Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Rolls-Royce 2026 Outlook: It’s back in large engines; can it get back into the Single Aisle as well?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
January 29, 2026, © Leeham News: Rolls-Royce has posted a string of increasing profits over the last few years after a tough period that 
started in 2017, when its Trent 1000 engines on ANA’s Boeing 787s developed a turbine-corrosion problem, cutting time on wing to a fraction of what it should be. These turbine problems escalated into a global issue, affecting all Trent 1000-equipped 787s.
The Trent 1000 on Boeing’s 787 has since experienced a series of problems, beginning with the need to replace turbine blades, followed by compressor vibration that required replacing blades on the intermediate compressor. Engines must be removed from the wing to remove the turbine and compressor blades during engine overhaul, resulting in Rolls-Royce Trent-equipped 787s being grounded for periods.
The result has been a dwindling market share for the 787, with the competing engine OEM, GE, now claiming an 78% market share for its GEnx-1B engine, and charges to the business for the cost to fix the problems for the airlines.
The drama surrounding the 787 was not expected. The Rolls-Royce RB211-535 had been the best engine on the Boeing 757 (versus Pratt & Whitney’s PW2040), and on the Airbus A330, the Trent 700 has a dominant market share versus GE’s CF6 and Pratt & Whitney’s PW4000, as it offers solid performance and maturity.
To add to injury, a former management had decided that the Single Aisle market was too small a fish for Rolls-Royce and exited the cooperation with Pratt & Whitney for the A320/A321 V2500 in 2011. The aftermarket income from spares for the V2500 began to decline as the Trent 1000 kept 787s on the ground and COVID-19 hit. When COVID hit in 2020, Rolls-Royce struggled with losses because of these engine problems and strategic mistakes.
Pratt & Whitney builds for the future while wrestling with the present
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By Bjorn Fehrm and Charlotte Bailey
January 26, 2026, © Leeham News: Pratt & Whitney (PW) bet big on the geared turbofan to take it back to a sizeable position in the market’s largest airliner segment, the Single-Aisle. It spent more than 20 years to develop the fan gearbox, including functional demonstrator engines that flew on Airbus test aircraft to prove the technology.
The effort was a success; the gearbox in the Pratt & Whitney range of Geared TurboFans, GTFs, has worked perfectly. It achieved what was promised, a low fuel consumption, and has been rock-solid in its function.
Yet PW’s GTFs have had a range of problems since their introduction in 2016. Bent main shafts, combustors that burn through, bearings that fail. And on top, a huge call-back of engines, as a contaminated power metal process has produced compressor and turbine discs that risk failing before their on-engine life expires. The situation has caused over 600 Airbus A320 and A321neos with GTF engines to be grounded for engine replacements, if and when replacement discs are available.
The issues, stemming from the “business as usual” parts of the GTF, have led to write-offs of billions of dollars for PW’s mother RTX and to lost market share to the competing CFM LEAP engine on the Airbus A320/321neo series. But while this clouds the business of yesterday and today, Pratt & Whitney still has the clout to invest in the future. Being part of one of the World’s largest Defence and Aerospace Companies is an important part of the answer.
Figure 1. The Maeve MJ500 with the revolutionary Pratt & Whitney Canada Constant Volume Open Fan engine. Source: Maeve. Read more
Bjorn’s Corner: Faster aircraft development. Part 24. Post certification, Sustainment phase.
By Bjorn Fehrm and Henry Tam.
January 23, 2026, ©. Leeham News: We do a series about ideas on how the long development times for large airliners can be shortened. New projects talk about cutting development time and reaching certification and production faster than previous projects.
The series will discuss the typical development cycles for an FAA Part 25 aircraft, called a transport category aircraft, and what different ideas there are to reduce the development times.
We will use the Gantt plan in Figure 1 as a base for our discussions. We have looked at the preparation work around entry into service; now we talk about post-certification work and the support of the new airliner generating revenue flights for the airline customer.
Figure 1. A generic new Part 25 airliner development plan. Source: Leeham Co. Click to see better.
** Special thanks to Andrew Telesca for helping with this article **
Bjorn’s Corner: Faster aircraft development. Part 23. Preparing for Entry Into Service.
By Bjorn Fehrm and Henry Tam
January 16, 2026, ©. Leeham News: We do a series about ideas on how the long development times for large airliners can be shortened. New projects talk about cutting development time and reaching certification and production faster than previous projects.
The series will discuss the typical development cycles for an FAA Part 25 aircraft, called a transport category aircraft, and what different ideas there are to reduce the development times.
We will use the Gantt plan in Figure 1 as a base for our discussions. We have looked at the production preparations and the challenges of the serial production phase. Now we look a the preparation work around entry into service for our new airliner.
Figure 1. A generic new Part 25 airliner development plan. Source: Leeham Co. Click to see better.
Bjorn’s Corner: Faster aircraft development. Part 22. Serial Production.
By Bjorn Fehrm and Henry Tam.
January 9, 2026, ©. Leeham News: We do a series about ideas on how the long development times for large airliners can be shortened. New projects talk about cutting development time and reaching certification and production faster than previous projects.
The series will discuss the typical development cycles for an FAA Part 25 aircraft, called a transport category aircraft, and what different ideas there are to reduce the development times.
We will use the Gantt plan in Figure 1 as a base for our discussions. We have completed flight testing of the flight test aircraft and obtained a design Type Certificate (TC). We now examine the production preparations and the serial production phase.
Figure 1. A generic new Part 25 airliner development plan. Source: Leeham Co. Click to see better.
Bjorn’s Corner: Faster aircraft development. Part 21. Certification Implementation.
By Bjorn Fehrm and Henry Tam
December 19, 2025, ©. Leeham News: We do a series about ideas on how the long development times for large airliners can be shortened. New projects talk about cutting development time and reaching certification and production faster than previous projects.
The series will discuss the typical development cycles for an FAA Part 25 aircraft, called a transport category aircraft, and what different ideas there are to reduce the development times.
We will use the Gantt plan in Figure 1 as a base for our discussions. We have concluded the articles about flight tests with the aircraft. Now we revisit the Certification subject and look at how we can show compliance with requirements and work our way to a Type Certificate. We are at the end part of the Testing and Certification phase in our Program Plan in Figure 1.
Figure 1. A generic new Part 25 airliner development plan. Source: Leeham Co. Click to see better.
** Special thanks to Andrew Telesca for helping with this article **
The state of alternative propulsion aircraft? Part 5.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
December 18, 2025, © Leeham News: In our series about alternative propulsion aircraft, last week we looked at the energy consumption and range of a typical nine-seater battery-electric commuter aircraft using our Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM).
We could see that the useful range for this aircraft was short, even when using the full 19,000lb Maximum TakeOff Weight (MTOW) to give the battery the maximum size and using VFR flight rules. Under IFR flight rules, the commuter was not usable with available batteries this side of 2030.
Figure 1. Our battery-electric commuter was similar in design to the Tecnam P2012 nine-seater commuter. Source: Tecnam.
When a project discovers these constraints (which often happen several years into the project, as upstarts don’t have competent aircraft performance models that handle energy consumption for different phases of flight), they start looking at Hybrid architectures.
We do the same. Once again, our model will help us to predict performance, range, operational economics, and also production costs (as a hybrid is a more complex aircraft than a battery electric one).
Bjorn’s Corner: Faster aircraft development. Part 20. Flight Testing.
by Bjorn Fehrm and Henry Tam
December 12, 2025, ©. Leeham News: We do a series about ideas on how the long development times for large airliners can be shortened. New projects talk about cutting development time and reaching certification and production faster than previous projects.
The series will discuss the typical development cycles for an FAA Part 25 aircraft, called a transport category aircraft, and what different ideas there are to reduce the development times.
We will use the Gantt plan in Figure 1 as a base for our discussions. We have completed the articles on Prototype Manufacturing and Ground Vibration Tests (GVT). We now conduct the program’s flight tests with the manufactured test aircraft.
Figure 1. A generic new Part 25 airliner development plan. Source: Leeham Co. Click to see better.
Bjorn’s Corner: Faster aircraft development. Part 19. Flight Test Aircraft Assembly.
December 5, 2025, ©. Leeham News: We do a series on ways to shorten the long development times for large airliners. New projects aim to cut development time and achieve certification and production faster than previous projects.
The series will discuss the typical development cycles for an FAA Part 25 aircraft, called a transport category aircraft, and the different approaches to reducing development time.
We will use the Gantt plan in Figure 1 as a base for our discussions. We have exited the Detailed Design phase after conducting Critical Design Reviews, CDRs, and now enter into Prototype Manufacturing. After reviewing the acceptance and testing of the first parts and systems from suppliers, we now discuss putting together the first flight-test aircraft.
Figure 1. A generic new Part 25 airliner development plan. Source: Leeham Co. Click to see better.
** Special thanks to Ron Everlove for helping with this article **
The state of alternative propulsion aircraft? Part 4.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
December 4, 2025, © Leeham News: In our series about alternative propulsion aircraft, last week we looked at the aircraft batteries. These are heavy components with very low energy capacity per unit weight.
To illustrate the kind of aircraft-level challenges the batteries pose, we are using our Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM) to design a typical alternative-propulsion battery-electric aircraft and then fly it on typical missions.
The aircraft is similar in size to a 9-seat Tecnam P2012 commuter (Figure 1) but optimised for Battery-Electric propulsion.
Figure 1. The Tecnam P2012 nine-seater commuter. Source: Tecnam.
The APCM will give us the airframe-level energy consumption for each phase of the flight. Subsequently, we can add the different losses in the propulsion system to determine the energy consumed from the battery and the endurance/range it offers, dependent on VFR or IFR mission reserves.