Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Change Incorporation, Configuration Control, and the High Cost of Getting It Wrong
Editor’s note: Boeing spent years doing rework on the 737 MAX and the 787 after the former’s grounding following two fatal crashes and the latter’s production flaws. “Shadow factories” began the 737’s rework after the 21-month grounding was terminated in November 2020. The last of 450 airplanes was delivered in 2025. Deliveries of the 787 were suspended in October 2020; 110 aircraft needed rework. The last of this inventory was cleared in 2025. This work is also known as “Change Incorporation.” Thirty-five 737 MAX 7s and 10s have been built and await certification, which idepends on design changes that must be retrofitted once the Federal Aviation Administration signs off. Change incorporation took 3-4 months for the 787s and was measured in months for the 737s.
More than 30 777-9s have been built while this program awaits FAA certification. This, too, will require Change Incorporation. Boeing has not revealed what changes the FAA will require, although revised flight control software is known to be one element. Nor has Boeing revealed how long Change Incorporation for the 777-9s will take.
LNA’s news team explains what Change Incorporation is, how it is undertaken, and the implications for the 777-9s in inventory.
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By the Leeham News Team
March 18, 2026, © Leeham News: In the commercial aviation industry, building aircraft before the type certificate is formally issued is not unusual. It is an economic necessity.
Undelivered Boeing 777-9s (among other aircraft) are lined up in open-air storage in this undated 2025 Google Earth photo of Paine Field, Everett (WA). The 777s are the “green” airplanes, though more are also painted in other colors.
Launching a production line months or years before final regulatory approval allows manufacturers to meet early delivery commitments, recoup development investment more quickly, and maintain customer relationships. But this strategy carries a profound and often underestimated technical liability: when the approved design specification continues to evolve through flight test, the already-built airframes must be brought into conformance with the final certified configuration. This is the essence of the Change Incorporation process.
The Boeing 777X program offers the most current illustration of this challenge. As of early 2026, Boeing has assembled more than 30 777-9 airframes, all built to early-production standards, while the aircraft’s type certificate is still in progress.
At the same time, the January 2024 in-flight separation of a door plug from Alaska Airlines Flight 1282—an event traceable directly to failures in Boeing’s parts removal and reinstallation process—has thrown the Change Incorporation process into the spotlight.
These two stories are connected by a single systemic thread: the consequences of inadequate configuration discipline in a complex, multi-stakeholder manufacturing environment.
Boeing says 1Q deliveries will be lower than forecast, but will catch up later
By Scott Hamilton
Jay Malave, EVP and CFO of The Boeing Co. Credit: Boeing.
March 17, 2026, © Leeham News: Boeing’s deliveries in the first quarter may be lower than originally forecast, but will catch up throughout the remainder of this year, the company’s chief financial officer said today.
Jay Malave said that a quality defect on the 737 line affected about 25 airplanes. The defect was spotted by Boeing and involves scratched wiring traced to a miscalibrated machine at a Boeing facility.
“We’ve got about a population of about 25 aircraft that are impacted by that, so they’ll have to undergo some level of rework,” Malave said. “You’re talking around three days of rework, so not a significant amount. We have resumed deliveries as of last week. The impact here is really one of timing.
“We’ll see about 10 aircraft we were expecting to deliver around 120 737s in the first quarter, so we’ll slip about 10 of those deliveries into the second quarter. [The impact is] fairly limited in the grand scheme of things.”
Deliveries of the 787 will be slower and lower than hoped due to the timing of certification for premium-class interiors.
Iran war threatens Boeing in more ways than just airliner orders
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Editor’s note: When LNA is asked about the progress of Boeing’s recovery, we always express a caveat before answering: It depends on events outside Boeing’s control. The Iran war is just such an event.
By the Leeham News Team
March 17, 2026, © Leeham News: The paradox at the heart of modern commercial aviation is that the materials engineered to insulate airlines from oil price volatility are themselves creatures of the petrochemical complex.
Boeing’s 777X and 787 programs, with their heavy use of composites, face high risks of disruptions and costs due to the Iran War. Source: Boeing.
Carbon fiber composites reduce fuel burn by 20% over legacy aluminum airframes. Yet the polyacrylonitrile precursor fiber, the epoxy matrix resins, the autoclave energy—the entire manufacturing stack—runs on oil. When the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed on Feb. 28, it did not merely threaten jet fuel supply chains. It aimed directly at the raw material foundation of Boeing’s two most consequential programs: the 787 Dreamliner and the 777X.
Airbus faces similar challenges for the A350. A major Boeing composites supplier, Toray Industries, is used in secondary structures, and the impact is far smaller. US-based Hexcel is a major composites supplier to Airbus through its European operations.
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- Middle East impact on Airbus, Boeing
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Air Lease merger this year creates new lessor powerhouse
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By Karl Sinclair
March 16, 2026, © Leeham News: Aircraft lessor giant Air Lease Corporation (ALC) of Los Angeles (CA) closed the books on 2025 and reported record figures.
In early 2026, the company will cease to exist. The Sumitomo Corporation, SMBC Aviation Capital, Apollo, and Brookfield funds are expected to acquire Air Lease Corporation for $7.4bn in the early part of this year and rebrand it the Sumisho Air Lease Corporation (SALC). SALC will be a new powerhouse lessor that Airbus, Boeing, and the engine makers will be dealing with.
According to ALC, Air Lease Class A common stockholders will receive $65 in cash for each share of Class A common stock of Air Lease held immediately prior to the effective time of the merger.
SMBC will then service most of Sumisho Air Lease Corp.’s fleet, significantly expanding its service portfolio.
Thus, the world’s second-largest commercial aircraft lessor will be born, as the third and fourth largest lessors merge (by fleet size in the 2025 Airfinance Global annual lessors analysis), second only to Aercap of Dublin (IR).
Source: Airfinance Global 2025 Annual Lessor Report.
Middle East conflict impact on Airbus, Boeing
By Scott Hamilton
March 10, 2026, © Leeham News: The end of the war in the Middle East appears to be on a path of continued uncertainty and confusion, with no end in sight.
Middle Eastern airlines and lessors have 1,710 airplanes on order. The Mideast represents 9% of Airbus’ backlog. It represents 14% of Boeing’s backlog. Airbus has a 43% share of the Mideast backlog, while Boeing has a 57% share. Embraer is a fractional player.
Although President Donald Trump has already said the war has been “won” and could be over soon, he’s also provided mixed messages. Trump says that a cessation will be done with the concurrence of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a notoriously anti-Iranian leader who urged Trump to engage in the first place, according to multiple media reports.
Trump also said that bombing may continue despite hinting that the war’s end is near.
For the airlines, the continued conflict means vastly reduced service. More of the current fleets are grounded than in service. For lessors, many have airplanes with Middle Eastern carriers, and a few whose home is in the region, some have outstanding orders with Airbus and Boeing. Lenders may face requests to restructure debt payments the longer the conflict continues.
Here’s a snapshot of the backlog exposure Airbus and Boeing have with the Middle East.
Figure 1. The Airbus-Boeing firm order backlog market share in the Middle East. Sources: Airbus, Boeing.
Airbus leans toward launching “A220-500”, but faces challenges
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By Bjorn Fehrm and Scott Hamilton
Feb. 19, 2026, © Leeham News: Airbus appears likely to launch the long-discussed stretched version of the A220-300, nominally called the -500, as early as the Farnborough Air Show in July.
Figure 1. This illustration, created years ago by Leeham News, shows the concept of a “simple stretch” for the “A220-500.” This illustration does not include some aerodynamic improvements LNA believes are necessary. Airbus is already planning a high-density version of the A220-300. Credit: Leeham News.
Lars Wagner, the new CEO of Airbus Commercial Airplanes, told Reuters in January that he favors the new aircraft, which would seat 165 passengers in single class configuration. Wagner assumed the position on Jan. 1. His predecessor, Christian Scherer, had long favored the stretch.
Wagner didn’t provide Reuters with any details about the new airplane. But Scherer told LNA last year that the debate within Airbus was whether to pursue a “simple” stretch or one with a larger wing and more powerful engines. A simple stretch trades range for capacity. Scherer told LNA that customers told Airbus they were more interested in capacity than range.
Figure 2: The ranges of the A220-300 and the proposed A220-500, using airline rules and calculated by LNA’s Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM). Air France (CDG) and Delta Air Lines (ATL) have expressed interest in a stretched A220-300. Credit: Leeham News.
LNA confirms that a simple stretch is the preferred option. However, this does not mean that Airbus won’t tweak aerodynamics to improve operating and take-off performance and maintain as much range as possible. LNA has a good understanding of the likelihood of these tweaks and of the current proposed configuration of the A220-500. Using our proprietary Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM), the -500 should have a range about 13% lower than the -300.
LNA’s APCM analysis is based on today’s information. The data is subject to final details when Airbus completes the design freeze.
Here’s our analysis.
Recovery of the 737 program is unglamorous and arduous: Boeing exec
By Scott Hamilton
Katie Ringgold, VP and general manager of the 737 program. Credit: Boeing.
Feb. 10, 2026, © Leeham News: Boeing’s head of the 737 program yesterday outlined how the company is recovering from six years of crisis, quality control and safety issues and repeated production slowdowns and shutdowns.
Katie Ringgold, the Vice President and General Manager, was at the annual Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance (PNAA) conference in suburban Seattle, said the long road to recovery—which has a few years more to go—has been an “unglamorous” task.
“We took time to deeply reflect on our production system. And some of that you know of what we’ve been accomplishing over the last two years. And make meaningful and arduous changes,” she said. “And I use that word intentionally. It wasn’t just hard changes. It was arduous changes.”
Ringgold noted that Boeing is now producing the 737 at the rate of 42 aircraft per month. This rate was achieved in the final months of last year. Boeing publicly has repeatedly said its goal is to increase the production rate in increments of five approximately every six months.
Ringgold, during her stage appearance, confirmed reporting by LNA in January that the 737’s North Line at the Everett widebody plant will be activated about mid-year. In this report, LNA noted that Boeing’s current 737 production plant in Renton will be capped at a rate of 47/mo. The North Line will be needed for Boeing to achieve rate 52 and beyond, ultimately toward a target of 63/mo.
Despite some turbulence, SPEEA exec sees progress under Boeing’s Ortberg
By Scott Hamilton
Ray Goforth, executive director of SPEEA, Boeing’s engineer and technicians union. Credit: SPEEA.
Feb. 10, 2026, © Leeham News—Seattle: When Kelly Ortberg became CEO of The Boeing Co. in August 2024, he said that one of his first tasks was to reset the testy labor relations with the unions.
The results so far have been mixed. Ortberg’s immediate labor contract challenge was with the powerful IAM 751 union. The contract for its 32,000 workers expired 34 days after Ortberg assumed office, and negotiations were underway. Union members went on a 53-day strike before the financially ailing Boeing agreed to most of the demands.
Contract negotiations with a branch of the Teamsters union were concluded successfully without a strike. However, a different district of the IAM, 837 at the St. Louis defense plant, walked out for more than 100 days before a contract was accepted.
A new contract with the newly acquired Spirit AeroSystems plant in Wichita (KS), represented by the Society of Professional Engineering Employees in Aerospace (SPEEA), was agreed without a strike. SPEEA praised the contract as achieving its goals.
Next up is the contract with Boeing’s engineers and technicians, also represented by SPEEA. This contract expires this fall. The union’s negotiating teams will be appointed this month. Procedural meetings with Boeing will begin afterward before proposals are exchanged and negotiations begin.
SPEEA has been at odds with Boeing before and after Ortberg’s appointment as CEO. Ray Goforth, executive director of the union, said in an interview with LNA last week that he’s seen improvements in its relationship with Boeing under Ortberg. But on the day of the interview, SPEEA accused Boeing of violating the current contract by reassigning up to 300 engineering jobs from the Seattle area to the 787 production facility in Charleston (SC).
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- Boeing touts safety progress but opposes SPEEA initiative
- Boeing reports mixed employee survey results; intimidation, retaliation still reported
- Strike slowed progress toward SMS, ASAP initiatives
- Boeing, SPEEA at impasse over ASAP safety program
Few orders announced today at Singapore Air Show
Feb. 3, 2026, © Leeham News: There were few orders announced today at the Singapore Air Show.
Boeing and ATR were the only announced commercial orders. Embraer revealed a previously announced order for the C-390 tanker-transport. And that was it.
In other news from LNA’s news parter, AIN:
Net Zero by 2050 is beyond reach, but R&D, SAF work continues
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By Scott Hamilton and Bjorn Fehrm
Feb. 2, 2026, © Leeham News: When the International Air Transport Assn. (IATA) adopted its carbon Net Zero by 2050 policy at the October 2021 
Annual General Meeting, it included milestones for increasing the use of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). The outline also included the adoption of alternative energy technologies like hydrogen, batteries, and hybrids.
Tim Clark, president of Emirates Airline. A voice of reality when it comes to eco-aviation. Credit: Emirates Airline.
Some, including LNA, quickly concluded that the timeline and some of the technologies were unachievable. Tim Clark, the president of Emirates Airline, attended the IATA AGM. Don’t make promises you can’t keep, he told the assembly.
Since then, airlines across the globe have relaxed or even abandoned the IATA goals for their internal efforts.
SAF remains an elusive alternative. So does hydrogen. Battery-powered eVTOLs appear just around the corner for certification. However, developers of battery-powered commuter and regional airliners hit the reality that the weight of the batteries needed for even flights of a few hundred miles weighs more than is feasible. Some hybrid technologies appear to have promise, yet likely are technologies that appear to have promise for certain aircraft architectures, but need higher-performance batteries, which pushes these into the next decade.
Still, Europe continues to place a priority on sustainable aviation. Airbus, engine manufacturers and key suppliers continue their drive toward more sustainable aviation. However, Airbus backed off its 2035 target for a hydrogen-powered airplane. Rolls-Royce, key engine supplier MTU, and components supplier GKN, and others, strive for improving fuel efficiency and reducing emissions. Safran, a partner with GE Aerospace in the 50-50 joint venture CFM International, and an interiors manufacturer, likewise seeks environmental improvements to their products.
Related Article
In Asia, China is making a big bet on eVTOLs (and solar and automobile electric power). Its eVTOL industry is already flying in China. The country is the biggest producer in the world of solar panels and high-performance battery cells. China’s auto industry has a line-up of electric cars from small to luxury based on its battery technology.