Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
RTX Q2 2025 Earnings: Tariff Relief, GTF Stabilization, Strong Demand, and FAA Tailwinds Lift Outlook
By Chris Sloan
July 22, 2025, © Leeham News: RTX delivered strong second-quarter results, supported by continued momentum in the commercial aerospace sector, stabilization in its geared turbofan program, and a significant aftermarket ramp across Pratt & Whitney and Collins Aerospace.
Executives highlighted improving supply chain conditions and growing demand as key contributors, while also noting upcoming FAA modernization investments as a long-term opportunity. Despite ongoing trade friction and a sizeable tariff burden, RTX raised its full-year sales outlook and reaffirmed its free cash flow guidance. Executives said recent developments on the tariff front—including favorable exemptions and successful mitigation strategies—helped soften the impact and improve visibility heading into the second half.
“Our outlook on the impact of tariffs has improved for the year,” said RTX President and Chief Executive Christopher Calio. The company originally expected a $850m tariff headwind in 2025 but has since lowered that figure to $500m. Calio attributed half of the reduction to external developments such as the paused implementation of new rates and the UK’s decision to exempt aerospace components. The remainder, he said, came from the company’s mitigation actions, including optimizing material flows through its supply chain, taking pricing actions where possible, and leveraging trade agreements such as USMCA.
RTX has already incurred approximately $125m in tariff costs through the first half of the year, with the remaining $375m expected in the second half. Of that, $275m is expected to impact Collins Aerospace, and $225m will affect Pratt & Whitney. CFO Neil Mitchill Jr. said roughly $60m and $40m in costs have already been recorded at Collins and Pratt, respectively, during Q2. The total cash impact is expected to reach $600m for the year.
Book Review: Rescuing DOC: The Tale of a B-29’s Triumphant Return to Wichita
Editor’s Note: The Oshkosh Air Show began this week. One of the airplanes to come to the show is the Boeing B-29, “Doc.” LNA’s partner, AINOnline, reviewed the book written by the organization that restored “Doc” to flying status. Here’s a preview of the review with a link to the full review at the bottom of this post. I had the opportunity to fly in “Doc” in 2022. My story is here. — Scott Hamilton.
AIN’s Oshgosh show news may be followed here.
Rescuing DOC: The Tale of a B-29’s Triumphant Return to Wichita
Effort involved decades of negotiations and restoration, but Wichita’s deep labor pool came through
While many might consider Wichita’s role in aviation history through the recent lens of the numerous Citations, Learjets, King Airs, and other aircraft produced by its manufacturers, the city has carried the sobriquet of Air Capital of the World since the late 1920s.
During World War II, Boeing’s Wichita factory churned out more than 1,600 B-29 Superfortress bombers, and the story of how one of them returned as an abandoned wreck and was restored to become only the second of its type still airworthy is told by Wichita-based Dave Franson, a veteran aviation industry publicist.
Every story requires a protagonist, and in Franson’s new book, Rescuing DOC, that is Cleveland native Tony Mazzolini, who served in the U.S. Air Force during the Korean War as a flight engineer, having enlisted fresh out of high school.
The first half of the book is relayed to the author as first-person narrative and describes how Mazzolini got the idea to rescue a B-29, his quest to locate a viable candidate for restoration, and the eventual hoops he was forced to jump through to gain title to the four-engine bomber that had lain forgotten at the China Lake weapon test range in the California desert for more than four decades.
The full book review may be found on AINOnline here. The book may be purchased here.
What’s the next new aircraft, Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
July 21, 2025, © Leeham News: Our series about “What’s the next new aircraft” was introduced last week, where we look at what potential new aircraft could be introduced over the following decades, and what technologies these would use.
In Part 2 of the five-part series, we introduce some basics around aircraft efficiency and examine what areas these 13 new aircraft aim to improve to enhance their efficiency.
In the following Parts, we will look into these aircraft in more detail and write about how challenging it will be to develop and mature the needed technologies.
Figure 1. The 13 new aircraft concepts that we study. Source: Leeham Co.
AIN, LNA to share select stories
By Scott Hamilton
July 18, 2025, (c) Leeham News: Now that AIN Media Group has completed the acquisition of Leeham News, I can tell our readers that we will begin to expand coverage at both outlets.
AINonline and LNA will share “previews” of select stories each outlet publishes, with links to the relevant site for the full story. There’s no “schedule” for doing so; the shares will be based on assessing the relevance to our respective readership.
We anticipate further resource-sharing going forward, which will be announced at the time we’re ready to launch these.
For now, here are some recent examples of AIN stories that we will pick up from AINOnline:
Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 31, Conclusions.
By Bjorn Fehrm
July 18, 2025, ©. Leeham News: We have done a Corner series on the state of actions to mitigate the global warming impact from Air Transport. Now, we start to summarize what we’ve learned.
During the series, we compiled tables describing the warming effect of air transport in 2024 and a calculation of the effect during 2050. We made two tables, one with the most probable effects, Figure 1, and one where we downplayed the non-CO2 effects to the maximum given in the Lee et al. 2021 study, to a 5% probability, Figure 2.
Figure 1. The effects of Actions 1 to 4 on CO2 and NOx, represented as CO2e emissions during 2050. Source: Leeham Co. Click to enlarge.
Before we summarize by examining the tables, we will discuss the additive effects of CO2 and non-CO2 warming over a given time period, as the different components don’t have the same decay time of their warming effects.
AIN Media Group completes the purchase of Leeham News & Analysis
July 17, 2025, © Leeham News: AIN Media Group today completed the purchase of Leeham News & Analysis.
The acquisition was announced June 17 during the Paris Air Show.
AIN is a 50-year old privately held media company. It’s best known for covering business and corporate aviation and the future flight sector. LNA focuses on commercial aviation, specializing in airframe and engine Original Equipment Manufacturers, the supply chain and future flight concepts in commercial aviation.
Complementary news coverage strengthens both and brings resources to LNA to broaden its coverage. LNA’s experienced editors, analysts and writers remain in place and the focus of its coverage remains unchanged.
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Leeham Co. LLC and Leeham Consulting remain independently owned and operated.
GE Aerospace Soars on Commercial Momentum in Q2; Updates on GE9X, GEnx, LEAP and RISE
By Chris Sloan
July 17, 2025, © Leeham News: GE Aerospace posted a standout second quarter and first half of 2025, with Q2 profit up 65% to $2.4bn, total revenue climbing 21% to $11.0bn, and profit margin rising to 21.7%, up from 15.9% a year ago—a 37% improvement. The company paired its earnings release with a comprehensive Deep Dive Investor Update, initially slated for the Paris Air Show but postponed following the Air India crash.
“We’re proud to be underway on three out of every four commercial flights,” said Chairman and CEO Larry Culp. “CES (Commercial Engines & Services) has more than 49,000 engines in service and growing.”
The strong quarter was driven by three commercial tailwinds: a 29% surge in services revenue, a 45% increase in total commercial engine units, and a record-breaking order for more than 400 GE9X and GEnx engines from Qatar Airways—the largest widebody engine deal in GE’s history.
What’s the next new aircraft? Part 1
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Part 1 of 5
By Scott Hamilton
July 17, 2025, © Leeham News: Some urge Boeing to take the plunge “now” to launch a new airplane program.
Institutional knowledge is slipping away, these people say. Boeing hasn’t launched a new airplane since December 2003 (the 787), they note. The 737 MAX is selling at a poor second to the Airbus A320neo family. Boeing continues to lose market share.
This illustrates the variety of aircraft being discussed for the next decade or more. Boeing already decided to nix the Transonic Truss Brace Wing aircraft (#2). Credit: Leeham News.
On the other hand, Airbus is in no hurry to launch a new airplane program—or so it says. It can’t keep up with current demand.
Beginning today, LNA will take a five-part look at what the potential new airplanes and/or airplane technologies are for the coming decade or more. Having recently attended the Paris Air Show, we have the latest to supplement our years of study in this arena.
We look at 13 airplanes and concepts (we don’t examine eVTOLs and pure-battery-powered aircraft). These are numbered for identification—not for any ranking of likelihood of proceeding to a real program.
Today’s Part 1 identifies and describes the 13 aircraft.
Boeing ponders 16/mo production rate for 787
By Scott Hamilton
July 16, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing is considering boosting the production of its 787 widebody jet to 16/mo, LNA has learned. This record rate would be at its Charleston (SC) plant and would exceed the previous high of 14/mo split evenly between its Everett (WA) facility and Charleston.
Boeing 787-9. Credit: Boeing.
The Charleston plant currently has enough space to produce 12 787s per month, a 2020 analysis by LNA concluded.
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At long last, Boeing appears near certification and EIS for 777X
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By Scott Hamilton
July 14, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing is still months away from receiving certification of its newest, largest jet—the 777-9—and the company didn’t bring one of the test airplanes to the Paris Air Show last month. However, officials showcased the passenger and freighter models in an experience center during the major international event.
Justin Hale has the imposing title of Customer Leader & Senior Product Marketing Director for 777X and Production Freighter aircraft
The 777X comes in three models: the 465-seat 777-9; the 777-8F cargo airplane; and the 777-8 passenger model, which is an ultra-long-range (ULR) aircraft. The program was launched in 2013 at the Dubai Air Show (even though the first order, from Lufthansa Airlines, was placed earlier). Entry into service (EIS) was planned for the first quarter of 2020 with an unofficial goal of December 2019.
Flight testing revealed some technical issues with the 115,000 lb thrust GE9X engines. These required engine removal and return to GE Aerospace for redesign, delaying the program by nine months. Further flight testing revealed some uncommanded nose-down flight anomalies, requiring software redesign.
Then two fatal crashes of the Boeing 737 MAX in October 2018 and March 2019 revealed design and certification problems with the MAX. Scrutiny by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) of the MAX program expanded to include a comprehensive review of the work done up to that point on the 777X. The COVID pandemic further stalled flight testing and certification work. The engine-mounted thrust links developed cracks during further flight testing, adding to the delays.
Now, Boeing sees the program is finally on track for certification this year and EIS next year.
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