Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 32. Design for production September 29, 2023
- Further developments of Airbus’ A321 September 28, 2023
- Pontifications: “We’re sick and tired of new technologies:” Avolon CEO September 26, 2023
- eVTOL operator profitability: an elusive dream? September 25, 2023
- Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 31. Detailed design -3 September 22, 2023
Boeing 737 MAX 2020-23 backlog will require to 2026 to deliver: analysis
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Introduction
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 14, 2020, © Leeham News: It will take Boeing years to deliver new production airplanes scheduled for delivery in 2020-2023 because the restart of the 737 MAX production will fall far short of delivery commitments.
There are an estimated 2,682 deliveries scheduled in this timeframe. Boeing’s production restart and ramp up provides delivery positions for an estimated 1,827 aircraft. This leaves an estimated 855 aircraft that will have to be rescheduled into the future, from 2023.
These will compete with Boeing sales for new order delivery slots. For example, the MOU for 200 MAXes from IAG, the parent of British Airways and other carriers, has delivery slots in these periods.
An analysis by LNA indicates it will take at least until 2026 to deliver these 855 airplane if no other orders are slotted in through 2025.
Airbus buys Bombardier’s share in A220, now sole owner together with the Government of Quebec
By Bjorn Fehrm
February 13, 2020, © Leeham News in Toulouse: The news this morning that Airbus is now the sole owner of the A220 (75%) together with the Government of Quebec (25%) is good news for the A220 and for Quebec.
Bombardier is a company in trouble and it was forced to try and save cash in the A220 partnership rather than invest in the future. This potential limitation on the A220 program is now resolved. Airbus gets sole responsibility for future plans and it has in the Government of Quebec a partner that will be positive to the growth of the A220 as it means more business for the Quebec aeronautical industry.
Boeing 737 production rate boost to 57/mo delayed by four years
- Plan called for 737 rate to go to 57/mo YE 2019.
- This rate won’t be achieved until 2023.
- Rate reduction considered for 777.
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 5, 2020, © Leeham News, Lynnwood (WA): Suppliers attending the annual conference of the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance say they gained some clarity from Boeing last week about future production plans for the 737 MAX.
But they still face a multi-year challenge that puts strain on everyone.
Boeing’s plans to return to the pre-grounding production rate of 52/mo will take until 2022. Plans to boost the rate won’t be fulfilled until 2023—four years later than planned.
Boeing looks to produce about 220 MAXes in 2020
By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 30, 2020, © Leeham News: Boeing appears preparing to produce around 220 737 MAXes this year.
Spirit AeroSystems announced this morning that it reached agreement with Boeing to supply 220 fuselages in 2020.
The actual number of MAXes Boeing produces this year may vary from 220. It could well be that some of the 2020 fuselage deliveries spill over into 2021 deliveries.
Boeing tells union: MAX production halt “weeks;” others see months
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By Scott Hamilton and Byran Corliss
Introduction
Dec. 23, 2019, © Leeham News: The Boeing 737 MAX production shut down will be measured in “weeks,” Boeing told one of its unions.
But “weeks” is a highly open-ended description.
One supplier estimated for LNA that the suspension will be at least 60-90 days.
An aerospace analyst sees the halt lasting 3-6 months at a minimum.
Boeing 737 MAXes stored at Boeing Field. Source: Seattle Times.
LNA’s analysis does not see production resuming before the Federal Aviation Administration notifies Boeing that it has a date certain for recertification. It has announced no timeline, although published reports already suggest this could be any time from mid-February to well into March.
But these are speculative dates.
Summary
- Boeing now says that once certification is achieved, delivering from the inventory is a priority over producing new airplanes.
- This raises additional uncertainty over restarting production.
- Spirit Aerosystems has some 90 fuselages in storage.
Read more
Pontifications: Time for Odds and Ends
Sept. 24, 2018, © Leeham News: This week we catch up on Odds and Ends.
Boeing catching up on 737
By Scott Hamilton
Boeing has reversed the number of 737s piling up at Renton Airport and Boeing Field and is starting to burn off the “gliders” and other aircraft plagued by traveled work.
Although some aerospace analysts came away from the investors day this month skeptical that Boeing would clear the backlog by year end, barring another hiccup of size, it looks like the company will do so.
Spirit Aerosystems said it had caught up on the delivery of fuselages while Boeing told aerospace analysts at its investors’ day this month that delays were still causing issues.
How does this conflict of information converge?
It’s a matter of sequencing the fuselages back into the system, I’m told.
Unfinished 737s have peaked, Boeing tells analysts
Sept. 6, 2018, © Leeham News: Boeing officials say the parked inventory of 737s has peaked at around 50 aircraft and should come down slowly as traveled work is performed.
Engineless Boeing 737 at the Renton factory. Photo via WoodysAeroImages.
Officials made the comments yesterday at its annual Investors Day for aerospace analysts.
The first two research notes LNC received last night reflected skepticism by Canaccord Genuity and JP Morgan that Boeing will successfully meet its recovery plan by year end.
As more notes were received today, these analysts generally were more receptive to Boeing’s upbeat message.
Boeing confident of 737 recovery by year-end; some analysts express doubt
Sept. 6, 2018, © Leeham News: As incomplete Boeing 737s fill the ramps, taxiways and other available space at Renton Airport and Boeing Field, company officials sought to assure aerospace analysts there is a recovery plan that will see a full complement of deliveries by year-end.
At least two analysts were unconvinced following the annual Boeing Investors Day yesterday.
Boeing 737 MAX awaiting engines, one of dozens of unfinished airplanes at the Boeing Renton plant. Photo via WoodysAeroImages.
In notes issued by Canaccord Genuity and JP Morgan analysts late Wednesday night Seattle time, Kenneth Herbert and Seth Seifman respectively expressed doubt Boeing will meet its 737 delivery target.
Supply chain stress, number of variants challenge 737 production rate hike
March 27, 2018, © Leeham News: Current production rates and complexity in the transition between the Boeing 737 NG and 737 MAX is straining the supply chain 
feeding Spirit Aerosystems, its CEO told a JP Morgan conference March 14.
The supply chain stress makes it challenging to increase production rates. Spirit, which builds the 737 fuselage for Boeing, deployed SWAT teams to key suppliers that are struggling.
Tom Gentile, Spirit’s CEO, did not name the suppliers.
Boeing is going to a production rate of 52/mo this year and 57/mo next year. The company is studying rate hikes up to 70/mo.
The supply chain and production will be among the topics at the Southeast Aerospace & Defence Conference June 25-27 in Mobile (AL).
Spirit AeroSystems, the world’s largest aerostructures company
A feature report.
By Bjorn Fehrm
March 15, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: Spirit AeroSystems is the world’s largest aerostructures supplier, with main facilities in Wichita (KS). I visited Wichita early March and was given a guided tour of the factories. It was a tour of contrasts.
In production hall two, the Boeing 737 fuselages are riveted together in much the same way as the Boeing B-29 Stratofortress was produced there during World War II. “Rosie the riveter” is replaced with a robot, but the hall still has a busy charm.
Figure 1. Hall two, the main 737 production area. Source: Spirit AeroSystems.
In another hall, the production is silent. The winding of the Boeing Dreamliner’s forward fuselage from rolls of tape is made with a swooshing sound. There are few people around; the machines rule. Everything is mega large; tape-layers, tools, autoclaves, the lot. Read more