Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Solid start for stand-alone GE Aerospace despite cuts to LEAP output April 23, 2024
- SPEEA, Boeing at impasse over safety program, union says April 23, 2024
- Better transparency needed on Boeing’s 1Q earnings call April 22, 2024
- Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 4. Propulsive efficiency April 19, 2024
- Boeing unlikely to meet FAA’s 90-day deadline for new safety program April 18, 2024
Boeing’s thinking still up in the air on New Small Airplane
Boeing promises “clarity” at the Paris Air Show about its New Small Airplane (NSA) program, but aside from settling on the performance it believes is required, little clarity has truly been achieved inside Boeing.
We learned last week key insights to Boeing’s thinking–and the divisions still remaining–within Boeing about the direction to go with the NSA. Our information comes from within Boeing, but the sourcing remains unidentified because the sourcing was not authorized to speak to the press. This information was obtained entirely separate from the pre-air show press briefings held June 2-3, which are embargoed to June 19 (Paris time)/June 18 Seattle time.
Information has been cross-checked with others and with statements made by Boeing executives in the public domain.
Odds and ends: A350-1000, A380 orders coming; NLRB action starts today
A350-1000: We broke the international news that Airbus and Rolls-Royce were going to modify the design of the A350-1000 to increase the range of the airplane. Now, the ever-thorough Flight Global has this story with a fair amount of detail that leaves the two companies little left to announce at the Paris Air Show next week.
A380 orders: When we did the Paris Air Show outlook for affiliate AirInsight, we indicated that Hong Kong Airlines would likely place the order for five A380s that had been expected at the Zhuhai Air Show but failed to materialize. It’s now been confirmed by the airline. Aspire Aviation takes a look at the rationale.
Larger engine, longer range A350-1000 to be announced at Paris Air Show
Airbus and Rolls-Royce have agreed to up-size the Trent XWB engine powering the A350-1000, which will add about 500nm of range, Leeham News has learned.
The formal announcements have been planned for the Paris Air Show. Airbus issued a “no comment” to our inquiry and Rolls-Royce did not return calls.
Emirates Airlines CEO Tim Clark has been urging Airbus to add power to the airplane and enlarge it to 380 passengers in three-classes and add range to allow non-stop service from Dubai to Los Angeles. Qatar Airways and Korean Airlines have also encouraged Airbus to enlarge the airplane.
UBS: Boeing too aggressive in 787 ramp-up plans
UBS Securities issued a note today that says Boeing is too aggressive in its production ramp-up plans for the 787. A synopsis:
* 787 learning curve appears more aggressive than 777: BA’s assumed learning curve is a key component of its forecast for 787 profitability and cash generation. Our analysis indicates that BA is assuming much faster learning on 787 than it was able to achieve on 777 despite having less control of production this time. With 777 type learning, we estimate BA would likely be in a forward loss with flat to progressively worse 787 cash flow over the next several years.
Paris Air Show outlook for Boeing
Here is a preview for Boeing for the Paris Air Show. More detail will be coming from AirInsight next week.
Odds and ends: More on DC-7B trip
Here are some more photos from our DC-7B trip. All photos by Scott Hamilton.
This PBY Catalina, a derelict but intact condition, is at the San Juan Airport. Given the loss of a PBY several years ago in a landing accident, could this become a new, restored edition?
Historical Flight Foundation’s DC-7B: Trip Report
I had the opportunity this month to join a group of 50 aviation geeks on the first international passenger flight of a Douglas DC-7 in decades.
Historical Flight Foundation’s Eastern Airlines DC-7B restoration, Opa-Locka Airport (Miami) prior to boarding for our trip to St. Maarten. Photo by Scott Hamilton.
This airplane, N836D, was delivered to Eastern Airlines in 1958. It flew with Eastern for about seven years and was sold to the Nomad travel club, which operated it for a number of years, still with the EA interior, before selling it to a third party who intended to create another travel club but never completed funding. It sat in St. Paul (MN) for 33 years until the owner of Florida Air Transport (FAT) discovered it and bought it. The Historical Flight Foundation was created for restoration to full EAL 1958 colors.
Ralph Pettersen, who was on the HFF trip, several years ago wrote this article with photos of the interior of the DC-7B as it had been stored at the St. Paul Airport.
Wikipedia has this history of the DC-7. Eastern ordered 49 DC-7Bs, more than any other carrier. According to the book, From the Captain to the Colonel, a history of Eastern by the late Robert Serling, EAL’s CEO Capt. Eddie Rickenbacker over-ordered the DC-7, knowing the jet-powered Boeing 707 and Douglas DC-8 were around the corner. (Eastern ordered the DC-8.) According to the book, had Eastern ordered fewer DC-7s and Lockheed Electras and more DC-8s, Eastern would not have been at a competitive disadvantage during the early years of the jet age.
Analyst takes on Boeing’s investors’ days
Here is what the analysts are saying about the Boeing investors’ days this week:
From Wells Fargo:
- 787 and Ramp Up. Overall, we believe the biggest issues that investors have been trying better to understand are (1) the ability of Boeing to ramp up production of the 787 to 10 per month in 2013; (2) the program accounting for the 787; and (3) the plan for replacing the 737NG and its impact on R&D. Management did not give any more clarity to the production ramp up and thinks it has increased its visibility into the supply chain through MRP & IT systems and that it believes the Tier 1 suppliers should be able to support the ramp to 10 per month. Management is more concerned about Tier 2 & 3 where it has less visibility into their readiness.