Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Airbus examines lithium battery safety, fire suppression
Note: The NTSB Sunday said it still doesn’t know what caused the lithium ion battery to catch fire on the JAL Boeing 787.
Japan has shifted focus to a monitoring system, not the battery. The battery charger has been cleared by the NTSB.
Japan eased safety standards ahead of service, according to a news report.
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Airbus officials are trying to keep a low profile during the focus on Boeing’s 787 lithium ion battery problems, but since the A350 XWB will also have this battery type, Airbus gets pulled into the story whether it wants to or not.
Airbus officials are concerned whatever the US Federal Aviation Administration decides is ultimately necessary for Boeing to fix the lithium ion problems and restore the 787 to service, it might have a knock-on effect to certifying the A350.
There are several issues: fire prevention; fire suppression; battery safety; risks and so on.
Although Airbus responded to some questions at its annual press conference, and has selectively talked about the Boeing situation since, it’s declined useful comment on some specific questions, notably about fire suppression.
A Boeing Classic airliner and the good ol’ days of flying
We’re taking a break from the near-saturation coverage of the Boeing 787 that began when we stepped off our airplane in Amsterdam Jan. 16 (GMT) to find the ANA incident lighting up our BlackBerry.
Boeing 314 replica at the Foynes museum.
We’re going to talk about another Boeing airliner, a classic airplane of which there were only 12 built and whose useful life was cut short by a World War: the 314, the famed Pan Am Flying Boat Clipper.
As Classic as the 314 Clipper became in aviation history, Boeing’s website is remarkably brief about it. Wikipedia isn’t much more effusive. But the airliner nonetheless evokes fascination. All 12 314s were destroyed or scrapped, yet there have been a couple of attempts to find a couple of the destroyed models–sunk in the Atlantic or Pacific–to recover and restore them. Here’s one such effort announced in 2005. This newsletter contains a wealth of history.
In addition to the usual histories and enthusiast books written about the 314, fiction writer Ken Follett penned one largely set on a westbound trans-Atlantic flight on the Clipper. Follett weaves fact with fiction and this war-time mystery is no different. While we found the book somewhat slow-reading, the descriptions of the challenges facing ocean flying in a slow, pre-war aircraft certainly give you plenty of understanding of what flying was like then.
But we weren’t satisfied with Follett’s description. And we knew how and where we could be. And when we went to Dublin on our recent trip, we make special plans to drive across lower Ireland to Foynes, three hours to the west, the port of entry and exit for Pan Am’s trans-Atlantic flying boat service. Here is the Foynes Flying Boat Museum, where there is a full size replica of the 314 fuselage, triple-tail plane and part of a wing.
Odds and Ends: MIT–787 grounding to 2014; that’s speculation at this stage
MIT on 787 Grounding: MIT says the Boeing 787 might be grounded until 2014, according to this article in Forbes.
But we caution against drawing conclusions. At this point, the MIT guy is giving his best judgment but the NTSB hasn’t determined the cause of the JAL fire, nor what the failures of the related systems may or may not have been.
Updates today: The New York Times has this story and Fox News has this one.
Mystery Photo #9
Our eagle-eye readers are sure to get this one. What airplane is this?
UWE got it correct. It’s the Boeing 314 replica at the Foynes Flying Boat Museum.
We were there last week on our European trip, including a stop in Dublin. Foynes is a three hour drive west.
Odds and Ends: NTSB on 787 Certification; SPEEA countdown
NTSB on 787 Certification: There were a number of small but important news items to come out of the press briefing Thursday from the National Transportation Safety Board were several references to examining the certification involving the batteries of the Boeing 787.
The Federal Aviation Administration previously announced a full 787 program review about the design, production and systems.We’ve already opined about whether the FAA, Boeing and the suppliers can objectively review their own work.
Congress has already said it will hold hearings, a move for which we hold general disdain.
In our coverage yesterday, we had this paraphrased statement by the NTSB chairman:
We are looking at certification standards, whether they were adhered to and whether they were appropriate. What we have seen in these two events do not comport with any design to protect against the battery events. Those systems did not work as intended. We need to understand why.
But we welcome the NTSB certification review. The independent NTSB, staffed by professional investigators, is far more able to assess the work of the FAA and Boeing than is Congress.
There have been many articles that suggest the entire 787 process was a “rush.” Certainly the original time frame–four years from launch to supposed EIS–was unrealistic. But with nearly four years of delays, we’d be hard-pressed to say the program was “rushed.”
There are those who say Boeing believes the grounding was unwarranted. Gordon Bethune, a former Boeing executive and former CEO of Continental Airlines, was blunt in his view that the FAA over-reacted.
We disagree.
Live coverage NTSB 787 briefing
The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) is holding a press briefing at 230 pm (ET) today. We’ll have a running synopsis of it right here.
Deborah Hersman, Chair of NTSB
- Expectation in aviation is never experience a fire on an aircraft. In two weeks time saw two battery events and groundings.
- Significance of these events can’t be overstated.
- Been working since Jan. 7 to understand what happened and why
- Lithium ion battery experienced thermal runaway, short circuits and a fire.
- Still trying to find out why.
- 10:49 to 12:15 fire fighters fought the JAL blaze.
- Fire confined to an area within 20 inches on the battery.
- The batteries are unique to the Boeing 787.
- Read more
NTSB briefing on 787 today
The National Transportation Board will have a briefing today at 2:30 ET. In advance of the briefing, NTSB issued this terse statement:
The following factual information has been developed about the battery: It consists of eight cells of 3.7 volts each. All eight cells had varying degrees of thermal damage. Six of eight cells have been CT scanned and have been disassembled to expose their electrodes. All electrode windings in the battery are in the process of being photo-documented and are undergoing microscopic examination. In the coming days, the remaining two cells will undergo the same examination. Additional information will be provided tomorrow.
Meanwhile, The Seattle Times has this story about the battery system.
The Wall Street Journal has this story about Boeing’s innovation for the 787.
Odds and Ends: SPEEA defers vote; FAA battery apporval
A couple of quick links before we head home:
SPEEA defers vote: This is a surprise to us.
FAA battery approval process: Reuters has this story about the FAA approval process for the battery on the Boeing 787.
Odds and Ends: 787 Update; SPEEA Council meets for membership vote; Asian caution
787 Update: The Wall Street Journal has this lengthy article on the twin-investigations of the US and Japanese authorities into the Boeing 787 incidents. (Subscription required.) Bloomberg News this long article profiling Boeing CEO Jim McNerney’s oversight of the Boeing probe. The Seattle Times has this article about the probe.
This story takes a different angle on the 787 challenges, focusing instead on the coming shortage of engineers.
SPEEA Council Meets Today: The top officials of SPEEA, Boeing’s engineers’ union, meets today to decide on sending the Best and Final Boeing offer to members for a vote to approve or disapprove the contract. A strike vote is also likely to be included.
Caution on Asian Airlines: Germany’s DVB Bank, a major player in commercial aerospace financing and analysis, raises caution about the growth plans of the new Asian airlines, according to this article by Reuters.
American logo reaction mixed: Forbes has this story about the new American Airlines livery, quoting a number of design professionals. This link has a number of suggestions, almost of which which we like better than the tail paint American purchased for God knows how much money.
Odds and Ends:Unsurprisingly–More on the Boeing 787
Unsurprisingly: More on the 787
We’re at the Airline Economics conference in Dublin and not surprisingly the Boeing 787 was part of the cocktail party talk Sunday night.
There is a certain level of bewilderment: Why didn’t t fail safe systems prevent overheating and fire of the batteries? The ANA battery apparently was subject to an over-charge while the JAL battery, according to the NTSB, was not. This adds to the mystery and leads to the Big Question, how long will the 787 be grounded?
The answer, of course, is not known because the cause of the two incidents is not know and therefore neither is the fix. But the general feeling is the 787 will be grounded between two and six weeks.
We shall see.
Meanwhile….
The Seattle Times has this story in which some top industry people suggest Boeing execs are in denial over the 787. These people are unidentified, while another–Gordon Bethune–thinks the FAA overreacted by grounding the airplane.
Aviation Week has this story discussing the nuances of the FAA review of the 787 design, production and certification process.
Aviation Week also has this story about the focus of the investigation on the lithium ion battery.
The Wall Street Journal has this story reporting that the JAL 787 battery did not exceed its design capacity. Subscription required.
The Chicago Sun-Times reported that Congress apparently is ready to have hearings on the Boeing 787. This is premature, and really not necessary in any case.
The forum PPrune, which is pretty well regarded for its high-brow, technical discussions, has a whole host of commentary on the 787 issues. Particularly useful are illustrations and discussion of the battery charging system. The link is here.