Airbus in 2014, the last year the OEM segmented the sector in its 20-year forecast, predicted a demand of 4,363 aircraft.
Boeing, which hasn’t publicly segmented the sector, is believed to have forecast a demand between 4,185 and 6,275 in 2013, based on information revealed during various executive presentations. The mid-point was 5,230.
In announcing the acquisition by Airbus of 50.01% of the CSeries program, Airbus CEO Tom Enders cited a 20-year demand of 6,000 aircraft.
Bombardier consistently claimed it would capture 50% of the demand it saw, or 3,000 to 3,600 aircraft, over 20 years.
But the numbers don’t match up.
Following the Airbus deal, the Teal Group increased its 20-year forecast of CSeries sales by 50%. In the Bombardier 3Q2017 earnings call, CEO Alain Bellemare cited the Teal change as proof the Airbus deal validates the CSeries.
He did not say what Teal Group’s change in unit numbers is, however.
Richard Aboulafia, who is Teal Group’s commercial expert, told LNC the increase went from 589 units over 10 years to 900 units. Teal does not do 20 year forecasts.
This is a far cry from the 3,000 to 3,600 units (50% of the BBD forecast) Bombardier claims it will sell over 20 years.
Bombardier has orders, options and LOIs for some 600 CSeries, but it has been incredibly slow in converting options and LOIs to firm orders.
Bellemare announced an LOI for 31 firm orders and 30 options from an unidentified carrier, believed to be European. Based on the announced list price value, the deal appears to be for the CS100. Bellemare said the deal should advance to a firm agreement by year end.
Bombardier faces strong competition from Embraer in part of this sector. The E190-E2 seats just below 100 seats in standard two-class configuration. The E195-E2 seats 120 in two-class.
In the larger 125-150 sector, Airbus will drop the poor-selling A319neo in favor of the CS300. Boeing’s revised design of the 737-7 seats 12 more passengers than the two-class, 135-seat CS300. But the 7 MAX is also a poor seller.
LNC expects Bombardier and Embraer to roughly split the smaller sector and Bombardier to dominate the larger one. But the jury is still out on what the demand truly is and how much of it Bombardier will capture.