Nov. 30, 2015, © Leeham Co.: One month to go to the end of 2015. What’s left to come?
- The first Boeing 737 MAX is rolling out of the factory Dec. 8. For reasons that defy obvious explanation, Boeing is low-keying this event. Only a few members of the press will be there with the employees. This is a Big Deal, yet Boeing isn’t making it one. Strange.
- The final race is on to wrap up orders by the end of the year. Airbus salesmen are scurrying around. So are Boeing salesmen. So are Embraer’s. Bombardier’s sales force is taking a targeted approach to sell its CSeries, but it’s unclear if there will be any deals announced by the end of this year. United Airlines is a big target, but there are some interesting goings-ons there (see below).
- It’s pretty clear Airbus will win the order race. Boeing is trailing far behind. At the beginning of the year, Boeing predicted sales-to-deliveries (Book:Bill) of one. More recently the tone changed to saying it would be close to one.
- Embraer is having another good year with its E-Jet sales.
China Southern, Spirit Airlines A319s going to United Airlines. Note the part-out destination for the Boeing 777-200ERs. Source: AerCap.
United Airlines to take more used A319s
It made news in aviation circles when, early this year, mega-lessor AerCap said it will lease 25 A319s currently operated by China Southern Airlines to United Airlines in the coming years.
What was completely missed until last week was a reveal in September that 17 more A319s, these operated by Spirit Airlines are also on their way to UAL. As with the China Southern planes, these are also owned by AerCap.
Unknown to anyone but the principals, of course, is what the lease rates will be. In general–and not related specifically to the United deal–people remark that Bombardier’s biggest competition for the CS300 is “$100,000” (per month) A319s and Boeing 737-700s.
Indeed, AerCap is placing 27 737-700s with Southwest Airlines that have been operated by Aerolineas Argentinas, Transaero, China Eastern Airlines and China Southern. Southwest has a long history of opportunistically acquiring used -700s (and before this era airplane, 737-300s) at the right price, whether by purchase or lease. (I’m not suggesting BBD had any chance of selling the CS300 to Southwest, but rather to illustrate the point.
- Delta Air Lines just announced it will refurbish and keep 14 Boeing 757s longer than expected. Failure to achieve a new pilot contract to support a new airplane order for Boeing 737-900ERs was given as the reason.