Doug Kelly of the consulting/appraisal firm Avitas notes that the Rolls-Royce Trent-powered 777s are, indeed, the least desirable airplanes. GE or PW-powered airplanes commands a $7m premium, he said.
AerCap is selling 777-200ERs with leases attached for more than $50m, Kelly said.
Airbus A330-300 values vary from $41m to $55m today, but will be reduced by $10m next week in the update of the IBA valuation book, said Phil Seymour of IBA.
He cautions that around 40-50 widebody airplanes will be coming off lease in each of the next three years, which will depress values. Higher reconfiguration costs affect the values.
Fred Klein of Aviation Specialists said the Boeing 787-9 starting price for purposes of his valuations is $139m, which he said “splits the difference” between bargain deals and higher pricing. (LNC hears a typical price is $125m.)
The appraisal firm Oriel predicts a 2021 value will be $83.33m, the lowest among the five appraisers participating in the panel. It’s also the most conservative future value for the Airbus A350 at $90.76m.
Seymour said the 787-10 may sell reasonably well but have a small customer base, while the 787-8 sales may be slowing, the customer base will be broader.
Kelly said the A350-1000 has better economics than the 777-300ER, but “it’s late to the game,” so Airbus will have trouble displacing the 777 from its broad customer base. Likewise, the broad customer base for the A330-300 will make it difficult for Boeing to displace the airplane with some customers.
In audience polling, 53% of the 1,900 people attending voted that Airbus has the better single aisle/narrow body product family. Seventy-eight percent believe Boeing has the better widebody product strategy, though the gap is surprisingly big. Seymour is “very surprised” by the result. IBA’s fleet planning consulting says it’s “tough to distinguish” between the offerings.
Over the next three years, 52% of the audience predicted that values of single-aisle aircraft will fall moderately.