Leeham News and Analysis
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Boeing 1Q2026 Earnings: Defense business is booming due to Iran War
By Karl Sinclair
April 22, 2026, © Leeham News: “We’re already seeing higher demand in our defense business given the increased operational tempo, which over time will be a good offset to any potential commercial MRO weakness that results from these higher fuel prices,” The Boeing Company (BA) CEO Kelly Ortberg said today on the 1Q2026 earnings call.
He elaborated further on what the war means financially for the corporation.
“Let me give you a couple of examples of areas where I think this new defense budget is going to benefit us as well. We see $5bn in the budget for F-47. Increasing KC-46 production, $4bn. F-15EX, $3bn. The enhanced strategic SATCOM of $2bn. Massive increases in weapon systems as well. If you look at the backdrop of this, while it is funding new capability, it is really funding additional production of existing systems, which should be low risk for us,” he said.
While the defense sector appears to be the financial beneficiary of the conflict, Boeing sees little downside to commercial orders in the Middle East region.
“Fourteen percent of our unit backlog is in the Middle East for customers, but two-thirds of that backlog delivers out in 2030 and beyond. We have pretty good ability to re-sequence airplanes in the 12 to 18-month timeframe, so I think we will be okay,” he explained.
How Boeing’s WISK technology may apply to its next new airplane
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By Scott Hamilton
Part 3
April 21, 2026, © Leeham News: In 2000-2001, Boeing revealed the concept it called the Sonic Cruiser.
This sleek, futuristic airplane was conceived to cruise just below the speed of sound. Once an airplane crosses this threshold, it flies at supersonic speeds. The Sonic Cruiser’s concept cruising speed was 0.97 Mach.
In 2000-2001, Boeing floated the Sonic Cruiser as a possible new airliner. Cruising just below the speed of sound, the concept died after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Airlines wanted efficiency, not speed. Technology from the Sonic Cruiser were shifted to what became the Boeing 787. Credit: Boeing.
There are all sorts of technical challenges for cruising just below the speed of sound, but this isn’t what killed the project. The terrorist attacks of 9/11 were a game-changer for airlines. They became more interested in dramatically lower fuel consumption. The Sonic Cruiser would burn the same fuel as 1982’s Boeing 767.
So, Boeing scrapped the Cruiser and began applying technology from this to a new idea, the 7E7. Thus, a new, all-composite airplane with an advanced wing design and a spacious, futuristic-looking interior was born: the 787.
Airlines wrecked the spaciousness by putting nine economy seats in a space designed for eight, but the 787 went on to become the best-selling twin-aisle airplane in the world.
Applying new technology from a design that never went beyond the concept stage is not new. Boeing today continues to follow this pattern with its WISK four-passenger autonomous eVTOL.-
Brian Yutko, VP of Product Development for Boeing Commercial Airplanes. Credit: Leeham News.
Brian Yutko, Boeing Commercial Airplanes’ VP of Product Development, last month outlined how WISK’s new technology is likely to migrate to the next new airplane, whatever it is. He spoke at the Pacific Northwest chapter of AIAA (American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics).
WISK is Boeing’s four-passenger autonomous eVTOL. The first test flight was at the end of last year. There were no squawks, he said.
Related Articles
- Boeing’s 30 year march to a new airplane
- What will Boeing’s next new airplane be?
- New technology for Boeing’s next airplane
Preview 1Q2026: How quickly things can change: this time, it’s not Boeing
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By Karl Sinclair
April 20, 2026, © Leeham News: At the very least, The Boeing Company (BA) can point to external forces beyond its control this time for a setback in its road to recovery.
Just when it seemed that a difficult six-year stretch was finally in the rearview mirror, along comes another crisis to spoil the party.
Skyrocketing jet fuel prices caused by an ill-advised “special military operation” into Iran, initiated by President Donald Trump and combined with a blockade of a blockade is throwing an entire industry predicated on long-term projections and steadiness in the markets, into the dustbin.
It is hard to find any positives in what is coming.
No FAA decision by May 1 on extending 777F Classic production
By Scott Hamilton
April 16, 2026, © Leeham News: Boeing won’t get a decision from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) by May 1 on its request to exempt the 777F Classic freighter from an international rule that means production must cease by Dec. 31, 2027.
Boeing filed the request on Dec. 19.
Boeing wants to extend production of its popular 777F Classic beyond Dec. 1, 2027, due to continued certification delays for the 777X program. It asked the FAA for an exemption from emissions rules to do so. Boeing asked for a decision by May 1. This isn’t going to happen. Credit: Lufthansa Cargo.
The FAA will publish a solicitation for public comment in the Federal Register tomorrow. The comment period deadline will be on or about May 7. There is no indication of how quickly the FAA will make a decision after that.
New technology for Boeing’s next new airplane
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By Scott Hamilton
Part 2
Brian Yutko, VP of Product Development for Boeing Commercial Airplanes. Credit: Leeham News.
April 13, 2026, © Leeham News: As Boeing considers its next new airplane, whatever it is, there is a plethora of issues that must be considered.
Last week’s article outlined a high-level view of Boeing’s future airplane programs. Today, LNA details some specifics that Boeing must consider before launching a new airplane program.
Brian Yutko, the VP of Product Development at Boeing Commercial Airplanes, declined to address any questions about new airplane development. However, at the retiree meeting of the Pacific Northwest chapter of AIAA (American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics) last month, Yutko discussed some of the issues Boeing will face in the coming years.
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Bjorn’s Corner: Blended Wing Body Airliners. Part 5
By Bjorn Fehrm
April 10, 2026, ©. Leeham News: We have started a series of articles on the Blended Wing Body (BWB) as a potentially more efficient design for passenger-carrying airliners than the classical Tube-And-Wing (TAW) configuration.
In last week’s article, we discussed how the wingspan is an important factor in an airliner’s takeoff performance. The induced drag is about 85-90% of the drag at the critical V2 point after rotation, where regulations require that a twin-engined airliner be able to fly on one engine with a climb rate of 2.4%.
We now go through the entire mission for a BWB airliner and compare its drag characteristics with those of a classical Tube-And-Wing (TAW) design.
Figure 1. The JetZero Z4 BWB. Source: JetZero.
Boeing’s next airplane will eventually come; what will it be?
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By Scott Hamilton
Part 1
April 9, 2026, © Leeham News: CEO Kelly Ortberg has been clear: there won’t be any new airplane program launched until the airlines are ready, the technology is ready, and Boeing is ready.
Ortberg became CEO of The Boeing Co. on Aug. 8, 2024. One of his first decisions was to kill the research and development of a concept called the X-66A, the moniker for a Transonic Truss Brace Wing (TTBW) single-aisle airliner that could replace the 737 MAX in the coming decade.
However, he said that Boeing, coupled with NASA, would continue to research and develop an advanced wing for a new, highly efficient airplane. NASA, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, has a long history of partnering with Boeing to evaluate new aerospace development.
Ortberg’s decision to kill the X-66A demonstrator project reversed a decision by the man he replaced, David Calhoun, who was the TTBW’s leading proponent within Boeing. Calhoun became CEO in January 2020 when his predecessor, Dennis Muilenburg, was fired during the prolonged 737 MAX crisis.
Figure 1. The Boeing-NASA concept X-66A TTBW airplane. Source: NASA.
One of Calhoun’s first decisions was to kill the R&D project of a New Midmarket Airplane (NMA), a twin-aisle design roughly the same dimensions as the Boeing 767-200ER and -300ER. The NMA had been under study since at least 2012. Muilenburg was on the path to seek board approval to launch this program in 2019, when the MAX was grounded by global regulators. Calhoun, the lead director, didn’t support the plane. With Boeing’s cash-cow 737 grounded, Calhoun used the crisis to kill the NMA. Given the billions of dollars in losses Boeing was and would incur, the decision was an obvious one.
Related Article
Boeing’s 30-year march to its next new airplane
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Open to All Readers
By Scott Hamilton
Background
April 6, 2026, © Leeham News: Depending on what starting point you want to choose, it will be up to 30 years between brand new, clean sheet airplane designs at The Boeing Co.
Boeing announced its 787 program in December 2003, with a formal launch the following spring. The entry-into-service goal for the 787 was May 2008. Boeing planned to design a replacement for the aging 737 platform after the 787 entered service. A new design for replacing the 777 was supposed to come after that.
The 787’s EIS date came and went as design and production problems added up to 3 ½ years of delay.
With cost overruns, deferred production, and deferred tooling costs totaling more than $50bn, plus several billion more dollars written off for research and development and abnormal production costs, the 787 still has more than $14bn in deferred costs to recover.
Delays and cost overruns hurt the 747-8 program. The 2019 21-month grounding of the 737 MAX resulted in billions more in charges. The January 2024 door plug blowout on a new Alaska Airlines 737-9 hurt recovery. Scrutiny by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) continues to this day. Production rates for the 737 and 787 are well below those that predate the MAX grounding. Certification of the 737-7, 737-10, and 777X remains a hope, not a reality, so far.
A plethora of losses, charges, and delays in defense and space programs added to the losses. Boeing’s long-term debt in 2018, its last normal year, was over $10bn. Today, it’s over $54bn, with big repayments coming soon.
Boeing’s next new airplane program remains years away.
What will Boeing’s next new airplane be? We have a pretty good idea. A new series beginning Thursday explores this question. Credit: Leeham News.
Boeing, once the king of freighters, falls behind Airbus going forward
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By Scott Hamilton and Bjorn Fehrm
April 2, 2026, © Leeham News: Boeing is no longer “freighter king.”
The March 16 order by cargo carrier Atlas Air for 20 A350Fs gives Airbus a 60% market share of orders for the next generation of freighters. Since the dawn of the jet age, Boeing has had a lock on jet airliner freighters. It vanquished Douglas Aircraft Co and its successor, McDonnell Douglas. Airbus had modest success with the new build A300-600F, with about 100 ordered. But Airbus bombed with the new production A330-200F; only 38 were sold.
Figure 1. The backlog of new generation freighter orders gives Airbus a 60% market share. Sources: Airbus, Boeing.
However, Airbus now has 101 orders for the A350F. Boeing has just 68 for the competing 777-8F. This is a far cry from the 359 777F Classics, based on the 777-200LR, that have been ordered. There are 47 in the backlog. Production will conclude at the end of next year due to emissions standards that the old generation 777F does not meet. Boeing asked the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for an exemption to build 35 more. It requested a decision by May 1.
Figure 2. Boeing dominated the jet freighter market from the 1960s. The recent, old generation freighter market was still overwhelmingly owned by Boeing. Sources: Airbus, Boeing.
Additionally, Boeing sold 288 767-300ERFs. There are 18 in the backlog. Production concludes at the end of next year.
How did Boeing lose its overwhelming dominance in the freighter market? How did Airbus overtake Boeing, as it did in the early 2000s in the passenger airplane arena?
The answers about Boeing rest in a combination of negative fallout from the 737 MAX crisis, a suspension of production of the 787, shifting priorities and Boeing’s inbred arrogance.
For Airbus, the answer lies in the tortoise-and-hare analogy and a willingness to listen to potential customers more than Boeing did in key campaigns.
Boeing’s Starliner history shows safety, quality concerns exist systemically across the company
Editor’s Note: The National Aeronautics and Space Agency (NASA) on Feb. 19 released its investigative report of the failures in 2024 of the Boeing Starliner space vehicle. Defects in the Starliner resulted in its crew being housed in the International Space Station for nine months before being returned to earth in a SpaceX capsule.
Boeing Starliner, docked at the International Space Station. Source: Boeing.
The investigation into the failures faulted NASA and Boeing. The 311 page report was triggered by the Starliner incident, and examines the NASA-Boeing Defense, Space and Security (BDS) cultures that led to the Starliner problems. The Boeing Co. is engaged in high profile efforts to change the culture at Boeing Commercial Airplanes (BCA). The Starliner incidents reveal similar cultural and safety issues at BDS that corporate CEO Kelly Ortberg must address.
The NASA report may be downloaded here: nasa-Starliner report 021926
In this Special Report, LNA dissects the NASA study. The shortcomings at BDS are eerily similar to those at BCA.
Special Report
By the Leeham News Team
Three Disasters
Lion Air and Ethiopian Airlines
The first Boeing 737-8 delivered, in May 2017, which happened to be to Lion Air. Source: Leeham News.
March 30, 2026, (c) Leeham News: On Oct. 29, 2018, Lion Air Flight 610—a Boeing 737 MAX 8—crashed into the Java Sea, killing all 189 aboard. The Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS), a flight control system that Boeing had withheld information about from airlines and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)—including its existence and how it works—drove the aircraft into an unrecoverable dive.
The pilots had never been trained on it because Boeing determined that disclosing MCAS would require simulator training, which would make the MAX less competitive against the Airbus A320neo. Southwest Airlines, for example, which ordered hundreds of MAXes, required Boeing to pay $1m per airplane if simulator training was required.
Less than five months later, on March 10, 2019, Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 crashed under virtually identical circumstances. It was another MAX 8 with another MCAS-driven dive. Another 157 people were killed. Combined death toll: 346 passengers and crew, plus one recovery diver in the Lion Air accident. The global fleet was grounded for 21 months.
Congressional investigations revealed what investigators called Boeing’s “culture of concealment” and the FAA’s systematic overreliance on Boeing’s Organization Designation Authorization (ODA) for self-certification. While federal government agencies routinely designate company employees to represent the overseeing agencies, the level of the FAA’s hand-off to Boeing came under withering criticism.
Following the long recovery period, the FAA clamped down on Boeing’s production of the 737 and to a lesser extent (and for different reasons), production of the 787. By late 2022, Boeing executives appeared confident that BCA was on the path to normal operations.