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Introduction

Dec. 14, 2015, © Leeham Co. There are just 49 orders for the Airbus A319neo. There are only 55 orders for the Boeing 737-7 MAX.

The A319neo has been ordered by Avianca (19), Frontier Airlines (18) and there are 12 orders from Undisclosed customers.

The 737-7 has been ordered by Southwest Airlines (30), WestJet (25) and Canadian start-up Jetlines (5).

Bombardier’s CS300 is a direct competitor. There are 190 orders, but a fair number of these are soft, such as Iraqi Airways, Republic Airways Holdings and lessor LCI.

Embraer’s E-195 E2 has 90 orders through September, the most recently reported period by the OEM. While it is not a direct competitor when configured to the same standards—it carries slightly fewer people—EMB is effectively competing the 195 E2 as a replacement for the 737-700 and A319ceo in “right sizing” operations.

Summary

• The A319neo and 737-7 can’t compete economically with the CS300.
• Minimal interest raises doubts over future of A319neo and 737-7.
• No orders for the CS300 for more than a year, and despite recapitalizing BBD, market confidence remains on the sidelines.
• Embraer makes solid case for revenue enhancement through right sizing but union Scope Clauses limit appeal of 195 E2.