Jan. 24, 2018, © Leeham Co.: Dublin, Ireland: Boeing sees the 100-150 market sector as 10%-15% of the 20-year single-aisle market demand, or about 3,000-4,500 aircraft.
This compares with the 6,000-7,200 forecast by Bombardier.
Other companies fall within the 4,000 range.
Boeing doesn’t specifically segment the sector in its Current Market Outlook the 20-year forecast for regional, mainline, twin-aisle and cargo aircraft. However, Robert Michael, senior manager of product marketing for Boeing, disclosed the figure at the 20th Annual Airfinance Journal Conference Monday.
Michael said he expects the 737-7 MAX to capture about half the demand.
Capturing half the 3,000-4,500 unit demand is an aggressive forecast for the 7 MAX.
Bombardier claims it will capture half the 100-150 sector. Embraer has strong entries in the sector in the form of the E190/195 E1 and E2.
Airbus is proving to be a non-competitor with the A319neo. There are fewer than 40 orders following the conversion of 19 to the larger A321neo by Frontier Airlines.
The 7 MAX to date has about 60 identified orders, but Southwest Airlines just deferred 23 of them to 2023-24, fueling questions whether it will up-gauge some or all of these to the larger 8 MAX.
Boeing filed a trade complaint with the US government in April 2017, charging the C Series was illegally subsidized and Bombardier engaged in price dumping in a sale of 75+50 CS100s to Delta Air Lines. The US Department of Commerce found for Boeing and announced tariffs of 292% on each aircraft. The US International Trade Commission is due to rule tomorrow whether Boeing was harmed by Bombardier. If ITC finds no harm was done, the complaint dies. If it agrees harm was done, an appeal by Bombardier is certain.
Bombardier intends to establish a US final assembly line in Mobile (AL) regardless of the ITC ruling, which it believes will classify those airplanes produced there a US product exempt from tariffs.
Michael touts the 7 MAX as a good hot-high and short-field performance airplane It also has the longest range of any MAX.
He said that many MAX orders haven’t identified model and many have the ability to switch models. As lead times to production narrows, Michael believes the 7 MAX will see new orders emerge.
Michael said sales of the MAX 10 were stronger than Boeing expected when the program was officially launched last year at the Paris Air Show. The company announced 361 orders and commitments (not all of which have been converted to firm orders yet).
Michael said the MAX 10 hasn’t cannibalized orders from the MAX 9, but this overstates the facts. United Airlines converted 100 MAX 9 orders to the MAX 10, reducing the estimated backlog of the MAX 9 by about 30%. About 114 MAX 10 orders were converted from the 8 MAX. The balance was incremental orders.