Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
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Analysis: What went wrong in Wichita for Spirit and IAM
Striking members of Machinists Union Local Lodge 839 outside the Spirit AeroSystems plant in Wichita, Kans./Photo by The Wichita Eagle
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By Bryan Corliss
UPDATE: The two sides will continue talks with a federal mediator on Monday. In a statement, Spirit AeroSystems CEO Tom Gentile said the negotiating teams “have been working hard and making good progress.”
“We will continue discussions this week and remain committed to a timely resolution on a fair and competitive contract that addresses the priorities of our employees and other stakeholders,” he said.
Local 839 negotiators told their members that “with the mediator’s help, we are progressing toward getting another offer to the membership for consideration.”
June 26, 2023, © Leeham News – Strikers in Wichita broiled under a hot summer sun this weekend, as the International Association of Machinists’ strike against Spirit AeroSystems got under way.
The good news, for everyone who’s watching in the North American aerospace industry, is that the two sides resumed talks Saturday, with the help of a U.S. federal mediator.
This walk-out caught a lot of us by surprise. Insiders I talked with before the vote didn’t expect a strike. Equity analysts confidently projected the risk of strike as “very low.” Spirit itself must have been confident, because it sent much of its senior leadership team to Paris for the air show.
So what went wrong? Clearly both Spirit management and the union’s negotiating team misread the mood, and badly.
We took a deep dive into what workers are saying on social media about the contract. As we’ve noted in the past, social media posts aren’t the same as scientific surveys, but they do give some insight into the mood in Wichita.
And what they reveal is that there was a lot of frustration around some specific issues, which was exacerbated by the fact that IAM Local Lodge 839 had been locked into its recently expired contract for 13 years, during which pay and benefits stayed the same inside the factory, while literally the whole world changed outside it.
- Workers didn’t like many contract specifics
- No way to predict how long strike will last
Spirit AeroSystems and Machinists Union return to negotiations Saturday
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By Bryan Corliss
June 23, 2023, © Leeham News — Negotiators for Spirit AerosSystems and International Association of Machinists Local Lodge 839 will resume negotiations Saturday, in hopes of reaching an agreement that would resolve a strike set to begin just after midnight tonight.
A Wichita Eagle photo of orange security fencing up around the Spirit AeroSystems plant in Wichita, Kan.
The meetings, which will include a federal mediator, will start about 10 hours after the walkout begins.
The strike, involving some 6,000 union-represented hourly workers at Spirit’s Wichita plant, threatens significant disruption to the wider aerospace industry — particularly at Boeing. The Wichita plant produces 70% of 737 aerostructures, along with the forward sections of all Boeing commercial jets.
It comes after workers rejected a proposed four-year deal on Wednesday, with 79% voting no and 85% voting to strike.
- Company: Two sides have been talking
- Worker: ‘Feathers on a dog don’t make it a chicken’
Paris Day Four: Air show winds down as Spirit strike looms over industry
By Bryan Corliss
June 22, 2023, © Leeham News – The business portion of the Paris Air Show wound down today, with no new orders and news of a looming strike in Kansas that will soon grind Boeing aircraft production to a halt.
It was a stark contrast to the high pre-show expectations. Some analysts were projecting we’d see between 2,000 and 3,000 new aircraft ordered this week in Paris. By our count, there were 1,084 – a sizable haul no doubt. However, 970 of those came from IndiGo and Air India, who had telegraphed their plans to place those orders before the show, and used Le Bourget as a backdrop for signing the papers. Read more
Update: Spirit shuts down 737 lines after Machinists Union votes to strike
By Bryan Corliss
June 21, 2023, © Leeham News – Machinists Union members at Spirit AeroSystems in Wichita have overwhelmingly rejected a proposed four-year contract, setting the stage for a strike.
The contract between Spirit and IAM Local 839 expires at 12:01 a.m. Saturday. However, Spirit said Wednesday night that it would shut down production starting with Thursday’s first shift.
IAM members were not to report to work Thursday, the company said. They will get paid for their regular shifts, but all overtime is canceled.
Local 839 said that 79% of union members who cast ballots voted to reject Spirit’s offer, and 85% voted to authorize a strike.
“Most of our members have concluded the company’s offer is unacceptable,” union officers said.
Spirit leadership said it was “disappointed” by the outcome.
“We know that no one wins in a work stoppage; however, we respect the rights of our represented employees,” it said in a statement. “Despite this setback, we are not distracted from the task at hand. We look forward to continued meetings with IAM leadership.”
In a statement to Wichita-area news outlets, union officers said they would “regroup and begin planning the following steps to bring the company back to the table.”
There was no word Wednesday night whether the two sides had plans to meet.
A strike at Spirit would have significant ramifications throughout the aerospace industry. The company supplies Boeing with 70% of the aerostructures for the 737, and without those fuselages coming by train from Kansas, work at Boeing’s Renton factory will eventually come to a halt, impacting airlines who are expecting jets, as well as other suppliers who provide parts, components and subassemblies for Boeing’s best-selling commercial aircraft. Spirit also builds the nose sections for the 787, 767 and 777.
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The union’s negotiating committee had recommended approval on the Spirit offer, which it received on Friday.
However, the contract seemed in trouble during a Wednesday morning union meeting, prior to the vote. The Wichita Eagle reported that workers made paper airplanes out of the pages of the contract summary, and covered the floor of the arena where they were meeting with them. In addition, Wichita station KWCH-TV published a photo of its website of workers wearing t-shirts emblazoned with the message “That’s a Big No.”
- Contract offered 34% more pay over four years
- Workers had gone 13 years without a new contract
Machinists Union members at Spirit to vote on four-year contract this week
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By Bryan Corliss
June 19, 2023, © Leeham News – Roughly 6,000 Machinists Union members at Spirit AeroSystems in Wichita will vote Wednesday on a proposed four-year contract that would significantly increase pay for hourly workers.
The bargaining committee for IAM Local 839 is recommending that its members accept the deal.
“This is not an easy decision, but it is one that we believe is a good one,” the committee wrote in a letter to members on Friday.
It noted, however, that “the decision to accept or reject this offer is up to the membership,” and added that however the vote goes, the leadership “stands 100%” behind what the members decide.
At least some of those members are vocally urging the deal be rejected.
“How on earth did you think this is an offer we should accept?” one worker wrote on Local 839’s Facebook page. “You have betrayed us.”
The current contract expires just after midnight Friday, June 23.
- Offer on its face is generous
- Comes after 13 years without a new contract
- Industry-wide ramifications should a strike occur
UPDATE: Spirit says 737 manufacturing errors will disrupt deliveries through July
By Bryan Corliss
March 3, 2023 © Leeham News – The manufacturing errors its team made on Boeing 737 MAX fuselages will cost Spirit AeroSystems at least $31 million to fix, with work on the units still at the Wichita factory going on until the end of July, the company reported this morning.
But that’s just the start, Spirit executives warned.
“Additional costs are expected, including costs Boeing may assert to repair certain models of previously delivered units in their factory and warranty costs related to affected 737 units in service,” the company said in its quarterly earnings release.
The time and cost to make those repairs will have to be determined on “a unit-by-unit analysis,” Spirit said, adding that it “cannot reasonably estimate the remaining potential costs at this time.”
Repairs to the fuselages on hand in Wichita will cost $100,000 to $150,000 each, the company estimates. Spirit has revised its manufacturing process and implemented new quality controls, the company said.
Overall, Spirit reported an operating loss of $95 million for the quarter, which more than doubled its losses in the first quarter of 2022. The growing losses came even though Spirit increased revenues by 22% year-over-year, to $1.4 billion.
Spirit said that since the close of the quarter on March 30, it has received $230 million in cash advances from customers, of which $180 million has come from Boeing. It will receive another $50 million in advances later this year. Spirit is to repay those advances in 2024 and 2025.
- Some 750 737s to be inspected, may need rework
- Spirit to increase 737 rates in August, October
- Deliveries to Airbus to be down this year
- ‘Fragile’ supply chain remains an issue
- ‘Primary object is to reward our IAM colleagues’
UPDATED: Boeing says it still will deliver up to 450 737s this year
Boeing Co. photo
By Bryan Corliss
April 26, 2023, © Leeham News — Boeing says it will increase rates on the 737 line in Renton to 38 a month to maintain its plan to deliver between 400 and 450 737 MAX jets to airlines this year.
That was the first line of the company’s first-quarter earnings release, which showed Boeing lost $149 million on the quarter, on revenues of $17.9 billion.
Boeing had optimistically aimed for jumping MAX rates from the current 31 a month, as soon as June. However plans for the 737 line had been in question, after recent revelations that manufacturing problems and a software issue would cause delays in deliveries.
- ‘Gnarly’ 737 defect to take weeks to fix
- Boeing commits to MAX increases
- Improving numbers at BCA
- Supply chain issues continue, Boeing says
Spirit gearing up to produce 42-a-month on 737 program by the end of 2023
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By Bryan Corliss
Feb. 8, 2023, © Leeham News – Spirit AeroSystems plans to deliver 42 new-built 737 MAX fuselages a month to the Boeing Co. by the end of this year, executives said Tuesday.
Whether that’s how many 737s Boeing is delivering to customers is not for Spirit to say, CFO Mike Suchinksi told analysts during the company’s year-end earnings call.
“What Boeing delivers to their customers is, we have no purview. That’s on the Boeing side,” he said. “We’re just trying to communicate to you what the contract schedules have been and what we expect to produce internally and what we expect to ship to Boeing and to get paid for.”
But Spirit and its suppliers still have major challenges to overcome before they can get to those higher rates, Suchinski and CEO Tom Gentile warned. The company, which struggled through a tough year in 2022, is making major cash outlays in early 2023 to acquire the people and materiel it will need to reach those higher rates, and that will weigh on profitability for the next few quarters.
- Losses doubled in fourth quarter
- Outlook: 420 737s and 650 A320s
- Some suppliers in ‘deep distress’
- Spirit hiring, but new workers need time
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Outlook 2023: Labor shortages continue to plague aerospace
Boeing 777 final assembly line in Everett (WA). Credit: Leeham News.
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By Bryan Corliss
Jan. 4, 2023, © Leeham News: Some aerospace suppliers say the industry is dealing with a shortage of production workers, as well as engineers. Airbus, Boeing and other manufacturers, including engine companies, complain they can’t get to desired production rates because of, in part, a labor shortage.
It’s part of a broader phenomenon across all manufacturing, with one industry group saying there’s an immediate need for 2.1 million factory workers right now.
In some circumstances, this has meant raising wages. In Wichita, the “Aerospace Capital of the World,” there’s a bidding war going on for skilled aerospace mechanics. In Puget Sound, Boeing had to go back to the bargaining table with the Machinists Union in 2019, to negotiate $4-an-hour pay increases for entry-level workers. In Charleston (SC), Boeing reportedly struggles with a higher-than-normal attrition rate as workers leave for higher-paying jobs.
It seems inevitable that the lack of experienced workers will make it harder for companies to deliver parts and finished goods on time, and the absolute need to raise pay will cut into margins. Both these factors could very well be a drag on profits, even as airlines clamor for new aircraft that will increase manufacturers’ revenues.
Summary:
- Analysts warn of ‘labor headwinds’
- Spirit faced with ‘dynamic’ labor environment
- Boeing: 100 new mechanics a week?
- New-hire pay about the same as retail
- High turnover causes supply chain problems
Leeham News in addition to Twitter, Facebook and Linkedin, may now be found on Post.news here and on Mastodon here.
Suppliers expect Boeing to increase 787 rates next year
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By Bryan Corliss
Dec. 19, 2023, © Leeham News: Boeing suppliers are planning to increase their output to support the OEM’s plan to deliver five new-built 787s a month at some point in 2023.
Boeing wants to increase the production rate of the 787 to 5/mo by the end of 2023 and to 10/mo by 2025. The supply chain must hurry to prepare. Credit: Leeham News.
It will be challenging for the top-tier suppliers to scale up operations dramatically. They’ll have to train and maintain larger teams of workers, while also ensuring that their own lower-tier suppliers have the capacity to deliver parts and components on time.
One executive warned investors this fall that the challenges in the year ahead will be greater than the ones the industry faced delivering record numbers of planes before the pandemic.
Summary:
- Howmet: ‘Back of the year, at around 5 per month’
- Suppliers want more lead time given challenges
- Whole supply chain is under stress
Leeham News in addition to Twitter, Facebook and Linkedin, may now be found on Post.news here and on Mastodon here.