Odds and Ends of the Paris Air Show, Day 1

Odds and Ends of the Paris Air Show, Day 1

The Air Show began with heavy downpour that delayed traffic and buses, but fortunately not us since we didn’t stay in the City—but rather just 5km up the road. Nonetheless, we got soaked. Yet the rains couldn’t dampen the spirit of either Boeing or Airbus—or the wiseacre at the Show who played the theme song from the old movie, “Singin’ in the Rain” during one of the periodic cloud bursts.

For Boeing, rain notwithstanding, Monday was a very good day for the company. It received 17 orders for the slow-selling 747-8 (15 from one airline), customers unidentified. Boeing also announced orders for the other 7-Series airplanes except the 767. The various order announcements may be found on the Boeing website.

Contrast this to the Paris Air Show in 2009 (Paris runs in odd years, Farnborough in even years). On the Monday and Tuesday, officials vowed the 787 would have its first flight by the end of June. On
Tuesday evening, these officials were called back to Seattle to deal with the fact the test pilots would not fly the airplane because the wing-to-body join was not up to snuff. A few days after the air show ended, the company called off the first flight, to great embarrassment. It was six months before the airplane flew.

At this air show, Boeing has one 787, two 747s, a 737 with the Sky Interior inspired by the 787 and a 777-200LR. This represents the technology The Boeing Co. is known for and the achievements that can be had.

Boeing started the air show with a bang (figuratively). The remaining days should be good as well.

Airbus

If Boeing started the show with a figurative bang, Airbus did literally. The big A380 scraped a wingtip on a building after airport controllers sent them down what turned out to be an incorrect taxiway. The A380 was beached for the first day and probably a few more. This came on the heels of the A400M scrubbing its aerobatics because another test plane had an engine problem. The best aerial display (to us, anyway) was the flight demonstration of the Breitling L-1049 Constellation.

But Airbus began with 100 orders for its A320neo from GECAS and Air Lease Corp., putting COO John Leahy well on the way toward the 600 orders for the airplane that was his goal by the end of the air show. We think it possible he’ll be much closer to 700.

Bombardier

The other manufacturer that has been in the focus is Bombardier. Following a long draught in orders, BBD racked up two in the week before the air show and a third Monday. Two of the three are Unidentified, but now BBD has 113 firm orders and almost as many options. BBD also said today’s customer will be the launch operator.

Rain, rain go away—a rail strike is coming

Buzz among journalists today is that a one-day rail strike is planned for tomorrow. Traffic to and from Le Bourget is bad enough on a good day. Rain makes it worse and a rail strike will paralyze the roads. Except for us. Taxis get to use dedicated bus lanes and we should be at the air show tomorrow in 10 minutes, strike or no strike. The US should take a cue on the dedicate bus lanes. But in typically Washington/Puget Sound fashion, nobody can make a decision let alone one in a timely fashion without some nitwit launching an initiative to reverse the decision.

AirInsight has been doing a running commentary on Monday’s air show events.

Odds and ends on the final pre-Air Show day

 Odds and Ends from the Paris Air Show

  • While an order or two are expected to come from Qatar Airways’ mercurial CEO Akbar Al-Baker, the buzz here already is that U-Turn Al may yet again live up to his nickname. It’s been widely expected that he would, at long last, order the Bombardier CSeries, but Al-Baker is renowned in aviation circles for embarrassing OEMS. He’s done it to Bombardier, Airbus and Boeing and has flipped-flopped in his praise-criticism-praise for the CSeries and the A320neo. For Boeing, it was a major embarrassment when at the Farnborough Air Show in 2008 Boeing issued a press release announcing Qatar ordered the 777 only to rescind it hours later (even though it was correct) at Al-Baker’s insistence. Neither did he show up for the 787 roll-out even though Qatar’s logo was displayed in the roll-call of tail logos and a chair was reserved with his name on it. While Al-Baker recently trashed-talked the A320neo, word now is that he will place an order for the airplane (with CFM LEAP engines, maybe?) for a new Qatar leasing company. He has been feuding with Pratt & Whitney, and if he by-passes the GTF for the A320neo, this could mean PW hasn’t bent over to his demands—and the CSeries could suffer as a result.

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777 remains stalwart at Boeing

Boeing retains full confidence in the 777 despite the frontal attack by Airbus with its A350 family. News, first broken by Leeham News June 5 in this forum, that Airbus and Rolls-Royce will revise slightly the design of the A350-1000 and the engine powering this model—the direct competitor to the 777-300ER—doesn’t seem to faze Boeing.

Officials have held off any decisions on what to do about the future of the 777 until they fully understand the competitive threat posed by the A350-1000. Company CEO Jim McNerney and Jim Albaugh, the CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, others at Boeing and some executives of airlines and lessors said for the better part of a year the -1000 as designed fell short of the performance promised by Airbus.

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Boeing 737 re-engine studies very much alive

Boeing officials like to downplay the prospect of re-engining the venerable 737, but studies are very much alive as the company tries to figure out what the market wants and how to respond to the Airbus A320neo.

Boeing has shifted focus on re-engine studies despite already having a solution, officials said during a pre-Paris Air Show media briefing.

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Airbus parent skeptical of composites for A320 class airplane

Paris Air Show: The chief technology officer for Airbus parent EADS is skeptical of composites for the A320 class of airplane while Boeing considers the material to be the “baseline preference” for what officials call the New Small Airplane (NSA).

The emerging new metal alloys seem to attract more favor  at EADS while Boeing officials are intrigued but still leaning toward the bet they made with the composite 787, which structurally is 52% composite with the fuselage and wings made of the substance.

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Boeing ‘supersite’ may be just super-dream

Visions that Boeing could create a production “supersite” appear to be little more than a “super-dream,” it turns out.

Mike Bair, vice president of Advanced 737 Product Development, first revealed his vision for a production supersite shortly after he was replaced as head of the 787 program by Pat Shanahan, who was imported from what was then known as Boeing’s Integrated Defense Systems. Bair had been in charge of the 787’s vision and production and following serious delays originating with production and design issues, Bair was moved to head future airplane program development.

A supersite is where the assembly line is surrounded by the key producers and supply chain within a short drive and preferably on a massive, single site.

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787 delivery plan targets 3Q

Scott Fancher, VP in charge of the Boeing 787 program, believes delivery of the first Boeing 787 will, at long last, be achieved in the third quarter.

In a briefing in advance of the Paris Air Show, Fancher told media that the tasks remaining to be completed before first delivery to launch customer ANA are declining every day. While Fancher could not assure the media that the Federal Aviation Administration will certify the airplane on the schedule Boeing envisions, neither did he reveal whether there are any potential show-stoppers.

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Airbus confirms A350-1000 news, pushes back model and -800

Airbus and Rolls-Royce confirmed June 18 news we reported 10 days ago: that the A350-1000 will get a more powerful engine and more range. Airbus officials also confirmed that the changes will push the entry-into-service of the -1000 from 2015 to 2017, somewhat later than we reported; and that the smaller A350-800 EIS is also being pushed back from 2014 to 2016.

EIS for the baseline A350-900 remains the same, late 2013.

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We’re off to the Paris Air Show

Today is Thursday and we are on our way to the Paris Air Show.

First up on the schedule is the EADS/Airbus media day on Saturday, with a briefing that is expected to unveil the changes we previously reported to the A350-1000. The briefing day is embargoed to 12:01 am Sunday, June 19 (Paris time), matching the Boeing air show briefing embargo.

We’ll be filing regular reports on this site.

Additionally, Addison Schonland, managing director of AirInsight and of Innovation Analysis Group, will be at the show. He’ll be posting on both sites.

Observations on labor, Boeing

As we prepare to head off to the Paris Air Show, there have been a couple of important developments on the labor front with Boeing.

First, what we consider to be good news.

SPEEA, the engineers union representing Boeing workers primarily in Puget Sound but at a few Boeing facilities elsewhere, proposes entering binding arbitration on wages when contract negotiations begin next year. The contract is amendable at the end of 2012.

Boeing’s reaction is measured but encouraging:

“We are encouraged by this proposal and SPEEA’s offer for a dramatically changed way to negotiate a labor contract. We’ll need some time to review this proposal and engage in some serious internal discussions about it.

“We are in the process of setting up meetings with key SPEEA leaders to further discuss this concept.”

Now for the not-so-good news.
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As entirely expected, the first day of the NLRB hearing on the IAM complaint that Boeing established 787 Line 2 in Charleston in retaliation for the 2008 strike was just procedural and didn’t go anywhere. The judge’s suggestion that the two sides settle their differences also went nowhere.
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We’ve already expressed our view that the NLRB general counsel recommendations, and the IAM demands, are non-starters. Some other agreement is necessary to settle this matter, though we have no clue what might be acceptable to both sides.
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Perhaps the IAM and Boeing should follow SPEEA’s lead and go with an arbitrator. We view settling this before the IAM contract negotiations begin next year to be imperative. Otherwise, this issue will cast a shadow over the negotiations that will only inflame things.