Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
COMAC struggled in 2025; 2026 won’t be much better
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By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 15, 2026, © Leeham News: COMAC had a rough year in 2025. It’s unlikely that this year will be much better.
COMAC is China’s state-owned commercial aerospace company. It builds the C909 regional jet (formerly known as the AVIC ARJ21; AVIC is now part of COMAC). The C909 is a Douglas DC-9-10 look-alike with GE CF-34 engines, the same powerplant that’s on the Mitsubishi CRJ and Embraer E1 E-Jets.
The C909 is not a particularly commercially competitive airplane to the CRJ or E1, but that wasn’t the point of the aircraft. The C909 is China’s truly first effort to establish a commercial jet airliner industry after a false start decades ago with the Y-10, a Boeing 707 clone. China developed turboprop airliners with limited success.
COMAC also builds the C919 mainline jet. The C919 is a competitor with the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737-8. This jet is China’s next step in developing a commercial airliner industry. More than 1,000 orders have been placed. All but a handful are orders dictated by the central government to China’s airlines and lessors.
Nevertheless, an analysis of the backlog of the 125-240 seat single aisle sector gives the C919 about a 7% share. With China evolving eventually into the single largest global market, this captive market share is evolving into a force to be reckoned with.
COMAC hoped to deliver 75 C919s last year. Hurt by Western sanctions for China’s support of Russia in the Ukraine War and by trade sanctions imposed by the Trump and Biden administrations, COMAC reduced the delivery forecast to 25. In reality, C919 deliveries last year fell to about 13, the same as in 2024. COMAC outlined its production goals in March; they are unrealistic.
Boeing reports best airliner delivery year since 2018
By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 13, 2026, © Leeham News: Boeing delivered 600 airliners last year, its best year since 2018—the last normal year before the 737 MAX grounding began in March 2020. In 2018, Boeing delivered 813 airliners.
The MAX grounding lasted 21 months. This was followed by the COVID-19 pandemic beginning in April 2020, lasting about two years. In October 2020, deliveries of most 787s were suspended due to a production flaw. From September to November in 2024, Boeing’s assembly workforce, the IAM 751, went on strike for 53 days, halting all deliveries.
Boeing, others up SAF plans in Washington State
Credit: Boeing.
Announced on Thursday at Boeing Future of Flight, the museum located adjacent to Boeing’s Everett production facility, the Cascadia Sustainable Aviation Accelerator (CSAA) aims to ramp the region’s SAF production capacity to one billion gallons per year by 2035.
Boeing is on its way back, but there’s a long way to go
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By Scott Hamilton and Karl Sinclair
Jan. 8, 2026, © Leeham News: Boeing is on its way back.
Not to its glory days of engineering prowess. This won’t happen until Boeing develops a new airplane, and just how advanced it will be.
Boeing hopes the long-delay certification of the 737-7 MAX will occur this year. Launch customer Southwest Airlines looks for entry into service in 2027. Credit: Boeing.
But it’s on its way back to returning to a profitable, reliable company that puts safety and quality first.
That said, there is still a long way to go. By LNA’s estimation, it will be well into the next decade before Boeing’s balance sheet bears any resemblance to its 2018 financial picture of solid profits and low debt. That was the last year before Boeing entered what became six years of one crisis after another. Boeing ended 2018 with a “mere” $10bn in long-term debt. Revenues hit $101bn with an operating profit of $10.4bn and operating cash flow of $15.3bn.
Boeing ended the third quarter last year with more than $50bn in long-term debt, and near-breakeven if slight positive cash flow. Full-year 2025 results will be announced at the end of this month.
Boeing Commercial Airplanes in 2018 produced about 60% of the company’s revenues.
This year will build on Boeing’s momentum from last year. As always, especially in Boeing’s case, any Outlook is contingent on things outside of the company’s control upsetting the business.
Here’s how LNA sees the 2026 Outlook for Boeing.
Boeing captures 33% of single-aisle sector, maintains big lead for wide-bodies
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By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 2, 2026, © Leeham News: Boeing’s 2011 decision to launch another derivative of the 737, a slow response to the Airbus A321neo, and the series of crises involving the 737 MAX beginning on March 10, 2019, caused a dramatic drop in market share that places Boeing at a distant No. 2 to Airbus.
The total program orders give Airbus a 54% share of the market for the A320neo family to Boeing’s 33% for the MAX. Adding the A220 into Airbus’ share, the European company has captured 58% of the single aisle market, an analysis of data from the companies as of Dec. 5 reveals.
China’s COMAC C919 captures 7% of the single-aisle market, according to data analyzed from Cirium and other sources. Embraer, with its two-class 100-seat E190-E2 and 120-seat E195-E2, captures a mere 2% of the 100-240 seat sector.
Russia’s Sukhoi MC-21 is not included in this analysis because the market is closed to Airbus, Boeing, and Embraer due to international sanctions on Russia due to the Ukraine war.
“Rise and Fall of Boeing and the Way Back” picked by Royal Aeronautical Society as a top book for Christmas
By Scott Hamilton
My book, “The Rise and Fall of Boeing and the Way Back”, has been named as one of its top picks of aviation books by the Royal Aeronautical Society for Christmas 2025.
“Following on from his previous Air Wars, which looked at Airbus vs Boeing rivalry, aviation journalist and analyst Scott Hamilton brings commercial aerospace up to date with a look at the rollercoaster ride that has been Boeing’s fortunes over recent years. How did a brand that personified American engineering excellence become so distrusted by customers, politicians, and even the general public? And more important – what are the ways back from this?” The RAS wrote.
This is the second time one of my books has been so named. (I’ve only written two books.) The first, “Air Wars, the Global Combat Between Airbus and Boeing”, was chosen when it was published in 2021.
“Rise and Fall” continues the story begun with “Air Wars.”
“Rise and Fall” may be purchased here.
“Air Wars” may be purchased here.
Mitigating mounting pressures in the global supply chain
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By Charlotte Bailey
Michael Haidinger, president of Boeing Germany. Credit: Leeham News, Charlotte Bailey.
Dec. 22, 2025, © Leeham News, Hamburg: “In today’s aerospace environment, which is marked by workforce challenges, evolving technologies, geopolitical risk, financial pressures, and industry consolidation, our supply chain deserves not just attention but requires true partnership,” says Dr. Michael Haidinger, president of Boeing Germany, Central and Eastern Europe.
“Over the last few years, [the global supply chain] has carried a tremendous load.”
Speaking at December 2025’s Aviation Forum in Hamburg, Haidinger acknowledged that the pressures present throughout a complex ecosystem continue to evolve. Recognizing that “integrating stability across the aerospace value chain is essentially the foundation of our long-term success,” the industry is nevertheless having to place renewed focus on inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainty as it looks to bolster its ongoing resilience.
For Boeing, this includes “working more transparently than ever with [its] suppliers” through a monthly supplier brief, sharing details of production plans, key performance indicators, and any changes that could impact planned production. “Transparency builds trust, and trust brings alignment,” he urged.
Boeing seeks ICAO exemption for 777-200LRF to offset 777-8F delays, MD-11F grounding
Dec. 19, 4:15pm CST: Updated with Boeing comment.
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 19, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing has asked the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to grant an exemption to the 2017 ICAO fuel efficiency rules that mean an end to production of the 777-200LRF freighter on Dec. 31, 2027.
Boeing seeks approval by May 1 next year.
“The requested relief will allow Boeing to meet anticipated customer demand and support the substantial public interest in the sustained transportation of air cargo prior to the 777-8F entering service. This petition therefore requests exemption of a total quantity of 35 777F airplanes until achievement of 777-8F first delivery and entry into service,” Boeing wrote in its filing today with the FAA.
FedEx is among the large users of the Boeing 777F. The airplane is scheduled to go out of production on Dec. 31, 2027, due to international regulations. Boeing has asked for an exemption to continue production. Credit: Fed Ex.
“Additional 777Fs are needed after January 1, 2028, to maintain an uninterrupted supply of large freighters to the market prior to the introduction of the 777-8F,” Boeing wrote. The company asked the FAA to extend the exemption outside the US.
Continued certification delays for the new generation 777X, including the 777-8F freighter, are the reason. Certification has been moved to a goal of 2026. Entry into service (EIS) of the passenger 777-9, the lead of the family, is now planned for 2027. EIS for the 777-8F has a goal of 2029, but some customers already believe this won’t happen until 2030. EIS of the passenger 777-8 follows the freighter by a year.
The 777-9 was supposed to enter service in 1Q2020, with the 777-8P two years later and the freighter two years after that. EIS for the freighter was moved up to be second once the FAA agreed to adopt the 2017 ICAO emission standards. The standards mean the end of production of the Boeing 767-300ERF and the 777-200LRF by the end of 2027.
Supply chain continues to bedevil Airbus, Boeing
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By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 8, 2025, © Leeham News: Supply chain difficulties continue to bedevil Airbus and Boeing deliveries this year.
Embraer also has had some impact from supply chain disruptions, but at a much lower rate.
November deliveries by Airbus and Boeing are lower than in September and October. Boeing delivered 53 and 55 aircraft, respectively—but only 42 in November.
Airbus and Boeing are struggling to meet production goals because the supply chain still can’t delivery parts and engines on time. In some cases, quality also is a factor. Photo Credit: Airbus.
Airbus delivered 78 aircraft in October and 73 in September. Defective panels delivered by a supplier, which Airbus did not identify, for the A320 family were discovered, impacting total November deliveries (72) and anticipated December deliveries. Airbus now expects to deliver 790 aircraft this year compared with its original guidance of 823. Airbus delivered 84 aircraft in November last year. Airbus needs to deliver 133 aircraft this month to meet its revised, lower goal.
In addition, delays in receiving interiors, mainly from Collins and Safran but also from others, caused Airbus and Boeing to delay widebody deliveries. Continuing shortages of engines from Pratt & Whitney and CFM (GE and Safran) for the GTF and LEAP impacted Airbus, Boeing and Embraer. PW continues to divert new production GTFs to AOG (Aircraft on Ground) A220s, A320s and E-Jets. A strike at GE interrupted CFM LEAP deliveries.
Airbus and Boeing want to increase production rates next year and in following years. The supply chain is the driving factor.
Aerospace analyst Ken Herbert from RBC Capital Markets raises some caution from the supply chain in his survey for the second half of 2025. In a report issued on Dec. 4, Herbert wrote, “Just when confidence in the aerospace OE outlook appears to have inflected, we get a reminder from Airbus (ELAC software, metal fuselage panel quality escape) that the industry is still dependent on a relatively fragile supply chain, and we believe the supply chain will remain part of the A&D narrative for the foreseeable future.”
Boeing CFO Jay Malave: Priorities are debt, investments, then shareholders
By Karl Sinclair
Dec. 3, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing’s chief financial officer outlined the priorities for the use of cash going forward, and it reaffirms what has been obvious but largely unstated: debt reduction is the top priority.
Speaking at the UBS Global Industrials and Transportation Conference, The Boeing Company’s (BA) new Chief Financial Officer (CFO) Jay Malave reiterated the corporation’s prudent position on where Free Cash Flow (FCF) was going to be spent.
“I think that between the balance that we have today, the cash flow that we’re going to be generating, that will give us plenty of optionality to pay down the debt, to invest in the future, and start thinking at the right time about investor returns,” Malave said.
Boeing CFO Jay Malave. Source: Boeing.
This is quite a departure from the position of the previous CFO Greg Smith, who once reported that Boeing was committed to returning 100% of FCF to investors. It is very much in line with the new culture that CEO Kelly Orberg is attempting to instill in the company.