ZA001 was undergoing refueling in South Dakota when the incident on ZA002 occurred and the company decided to forgo additional flights. ZA005 was on remote deployment for testing in California.
Tanker shortage cancels Red Flag exercise
Update, Nov. 17: EADS now is predicting the tanker contract award will slip to next year. This is entirely consistent with what we have been hearing (first quarter) and what we understand Boeing believes as well.
Original Post:
A shortage of KC-135 refueling tankers, because of the high demand in Afghanistan and Iraq, forced the Air Force to cancel Red Flag, an annual exercise.
The Army Times first reported this event November 9. Strategy Page has an analysis about the aging tanker issue.
Strategy Page has a couple of obvious errors in its analysis, but the overarching point is well taken.
This illustrates the need for aerial tankers and how warfighting capability can be affected by a shortage of tankers. While the exercise was not canceled due to aging tankers, but rather competing interests, the point is nonetheless made.
Updates on Airbus, Boeing events
Aviation Week has this long and detailed story about the Airbus A380/Qantas engine failure.
Qantas A380s remain grounded indefinitely.
KING 5 (NBC, Seattle) has this account of the Boeing 787 fire.
KIRO TV (CBS, Seattle) has this item about the FAA and the 787’s certification tests.
Flightglobal reports an FAA pilot was at the controls when the 787 fire broke out.
Airbus has its challenges, too
While headlines have understandably been focused on Boeing this week, Airbus has its problems, too. The Qantas A380 Rolls-Royce Trent 900 engine uncontained failure continues to generate news stories. The QF 32 flight details still are emerging, and one–in an email we received today–gives a good example of “cascading failures” that can happen in an emergency.
Recall that the 787 ZA002 had a series of cascading failures following the fire in the electronics bay, the details of which have yet to be learned beyond some generalities. Here’s what we learned about the cascading failures associated with QF 32:
Another KC-X deadline passes
Today was supposed to be the day the KC-X contract was to get its go-ahead, but as has so often been the case, another deadline has come and gone.
The USAF suggests it will be done this fall, which is through December 20. We’ve previously written we believe the award will slip to the first quarter.
Meantime, here is an interesting story on the KC-X saga. Hat-tip to Flightglobal’s Steve Trimble for spotting this one.
Assessing 787 in-flight fire, Part 2
Dominic Gates of The Seattle Times has this interview with 787 program head Scott Fancher about the in-flight fire incident Tuesday of 787 ZA002.
Fancher’s interview is clearly an effort to see the bright side of an event that shouldn’t have happened and which potentially will have serious, adverse affects on Boeing. The headlines are justifiably worrisome and the Wall Street analysts are weighing in with negative reports.
Many will see Fancher’s comments as trying to make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear, but in fact in an interview we did yesterday (Nov. 10) with KOMO Radio (Seattle), we noted there actually is a silver lining in the clouds that have gathered over Boeing.
Assessing 787 in-flight fire
There are plenty of news stories accessible through Google, so we won’t recap the incident here.
Here’s what we can add to the story at this time (06:30 AM PST, Nov. 10); we’ll update as needed.
Boeing says 787 deliveries will take longer than expected
Robert Stallard, aerospace analyst for RBC Capital Markets, met with Boeing execs and learned that 787 deliveries will take longer than expected, seemingly confirming reports last week from Flightblogger and Aviation Week.
Dominic Gates published this story Tuesday–just a short time before the 787 in-flight fire incident.
GEnx customers hit in 787 rescheduling
Here is a story we did for Commercial Aviation Online Tuesday, before the 787 in-flight fire.
Customers who ordered the GEnx engines are among those affected by the latest, potential Boeing 787 delivery rescheduling first revealed by CAO‘s affiliate Flightblogger, a review of Boeing’s backlog reveals.
Japan Air Lines, Korean Air Lines (KAL) and Air India each have indicated deliveries could be several months later than originally planned. JAL is looking at an additional three month delay, KAL up to 10 months and Air India up to five months. Each is a GEnx customer.
BOC Aviation orders A320s, touts ‘investment value’
Here is a story we did last week for Commercial Aviation Online:
BOC Aviation and Airbus announced 3 November an order for 30 A320s, with the companies touting the “investment value” and residual value in a press release detailing the orders.
“The announcement from BOC Aviation is another vote of confidence in the long-term appeal of the A320 Family. It works well for the financial community based on its wide operator base, proven operating economics and strong residual values,” said John Leahy, Chief Operating Officer Customers, Airbus, is the press release.
“A320 Family aircraft are a good fit as they have proven economics and meet both our investment targets and our customers’ operating goals,” said BOC Aviation CEO Robert Martin in the press release.
The residual value of the A320 family has come under doubts from lessors, appraisers, airlines and financiers in response to the possibility that Airbus will proceed with the New Engine Option for the A320. Some lessors, notably AerCap and Aviation Capital Group, have publicly expressed concerns about the residual value impact of the A320 NEO on the A320 current generation (A320CG); AerCap early this year said it would not order more A320s until Airbus made a decision on NEO. AerCap has been an exclusive Airbus customer when it comes to new airplane orders.