Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Impact on Boeing’s China deliveries under Trump’s latest tariff tiff will be minimal
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 23, 2025, © Leeham News: President Donald Trump ratcheted up the trade war with China when he announced on Oct. 12 that a 100% tariff would be levied on imports to the US.
This round was a retaliatory measure against China’s restrictions on exporting rare earth materials to the US and other countries. Rare earth materials are principally sourced from China and are critical to the aerospace industry, among others.
Trump said he also might block deliveries from Boeing to China’s airlines and lessors, as well as key parts, components, and engines. A large portion of China’s current fleet is Boeing aircraft. Blocking spare parts could eventually ground in-service Boeing airplanes due to parts shortages.
US-made engines and a variety of parts and systems for China’s C909 and C919 airliners are also sourced from the US. Airbus aircraft operated by China’s airlines may also have US parts and components that could be blocked if Trump takes this action.
There was initial hand-wringing among some media that blocking deliveries would hurt Boeing. However, when Boeing’s delivery stream to China for the balance of Trump’s current term (which ends on Jan. 20, 2029) is examined, it’s clear that, while annoying, Boeing actually has few airplanes scheduled for delivery.
Deliveries to China represent between 3% and 5% of total deliveries through the balance of Trump’s term.
The China delivery data is from Cirium, as of Oct. 7. The total deliveries through 2029 are estimates from Bernstein Research.
Boeing deliveries to China represent a small single-digit percentage of total deliveries through the remainder of President Trump’s term. Credit: Leeham News.
Airbus sticks to 2027 EIS for A350F
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 22, 2025, © Leeham News: Airbus reaffirmed its goal for the A350F to enter service in the second half of 2027, despite some customers telling LNA that EIS may slip to 2028. The new certification environment prompted by the Boeing 737 MAX crisis may mean a longer-than-anticipated review by Europe’s regulator, EASA, customers say.
Crawford Hamilton, head of freighter marketing for Airbus, said that, so far, the 2H2027 EIS remains the target.
Rendering of the Airbus A350F. Assembly of the first two airplanes is underway. First flight is expected next year, and the entry-into-service goal is the 2H2027. Credit: Airbus.
“I’ve spoken to both the chief engineer and the deputy program manager and the program manager about this recently because there are a lot of things in the rumor mill going around about this,” Hamilton said. “The answer is no, the basic structure there for the requirements that we’ve met is all still there. It’s the same as it was, and we are going toward that to meet the requirements from both the EASA and the FAA. So, as I stated, the EIS is in the second half of 2027 and remains so.”
Hamilton, who is no relation to this author, said that Airbus has worked with regulators since 2022 to understand the certification requirements.
He made his remarks at the Cargo Facts conference in Nashville (TN).
Blade-out design for CFM’s RISE; 2nd A320 line in Mobile
By Scott Hamilton
Arjan Hageman. Credit: GE Aerospace.
Oct. 22, 2025, © Leeham News: The Open Rotor engine and its evolution, the Open Fan, promise dramatically lower fuel consumption compared with evolutions of the ducted fan engine. The Open Rotor has counter-rotating fans, while the Open Fan has a single rotating fan with stators that do not rotate behind it, which can be adjusted or pivoted for maximum efficiency.
Open Rotor testing in the 1980s proved noisy, offered slower cruising speeds than conventional jet engines, and caused vibration that transferred to the vertical tails of the Boeing 727 and McDonnell Douglas MD-80 test beds. Questions about maintenance and concerns over blade failure were paramount.
Developers of the Open Fan, GE Aerospace, and Safran, under the CFM International brand, say objections to the Open Rotor design have been overcome. The noise is lower than that of the CFM LEAP engine, according to testing. The cruising speed is now projected to be comparable to today’s Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAXes. Maintenance durability, reliability, and dust ingestion testing aims to overcome entry-in-service maintenance shortcomings of the LEAP and competing Pratt & Whitney GTF engines.
Related Story
However, industry and airline officials LNA talks to aren’t yet convinced that blade out concerns have been resolved.
“We’re designing for blade-outs,” GE’s Arjan Hageman, vice president for the future of flight at GE, said in an interview with LNA earlier this month.
RTX Posts Steady Q3 2-25 As GTF Stabilization, Collins Strength, And Tariff Headwinds Define Results
By Chris Sloan
October 21, 2025, © Leeham News: RTX delivered a solid and steady third quarter, marked by broad-based growth, improving GTF maintenance output, and continued strength at Collins Aerospace—even as tariff headwinds persisted. Company sales rose 12% year-over-year to $22.5bn, or 13% organically, while adjusted segment operating profit increased 19%, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of year-over-year margin expansion. Net income attributable to common shareholders climbed to $1.9bn, up from $1.4bn a year ago.
Chairman and CEO Christopher Calio credited strong execution across all three segments for the performance, citing double-digit growth in commercial OE, aftermarket, and defense. RTX booked $37bn in new awards during the quarter—$23bn in defense and $14bn in commercial—lifting total backlog to $251bn, up 18% since the end of 2024.
With passenger traffic holding firm and OEM production trending higher, Collins and Pratt both benefited from robust aerospace demand. Calio said the company is raising its full-year outlook for adjusted sales and operating profit, supported by the ongoing production ramp and a stabilizing supply chain.
The conversation around the GTF program has shifted: improved MRO throughput and material flow replaced the usual focus on compensation and grounded aircraft, and for the first time in recent memory, the familiar “powdered-metal” refrain was absent from the call—an indication that Pratt’s recovery is turning a corner.
GE Aerospace Q3 2025 Earning Lifts Guidance On Record LEAP Output And Strong Services
By Chris Sloan
October 21, 2025, © Leeham News: GE Aerospace reported third-quarter results today, marking another period of broad-based momentum as the company raised its full-year outlook on stronger services and record engine deliveries.
“GE Aerospace delivered an exceptional quarter with revenue up 26%,” said Chairman and CEO Larry Culp Jr. “Given the strength of our year-to-date results and our expectations for the fourth quarter, we’re raising our full-year guidance across the board.”
Improved material flow from key suppliers—up more than 35% year-over-year—helped drive the surge. Services revenue rose 28%, while engine deliveries climbed 33%, including record LEAP production up 40% from a year ago. Culp said the company’s operational rhythm continues to compound in the right direction reflecting both supply chain stability and persistent demand for narrowbody powerplants.
The quarter also brought several high-profile commercial wins. Korean Air announced the largest fleet commitment in its history—103 Boeing aircraft powered by a mix of GE9X, GEnx and LEAP-1B engines—along with a long-term services deal. Cathay Pacific expanded its GE9X order, adding 28 engines to bring its total to more than 70 for 35 Boeing 777-9 aircraft. The GE9X program continues to advance testing and durability work even as Boeing’s 777-X certification slips further into 2026.
Culp emphasized GE Aerospace’s depth of experience and installed base, noting that the company now supports 78,000 engines in service and has logged more than 2.3 billion flight hours. “With seven commercial engine certifications in the last two decades, this is an experience-based business that keeps us close to our customers,” he said.
Chief Financial Officer Rahul Ghai said GE expects roughly 2,000 LEAP engine shipments in 2025 and steady GE9X deliveries. “Our volume assumptions for 9X have not changed since July,” he said. “We do expect 9X losses to more than double year-over-year as we think about 2026, which will offset some of the positive growth we’ll see from Services.”
Consultant Presses Embraer To Confirm Large Bizjet Plans
Oct. 21, 2025, © Leeham News: From our partners at AIN:
Embraer Executive Jets leader said company will take its time before taking its next step
October 16, 2025
Embraer this week reaffirmed that it is actively studying the case for entering the large-cabin business jet market. Speaking at its investors day event at the New York Stock Exchange, a leading consultant urged Embraer Executive Jets president and CEO Michael Amalfitano to confirm whether his group will step up to compete with Gulfstream, Bombardier, and Dassault, and he didn’t rule out the move.
Embraer hasn’t produce the large cabin Lineage 1000 business aircraft for almost five years, but it is now contemplating a return to the heavy jet segment. Credit: AIN.
Dean Roberts, v-p for strategy, sustainability, and development with Rolland Vincent Associates, argued that the time is right for the Brazilian manufacturer to expand its portfolio beyond its Phenom and Praetor family of light and midsize jets. In his view, its U.S., Canadian, and French rivals aren’t fully addressing the market.
The case for Embraer to invest in the development of a business jet at the top end of the sector has to compete with the aerospace and defense group’s ongoing ambitions to directly challenge Airbus and Boeing in the race to dominate the next generation narrowbody airliner market.
The full story may be found here.
Airbus’ A220 conundrum
Subscription Required
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 20, 2025, © Leeham News: Airbus and Boeing face a challenge that is good news and bad news.
The Airbus A220-300 is essentially an orphan. An “A220-500” is needed, but so is a higher production rate, and sales of the -300 don’t support this. Credit: Airbus.
The good news: Demand for most of their airplanes is high. The bad news: neither can meet the demand. Delivery slots are sold out for the A320neo and 737 MAX families into the next decade. Widebody delivery positions are also increasingly scarce. And the supply chain continues to fall short, while engine makers still struggle to deliver durable and reliable products.
Airbus has another problem that’s not so good news. Demand for its smallest airplane, the A220, has stalled. This is due in part to ongoing troubles with the Pratt & Whitney GTF engines. There are nearly 80 aircraft out of a delivered fleet of 451—an 18% AOG (aircraft on ground) rate–but PW says it’s responsible for only about 32 of the AOGs, or roughly 7% of the total fleet of aircraft. A handful of A220s have been scrapped to monetize for parts rather than be stored indefinitely, running up storage fees, awaiting new engines.
Another reason sales have stalled: The A220 is essentially an orphan airplane. Only 118 A220-100s have been ordered out of 941, or 12.5%. Some key airlines, such as Air France and Delta Air Lines, want a stretched version, commonly called the A220-500 (a name not adopted by Airbus). But adding to the family requires achieving profitability for the program. Airbus hasn’t accomplished this goal. To do so, suppliers must cut their prices, and the production rate must jump from the current 6-8 a month to 14/mo—a tall order given the lack of orders and the A220-300’s orphan status.
It’s a classic chicken-and-egg conundrum.
Bjorn’s Corner: Faster aircraft development. Part 12. Preliminary Design; Requirements Definition.
By Bjorn Fehrm and Henry Tam
October 17, 2025, ©. Leeham News: We do a series about ideas on how the long development times for large airliners can be shortened. New projects talk about cutting development time and reaching certification and production faster than previous projects.
The series will discuss the typical development cycles for an FAA Part 25 aircraft, called a transport category aircraft, and what different ideas there are to reduce the development times.
We will use the Gantt plan in Figure 1 as a base for our discussions. We added two milestones to our Program Plan, which we will refer to in the articles: Preliminary Design Review and Critical Design Review. Here is their definition according to NASA:
The Preliminary Design Review (PDR) demonstrates that the preliminary design meets all system requirements with acceptable risk and within the cost and schedule constraints, and establishes the basis for proceeding with detailed design. It shows that the correct design options have been selected, interfaces have been identified, and verification methods have been described. The PDR should address and resolve critical, system-wide issues and show that work can begin on detailed design.
The Critical Design Review (CDR) demonstrates that the maturity of the design is appropriate to support proceeding with full-scale fabrication, assembly, integration, and test. CDR determines if the technical effort is on track to complete the system development, meeting mission performance requirements within the identified cost and schedule constraints.
Figure 1. A generic new Part 25 airliner development plan. Source: Leeham Co. Click to see better.
*** Special thanks to Andrew Telesca for helping with this article***
GE advances on RISE’s dust ingestion, installation testing
Subscription Required
By Scott Hamilton
Arjan Hageman. Credit: GE Aerospace.
Oct. 16, 2025, © Leeham News: GE Aerospace has begun dust ingestion testing of its RISE Open Fan engine, the earliest it’s ever done so. The company told the media in advance of the Paris Air Show that this was coming—and now it’s here.
This is much more significant than the layman would understand. Colloquially, there’s dust and then there’s dust.
Dust in especially harsh environments, such as the Middle East and India, has played havoc on jet engines for decades. Dust from these areas has its own properties. In addition, dust in India is found in humid environments. Dust in the Middle East is in a dry climate.
Arjan Hegeman, vice president for the future of flight at GE, said in an interview with LNA last week that lessons learned from durability issues from its engines (as well as Pratt & Whitney’s GTF) contributed to the current, early effort to advance dust ingestion testing for the RISE.
The RISE Open Fan is GE’s primary bet for an engine for the future for the next generation of single-aisle airplanes—replacements for the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX families. GE exclusively powers the MAX and has a majority share on the A320.
“We just kicked off our dust engine on Compact Core Technologies. We just recently shared that in an investor review earlier this week as well,” Hegeman said.
“It’s the earliest we’ve ever done this type of testing. We’re priding ourselves on how we do many more durability-type tests, like dust ingestion, which basically means you run 3,000 endurance cycles, which emulates each cycle as a flight of the engine.”
Endurance and reliability of engines from GE, PW, and Rolls-Royce have been troublesome since each company introduced engines powering today’s latest generation of airplanes.
Heading toward year-end, Airbus maintains lead in narrowbody orders but Boeing commands the widebody sector
Subscription Required
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 13, 2025, © Leeham News: As the commercial airliner industry sprints to the end of this year, Boeing remains the champion in the widebody, twin-aisle sector with a commanding lead over Airbus.
Figure 1
But the European manufacturer is the blow-out victor in the more important narrowbody, single-aisle sector where between 80% and 85% of the sales are made.
Boeing has 59% of the widebody backlog to Airbus’ 41%. These are the only two companies competing in this sector.
In the more crowded single-aisle 125-240 seat sector, Airbus has a 54% market share to Boeing’s 35%. China’s COMAC has a 10% share of the backlog, although its production and delivery performance is poor. Embraer’s E195-E2, has a 1% share of this sector. The E195-E2 is a 144-seat single class and 133-seat two-class airplane.
Figure 2
Embraer’s smaller E190-E2 competes with the Airbus A220-100. Airbus has 54% of this 100-125 seat sector with 45 planes in backlog to EMB’s 39 planes. Embraer’s smallest jet, the 76-seat E175-E1, has no competition. The 175 has a backlog of 208 aircraft.