Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 4. Propulsive efficiency April 19, 2024
- Boeing unlikely to meet FAA’s 90-day deadline for new safety program April 18, 2024
- Focus on quality not slowing innovation, says GKN April 18, 2024
- Boeing defends 787, 777 against whistleblower charges April 17, 2024
- Dissecting Boeing CEO’s statement next new airplane will cost $50bn April 15, 2024
737 incidents prompt new scrutiny at Boeing
By the Leeham News Team
Analysis
Jan. 8, 2024, © Leeham News: Following in the footsteps of the 737 rudder bolt omission inspection just last month, we have the Jan. 5 incident on Alaska Airlines Flight 1282 in which an emergency exit plug door blew off the airplane at 16,500 ft. This may indicate another quality assurance failure at either Boeing or Spirit AeroSystems.
The door plug design used on the Boeing 737-900/900ER, 737-8-200 and 737-9. Credit: Boeing, via the National Transportation Safety Board.
We don’t know if this is a Boeing problem, a Spirit problem, a bolt manufacturer problem, or an Alaska Airlines problem. It’s way too soon in the investigation to draw conclusions. Certainly, because it’s Boeing’s name on the airplane, and especially given the MAX history, people are jumping to the conclusion that Boeing screwed up again. While this may ultimately prove true, LNA is not at all prepared to conclude today that this is the case.
Illustration of the bolt locations securing the Boeing 737-9 door plug to the airframe. Credit: Capt. Chris Brady.
The flight left Portland (OR) for Ontario (CA) about 4:30pm. Six minutes later, as the two-month-old Boeing 737 MAX 9 was climbing through 16,500 ft to cruising altitude, the inactive emergency exit plug door, aft of the wing on the left side of the plane, separated from the aircraft. Decompression followed, with an emergency descent and landing back at Portland. There were no serious injuries.
The area where the door plug and cell phones fell from Alaska Airlines Flight 1282. Credit: Google Earth, NTSB.
Boeing and Spirit have been plagued in recent years by quality “escapes.” Inspection and quality assurance may be the culprit again. The official investigation will take some time. The rapid issuance of the Emergency AD Note mandating only a one time inspection is a logical response to something having been misassembled, with the fix being to verify it is assembled per drawing. Whether this is another piece of poor workmanship not being caught by inspection remains to be seen.
The following analysis was compiled by LNA’s news team.
Spirit Focused on Delivering On Time and At Quality
By Dan Catchpole
Subscription Required
Nov. 6, 2023, © Leeham News: Spirit Aerosystems’ new CEO Pat Shanahan’s focus right now is “to restore confidence in the company” with its biggest customers—Airbus and Boeing.
During a Nov. 1st conference call discussing the company’s third quarter earnings, Shanahan said, “I recognize we have disappointed our stakeholders.”
Shanahan just came on as chief executive in October to help turn around Spirit, which has been flailing, along with much of the aerospace supply chain. Boeing and Airbus will be watching Shanahan’s progress. He gained a reputation as Mr. Fix-It during his time at Boeing.
Summary
- Market responds favorably to latest earnings report and management’s promises.
- Shanahan says Spirit is on track to deliver more than 50 737 MAX airframes in 2025.
- Goal is zero-quality issues.
Boeing Cuts 737 Delivery Estimate in Blood Red 3Q Earnings Report
By Dan Catchpole
October 25, 2023, © Leeham News: Boeing slashed its 737 MAX delivery forecast for the year to between 375 and 400 in its third quarter earnings report on Wednesday. The company attributed the cut to rework and inspections to fix manufacturing problems in aft pressure bulkhead sections produced by beleaguered supplier Spirit AeroSystems. It maintained its 787 delivery forecast of 70 to 80 airplanes by year’s end.
Boeing recorded a loss of $1.6bn in the third quarter, its worst quarterly performance this year. The company continues to struggle with supply chain and production problems. Boeing’s defense division spilled the most red ink on the ledger book due to problems on its Air Force One (VC-25B) program and losses on a satellite contract. BDS recorded a $924mn loss. Boeing executives acknowledged that the company’s recovery is taking longer than they had expected, but they remained upbeat about stabilizing the aerospace giant in the next couple years.
Summary:
- Boeing reports worst quarterly earnings since 3Q in 2022, when it recorded $3.3bn in losses.
- Boeing Defense, Space and Security recorded a $428mn loss on its Air Force One (VC-25B) program and a $315 million loss on a satellite contract.
- The company continues to struggle with supply chain problems and slower-than-expected rework on the 737 program.
- Boeing CEO says losses are a sign of the company’s commitment to a transparent culture and uncovering, rather than ignoring, problems.
Q3 Could Be Boeing’s Reddest Earnings Report This Year
Subscription Required
By Dan Catchpole
The U.S. Air Force accepted the first of five T-7A Red Hawk test aircraft from Boeing on Sep. 14th. (Image courtesy of USAF and Boeing Co.)
October 23, 2023, © Leeham News: Wall Street analysts expect Boeing to post its biggest quarterly loss of the year when it reports its third quarter earnings on Wednesday. The company’s commercial and defense divisions continue to struggle with rework, slow work, supply chain snafus, and other challenges for both its commercial and defense and space divisions. Those divisions’ losses likely will be offset somewhat by Boeing Global Services, which continues to be a bright spot on the company’s otherwise blood-red ledger book.
Analysts aren’t expecting any big surprises, just more of the same financial dark clouds that have been camped out over Boeing in recent years. They expect Boeing to announce a loss due to well-known challenges, especially with its 737 and 787 programs, as well as ongoing struggles within Boeing Defense, Space and Security. In recent research notes, investment analysts have forecast BDS posting a loss between $475m and $500m for the quarter.
Across Boeing’s divisions, Wall Street expects the company to book more than $1bn in losses. Projections vary by as much as $1bn. At the low end, TD Cowen expects a loss of just under $900m. At the other end, Bernstein projects about $1.85bn in losses. In either case, that would be the biggest loss since 2022’s third quarter, when Boeing posted a $3.3bn loss.
Summary:
- BCA continues to struggle with the 737 and 787 programs. It just announced a price revision deal on those programs with airframe supplier Spirit AeroSystems.
- BDS is expected to post more charges due to ongoing struggles with new and mature programs.
Analysis: With Gentile out at Spirit, here’s what Shanahan’s hiring likely means
By Bryan Corliss
Subscription required
Oct. 2, 2023, © Leeham News – Tom Gentile is out as CEO of Spirit AeroSystems, the victim of a number of serious production missteps and a failure to lead the Tier 1 supplier into a stronger position following the Covid-19 pandemic and the grounding of Boeing’s 737 MAX.
Interim Spirit AeroSystems CEO Pat Shanahan.
The new interim CEO is Pat Shanahan, a long-time Boeing and Pentagon executive who has been serving on Spirit’s board since 2021.
Spirit said its board is conducting a search for a new chief executive.
- Markets respond to news
- Shanahan faces huge challenges as CEO
- Shanahan’s resume fits Spirit’s need
- Our takeaway: What this means for Spirit’s future
Related Article:
Pontifications: “We’re sick and tired of new technologies:” Avolon CEO
By Scott Hamilton
Editor’s Note: As Airbus and Boeing consider new airplanes, their current generation aircraft are plagued with technical issues. The engines on the A320neo and 737 MAX families continue to have problems years after entry into service. The Boeing 787, which had ground-breaking technology when it was designed, has production issues. Flight testing early on revealed technical problems with the engine on the 777X, prompting the president of Emirates Airline to publicly suggest he won’t accept delivery until the engines are fully “mature.”
Aviation Week’s Check 6 podcast last week examined Boeing’s path toward a new airplane. Boeing CEO David Calhoun insists on waiting for new technology. But “new technology,” while in theory is a great idea, the phrase also scares people. LNA reported on this in March 2020. We’re reposting this article from then.
Related Stories
Now Open to All Readers
Subscription Required
Introduction
By Scott Hamilton
March 16, 2020, © Leeham News: “I can tell you from our perspective, we’re kind of sick and tired of new, new technology. It’s not proven to be the home run.”
This blunt assessment comes from the chief executive officer of the big aircraft lessor, Avolon.
Domhnal Slattery
Domhnal Slattery, the CEO, was giving his critique of whether Boeing should launch a new airplane once the 737 MAX crisis is over. (Update: Since this interview, Slattery retired from Avolon.)
Boeing was on a path to decide whether to launch the New Midmarket Airplane when the MAX was grounded one year ago this month.
Airbus was waiting for Boeing to move before deciding how to respond.
Summary
- Airbus and Boeing should “stick to their knitting.”
- Focus on incremental improvements for now.
- 2030s to 2050s will be the next big advance in technologies.
Analysis: Jefferies presentations show industry hasn’t stabilized post-Covid
Subscription Required
By Bryan Corliss
Sept. 11, 2023, © Leeham News: Negative cash flow in the quarters ahead. Ongoing issues with the supply chain. OEMs struggling to meet high airline demand as Tier 1s wrestle with quality issues. New technology wearing out faster than the old systems it replaced.
The No. 1 takeaway from last week’s Jefferies Financial Group Industrials Conference presentations is that the aerospace industry is still a few years away from being in a stable state capable of meeting the demands of customers and shareholders alike.
“We know our customers really do want to make more,” said Howmet CEO John Plant, whose company casts fasteners and engine components for Tier 1s and OEMs. “The question becomes when can we achieve these improved rates?”
Plant went on to say that he believes both Airbus and Boeing will hit their goals for increased widebody production; Airbus at 9/mo on the A350, Boeing at 10/mo for the 787.
The question, he said, is whether the OEMs will hit those rates in 2025 or 2026.
Executives from Boeing, Spirit AeroSystems and Howmet all presented at the conference, and all agreed that there’s reason to be optimistic, given the strong demand from airlines for more planes.
The issue, as Plant put it, is the industry’s ability to meet that demand. “We haven’t seen the real benefits of increased aerospace production.”
- Companies discuss latest 737 quality issue
- Spirit tries to get on track as refinance deadline looms
- Gentile: Supply chain needs new contract terms
- Boeing CFO projects losses for next quarter
- Howmet talks about engine challenges
- Takeaway: Fundamental demand is strong, but…
Calhoun’s moonshot for the Next Boeing Airplane
Subscription Required
Now open for all readers.
By Scott Hamilton
David Calhoun
Sept. 4, 2023, © Leeham News: As people try to figure out when Boeing is going to launch a new airplane, confusion continues over semantics and doubts continue over willingness.
The semantics revolves around the words “launch” and “introduce.”
Brian West, the CFO of The Boeing Co., appears at an investors conference Sept. 7 hosted by Jefferies, an investment bank. The event will be webcast; a link is available on the Boeing website. Perhaps West can clarify the timeline, but here is what’s happened recently.
David Calhoun, the CEO of The Boeing Co., said during Boeing’s investors’ day event on Nov. 2 last year that Boeing will “introduce” a new airplane by the middle of the next decade. LNA at that time asked corporate communications if by “introduce” Calhoun meant entry-into-service or a program launch. Corp Com replied that Calhoun meant EIS.
Last month, at another investors conference, a lower level Boeing official said Boeing would “launch” its next airplane by the middle of the next decade. If this is what the official meant, “launching” the next airplane by mid-next decade would represent a major shift. LNA figured the official was mixing words and asked Corp Com for clarity. A spokesman replied, go with Calhoun’s November statement. So, for the moment, let’s take this at face value.
Then there are the skeptics.
UPDATED: Boeing posts quarterly loss; increases Commercial production rates
By Bryan Corliss
July 26, 2023, (c) Leeham News — The Boeing Co. on Wednesday reported a quarterly loss of $99 million, due in part to spending tied to production rate increases in its Commercial Airplanes division.
Boeing said that rates on its 737 line in Renton are increasing to 38 a month. The 787 program has increased rates to four a month, with a plan to increase that to five a month by the end of this year.
Boeing is working with suppliers to get rates up to 50 a month on the 737 line sometime in 2025-26. CEO Dave Calhoun said during Wednesday earning call that demand is there for even higher rates.
“I’d love to get to 60 and the market is there for it,” he said. “The industry is short of airplanes by a relatively large margin.”
However, Boeing and its suppliers need to stabilize production at currently projected rates before considering going beyond what’s already been announced, the CEO said. “We’re going to work hard on stability.”
For this year, Boeing said it expects to deliver between 400 and 450 737s, along with 70 to 80 787s.
- Deliveries up at BCA
- China: Boeing hopes for delivery restart
- 777-X production to restart in 2023
- Calhoun ‘intent on proving’ trans-sonic truss
- BDS continues to struggle
Striking Machinists to vote Thursday on revised contract offer from Spirit
Striking Machinists Union members outside the Spirit AeroSystems plant in Wichita, KS./ Wichita Business Journal photo
(Subscription required)
By Bryan Corliss
June 27, 2023, © Leeham News – Striking Machinists Union members at Spirit AeroSystems in Wichita will vote Thursday on a new contract offer from the company.
“The parties have reached a tentative agreement with the unanimous support of the entire Local 839 bargaining committee,” the union said Tuesday.
The tentative deal, which comes after three days of meetings between Spirit and union negotiators with a federal mediator, replaces the original offer rejected on June 21. Spirit shut down production at the Wichita plant the next day, and the union began picketing outside the factory on Saturday.
Spirit CEO Tom Gentile said his team “listened closely and worked hard in our talks over the last several days to further understand and address the priorities of our IAM-represented employees.”
Senior regional leaders of the International Association of Machinists are strongly recommending the deal.
“The contract is an industry-leading agreement that should make our members extremely proud,” IAM Southern Territory General Vice President Rickey Wallace and his chief of staff, Craig Martin, said in a statement released by the union.
A quick resolution to the walk-out would benefit Boeing. The Spirit plant in Wichita provides 70% of Boeing 737 aerostructures, along with nose sections for all other Boeing aircraft. It also provides components for the Airbus A220.
Thursday’s vote would require a simple majority for ratification. If it fails to get majority support, the strike would continue.
- Deal walks back unpopular health plan changes
- Bigger raises, reduced signing bonus
- Contract would end mandatory weekend overtime
- Union announced vote after meeting with stewards