Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Supply chain continues to bedevil Airbus, Boeing
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By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 8, 2025, © Leeham News: Supply chain difficulties continue to bedevil Airbus and Boeing deliveries this year.
Embraer also has had some impact from supply chain disruptions, but at a much lower rate.
November deliveries by Airbus and Boeing are lower than in September and October. Boeing delivered 53 and 55 aircraft, respectively—but only 42 in November.
Airbus and Boeing are struggling to meet production goals because the supply chain still can’t delivery parts and engines on time. In some cases, quality also is a factor. Photo Credit: Airbus.
Airbus delivered 78 aircraft in October and 73 in September. Defective panels delivered by a supplier, which Airbus did not identify, for the A320 family were discovered, impacting total November deliveries (72) and anticipated December deliveries. Airbus now expects to deliver 790 aircraft this year compared with its original guidance of 823. Airbus delivered 84 aircraft in November last year. Airbus needs to deliver 133 aircraft this month to meet its revised, lower goal.
In addition, delays in receiving interiors, mainly from Collins and Safran but also from others, caused Airbus and Boeing to delay widebody deliveries. Continuing shortages of engines from Pratt & Whitney and CFM (GE and Safran) for the GTF and LEAP impacted Airbus, Boeing and Embraer. PW continues to divert new production GTFs to AOG (Aircraft on Ground) A220s, A320s and E-Jets. A strike at GE interrupted CFM LEAP deliveries.
Airbus and Boeing want to increase production rates next year and in following years. The supply chain is the driving factor.
Aerospace analyst Ken Herbert from RBC Capital Markets raises some caution from the supply chain in his survey for the second half of 2025. In a report issued on Dec. 4, Herbert wrote, “Just when confidence in the aerospace OE outlook appears to have inflected, we get a reminder from Airbus (ELAC software, metal fuselage panel quality escape) that the industry is still dependent on a relatively fragile supply chain, and we believe the supply chain will remain part of the A&D narrative for the foreseeable future.”
Boeing CFO Jay Malave: Priorities are debt, investments, then shareholders
By Karl Sinclair
Dec. 3, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing’s chief financial officer outlined the priorities for the use of cash going forward, and it reaffirms what has been obvious but largely unstated: debt reduction is the top priority.
Speaking at the UBS Global Industrials and Transportation Conference, The Boeing Company’s (BA) new Chief Financial Officer (CFO) Jay Malave reiterated the corporation’s prudent position on where Free Cash Flow (FCF) was going to be spent.
“I think that between the balance that we have today, the cash flow that we’re going to be generating, that will give us plenty of optionality to pay down the debt, to invest in the future, and start thinking at the right time about investor returns,” Malave said.
Boeing CFO Jay Malave. Source: Boeing.
This is quite a departure from the position of the previous CFO Greg Smith, who once reported that Boeing was committed to returning 100% of FCF to investors. It is very much in line with the new culture that CEO Kelly Orberg is attempting to instill in the company.
Boeing’s “hangover” of the MAX is over, says former acting FAA administrator who dealt with crisis
By Scott Hamilton
Dan Elwell, former acting administrator of the Federal Aviation Administration. Credit: Alaska Airlines.
Dec. 3, 2025, © Leeham News, Washington (DC): Boeing’s “hangover” and PTSD (post-traumatic stress syndrome) following the 737 MAX crisis of 2019 and beyond is over, says the former acting administrator of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) who had to deal with the fallout before Congress.
Dan Elwell faced investigations from hostile Congressional hearings, a criminal probe, civil litigation, an Inspector General’s inquiry from the FAA’s parent department, and in-depth reporting from many newspapers and television media in the months after the second of two MAXes crashed in March 2019, five months after the first fatal accident. The probes, lawsuits and civil and criminal discoveries revealed serious safety and quality control shortfalls at Boeing and shortcomings of the FAA’s oversight of the company and certification of the MAX.
“The FAA still is sort of feeling and nursing sort of the wounds,” Elwell said during an appearance on Dec. 2 at the monthly luncheon of the AeroClub of Washington (DC). “There was a certain amount of MAX PTSD after the pressures that hung around for a while” at Boeing and the FAA.
Elwell said that the biggest challenge he felt was trying to get both the agency and the “really outstanding engineers and people” who work at Boeing to sort of put it behind them, and do what they know best with confidence. Then, Elwell said, it was necessary to support those who were doing what they know how to do best.
“I think…the FAA is getting there,” he said, adding that Boeing is also making progress. Then company is meeting Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) that they’re following, and recently received FAA approval to increase the 737 production rate from 38/mo to 42/mo. Boeing wants to further increase rates to 47/mo and 52/mo in two “rate breaks” next year.
Book excerpt: Legacy Boeing’s last hurrah
Dec. 1, 2025, (c) Leeham News: In October, Boeing announced another delay in certification of the 777X and a delay from 2026 to 2027 of entry-into-service of the -9 model. Tim Clark, the president of Emirates Airline, is vocal about his dismay over the continuing delays. Emirates has more 777Xs on order than any other customer. The first airplane was due in early 2020. Had it been on time, Clark says Emirates would have had 110 in service by now.
During the Dubai Air Show, he told the financial news network CNBC that he believes Boeing can restore its glory. He doesn’t know or predict when. But legacy Boeing’s last hurrah was the development of what is now called by some to be the “Classic” 777.
Scott Hamilton’s new book, The Rise and Fall of Boeing and The Way Back, details not only how Boeing lost its glory and how it’s recovering. It tells the story of legacy Boeing’s last hurrah: development of the 777 Classic.
Here is an excerpt.
Emirates seeks larger A350, 777 after big Dubai order
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By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 24, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing landed a big order for its 777-9 at the Dubai Air Show last week, valued at $38bn at list prices for 65 airplanes ($575.8m each). Emirates Airline, already Boeing’s largest customer for the airplane, now has 270 777Xs on order. This represents 43% of the firm orders once added to Boeing’s backlog.
Rendering of an Emirates Airline Boeing 777-9. Credit: Boeing.
Emirates simultaneously said it will support a feasibility study to stretch the 777-9 to a larger capacity 777-10. Airline president Tim Clark has been urging Boeing to launch the larger derivative.
Also at the air show, Airbus Commercial airplanes CEO Christian Scherer said Airbus is revisiting a study whether to stretch the A350-1000 (the same size as the Boeing 777-300ER) to a larger “A350-2000” model. This would be the same size as the 777-9.
However, don’t look for Airbus to launch a stretch any time soon, if at all. Airbus previously studied stretching the -1000 and decided the market couldn’t support two airplanes the size of the 777-9. Furthermore, the best target market for these aircraft—the Middle East—already accounts for about 63% of 777X orders before the latest Emirates deal, highly limiting the market potential for an X competitor.
Flydubai orders 737 MAX, in addition to A320neos, at Dubai Air Show
Nov. 19, 2025, © Leeham News: Yesterday flydubai ordered the 150 Airbus A320neo family at the Dubai Air Show. Today, it signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) for 75 Boeing 737 MAXes and options for 75 more. Flydubai may switch its orders between the 737-8, -9 or -10. The airline already operates the 737 NG and 737 MAX.
Emirates Airline placed an order for eight more Airbus A350-900s, bringing its total order to 73. The list price is $3.4bn for the new deal, or an average of $422m per aircraft.
Buraq Air of Libya signed an MOU for 10 A320neo family aircraft. It becomes a new Airbus customer.
Silk Way West Airlines of Azerbaijan ordered two A350Fs freighter aircraft. The cargo airline now has a total order to four A350Fs.
Dubai Air Show, Day 1: Boeing’s 777X; Anticipated orders
Boeing Insists 777X Widebody Is Worth the Wait
By Charles Alcock • Managing Editor
Charlotte Bailey • Writer
Nov. 16, 2025, © AIN: Twelve years since Boeing launched the 777X program at the 2013 Dubai Airshow, the OEM is back on-site with both its 777-9 test aircraft and a renewed confidence that delays to the protracted certification schedule are finally over.
With Boeing continuing to steadily work through FAA type inspection authorization (TIA) test phases, head of airline marketing for the 777X Justin Hale has a “high confidence” the airplane will enter service by 2027, with certification forthcoming as soon as 2026, he told reporters during a briefing on the eve of the Dubai Airshow on Sunday.
The full story may be found here.
UPS MD-11F crash, theft of trade secrets lawsuit impacts on cargo market
By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 11, 2025, © Leeham News: The Nov. 7 UPS MD-11F crash and a new trade theft secret lawsuit are likely to impact the air freighter new sales and conversion markets.
Boeing MD-11Fs of FedEx and UPS were grounded following the Nov. 7 crash of a UPS MD-11. Credit: NBC News.
Boeing recommended grounding MD-11Fs pending inspections of the engines and pylons, a move mandated within a day by the Federal Aviation Administration. The cause of the crash is unknown. The No. 1 engine separated from the widebody cargo airliner on takeoff from the Louisville (KY) airport. The airplane had passed the V1 commitment speed when a fire broke out, and the engine and pylon separated from the airplane.
The cause of the fire and the sequence of separation remain under investigation. More than a dozen people were killed, including the three pilots on the plane and the rest on the ground, when the plane crashed into an industrial park.
A theft of trade secrets lawsuit was filed on Oct. 20 in the US Federal District Court in Oregon by P2F company Precision Aircraft Solutions LLC against Mammoth Freighters, also a P2F conversion company. Precision converted Boeing 757s from passenger to freighter configuration and now converts Airbus A321ceos. Mammoth converts Boeing 777-200LRs and 777-300ERs.
One of the principals of Precision, William Wagner, left Precision and years later co-founded Mammoth. About 20 employees from Precision went to work for Mammoth and, for a time, Precision and Mammoth cooperated on the latter’s process to achieve a Supplemental Type Certificate (STC) for its conversions, according to the complaint filed in federal court. Precision alleges that its former employees signed Non-Disclosure Agreements that restricted the use of its trade secrets for the benefit of Mammoth.
The unrelated UPS crash and the lawsuit may have ramifications for the respective segments of the air cargo market.
Boeing breaks ground to double 787 FAL capacity; analysis of orders/options
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By the Leeham News Team
Nov. 10, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing on Friday broke ground at its Charleston (SC) 787 production campus for a second final assembly line (FAL) building to meeting growing demand for the airplane.
Boeing’s current footprint in Charleston (SC). (Note the airplane-shaped park in the upper left.) Credit: Boeing.
Boeing has announced more than 300 orders for the 787-9 and 787-10 this year. There are now more than 1,000 787s in backlog. More than 1,200 have been delivered.
There are hundreds of more options for the airplane and even more Letters of Intent.
Boeing will construct a building, left, of 1.2m sf–the size of the Composite Wing Center in Everett (WA), doubling 787 assembly capacity. Credit: Boeing.
Boeing currently is assembling seven aircraft a month at the plant, its peak at this facility before the COVID pandemic began in March 2020. The Charleston facility then matched the 7/mo also being assembled at Boeing’s Everett plant. Following COVID and the virtual halt in production during much of the two year effects of the pandemic, Boeing consolidated all 787 production in Charleston.
The facility currently has a maximum capacity of 10/mo. CEO Kelly Ortberg said on the 3Q2025 earnings call that that the expansion will double the capacity.
“We’re going to double the…manufacturing footprint. We don’t need double, but it also gives us a lot more flexibility for some storage space as well. We think that the market demand will allow us to get to rates in the teens, and that’s what we’re focused on,” Ortberg said on the call. The plant will open in 2028, according to current planning.
LNA has analyzed Boeing’s current 787 backlog, using the database dated Oct. 7 from Cirium. The database trails Boeing’s website backlog of 1,048 as of Oct. 31, showing a firm order backlog of 997. However, Cirium’s data also shows Boeing’s Options and Letters of Intent. Delivery years are shown in all four categories.
Using this data, LNA plotted the entire delivery stream, extending to 2043.
Despite similarities to other accidents, don’t draw conclusions in UPS accident
By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 5, 2025, © Leeham News: Yesterday’s crash of a UPS Boeing (McDonnell Douglas) MD-11F evokes memories of American Airlines flight 191 in Chicago and the Air France Concorde crash in Paris.
The moment of impact of a UPS Boeing MD-11F freight that crashed on take-off from the Louisville (KY) airport. Credit: USA Today.
The UPS plane’s No. 1 engine apparently separated from the wing at around V1, the take-off speed, at the Louisville (KY) airport, where UPS’ main US hub is located. This is similar to the engine separation of the No. 1 engine of the American McDonnell Douglas DC-10 at a similar point on its take-off roll at O’Hare Airport. (This was the first aviation accident that I had as a reporter.)
American’s flight did not catch fire on take-off, but the slats on the left wing retracted after the engine damaged the hydraulic lines along the leading edge of the wing. There is a famous aviation picture of the DC-10, with its wings vertical to the ground, missing the engine, seconds before the plane crashed in a trailer park next to the airport. Valves were later added to the DC-10 to prevent such a retraction in the future.
The UPS MD-11, a derivative of the DC-10, did catch fire. So did the Air France Concorde, after running over a part that was on the runway at Charles de Gaulle Airport that fell off a preceding flight (ironically, a Continental Airlines DC-10). The Concorde’s tires threw the part into the wing fuel tank, which ignited. There is a famous picture of the Concorde, committed to take off, aloft on fire.
The UPS flight sequence, captured on multiple videos, is eerily similar to the American and Air France crashes. One video shows the MD-11 with its wings vertical to the ground, as the left wing sliced through a building seconds before impact.
Despite similarities, exercise caution in drawing conclusions.