Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Embraer’s 20-year market forecast under 150 seats: fewer turboprops, jets about the same June 14, 2025
- Airbus Canada CEO: Airbus is here to stay in Canada June 14, 2025
- Little known, most unknown in Air India 171 crash June 13, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 26. June 13, 2025
- Airbus forecasts that almost three times more aircraft needs to be produced by year 2044 June 12, 2025
Boeing’s clarity provided at BCC meeting
Update, May 11: UBS had Boeing’s Mike Bair, the head of the 737 future program, for presentations yesterday and issued its report. Much of the UBS report is similar to the Credit Suisse and Buckingham information captured below; here’s some of the new stuff.
- While still not taking a re-engined 737 off the table entirely, it was clear from our discussion that BA’s preference remains an all new NB for initial delivery in 2019-20. While no major announcement is expected in Paris, BA anticipates material selection in 2012 (metal vs. composite), followed by component selection strategy
(make vs. buy) in 2013 and official program launch in 2013-14, assuming a launch order is in place. BA envisions an eventual production rate of 60-70/month, which it sees as high enough to justify a dual source strategy for some major components. - While still not taking a re-engined 737 off the table entirely, it was clear during our discussion that Boeing’s preference remains an all new narrowbody with initial delivery in 2019-20.
- Boeing does not expect to make a major announcement at the Paris Airshow. It commented that it would expect a launch decision on a potential new aircraft to come roughly five-six years ahead of first delivery, putting program launch in the 2013-14 timeframe,
assuming a launch customer is in place by then. - Boeing commented that it would take a defection by a current 737 customer to get it to think more seriously about re-engining. Boeing sees this as unlikely and noted that Easyjet is the only 737 operator ever to defect to A320 and that it took very aggressive pricing by Airbus to achieve that outcome.
Our comment on the last point: Bair is wrong, of course: United and Frontier were two 737 customers to defect and Air Berlin also bought A320s; we believe there were more but don’t recall specifically.
Original Post:
In what is the clearest picture yet of Boeing’s intentions for program development, Boeing Capital Corp. officials met May 3 with aerospace analysts and financial types in one of BCC’s periodic meetings. What emerged from the meeting is a clear understanding of Boeing’s current thinking for the current 737 line and the New Airplane, which for this report we will identify as the 7X7.
This report is based on conversations with participants of the meeting, subsequent analyst reports that were issued and presentations to the group by Boeing.
The WSJ on Steve Hazy
We’re still on hiatus, but we could not resist this piece of art from the Wall Street Journal illustrating Steven Udvar-Hazy’s return to the public stock market today for his Air Lease Corp.
The Wall Street Journal article is, at the moment, for paid subscribers only but here is an LA Times article that gives some background.
Separately, Aspire Aviation has a good analysis of the COMAC C919 and its competitive threat to Boeing and Airbus.
Going on hiatus
Due do a number of special projects with near-term deadlines, this column will be a hiatus for a while. In the meantime, please see our affiliate, AirInsight, for commentary and news.
Advancing NEO puts pressure on Boeing
Here’s the last of three stories on the Boeing 737, the A320neo and the new Boeing airplane.
Boeing’s message changes on 737NG v A320neo
Here’s an article we did on changing messaging at Boeing about the 737 and the A320neo.
| Date: | 11/04/2011 10:07 |
| Source: | Commercial Aviation Online |
| Location: | Seattle |
| By: | Scott Hamilton |
Boeing’s messaging on the 737 against the Airbus A320neo has changed subtly in recent weeks. Does this signal a slight shift in Boeing’s intentions whether to proceed with a new airplane in the 737/757 class?
Boeing dismisses the business case for the A320neo, until recently saying the 737-800NG has only a 2-3% cash operating cost deficit today versus the projected NEO economics. By the time the A320neo entered service what was originally announced as Spring 2016, Boeing officials were confident that they could improve the economics of the 737-800 by at least that amount, retaining a fleet advantage of one engine type and a lighter airplane.
But Boeing’s message has shifted slightly.
Odds and Ends: Entertaining recap on Leahy and NEO
1. Entertaining look at Leahy and A320neo
Max Kingsley-Jones, editor of Airline Business, has this amusing take on Airbus COO John Leahy and Leahy’s view of his latest toy, the A320neo.
Last week we received a couple of inquiries and comments about the investment Airbus has made in the NEO and whether this will be worth it. Figures publicly issued by Airbus were that the investment in NEO is about $1.5bn.
What is not discussed but which is widely known within insider circles is that the engine makers, Pratt & Whitney and CFM, are footing most of the bill. We don’t know the split between the engine OEMs and Airbus, but we understand the engine share is not insignificant. Thus, the actual financial risk to Airbus is, by R&D standards, pretty small. We remarked to one who inquired that NEO will probably have one of the best ROIs for Airbus of any program.
Aviation Week’s Robert Wall has this story about the NEO, emerging from the Airbus 320neo briefing last week.
Reports from the Airbus neo event
Our partner at AirInsight, Addison Schonland, has posted additional reports from his attendance to the Airbus neo event April 5.
Tom Williams, EVP briefing.
John Leahy’s briefing. This is different than the one-on-one interview Addison had.
Keeping the A320 in production to 2030 decade.
Airbus, the NEO program and an interview with John Leahy
Airbus held a media day today about the A320neo; we were scheduled to go to Toulouse for this event but circumstances required we stay in Seattle, so our partner at AirInsight, Addison Schonland, made the journey.
He obtained an exclusive interview with John Leahy, COO Customers. Here is his report. Addison will have additional reports later in the week.
Odds and Ends: Three drivers for Bombardier; PW GTF gains momentum
1. JP Morgan looks at Bombardier
Aerospace analyst Joe Nadol has an interesting take on Bombardier and the next 12 months. Nadol begins with, “We believe Bombardier may be better positioned now than at any time in the 10+ years we’ve followed the stock,” and continues:
Three Important BBD Drivers: 1) CSeries, 2) CSeries, 3) CSeries. With the business jet and train businesses both poised for solid earnings growth, the CSeries is now clearly set as the key likely driver of the stock. There are two primary issues here. The first is demand, and we believe the program needs to start racking up more orders this year, even by the Paris Air Show in June. We believe there is a high level of interest, and we are fairly confident Bombardier will sell more aircraft. The partnership with Comac that Bombardier announced last week seems to foreshadow meaningful Chinese orders. Bombardier also has nearly $12 bil in financing for CSeries aircraft available from Chinese sources. The second issue is execution. Management noted that Bombardier still expects to fly the aircraft next year and also highlighted some recently achieved milestones for the engine. However, Flight reported in recent weeks that the date for first flight may have slipped by a few months into next fall, so the program does appear to be experiencing at least the normal level of fits and starts. Thus far, the CSeries appears on track overall, but execution obviously remains a major overhang given the complexity of the program and the well-known problems the industry has had meeting cost and schedule targets in recent years.