220 Comments on “Pontifications: Outlook 2021 Series begins today”

1. China and Russia civil Aircraft projects depend alot on the US political will on approving export licences for many US content components including engines. If stopped they must speed up development or conversion of military similar components to these jets. Russia might have most of it but military certified only, China want to repeat the “high speed train trick” on taking the techonolgy and production home.

   • @Claes

     Recently Huawei and SMIC were the object of US withdrawal of ‘ key’ export licences in semi conductor technology both directly and via third parties

     This has stimulated China to invest in home production, with the collaboration of ’key’ US companies are setting up subsidiaries, sending over their best talent – Reason : market is too big

     Huawei recently announced a 3nm chipset, US is stuck at 5nm

     Germany refused to follow US ban on Huawai 5G, EU signed CAI with China

     US aviation technology bans will merely speed up local production, guarantee no re cert for Max, and increased sales for Airbus, China and RECP countries

     • Germany should ban chinese 5G,
       and also ban Microsoft Windows, McAfee and other garbage.
       But since Merkel is spying in Germany too and the court already ruled that it’s against the constitution, she just continues with her crimes.

       • Huawei is banned so that CIA, NSA can access the back doors.

         Cover Story: How NSA Spied on Merkel Cell Phone from Berlin Embassy – DER SPIEGEL

         • Its much better to be spied on by your friends!

2. A point I can’t see in Judson’s summary is availability of effective treatment which, as far as I’m aware, is due in March (AstraZeneca. Presumably similar timeframe for Eli Lilly too. Maybe others). Clearly production volume required is vastly lower than for vaccines so if it makes the disease simply unpleasant rather than deadly and/or needing intensive care and capacity meets demand much nearer term it could shorten the time needed to return to “normal”.

   • Other than Sinovac, Chinese authorities have given conditional approval for general public use of a coronavirus vaccine developed by state-owned drugmaker Sinopharm.

     The move came a day after the firm said interim data showed its leading vaccine had a 79% efficacy rate in phase three trials.

3. « Boeing needs not one but two new airplane families to restore fully competitiveness with Airbus. Financial constraints make it challenging to launch one program. Obsession with returning to shareholder value as the No. 1 priority after recovery makes launch two programs unlikely. »

   Given Boeing’s net debt at approx $41B, cash burn at approx $5B per quarter, credit rating near junk status, how may BA raise the cash for a new plane project, which would cost ? a minimum of $20B ? or more like $40B?

   They can sell real estate : but WS would be very unhappy if they were to issue new stock at such a low price and in such a fragile for Boeing market

   The EU-China CAI, the RECP, CAAC re cert hesitancy, along with Biden incoming war on China drum bells might indicate that Airbus has a long lead over BA in China and from Taijin factory sales into RECP

   If BA does not launch a new program, can it survive other than as a shrunken rump ?

   • I think that is something will surface in 2021. The US government ensuring a significant role for US civil aerospace industry for the next 20 years. It’s not even about Boeing, it’s about the strategic presence.

     It won’t be simply putting a bag of money on the table, but multi facetted. Washington will make sure some drastic changes are made, specially with Boeing, to prevent priorities, strategies and tactics from the 2010-2020 era to continue.

     Reliability and continuity will replace short term profitability & stock price as key performance indicators. Also for executives. “Free cash flow” will become words you’ll avoid being associated with, just like “FAA streamlining” and “grandfathered certification”.

     • @Keesje

       Craig Dupler recently had a post here on this subject, pretty much in agreement with you : his proposals were limited to Boeing I think, and he came out at $100B cash required

       I do not know if recently the US has invested this much in one specific industrial project : some say there is no longer a functioning network of political and administrative will/personnel to combine regulation of investment with public/private capital mix, with WS on board

       Boeing itself certainly lacks management capability

       Regarding 5G – at one stage the US realised China was way ahead, the few feeble attempts to interest native companies were rejected on the grounds that the ROI on an industrial project was seen as too low

       Solution – Trade War !

       Now Silicon Valley has told the Feds ‘we can software it’, O-RAN 5G, if you give us the seed money– and WS gets much better returns in China – it is said that to software infrastructure projects such as 5G is pie in the sky smokey

       Boeing fiasco is 5G fiasco, drawn out over decades, plus a lot of deaths, and no software option : DoD may want their rump, who would want the rest ?

       I can not see that aviation, scarred by crashes terminal incompetence and mismanagement, may gather support when 5G can not

       • “Regarding 5G – at one stage the US realised China was way ahead”

         Not so. 5G is a technical standard designed by a committee, so not really possible to be ‘way ahead’ in something that is shared technology.

         The top 2 players in 5G are Ericsson and Samsung followed by Qualcomm and Nokia. Huawei is level pegging with Nokia.
         And as for Huawei bigger R&D spending thats because it has a much wider spread of products
         “”Huawei’s R&D budget covers chipsets, fixed line, mobile, cable TV solutions, AI solutions, data centers, mobile phones, laptops and tablets.”
         The European mobile group Orange rates the other chinese group ZTE more highly…and they have a mix of equipment vendors anyway.

         • According to the Defense Innovation Board of Pentagon:

           “… the US has lost its edge when it comes to telecoms technology for reasons that have little to do with any possible predatory behaviour either from Beijing or Huawei”

           “Part of the problem is lack of investment. China has spent $180bn over the past five years and has 10 times as many base stations as the US. American companies including Verizon and AT&T have too much debt to undertake the huge investment necessary to build out the numbers of base stations required, the report notes, while other western firms, such as Nokia and Ericsson, have also seen their fortunes decline.

           Another obstacle is the fact that in the US, the government and the military appropriate most of the spectrum being used by the rest of the world for commercial purposes, leaving the US market isolated. By themselves, the US markets, both civilian and military, are no longer big enough to dictate to others or to prevent Chinese 5G from continuing to increase market share globally.”

           “Chinese equipment is cheaper (and) in many cases is superior to its western rivals.”

         • @DoU

           Way ahead in build out

         • @Pedro

           Thanks! I did’nt have the energy to walk through 5G 101

           I would only add that 5G is a key infra base for the development of new manufacturing systems involving robotics and AI

           “”These new technological capabilities include artificial intelligence, machine learning, improved data management thanks to cloud computing access, ever more sophisticated robotics, sensors and efficient wireless communications infrastructure such as 5G.

           With these new capabilities, a new age of flexible manufacturing is enabled where the sophistication of the manufacturing facility is the ultimate determinant of product cost and quality, rather than labor costs, which are a much lower part of the operating cost than in older manufacturing facilities.””

           Such are Vital for DoD new arms systems etc, as for many other industries

           China will move further ahead, while the US plays wargames or is it trade wars or….

     • There no longer is a “Rennsteig”* for Boeing or the whole US to dominate.
       They’ve squandered the potential energy into … profits.

     • Boeing should split up the defense and commercial divisions. It is obvious that the current executive team is not up to the task of running the combined operation.

       • I think its clear the current so called executive team is not capable of running a fleet of rubber duckeys in a bathtub

         And who would you give Calhoun to? Anything less than the rubber ducky fleet would be sunk with that kind of management and even the Rubber Duckey would be in peril.

         Maybe Survivor Gilligan’s Island?

     • Yes, it might pop up a big government order for a new troop transport narrowbody aircraft and a P-8 Poseidon replacement that is more or less a 737MAX replacement. Once the USAF realize the B-52 re-engine is uncertifiable like the Nimrod 2000 a new stealth all altitudes bomber contract that can take bigger payloads than the B-21 might surface with new engines and systems that would fit the 737MAX rpl. aircraft. I will be all up to the Biden administration if they decide to boost Boeing similar to what they did to P&W starting with the F119 engine and on to the F135, PW4000 on the KC-46 and now onto the B-21. The UAL might be next for a bigger boost than todays airliners get (thus all of old United Aircraft will be saved with todays and future taxpayers $…)

       • “Once the USAF realize the B-52 re-engine is uncertifiable …”
         You mean a choice from a range of business jet engines that already civilian certified and in service cant be used under USAF rules ( which they decided without public consultation)?
         Its all a bit weird the things you come up with. The P-8 has a couple of extra new planes ordered in the recent Defence authorisation act just passed. Being a commercial airframe means its got 30 years of military life in it , with the electronic systems easily upgraded. The Germans are still using upcycled former Dutch P-3s. The US military budget has competing claims for new projects, even the USN isnt interested in a new plane to help Boeing. Its Lockheed who seems to wrangle orders the services dont seem to want too much.
         The engines for PW on the KC46 are because they ‘won the competition’ against GE

   • Boeing is already past that stage for a new plane.
     Now that they can’t self-certify everything they can’t compete.
     We will watch 777X delays and cancelling of orders.
     How can they fix the 787 fuselage issue if the gap is too big. Not without a new certification.
     Which sane customer would order the 787 now. The fuselage issue might only be the tip of an iceberg. Nine years after EIS they start with QC of an Muilenburg design.
     Is there anything Boeing can do right.
     But Airbus has “some weakness” haha

     • Bernstein – which has been looking at Boeing thru rose colored glasses forever – just downgraded the stock to underperform.
       Can a sell listing be far behind?

       • That’s the equivalent of “sell” – Bloomberg

       • Bloomberg: Boeing Dreamliner’s Defects Spur New Cash Risk as Max Woes Fade

         “The burgeoning financial impact points to new turmoil for Boeing as it tries to rebound from the sharpest downturn in aviation history. While the Dreamliner’s defects don’t pose an immediate threat to safety, Boeing Chief Financial Officer Greg Smith acknowledged last month that inspections were taking longer than expected. That contrasted with the company’s upbeat message in October, when it predicted a strong fourth quarter for 787 deliveries.”

         Boeing’s C-Suites prove its lack of credibility.

         • Indeed: Ye Olde “Extend and Pretend” from Boing’s
           C-suite..

     • @Leon…keep drinking the kool-aid.

       The Boeing 787 sales will start picking up soon. Its not as if any widebody plane is selling off the shelves right now.

       The A330NEO with Air Asia being the largest customer is in trouble.

       EK is the largest B77X customer and the largest B777 customer in the world. Those planes will need to be replaced – maybe not a 1-for-1 however a large enough tranche which means the majority of the orders will stick.

       Besides EY, practically none of the other carriers have said they plan on cancelling.

       A Qatar A350XWB has just shown its delaminating/cracks sooner than expected. Oh no, which sane customer would order the A350 now?

       https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1456315

       Does Boeing have issues? Yes. Do I think most of the Boeing BOD should be removed? Yes.

       Your post reads as if Boeing will be heading towards bankruptcy/oblivion soon – nothing more than fearmongering.

       • @Jacobin777

         787 sales may pick up once inspections are finished, perhaps towards the end of the year, per Scott

         It is likely that Boeing is already losing money on each sale

         Boeing cash burn is $5B per quarter

         Please find link to a new report on the 787 from Dhierin Bechai

         https://seekingalpha.com/article/4396993-boeing-787-problems-loom-large?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha#alt2&mail_subject=ba-boeing-787-dreamliner-a-17-billion-nightmare&utm_campaign=rta-stock-article&utm_content=link-0

         He states it is probable the 787 program has come to the point of ‘reach forward loss’, i.e. the program is losing money

         « Important to note is that Boeing provided a cautionary statement on further reductions on the production program potentially triggering a reach forward loss position for the Boeing 787 program meaning that Boeing will not be able to cover costs on the current accounting quantity and Boeing has actually reduced its forward production rate to five aircraft per month while the program was already expected to have near break-even margins at a rate of six aircraft per month and to that come the extra costs of inspections which Boeing has not quantified but are likely adding up significantly.
         Boeing currently has costs in the amount of $17.3B in excess of what it recognized so while on unit basis production is still profitable, the company could see significant book-keeping impact if the company heads for a reach forward loss position (a reach forward loss position is when the aircraft program costs more than it generates in profits).
         «

         • for the 787 the ‘reach forward loss’ would cover the Everett 787 production shutdown , which has been sped up. The monthly rate has been adjusted to that of Charleston only – and probably at the proper full quality level.

         • @Dukeofurl
           Boeing ramped up the production of 787, in exchange for lower unit cost from suppliers in return to financial engineering a “profitable” 787 program. Now, the demand bubble has burst, does Boeing have another lever to pull?? Time for chickens to come home to roost.

         • At a production rate of five 787 a month is *below* what Boeing disclosed in its Q3 filings of production at six per month to achieve close to breakeven gross margin (after reduction of program accounting quantity by 100 units). Boeing has $17.3b program costs deferred.

           From Bloomberg:
           Boeing intends to repair 787 planes for months at its factory in Everett, Washington, after ending production of the model there in March. The inspections require “opening up the airplane by disassembling the interior, floor, ceiling, etc.,”

           Earlier report from Bloomberg (Dec 23):
           Boeing Co. plans to extend work on 787 Dreamliner jetliners at its main widebody factory north of Seattle for months after it shutters production there next year and shifts final assembly to South Carolina.

           The planemaker intends to used the freed up space at the Everett, Washington plant to inspect and repair any defects in the carbon-composite airframes of Dreamliners, according to 787 production blogger Uresh Sheth, who cited an internal company email. It will involve aircraft that are located there but haven’t yet been delivered and the transition will likely occur in March, he wrote in a post Wednesday.

           From Seeking Alpha
           “For Boeing, it’s also time to break with the past and get focus back on engineering first and finances later. The current expansion of the inspections do show that the issues, partially, could be going beyond manufacturing issues and head into the design space coupled to association production method. “

       • @DoU

         Quality at Charleston is still poor, until further notice

         Monthly rate is lowered to 5

         From the analysis presented by Dhierin Bechai it looks as if BA is already losing money on sales, although the accounting system is not set up as simply as this

         It is evident that the costs of shifting production to Charleston was additional to the program, as all the 787 problems from exploding batteries to the current ‘inspections’ and repairs

         Perhaps Scott can inform us as to what the going price is for a new 787 but I’d have thought it will be discounted just as sharply as a Max

         When your two best sellers sell at a loss, even BA knows it is in trouble

         • You can always move supplier compensation right (later) and customers payments to the left ( earlier ) another step.

     • It might not be that advanced engineering to locally thicken up the carbon fuselage where under min dimensions exist and select the correct shims to get the correct fit. Then you have to put them thru a nose to tail mod line.

       I guess they qualified the process why back to deliver per spec structures and you would assume they have a system of 100% dimensional check-up of produced structures at even intervals like every 50-100 produced, of cause you inspect key dimensions on each produced unit but not 100% of all dimensions on the drawing.

       • I don’t believe under is part of it, the sections are not too thin, they are not withing the require tolerance.

         As I recall we are talking about .005. I have seen how thick the sections are and .005 is like a grain of sand to that.

         The issue is right fit not remotely the fuselage being too thin.

4. “Mitsubishi Heavy Industries to essentially abandon the MRJ/SpaceJet regional jet program. Embraer now is the sole Western supplier of RJs”.

   Japan has never been a Western country, and agree that the A220 isn’t a RJ. The sentence should say that with Bombardier exiting the RJ- marked, Embraer is the sole Western supplier of RJs, or the word Western should be cut out of the sentence.

   • BBD was belly up, but that didn’t make the CSeries a bad design. Airbus took a good look, recognized and provided funding to vitalize the program.

     The big question is is the Spacejet a design justifying a JV/ take-over. Most seem to agree there is a market segment for a light, efficient (compliant) 70-100 seater. Embraers E2’s are a bit bigger. And the A220s a bit bigger than the E2’s.

     Would anyone take over the Spacejet program?

     • Russian and China both have regional jets (not well regarded but they are there). Ergo, the only Western made really supported and world regarded RJ is Embraer.

       China would love to have the not to be Spacejet. MHI is not going to give it to them.

       • I question the feasibility of the usual suspects, russian, indian, chinese companies. Bu what about Collins Aerospace, they already do engines, avionics of the Spacejet. And probably are bigger than Boeing..

         • The only actors that want into regional are the ones in it for prestige and program building.

           As there is no future step up for anyone (delusions by China and Russia aside) then no, Collins is not going to get into a fragmented limited sure money loss market. They did not get where they are at by being stupid (MHI is a product of the distorted Japan system and now they have the new fighter they dropped the olds stuff)

           Add in Turbo Props as competitors and a small market in RJ is smaller still.

           ATR gives Airbus something to play with to appease the EU Hydrogen wise without busing the bank on a single aisle.

   • Hi Meg, In my mind I was lumping China and Russia into one category and the rest of the world into the “Western” world. Call it being US-centric.

     Hamilton

   • post WW II Japan decidedly is part of the western domain ( system ideology, commerce ).

     • Tech wise Japan was on the band wagon early.

       They are not a Western entity in thought process or government society approach.

       Something between Robber Barron’s and Right Wing extremism.

5. Maybe 2021 will bring Chinese interest in Embraer…who knows?
   China has been Brazil’s biggest trade partner since 2009 (currently 19% of exports), and an Embraer acquisition by / merger with COMAC would have certain similarities to Airbus’s acquisition of Bombardier…with the additional advantage that it would give COMAC ready access to top-notch technology, and thus help give them a “leg-up”. Of course, that would then dash hopes of big A220 sales in China.

6. Thanks, Scott
   There is a rumour that DHC new ownership quietly announced to its vendor base the Q400 would stop being produced once the current backlog is burned. You may wish to validate this?

   • @Jacques: Thanks. I’ll check.
     Hamilton

     • I hope its only so they can relaunch the plane as more direct competitor to the ATR 72 with similar power engines.

       • That makes no sense.

         New engines are a seriously costly issue and the one advantage the Dash-8 has its its much better performance .

         You can always throttle the engine back and come very close to ATR spec SFC wise.

         Yes the larger engines cost more.

         But equally, DH will have lower production costs than BBD.

         I find it implausible that Viking went to the trouble to get the Dash 8 to cancel it nor change engines.

         The Dash 8 issue is BBD ignored it and mis sold it on speed when the emphasis should have been on versatility. It can do things the ATR can’t.

         • Results speak for themselves. Throttling back doesnt seem to work for the airlines.
           Let Embraer go for the niche high end market, although they may be The ATR72 has atypical OWE of say 13.5 tonnes. DHC is up there at 18 tonnes, yet the 48-50 seater versions of both are at the same level around 12 tonnes

         • @transworld :”But equally, DH will have lower production costs than BBD.” No not really, they took over the Bombardier employee,union convention and shop and have not renegociated any contract with suppliers (they have zero levrage on this they are too small and new sales are non existant , not to mention the Spicejet cancellation fiasco. So with covid and the state of the industry in general there not in a good position in whatever angle you look at it.

   • @Jacques:

     I checked this out. DHC is building the backlog that exists, this year. It won’t build white tails so it’s asked vendors to stop deliveries that would go to white tails. Its Toronto factory lease extends to 2023, and DHC is prepared to produce if new orders come in. So, yes, production will be suspended, but no, the program isn’t being terminated. (At least not yet.)

     Hamilton

7. From Airliners.net:

   “A QR A350, A7-ALL MSN 036, a 4 year A350, was being prepped for paint removal from the standard QR livery and repaint into the Qatari World Cup 2022 livery at SNN when IAC engineering discovered that the airframe had premature cracks in the composite fuselage. The aircraft will be ferried to TLS for repairs by Airbus. Although it is unknown the extent of the cracks, this event is somewhat significant as it is the first A350 to be entirely stripped for repainting and arises the question if other A350 aircraft will have similar issues when they are stripped for repaint. The aircraft apparently was also involved in a ground collision at MLE in 2018 and repaired however stabilizer damage was also found as a result of the inspection.”

   I wonder if this is a significant issue, will we see more A350 with cracks, and how serious are these cracks ?

   https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1456315

   • Its so fraught with possibles and no answers.

     Eeeire resonance with the A380 wing issues only found because of the Quanta Engine Failure and 737 Pickle forks found only due to other not being looked at and for.

     There should be no cracks.

     As was noted, some checks are not done for 10-12 years bases on the test articles .

     No basis for any assessment other than it does not sound good.

   • If this is true the Neo will be everybodies gem, it’s my gem for a long time but then everybody will love it haha.

     How do they take off the paint without damaging the carbon skin? I know paint is heavy, that’s why they want to take it off, but they might not need to take all off.

     This paint is very elastic. 40 years ago I painted a rubber floor mat of my car to see how this paint is. I bend the mat 180 deg and the paint was fine. If the paint wouldn’t be so elastic, the paint would crack too.

     Tension optics is a very good way to discover the real problem zones. I would have thought they did research when they designed the structure, but maybe they did it on a computer and that’s only as good as the software.
     If the A350 has cracks, the A220 might crack too. Seems not enough experience with carbon, they will learn it now and might need a new cert too, till then it’s Neo time.

     • Lasers
       https://www.flightglobal.com/lht-developing-paint-removal-laser-for-composite-aircraft/103344.article

8. Relevant to the aviation outlook for 2021, and directly pertaining to the paywall article below:

   “UK scientists worry vaccines may not protect against S.African coronavirus variant”

   https://www.reuters.com/article/reutersComService_2_MOLT/idUSKBN2990T3

   • US Scientist fear Space Aliens will back track the Voyager probes and invade earth!

     In other news, Man bites dog in a twist of roles.

     Lets see what data says before we have the sky falling

   • Currently this is speculation and should be treated as such. We should know more soon as all the approved vaccine manufacturers are engaged in testing of the variants.

     Even if resistance occurs, it likely would not be total, just a reduction in efficacy, which is starting out at very high values. And it’s possible to tweak the vaccine as the virus mutates, to maintain efficacy.

     For now, best to continue with what we have while monitoring and testing, making adjustments as needed. The vaccines will reduce the host population and thus the opportunities for the virus to mutate.

     • I belie that is what I said, said, said, said.

     • @Rob

       “tweak the vaccine as the virus mutates, to maintain efficacy”

       To play vaccine catch up – this is like tweaking MCAS after the Max crashes

       Obviously this is the very best way of proceeding

       • Solutions must always be discredited in favor of your theory, we know, Gerrard. You’ve provided numerous examples, all incorrect thus far. This will be another.

         Estimated 2 months to modify the vaccine, if that becomes necessary. As stated, the efficacy of the existing vaccine might be reduced but will not be eliminated. If the virus mutates significantly, then we may be looking at booster shots, but once vaccination reaches sufficient levels, the mutation mechanism is also inhibited.

         So in the end, the basic approach is not altered. Which is the main point here.

         • @Rob

           Except that the vaccine must reach high rates of effectiveness both in symptom relief and prevention of transmission of infection

           If the vaccine makers are always playing catch up and the virus is always one step ahead, and the vaccine diminishes as you say in efficacy with each mutation…

           And then booster shots are also required…

           Then containment is always out of reach, and eradication a holy grail

           You are looking at what you US tried with lockdowns: ineffective lockdowns means lockdown has be constantly re imposed

           Ineffective vaccination means vaccines have constantly to be re administered

           At this rate you will always be losing the war – your metaphor – like the wars you are always endlessly losing in Iraq or Afghanistan, or…

           US calls endless war a solution : Bravo- that is to say

           Truth is only to be found in Death

   • The absence of data to prove things either way just doesn’t exist yet. We will have to wait until such data is available.

     What needs to happen is that all governments world wide need to get vaccinating as quickly as they possibly can.

     People also need to actually pay attention to the guidance to deny the virus hosts. Quite simple really, unfortunately it seems a very large number of people have no common sense, no understanding of scientific method and are not able to apply critical thinking.

     People believe what they want to believe and it can be near impossible to convince them. Question everything, yes absolutely, but listen to and evaluate all the evidence.

     Science is true whether you believe it or not.

     #hands_face_space_vaccinate

     • The new variants are *much* more infectious than the original ones. The old rules no longer cut it. There’s now yet another new “megavariant” in North Belgium: 70% increase in cases in one week. The concept of “spacing” needs urgent re-definition. And something better than unreliable PCR testing is needed to regulate border traffic.
       Meanwhile, the Chinese vaccine is a LAV type, which exposes the immune system to the full genetic package of the virus rather than just its spike protein. A wise approach from day one…even if that narrative is unpalatable to certain people here.

       • “full genetic package of the virus ”
         And then what happens when the ‘full genome’ changes slightly ?
         I dont think China has full approval of its own vaccines yet as they are still in mid or final stage trials

         • One proposed mechanism as to why so many people get only asymptomatic or very mild SARS-CoV-2 infections is that their T-cells from previous common cold coronavirus infections are able to recognize the new SARS-CoV-2 variant to a sufficient extent to combat it. Even though a lot of the genome between the two viruses is different, there’s still enough similarity for the T-cells to recognize. That’s the benefit of training an immune system with a full virus rather than just a protein spike.
           The Chinese Sinovac vaccine has already been administered to 4.5 million people in China.

         • Perhaps, but also very strongly related to coordination and balance of the person’s immune response, between the various mechanisms. This is why the usual progression for serious illness is that a much more serious relapse occurs after a milder initial infection.

         • Bryce:

           I will hunker down before I take a slap dash Chinese or Russian vaccine.

           Equally I will take an experts view on approaches over a layman’s.

           So China with its forced vaccination program has 4.5 million (I believe the US is at that same level with a voluntary one)

           Reality is that the Western versions are safer as they have been tested and the Chinese approach while it may work has backfired in the past.

           Pfizer and Moderna have outstanding safety and proven effective track record and PUBLIC test results reviewed by independent bodies. China nor Russia has any of that.

           Yes we have roll out issues due to incompetent government. but we also are not sitting in prison cells in Western China or the Gulags in Western Russia.

         • @ TW
           By all means continue to look down on China if you think that will achieve something; in the meantime, China will just laugh back.
           LAV vaccines are also under development in the west…much later than the Chinese. For example, from this firm in SF:

           https://www.biospace.com/article/another-covid-19-vaccine-joins-the-race-this-time-it-s-a-live-weakened-virus/

         • @TW

           Take a look at NYE in Wuhan and Time Square NYC

           https://mobile.twitter.com/blayone/status/1344872594235817986

         • Ironic that the same group here that has raised objections to restrictions, lockdowns, masks, vaccines, and mocked the science, now points to China. Where all these tools were used heavily and effectively.

           China is by no means alone in having done this. New Zealand is an even better example, also did not need excessive or extensive government powers to do so. Yet also mocked here.

           Bottom line is that science works, precautions work, restrictions work, vaccines work. Where these things are accepted, there is success. Where they are resisted or ignored, there is failure.

           Notably China is refusing access to world scientists working to determine the exact origin of COVID. They claim they are still studying it but have also refused to release their data. So we may never get to the bottom of that issue.

           The world has shown patience thus far, but as the toll of COVID grows, there will be increasing pressure for answers. The best thing China could do is come clean, whatever the source was. That would be the open and honest thing to do.

         • @ Gerrard
           It seems that certain lost souls think that criticism is the same thing as “raising objections to restrictions, lockdowns, masks, vaccines, and mocking the science”. Are you aware of any such activity here? I’m not. I’m certainly aware of big-time denialism and creation of alternate realities, but I haven’t seen anyone “mocking the science”, have you? I have seen abandonment of basic engineering principles by Boeing cronies, but haven’t seen any “mocking the science”. More scapegoating, probably.

           On another note, China is increasingly on high alert:
           https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-cases/china-steps-up-covid-19-curbs-near-beijing-as-infections-rise-idUSKBN29B01O

         • @Rob

           “The world has shown patience thus far, but as the toll of COVID grows, there will be increasing pressure for answers.”

           You have been trying to sell War on China for some time, you are newly emboldened by the Biden incoming

           Soon you will be in full cry

           ‘War is Truth’

         • @ Gerrard
           I think we have a new version of “Truth is Truth”. It’s somewhat longer, but just as vacuous:
           “Science works, precautions work, restrictions work, vaccines work. Where these things are accepted, there is success. Where they are resisted or ignored, there is failure.”

           Curious, I was under the impression that exemplary countries like Japan, South Korea, Thailand and Germany were diligently adhering to this ethos…and yet they’re now in the soup! How do you think that happened? Might it be an evil fairy? Or the fact that the virus is far more infectious and versatile than in the parallel reality created by denialists?

           I wonder if a similar credo could be created for Boeing?
           “Engineering works, quality control works, tolerances work, proper management works. Where these things are accepted, there is success. Where they are resisted or ignored, there is failure.”

           What do you think?

         • In one post, Bryce denies that he attacked those methods, even though those attacks are present in hundreds of his posts. In the next post, he ridicules countries that have used those methods, in yet a further attack.

           I could not provide a clearer example of the inconsistencies, contradictions and falsehoods in his arguments. So I thank him for that.

           War on China? Really? Delusional, but again instructive in the method of assigning the theorist’s own statement to the opposition. Not one person here, other than Gerrard, has ever raised the issue of war with China, yet he accuses others of his own statements.

           Together with Bryce’s contradiction above, well-known methods in the conspiracy theorists playbook. So no longer really surprising.

         • @Bryce

           Once upon a time there was a little boy who believed in fairy tales, and who learned by rote-

           « Bottom line is that science works, precautions work, restrictions work, vaccines work. Where these things are accepted, there is success. Where they are resisted or ignored, there is failure. »

           Back in the earlier days when US virus failure was not quite so stark there were a few/many (US) people who criticised China hard lockdown as the vile product of a totalitarian society, which could never be contemplated much less applied in homebrave landfree democracy America, who instead of which would walk it’s own best manners round the block to stymie the virus

           Now this above is victim blaming nada mas, as per Max

           Damn the natives !

           To point this out is to be accused of all evil : despite the science they claim to follow they are still above all the children of God, incapable of anything but Prayer

           All this shouting stupid is to avoid the genuine question of what may be done better to survive this virus : this is not easy, I have outlined some ideas in posts to JakDak

           I think US response will only find expression in war, they are incapable of anything else : but I do not think that any US ideas, any measures taken with regard to this pandemic have any relevance, except as an object lesson in what not to do and how

           I’d be much more interested to learn what longish term plans China (and SK and Jpn etc) has to gradually balance out stabilise infection rates and spread with vaccinations and t&t

           The ‘NZ’ paradox can be solved how, do you think ?

           Rather let’s call it the China Paradox – what will they do ?

         • It seems that, when their alternative realities crumble around them, denialists start to frantically scapegoat. Concurrently, they show very sub-standard comprehensive reading skills (again).

           On another note:
           At the risk of being labeled “a linker”, here’s a nice summary article on the new South African variant (from CNBC today):
           https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/06/south-africa-covid-strain-a-guide-to-what-you-need-to-know.html

           Follow the science!

         • Following the science, here is a collection of expert views:

           https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-the-south-african-variant/

           An relevant quote:

           “For the general public, I would say think about our human nature. Many of us like a good scare and horror stories are part and parcel of human culture, which means such things get a lot of coverage.”

           “However a drumbeat of nightmare scenarios about this new variant does nothing but create anxiety because too little is known and there is nothing we can do about it at the moment. Prolonged anxiety is far from enjoyable and leads to mental illness. I would say there are many much more positive things we can do.”

           The mental illness reference is particularly applicable here.

         • @Bryce

           !Truth is Link

           Thanks for SA link, very informative, I’m glad to hear that Africa is doing it’s bit to keep the vaccine I mean the virus mutating

           It also bears this good news-

           « Experts are keen to point out that there’s still a lot we don’t know about the new strains «

           That the article underlines that the experts are keen to tell us that they do not know much and that this can be taken as re assuring, well it’s reassuring to know that other people know this, well all except one

           I really appreciate V.O.C. as a kind of appellation contrôlée and in fact I’d propose this as a new generic name for many people as well as things

           Escape mutants are on their way, it seems : this is indeed the only way out, as usual the bug leads the way

           This is the answer I was looking for to your question as per the other thread

           Work is Freedom !

         • Some serious going off the wagon involved.

           China succeed on dictatorial methods which is standard MO. Basically its shut up or you will be in prison. See Uyghurs, people fleeing Hong Kong locked up, Hong Kong Residents locked up etc)

           NZ succeed because they are easily isolated and the government took action and the citizens complied.

           California is in deep trouble because the government took action but there is no compliance as they ignored the government (see China for a model)

           Alaska was spiraling out of control and has been reined back because local government took action and we got complains (down 75% though still not good) State Government is lame but succeeded on local and mostly compliance.

           More than one way to skin the Covd Cat and clearly compliance is a key, given freely and willingly or forced.

         • Bryce:

           “By all means continue to look down on China ”

           I am old enough to remember Japan dominating the world, that fell into a moldy mess and still is.

           I do not dismiss China, I don’t accept they are 15 feet tall either.

           Where they can dictate and no competition, they are quite capable.

           They have loaded the dice, stolen most if not all the tech they have.

           Their Moon Lander is a direct knock off of the US lander (we figured out what worked they did not)

           When you put the weight of a billion plus people on the the competitive scales you can look really good.

           Name me something they actually invented ?

           And do you want to live there?

       • Bryce, there is no argument over the effectiveness of non-mRNA vaccines. Only that the mRNA vaccines are less effective due to not using the actual virus. That’s a speculative conclusion that has thus far proven unfounded.

         The SinoVac vaccine has been shown to produce lower levels of immunity than result from COVID itself, or from the mRNA vaccines. But it can still be very effective.

         The truth is that all methods have advantages and disadvantages, just like anything else. We need to use them all. There would be no point in waiting for a non-mRNA vaccine when we have mRNA available now. In time we will learn all the nuances of efficacies and effectiveness.

         As far as transmissivity, the Rt values measured in the UK have been from 0.4 to 0.7 higher than previous strains. While that’s a significant increase, it’s still well below the initial values of 3.0 to 4.0 back in March. Which means that precautions can still play a role in limiting Rt, as they did then.

         So we always come back to the same basic solutions. Continue to observe precautions and vaccinate as quickly as possible. That limits the host population, which in turn limits mutation opportunities.

         • Good summary Rob. However The Imperial College study of the ‘novel variant’ doesnt measure anything in the normal sense.

           “As far as transmissivity, the Rt values measured in the UK ..”
           They are using computer models and simulations and using novel statistical techniques to find the Rt values are between 0.4 to 0.7 higher. Unfortunately all the medai report only the higher number.

         • Yes, Rob, we know:
           – When the narrative suits you, you refer to “truth” and “facts”.
           – When the narrative doesn’t suit you, you refer to “speculation” and “falsehoods”.
           – You have selective cognition when it comes to data, particularly when contained in links. Many of the terms used in epidemiology seem to confuse you.
           – You keep repeating the same old lines.

           We know.

         • Duke, you are correct, all the Rt values are based on statistical models, not direct measurement.

           In the US, the Rt values are on the rise again, after significant progress made in December. Likely because these new strains are circulating here as well.

       • “If you wanted to make a vaccine-resistant strain, what you would do is to build a cohort of partially immunized individuals in the teeth of a highly prevalent viral infection”

         https://mobile.twitter.com/justinjm1/status/1346140224024358918

         • @ Pedro
           That’s right — cowboy antics pur sang.
           Pfizer / BioNTech yesterday distanced themselves from plans to use any dose separation other than the 21-day period used in their phase 3 trials. But the Brits are sticking to 12 weeks, and the Danes are proposing 6 weeks.

     • @JakDak

       “What needs to happen is that all governments world wide need to get vaccinating as quickly as they possibly can.”

       A more realistic timescale for worldwide vaccination is easily found on the net

       Vaccine Take up as per polled intentions in the US, and some other countries, looks to be inadequate for purpose

       WHO and others say significant vaccination Third World not likely until 2023/2024 earliest

       Your advice as to measures meanwhile to adopt ‘the guidance’ is superfluous in most of the Third World, as well as in those poor areas of the first

       Superfluous being a polite word for non operable nonsense

       Vaccination spurs the vaccine to mutate, It is only a matter of time until virus achieves vaccine escape or else, perhaps, develops strains which are more lethal

       A virus can make mistakes too, although surprisingly fewer than vaccine makers or, for example, US administration of vaccines

       « The absence of data to prove things either way just doesn’t exist yet » – You use the word Proof, what has been proved about this virus ?

       Except this –By the time your proof is in it is out of date, the virus has already moved on mutated or….

       • Gerrard,

         Unfortunately until you vaccinate a population, there’s just no other way to control the virus other than to deny it hosts.

         I completely understand that hands, face, space is not possible in many situations, but that doesn’t mean you should abandon it in areas/places where it is possible.

         In the UK there are many households where multiple generations of a family are living together in cramped accommodation and have no way for a member to self isolate when they catch COVID. This is a massive problem as it’s likely that members of such a family are likely to be in a lower paid job that is exposed to very high contact with the general population.

         Assume that an individual who has COVID (perhaps asymptomatically) and is able to to socially distance and use a mask but doesn’t and then interacts with a member of a family as described above. Assume that the privileged individual passes COVID on to the family member. Assume that the family member passes COVID on to his or her extended family… the older generation ends up in ICU, or worse !

         Back in March here in the UK, Graham Medley said
         “So most people have a fear of acquiring the virus, I think a good way of doing it is to imagine that you do have the virus, and change your behaviour so that you’re not transmitting it.”

         “Don’t think about changing your behaviour so that you won’t get it, think about changing your behaviour so you don’t give it to somebody else.”

         As it appears that 1 in 3 cases where someone here is infected with the virus is asymptomatic, this is very good advice.

         Wearing masks is about preventing an individual GIVING the virus to someone else, not about protecting the wearer from acquiring the virus, a subtle but very important distinction when people argue that masks are not effective at preventing someone from getting the virus.

         As far as mutation goes, we have been relatively fortunate, in the past year, the virus has been largely stable, we only have the ‘UK’, and ‘SA’ variants of concern with potentially some as yet undiscovered.

         It appears that these variants may well have mutated in immunocompromised individuals over a number of months.

         We have a window to use vaccines before the virus mutates to a point where the vaccines are less effective, but it’s going to have to be a world wide response, the first world can’t do it alone, the second, and third world need to be vaccinated too.

         The Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccinations begun here in the UK yesterday, logistics for this vaccine are a lot easier than the Pfizer vaccine, hopefully vaccination will now accelerate (we have only vaccinated around 1 million people so far, more than the rest of the EU combined, but nothing like that which is required).

         The current UK plan is to vaccinate around 13.4 million people by mid February while the population is under the latest lockdown conditions. So that’s 1.9 million a week. The groups of people targeted have accounted for 88% of deaths so far, that would be a hugely positive step.

         For reference, that’s:
         1) Residents of a care home for older adults
         Their carers

         2) Everyone aged 80 or over
         Frontline health or social care workers

         3) Everyone aged 75 and over

         4) Everyone aged 70 and over
         Clinically extremely vulnerable

         The next 11.5 million (down to everyone over 55) would take the targeted groups up to 98% of deaths accounted for. So if vaccination rate is achieved, and maintained, deaths due to COVID could be down to around 2% of current by the end of March.

         Unfortunately the Govt. is only releasing vaccination statistics weekly, next update due tomorrow so we’ll see where we are then.

         • “Unfortunately until you vaccinate a population, there’s just no other way to control the virus other than to deny it hosts.”

           (1) You’re forgetting people who get infected and recover — they too have an immune response. And despite the fantasies adhered to by some people, there’s nothing to suggest that that response is less robust than what would be bestowed by a vaccine — in fact, there is much evidence to suggest that infection-triggered immunity may be more robust than the response incurred by a vaccine that is only based on a protein spike (as with all vaccines currently in use, except the Chinese Sinovac one).

           (2) Can you define “control” ? A vaccine that doesn’t prevent transmission (or only does so to a small degree) doesn’t “control” the virus — it only “controls” the extent to which medical facilities are overloaded or not. This is where Alan Joyce got confused when he talked about mandatory vaccinations on Qantas flights: the poor, confused man thought that that would be a mechanism to stop virus spread.

         • Bryce,

           I’m not forgetting those who have had the virus and recovered at all. The scientific consensus is that people that have had the virus and recovered still need to be vaccinated (of course there will also be people who have had the virus completely asymptomatically and have recovered with no knowledge that they’d been infected).

           As far as immune response goes we don’t have much hard evidence yet, anecdotal evidence suggests that having previously had COVID and recovered may prevent an individual from contracting it again for 6 to 8 months although one case appears to show that an individual was re-infected just six months after having contracted the virus for the first time (different virus sequence hence 2nd real infection).

           You’re correct control should probably be termed “mitigated” to be more exact. We are not going to eradicate COVID, but we need to exert some form of ‘control’ over it to limit the damage it does.

           There are a huge amount of unknowns, we don’t know exactly how long a vaccine or recovery from COVID will protect against another infection, we don’t know yet if the current vaccines will protect against the ‘UK’ and ‘SA’ variants and how effective they are if this is the case.

           We don’t know if concentrating on a first dose of the vaccines to get a larger number protected and then administering the second dose is better than going for the perfect solution of second vaccine in 21 days (it does seem that one dose of COVID vaccine is more effective than current flu vaccine), in the UK, we should have some idea by looking at the numbers in a month or so.

           We need to reduce deaths from COVID, we need to prevent severe but survivable COVID (we don’t know long term effects), and we need to be able to get world economies back on their feet, so yes in a way, it’s all mitigation, not cure, it’s protecting the health service so that it can deal with other causes of death and serious disease.

           Distancing, masks, hygiene, vaccination are about the only tools we have currently (have I missed anything apart from Dex for treatment?).

           We are slightly better at preventing people from dying from COVID than nine months ago, but that does generally mean patients recovering from COVID then spend more time in hospitals which again raises the pressure on medical resources.

           BTW for the avoidance of doubt, the UK won’t ‘mix and match’ vaccines, if a person has been given a first dose of Pfizer vaccine, their second dose will also be Pfizer, similarly with all the other vaccines (there has been misinformation spread suggesting otherwise).

           Also it appears anyone who has had their first shot and been given an appointment for their second will have that second shot administered. The first person to be immunised in the UK has already had her second shot. Potentially a useful control group to be able to determine the efficacy of the ‘one shot’ (delayed second shot) future immunisations.

         • @ JakDak
           “…anecdotal evidence suggests that having previously had COVID and recovered may prevent an individual from contracting it again.”

           I don’t think there are (m)any virologists who seriously believe that anybody with an immune response to SARS-CoV-2 — whether infection-induced or vaccine-induced — is going to be protected from “contracting” the virus again. In both cases, sterilizing IgG antibodies (to prevent infection) are either insufficient ab initio or seem to fade quickly to insufficient titres, though T-cell responses (to mitigate symptoms) seem to last (considerably) longer. The data on re-infections, and the clinical data on vaccines (from human trials and macaques), point clearly and firmly in this direction…although that narrative doesn’t suit certain peoples’ fantasies.

           Using a vaccine to mitigate the effects of infection is great, but people — particularly administrators, and airline industry executives — need to realize that there is probably going to be minimal to zero effect on transmission. At present, that penny just doesn’t seem to have dropped sufficiently. Until such time as it does drop, the process of societal re-normalization is going to be impeded by stubborn and counterproductive misconceptions.

         • @JakDak

           Thanks for info on UK : certainly AZ looks very much to be preferred to the Pfizer moon shot

           There are ways of surviving the virus other than by ‘controlling’ it, whatever that means precisely, and certainly other than by vaccination, or at least than by-

           Than by rushed up vaccines, ill tested and unproven, and which large enough % in the rich West countries say they will not take, thus giving a lower threshold of pop jab than is required adequately to ‘contain’ it

           Let alone the apparent lack of effective prevention of transmission that current vaccines possess, although once again as usual ‘we’ do not know very much about that

           Has anyone polled the Third World as to vaccine uptake intentions – I do not think

           Yet countries even continents have ‘survived’ the virus so far, without the West style measures, and without any vaccine

           One might start looking here for clues as to how to survive : or at least how better to survive than in death ridden lockdown scarred and economy devastated countries, US par example

           To place your virus abolition ambitions in vaccines about which, if you pardon me, you as everyone knows yet very little, even as they know less about the virus, would appear to be unreasonable

           To vaccine michigan to the required % looks tough – to vaccine the world is going to be several magnitudes of very much more tough

           Michigan (generic for US state) has suffered through almost a year cruelly incompetent language and action from their ruling classes and authorities, and are, to put it mildly, desperate enough to clutch at any straw and pay through the nose for the privilege : besides they love to take drugs

           Control is the wrong paradigm to adopt, is the wrong direction to look in, is to demand that Pharma feed you products on faith

           It does appear that the virus learns very much more quickly than humans do, adjusts and and adapts to every local situation and class/type of human, and rapidly to ‘challenges’ provided by vaccines ; has the recourse to go sit it out in certain species of animals, ‘reservoirs’, yet to return to human subsequently, in a different format

           What humans do not want is to control this outbreak so well the virus goes and sits in cattle, or mice, or….well you can see that ‘winning the war’ as they say may just be the beginning of the end

           Treat the cause not the symptoms

         • @Bryce

           Thanks for lucid posts

           And thanks for keeping alive the memory of JJ at QF, he is the welcome occasion for a meaty Aussie grin

           People like him, there’s one here on this site, are useful because they always give the exactly wrong view point and misinterpret the situation in so precisely the wrong way so that not only do you know how Boeing Pharma etc fail to think, you learn how not to think does not work

           Something surprisingly hard to learn!

           !Freedom is War

         • Bryce,

           Perhaps I’m being simplistic, when I say contracting the virus, preventing an individual from becoming ill with the virus is probably closer to the reality.

           Yes you are correct, it seems 60% of US medical staff are indicating that they don’t want to take the vaccine just yet, they’d prefer more people be immunised before they are comfortable having it themselves.

           Consider this though;
           If you’re in a risk group say male, 60 years old, perhaps very overweight or clinically obese, perhaps with Diabetes and / or Asthma, now your Govt. has provided vaccine for all who will take it, we’re in the final quarter of 2021 and the Govt. says no more support, it’s all back to business as usual (pre March 2020).
           Would you consider being vaccinated ?

           I certainly would, as you say, we don’t know what the effect on transmission will be, but here in the UK at least there are no plans to immunise anyone below the age of 16 (unless there is a medical reason to). In effect there will be a large number of people who will not be given, or will take the vaccine when offered, and the virus will continue to circulate (and mutate), could / would you shelter ad infinitum, or would you take the best protection you can ?

           I suspect this is what will drive an uptake of the vaccines, it may be gradual, but I do expect it to have some effect.

           The other thing is that if people want to travel, the same thing applies, I don’t think ‘vaccine passports’ will be a ‘thing’, it will be down to your own personal risk assessment.

           Would you travel unvaccinated to New Zealand or Australia (accepting the risk en-route) or perhaps to Brazil, South Africa or India ?

           I agree airlines will need to change, there may be greater demand to countries that have the virus under ‘control’, mostly vaccinated populations and less to countries less able to ‘control’ the virus, but at some point it’s going to be down to individual risk.

         • Gerrard, if we go back to 1665 and bubonic plague in London, there were no vaccines, a proportion of the population survived as they were ‘naturally’ resistant to the plague, but it’s not 1665 now, we do have vaccines, and we can stop people from dying.

           Vaccines have eradicated Smallpox (last wild case 1977), so wouldn’t we at least try to mitigate the effects of Sars-Cov2 using vaccines ?

           We actually know a lot about the vaccines that have been approved and those doing final trials about to be approved. One big difference is the speed they were developed. 1) A lot of competition, all with the same goal, first to market, funding guaranteed. 2) Standard known vaccine concepts and newer but not novel concepts. 3) vaccine development stages done in parallel or at least evaluated as soon as data was available rather than waiting until the end of all trials.

           This is quite different to the usual one company cornering the market without competition taking time to maximise the amount of funding (usually in stages).

           The process was streamlined, not rushed.

           I’m interested in “countries even continents have ‘survived’ the virus so far” which are these ?

           You could say New Zealand has done very well, but they are an island and pretty much shut their borders, that’s fine until you open your borders again as everything goes back to normal and air travel resumes, what then ?

           UAE has done well, fly in, and you’re tested and have to isolate at a hotel at your expense where you’re tested again multiple times (and tagged with an Apple watch so that you don’t break quarantine) until you’ve been given the all clear to continue as normal. Again what happens when this all goes back to normal ?

           I do agree we need to look at why we have to deal with COVID in the first place, I think we were in a way lucky with Sars-Cov2, it could have been far more transmissible, could have had a far longer incubation period and could have been far more deadly. It’s a massive warning shot across our collective bows.

           We do need to put large amounts of time and money into zoonotic diseases. Keeping pigs and ducks apart, stopping people from eating ‘bushmeat’ etc. also not forgetting that Tundra melting could release pathogens that we’ve no defence against.

         • @JakDak

           I am not saying that current covid vaccines serve no purpose, I am saying that they do not serve the purpose you posit of ‘control’

           You do not define ‘control’, but as Bryce has pointed out vaccines as currently may palliate disease and save lives, but there is so far no evidence they will prevent transmission to the degree required

           This, coupled with evidence of lowish vaccine take up coupled with vaccine mutation and perhaps escape would appear to nix any effective degrees of control

           It may be possible to imagine that, after a great deal more research and testing that a very much more effective vaccine may be developed

           Along with Bryce I have pointed out that the suppression of the virus achieved in countries like Australia and NZ is only temporary, early on I read a report from a WHO official saying that this pandemic was world wide and that although isolation measures were possible to maintain for a small amount of time, in fact they wound up causing more harm than good, only buying very expensive time

           To isolate from this virus is to adopt measures that isolate from many other, especially coronas, and to reduce and weaken the natural immune response

           So that when the virus re appears with any degree of re opening, which is inevitable, the humans concerned are that much more fragile, all the more so as they have been convinced they have won and the dirty rest of the world good for nothing foreigners have poisoned them (or some bla bla similar)

           The continent that has very largely escaped ill effects, and with very little application of the western style measures, is Africa

           At the outset WHO UN etc all predicted that the poverty no hospitals etc would result in a massive death toll, 2.5M minimum, the current toll is…. well I have given up checking, but many orders of magnitude lower, Nigeria pop 200M deaths….1,000 odd?

           The only sub saharan country that has felt the bite is South Africa, but in many parts that has a typical westie lifestyle and mind set

           The measures adopted in Africa were akin to the old traditional quarantine measures, immeasurably easier to exercise in peoples already used to various plagues and living lower density lives, and have stronger immune systems and – get this for a strange idea – better health than let’s say most inhabitants of any where in the US : much less obese, much much less constant drug intake, many less less cardiac etc etc, also younger pops

           As per Mumbai slum success

           Even so in many countries such measures were only adopted in cities, and only largely in the middle classes etc and so on, the very large majorities of each population were barely touched

           To look at the situation from another perspective is to observe how poor health and lack of any concept and practice of effective cooperation and administration renders the human feeble in the face of nature, as in all else

           The poor can not afford to die, so take the precautions required, no need for a virus to teach them

           Zoonotic is the result of human expansion into areas previously little touched by human – this provokes crossover – in Africa as in China as in ..this coupled with impoverished health provided by ind ag pattern of food consumption and drug intake in westies gives rise to the death tolls

           Modification of ind ag in the ‘border’ regions is to be coupled with better practice in the rest of the world

           Eating pangolins in africa if the human co habits is neither sickly nor fatal, it will result in both when the many humans living separated out lives do so

           All ind ag animals were once bush meat – and the eating of them was always accompanied by viral transfers, which grew in virulence once consumption and herding reached an industrial like scale

         • Just to clarify, the case being made for reduction in transmissivity is not yet clear, but we do have some evidence that it will be on the order of 50% to 60%. As indicated by the trials that made some attempt to measure it. And as expressed in the predictions of some experts (Sahin, Fauci). And as evidenced by experience with other vaccines.

           Also for the case of reinfection, again we cannot say with certainty when immunity declines, but as of yet, there is no evidence of significant reinfection. Those cases are in the noise margin of worldwide cases. And again we know from other vaccines that immunity corresponds to high efficacy.

           These things are important because the main arguments for lack of immunity, or for continuing transmissivity, is that we can’t prove the contrary case conclusively. However the empirical evidence that exists points to both benefits existing.

         • Gerrard,

           I agree Africa is an interesting case, certainly a younger population will help with the numbers if a disease is more dangerous to an older population. As you say obesity in Africa is also far less of an issue than it is in many ‘western’ countries.

           I suspect there is something to the possibility that the average African has a stronger immune system than in more developed countries. I have long thought that we anti-bac spray / clean / disinfect far too much, our immune systems never get the chance to ‘exercise’ (I am simplifying of course). We have certainly overused antibiotics in the first world (still have arguments with some people that antibiotics will not help them with their cold or flu).

           There have been thoughts that prior exposure to coronaviruses (≈ 15% of common colds) may ‘protect’ a person from severe COVID, this could make sense in Africa and it may also be a part of the reason that children seem to be less affected by Sars-Cov-2. Ask any primary school teacher, the children always have colds.

           Of interest to anyone looking for a simple explanation of the UK (Denmark as well it seems) vaccinating as many people as possible with first dose and second dose some time after the ideal 21 days.

           https://www.covid-arg.com/post/a-bird-in-the-hand-or-two-in-the-bush

           P.S. UK has now vaccinated 1.3 million people

           “Asked whether the longer gap could lead to an increase risk of the virus mutating into a version that could escape the vaccine, he said it was a worry, but a small one.” Professor Chris Whitty – BBC

           “Chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance said vaccines would probably need to be changed further down the line to continue to be a good match for the virus – but that this was relatively quick to do.

           One of the exciting things about the science of the RNA vaccines is that they are incredibly fast to make in response to new mutations, he said.” – BBC

         • @JakDak

           Africa is more than an interesting case : it is a case for arguing that

           -This virus is largely self inflicted, a killing ground for the ordinary crossover of zoonontic viruses and how to contain them, and alternatively, how not to contain them

           -The much greater impact of this virus on the countries of the West is the result, in the very most part, of their poor state of health, poor state of healthcare, and very poor systems of administration

           In other words the westies have not only brought this virus on themselves, their vulnerability is the result of the same conditions and the same weakness : over the last 20 25 years there have been many sufficient warning outbreaks

           To a certain extent these societies may palliate the effects of the disease, they will neither be able to contain it, nor eradicate it

           All the ‘we hope that’ as represented here and everywhere in the west, that transmission will be reduced, that the near continuous half hearted lockdowns will work ‘this time’ and so on are, strictly speaking, the half witted result of looking the wrong way, applying half wit palliatives instead of facing the reality of the virus and treating the cause not the symptoms

           Nor even to operate a genuine quarantine such as western societies were capable, recently, as per quote from Michel Foucault-
           « First, a strict spatial partitioning: the closing of the town and its outlying districts, a prohibition to leave the town on pain of death, the killing of all stray animals; the division of the town into distinct quarters, each governed by an intendant. Each street is placed under the authority of a syndic, who keeps it under surveillance; if he leaves the street, he will be condemned to death. On the appointed day, everyone is ordered to stay indoors: it is forbidden to leave on pain of death. The syndic himself comes to lock the door of each house from the outside; he takes the key with him and hands it over to the intendant of the quarter; the intendant keeps it until the end of the quarantine. Each family will have made its own provisions; but, for bread and wine, small wooden canals are set up between the street and the interior of the houses, thus allowing each person to receive his ration without communicating with the suppliers and other residents; meat, fish and herbs will be hoisted up into the houses with pulleys and baskets. »

           Instead- The lashings of sentimentality, the hero worship for ‘battling’ health workers (cruelly sacrificed as ever the troops were) and the undue unthinking respect cum obeissance for confused & vacillating authorities and experts of every colour and ilk, ‘we’ can get it all wrong, but at least we can cry while doing so

           Refusal to take responsibility will result in emotional and tear driven declarations to attempt to mask extensions to permanent maintenance of various mandatory systems of social and physical control, even if all these administered with the same half fool inefficiency

           Nor will the westies learn to modify of the conditions of production of this virus, neither will they reform their conditions of life and health, nor even be able to question the failings of their systems of governance : this will result in many more virus crossovers in the coming few years, which will inflict more or less damage as the particular virus so wishes

           One sure sign of the failure to understand the situation is westie response of denying agency to the virus, by extension to natural systems, within the contradiction of reserving the scope of human agency to, merely, a reaction and a response to the actions and agency of nature

           Dr Valance exults – we can quickly react to the virus mutation – which is only to say the virus is more quickly reacting than the human, by golly !

           The only ‘solution’ is via an Achilles and the tortoise paradox

         • @ JakDak
           “Asked whether the longer gap could lead to an increase risk of the virus mutating into a version that could escape the vaccine, he said it was a worry, but a small one.” Professor Chris Whitty – BBC

           Seeing as Prof. Whitty won’t be held responsible if he’s wrong, and also won’t have to clear up the ensuing mess, it’s easy for him to sit in his chair and make sweeping statements.
           Tell him he’ll be dragged to Tyburn if he’s wrong, and then re-ask the question: I bet you’ll get a far more qualified answer.

           At the moment, he’s steering the UK on a path that diverges wildly from what the manufacturers and other regulators are advising. Pure panic.

         • Bryce,

           Prof Whitty has great integrity, there’s no danger of him being threatened with being dragged to Marble Arch if he’s wrong and I don’t think he’d change his mind if we were to go back in time 220 – 600 years to drag him to Tyburn.

           He’s been spotted many times recently doing normal shifts on COVID wards (a good leader never expects anyone to do what they wouldn’t do themselves).

         • Virus is not adjusting, its mutating.

           Most mutations are dead end, the ones that are worse (for us) spread.

           That is not the same ad adapting. this is not a case of drug resistance.

           Polio did not adapt to the vaccines and is almost eradicated.

         • For anyone interested in COVID treatment options:

           First Dex (dexamethasone) now …

           Tocilizumab and sarilumab have been found to cut deaths by a quarter in patients who are sickest with Covid.

           https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55574662

           Some other good news, seven new mass Covid vaccination hubs across England have been announced by the government.

           The Oxford-Astra Zeneca vaccine is now rolling out across GP surgeries (doctor’s offices) in the UK. We should see the UK vaccination effort start to scale up significantly.

         • JakDak, thanks for the update and the positive messaging. It takes time to ramp up large-scale vaccination programs, in the UK. US, and elsewhere, but they will be successful as they grow. As long as they survive the initial attacks and preemptory accusations of failure.

         • Rob,

           As you say it takes time to ramp up, but the UK is involving the Army “The Army will use ‘battle preparation techniques’ to help achieve that goal”, so I have reason to think things will improve rapidly (clear chain of command is key).

           The UK had very limited PCR capability in March, they set a target of 100,000 a day, and were derided, and laughed at. They were told to set a more achievable target, but they persisted.

           It took them nearly a week longer than they had hoped, but they met their target, and for a while now they’ve had the capacity to do 500,000 PCR tests a day. They have been testing near to that capacity also, and this doesn’t count the ‘lateral-flow’ self test kits that they are also distributing.

           There is light at the end of the tunnel, and for now it seems it’s not the light of a train coming towards us.

         • JakDak, thanks for the update as regards the UK…although the use of those anti-rheumatism drugs to treat patients with overactive immune responses has been known since July (second link below).

           On the subject of the USA, even the adored Dr. Fauci is severely critical of the vaccine rollout:

           https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/01/06/health/us-coronavirus-wednesday/index.html

           https://www.google.com/amp/s/labblog.uofmhealth.org/body-work/drug-calms-cytokine-storm-associated-45-lower-risk-of-dying-among-covid-19-patients-on%3famp

9. That’s been the problem with the aviation industry since the start of this pandemic. It has consistently adhered to a credo of: “Whatever happens, don’t attempt to preempt anything, or to formulate a contingency or workaround; instead, just wait and see what happens”.
   I know where I’m putting my bets.

   • Bryce:

     Thar is huge a difference between a contingency and wasted speculation.

     1. Vaccines are on the way: Plan on how they are be distributed and a system to get the shots into the arm ahead of time (lame to pathetic ) in the US in many locales.
     Excuse: We don’t know how many we will get. Nonsense, you can plan for various levels, but have the call lists and appointment setup so you don’t have thousand showing up in a line like several states have right now.

     2. Covd-19 will Morph: Yes we know it will morph, yes keep testing for it. But unless you know what it morphed to, you can’t get ahead of it because you have no data to work with.

     Now we have some data on the UK variant and limited on the South African one.

     Granted we could just shut the world down and lock down until all are vaccinated. And how many people die as a result of no food, water or medicine?

     We know what is still effective and we have a remedy on the way.

     What more?

     • “Plan on how they are be distributed and a system to get the shots into the arm ahead of time in the US in many locales.”

       Fact check:
       U.S. vaccinations in 2020 fall far short of target of 20 million people
       “Only about 2.8 million Americans had received a COVID-19 vaccine going into the last day of December, putting the United States far short of the government’s target to vaccinate 20 million people this month.”

       When fed gov’t refused to fund states vaccinations …. and no one takes responsibility to ensure a successful rollout of vaccinations. This is what happens when there are no adults in the room.

       • The reality-based fact check:

         1. Warp Speed provided the promised 20 million doses by today (01/04/21). With another 20 million held in reserve for second shots.

         2. States have received 15 million (75%) of those shots as of today. Limited only by their ordering.

         3. States have administered 5 million (25%) of those shots, ranging from 65% to 15% depending on the state’s level of preparedness. Those numbers are climbing roughly by about 10% per week of active administration.

         4. The most recent daily vaccination rate is almost 2 million shots per day. That is on course for the nation to be vaccinated by mid-year, and is still significantly growing, as above. It will clear up the backlog of dosages during January, especially as the states receive more aid. It will eventually outpace the supply of vaccine.

         5. The above was achieved in the span of 3 weeks, including Christmas and New Years holidays. And with the long-term care program active only for the last several days, just starting really.

         6. The second shots of vaccination will occur beginning at the end of this week, so another 15 million will ship over the next month, in addition to the continuing growth in first shot rates.

         So while it’s clear that states could be more organized and less scattered in their response, and the federal government could and should help with that, it’s not an insignificant thing to have done this.

         A lot of people working really hard to make it happen. I know some of them, they gave up most of their holiday time, and I have volunteered to help them as I could. So a little appreciation would be in order. Anyone can sit behind a computer and bitch. No skills required. Quite different to actually do the work, and be in the trenches.

         • @Rob

           From ABC/CBS/NBC

           “According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s COVID data tracker, as of 9 a.m. Saturday, 13 million doses of vaccines have been distributed, but only 4.2 million people have received them.

           That’s well short of the 20 million vaccinations Operation Warp Speed leaders promised they’d deliver by December 2020.”

           13m doses of vaccines have been distributed, not 15m received by states nor 20m provided by Warp Speed.

           Why the difference between the number of doses distributed by Warp Speed and those received by states?? Where are the missing 5m doses?

         • @Rob

           Thanks for this!

           This time it’s Serious -At last full on war terminology finds it’s home

           ‘the trenches’ no less – throwback WWI? 1918 ‘flu?

           Truth is in the Trenches!

         • Pedro, the CDC maintains a public database of COVID data. That is the authoritative source reported by your news outlets. WaPo and NYT also use direct reporting from the states, where that is available. Not every state provides it.

           Bottom line, the CDC reports 4.7 million doses as of this moment, and we know there is a reporting lag. Also CDC reports 15.4 million doses distributed as of this moment. I rounded both to the nearest million. 5 million is a solid estimate for likely doses administered as of today. It will appear in tomorrow’s data.

           I know some here prefer to base opinions on non-authoritative sources, as suits their agenda. But authoritative sources do exist, for those that are more interested in the truth.

         • Successful leaders have a good grasp on the potential risks of a project and their impact *before* starting the project, not during execution;
           they are proactive, not reactive.

           You can shoot the messenger, but it won’t change your reality.

         • @Rob
           From WaPo as of *Jan 4 afternoon*
           4.6m doses administered
           15.4 doses distributed

         • Pedro, you are the one shooting, not me. I only pointed out how off-base your shooting is.

           You take pot-shots having done nothing to help or to contribute. And you completely ignore what has been achieved, the benefit provided, and the work done by others, whatever the potential for improvement may be. You completely ignore the rate of progress, and the progress that has been made on the rate of progress. The first and second derivatives are very positive here.

           All necessary to pursue your agenda. But not truly representative of reality. Which is why I spoke up.

         • The CDC reports are lagging because health providers are not fully trained on using the computer system for reporting inoculations and many of their staff are overworked and exhausted.

           Who’s to blame??

         • “‘the trenches’ no less – throwback WWI? 1918 ‘flu?
           Truth is in the Trenches!”

           If you take a peek at dominant language in the media today the acute observer will notice that we are in a rather similar state to the pre WWI years.

         • Pedro, I think your comment highlights the difference between us. My response to the problem is, how can I help? Your response is, who can I blame?

           Blaming others never achieved anything, in all the long history of humanity. But it sure can fill the pages of an Internet forum.

           The truth is that the vaccinations are off to a slow start, not just in the US, but around the world. That doesn’t have a simple cause, there are many. Planning is definitely among them.

           But also true that people are learning and improving and acting to address the causes. So the rate is increasing and will continue to increase. The US has finally passed $9B in aid to states for vaccination efforts. Other countries are acting similarly.

           Some countries may extend periods between shots. Some may lower the dose. But many options being considered, and it helps us all, to explore all of them.

           We can all help in some way. Whether by volunteering, or being vaccinated, or helping others to become vaccinated, being supportive of the efforts in general, of those who carry the medical burden, and of those who may be down with COVID. And especially as JakDak pointed out, don’t allow yourself to become a transmission vector. Protect others and yourself.

         • Yes, Rob, we know.
           “Blaming others never achieved anything, in all the long history of humanity.”

           And yet:
           You’re well able to apportion blame to Boeing employees for poor QC — even though that’s management’s responsibility.
           And to blame Asian/African pilots for the MAX crashes.
           And to blame the Trump administration for the epidemiological situation in the US.

           So, either you’ve come to realize the futility of such scapegoating (very doubtful), or you’re just windowdressing the narrative to suit the situation.

         • @Uwe

           The US has dreamed up war on most things, drugs, terror and so on, none of which are ever won, it’s tough to win wars on things or abstractions or on one’s own weaknesses

           War has been declared on the virus, everyone is conscripted, and also…. a trade war on China, and maybe even a real war , or what passes for real war these days which is gray zone war

           I think trenches are out ’cause of social distancing requirements, even if gas marks fit the bill

           !Truth is War ! Freedom is War !

         • Rob: Those in charge (e.g. higher-ups of Boeing) have to take (full) responsibility, not spinning excuses or keep saying: I learned my lesson; hey look at the bright side, there’s improvement!

         • Very large difference between blaming and determining the source of problems, their solutions, and responsibility. Again we see the method by which words and meaning are assigned to others, that are actually those of the author. Part of the theorist playbook.

           The FAA did not blame the pilots, nor have I. They did determine that pilot actions contributed to the accidents, and acted accordingly, which has been accepted around the world. I have agreed with and supported that conclusion.. That is the truth.

           I have said that Boeing management and labor both have a responsibility for quality control. That too is the truth, at least everywhere outside this forum. FOD is left behind by workers, that is obvious.

           I have not said that problems don’t exist with US vaccinations, or that the entities involved don’t have responsibility for them. But as with the two examples above, the purpose is to understand and improve. And at least in my case, to personally help.

           Very far removed from the sentiments of the theorists here, whose only goal is to point to problems as evidence for their theories. Whether problems actually get solved, or are being solved, is of no relevance to them. Hence we see the constant streams of criticism intended to tear down.

           But as noted before, that doesn’t work in the real world. For every Bryce or Gerrard or Pedro, there are dozens more others out there working every day to help and improve and get things done. That includes medical staff, pilots, workers. management, the government. It just doesn’t include the theorists, they are busy filling forums with the opposite message.

           Reality has shown which of these methods is actually meaningful, relevant, and impactful in the real world. The theorists have been proven wrong, again and again and again. And will be this time too.

         • Pedro, they have taken full responsibility. They just haven’t done the things you want them to do. There’s a significant difference. They are not accountable to you, or to others here.

           Reasons are not excuses, they are problems to pursue and resolve. They are only excuses to you, because again, it’s not what you want. But what you want has no relevance to the reality.

           This is why the departure from reality is required for the criticisms. And why corrections to those criticisms are likewise required.

         • Time to put down your rose-colored glasses:

           The current CEO (after 10 years on the Board of Directors, and as lead director for many of them) claimed he was no insider (thereby refused to accept any responsibility). He merely had “a front row seat in the movie theatre.”

         • I doubt anyone connected with reality would accept Warp Speed’s claim of 20 million doses at face value and expect 20 million inoculated in less than a month (i.e. by Dec 31).

           That’s not stopping a few commentators from spinning ever optimistic projections. Funny now they tried to white wash and claimed to be victims.

         • Pedro, there is no question that the vaccination effort has not met expectations. The more important question is why.

           The reason is not that Warp Speed failed or that vaccine is not available. The CDC data clearly show that. The reason is that most states were not adequately prepared. So that is where the focus needs to be now.

           Congress delayed the aid package which contained the $9B state funding for more than a month, over other battles. So the vaccine became available before the funding to support it did.

           Additionally the Trump administration has continued to stick to the line that states are responsible for themselves and don’t need help. As also happened with PPE. But those problems were solved and these will be too.

           In the meantime, we can give credit to those working for/in the states that have pushed out 5M doses in 3 weeks. They are also sitting on another 10M doses, that is a huge problem and more resources are needed to address it.

           We can also give credit to Warp Speed for delivering more than 15M doses to the states, as requested. Biden may change Warp Speed’s mission to include management within the states, we’ll have to see what happens.

     • @TW

       Key phrase you use ‘unless you know what it morphed to’

       You are condemned, under your scenario, to play eternal catch up

       Catch up is not a plan nor a program

       It’s like, I hate to say this, MCAS, you always, well they always, those who died, they always find out the hard way

       And those responsible get to play tricks on tractors

   • @ Bryce

     Exactly

     I would add that is Pharma – much more profitable that way

     That way the pandemic pecomes permanent

     • Vaccine Distribution Disaster – Update

       This is the bureaucratic in efficiency on sale in New York

       https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-04/cuomo-seeks-to-speed-up-n-y-vaccine-doses-as-54-remain-unused

       http://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/coronavirus/2020/12/28/cuomo-to-order–1m-for-vaccine-fraud–covid-19-infection-rate-jumps

       • If this happened in New *Delhi*, the corporate cronie club (CCC) would be scoffing and talking about inferior standards (just like with Asian pilots). But this is New *York*.
         It seems the Wild West is further east than previously thought.
         But not to worry: our local CCC chairman is still fully confident that the vaccine rollout is going smoothly.

         • Never said there weren’t problems, just that more is achieved by working to address them than pointing to them as proof that one’s views are correct. Again the projection of the author’s views onto others, as is necessary for his ridicule. In that sense, he ridicules himself.

           The Cuomo reactions won’t help as they don’t address the root causes. Nor will making vaccination mandatory, as he has also suggested. What will help is to provide the resources needed by the health care providers. That funding is in the pipeline.

     • VDD – NY #2 The Gulag Reborn

       Mandatory imprisonment legislation on offer from NY Senate

       https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/bills/2021/a416

       NY uses inaccurate PCR tests

       • VDD NY Take Three

         Cuomo’s record is the worst but it is getting worst – er

         https://rossbarkan.substack.com/p/why-isnt-new-york-vaccinating-more

         ‘Yet more than 38,000 people have died of coronavirus in New York. In raw numbers this is, by far, the highest death toll in America. Per capita, it ranks second to New Jersey, which likely suffered for its close proximity to New York. In New York City alone, more than 25,000 have died from COVID-19. Cuomo failed utterly to contain the virus and lock down the city in early March when COVID-19 was first spreading. He kept comparing coronavirus to the flu and proclaimed the fear of the virus was worse than the virus itself.
         “The facts here,” Cuomo said on March 11th, when coronavirus was rapidly infecting thousands, “actually reduce the anxiety.”
         “How many people died in the United States from the flu last year? Roughly 80,000 from the flu. So, again, perspective.”’’

         This is the same Saint Cuomo idolised by the propaganda machine who exulted in his success sloganed & sold his underwear and… fiddled while it all burned down

         Truth is Prison!

         • Interesting that NY and CA (both deep blue states) are making such a mess of the whole thing. I thought that the blues were “following the science”? No point blaming the WH: in the US, healthcare is administered at state level (McCarran-Ferguson Act.).

           Doesn’t look good for traffic at the three big airports in NY/NJ.

         • The administration issue is skewing to the most populous states, which are receiving vaccine at the highest rates. None of those states are above 33%, after the latest shipments this week. They are still ramping up capacity.

           In the less populous states, the rates are generally better because they have less vaccine to administer. Some exceptions, but the Dakotas are high, DC, Iowa, New Hampshire, etc.

           A good example is Chicago. The city was well prepared and have administered 95% of their allocated vaccine. They requested more but the state refused, even though they have 250,000 doses unused around the state. Illinois is at 30% overall. There’s going to be frustration around those discrepancies, as administration rates differ by locale.

           Chicago is an early predictor of what will happen nationwide as capacity builds over the next month or so. The administration rate will eventually become limited by supply.

10. Of serious interest on MAX

    https://www.satcom.guru/2021/01/mid-value-select-mvs-goldilocks-in.html

    • EASA insists the addition of a third AoA sensor.

      • What’s your point, Pedro?

        EASA is not insisting on a third AoA sensor. They are, however, insisting on a third AoA reading as a check on the two sensors, for example, a synthetic AoA.

      • Yes, for the case of precision approaches on autopilot, to provide an option other than a missed approach in the event of AoA vane failure. The FAA position is that a missed approach is ok in US airspace. The third vane will be an enhancement for this purpose in EU airspace.

        Peter’s analysis was to show that the MVS algorithm was a valid solution for the two-vane differential reading problem. EASA agrees with that as well.

        • None of this data pulling (or polling) is easy.

          What is not understood, its alwyas been fudged, going back to the day of mechanical direct reading.

          Quick changing value are of no use, too slow and they do not show what you need to see.

          Back in the day it was gears that adjusted it (anyone ever look at a Norden bomb sight or a firing computer on WWI-WWII warship or the Command Control on a FW-190 ?)

          Now its all stuffed into a electronic box but you still need to provide data that works so they use program fudging to so so.

          I contend for an airline pilot AOA is wasted, get rid of it. I have yet to see a rational for it on commercial aircraft other than fighter pilots that used to fill many of those seats were used to it.

    • What Lemme presents reads like a lot of “right fudging” of data sources I’ve come across over many years.
      Solutions that left something to be desired ( like introducing funny artefacts).

      An infatution with contrived,convoluted solutions.
      I doubt that breaching the brickwall further results in a more reliable solution than just adding a third vane (“KISS”)

      • Third vane is not a cure-all either. Peter talks about that, and it’s well documented in Airbus incidents. That’s why the FAA concluded it wouldn’t appreciably add to safety. But it also doesn’t hurt, so no objection to the EASA requirement. My guess is Boeing will retain the MVS as well.

        • A third vane does no add anything to this system. The AOA is only a trigger to a open loop system, not used for control. Therefore, the third cane would only add availability to this system, which is not the problem. A two came design with split comparison already adds the required integrity which the system was needing. It is similar to stick pusher designs. The A320 on the other hand uses the AOA as feedback for controls, and therefore, you need three sources for integrity and availability.
          Just as a curiosity, the E2 has four independent sources of AOA, but uses Integrated pitots with air pressure sensing only, instead of vanes.

        • “Third vane is not a cure-all either. Peter talks about that, and it’s well documented in Airbus incidents.”

          In the probabilities domain you have no “cure all” available ( even if you stay on the ground: comet could hit you :-).
          What you get is another 9 in the string of nines for reliability.
          Available data for A320 vs 737(MAX) proves that soundly. 35 years of A320 use and relevant incidents countable on one hand.

          “A320 has issues too”, my foot!

          • 737 has flown for a very long time with similar safety record to the A320, without the third vane. So the basic point made above is correct. Pointing this out is not an attack on the A320, or an attempt to declare superiority of one over the other. Nothing is achieved or contributed by attacking those who reference the truth.

11. Reuters (and CNBC): “Big Four” U.S. airlines are going to go down to three.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN2991JV

    • Hard to see any combination that works outright. Break up an airline and sell it off in pieces to other carriers? If it is AA, perhaps Alaska gets a hub at O’Hare?

      • Taxpayers arent going to provide funding to takeover another airline , no matter how convenient. Reducing competition is never ‘going to fly ‘.
        If one airline, say AA is weaker because of the poor choices its made , so be it.

      • Here’s a collection of views from various sources:

        https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremybogaisky/2021/12/29/whats-ahead-for-airlines-and-aviation-in-2021/?sh=2745d53436ad

        And a more optimistic view on American;

        https://www.forbes.com/sites/tedreed/2021/12/30/airline-shares-will-end-2020-down-but-the-sky-did-not-fall-and-americans-bankruptcy-never-happened/?sh=385aede76e04

        In the end, it all depends on the speed of recovery. Airlines need passengers. With them they survive, without them they don’t survive without significant downsizing and adjustment.

12. Rolls-royce followed almost exactly the same business model as Boeing and is in almost exactly the same hole.

    • Less heft, may be the 70s all over again

    • “exactly the same business model as Boeing …”
      And what was that model ?
      RR builds from small helicopter turbines , diesels to turboprops to submarine nuclear reactors and marine gas turbines, and is well known for small to large large commercial turbofans as well as military fast jets turbofans. How could it follow Boeing ?

      • About 50% military sales, just like Boeing, check
        Lots of forward accounting, check
        Share price pumping, check
        Never going to make any money from the 787,check
        Cancellation of vital R&D, check
        Technical failures leading to large scale groundings, check.
        No money coming in from passenger aircraft side, check.

        • Unprecedented pandemic and resulting downturn in the industry, reducing air travel by 60% to 70%, with follow-on dramatic contraction and other consequences for all manufacturers. Check.

        • I would add:

          Overpromise checked
          Underdeliver checked

          Boeing’s 737 MAX (sloppy design and engineering, lack of safety concern), 787 (sloppy manufacturing+QC/QA, overproduction, flooding the market by discounts) and 777X problems are largely self-made, on top of an act of God.

          • With the Act of God clearly dominating all other issues in significance, by every measure.

          • @ Rob

            « With the Act of God clearly dominating all other issues in significance, by every measure.
            «
            This is a foolish statement

            You may as well describe the Max crashes as an act of God

            The virus crossover is an act of nature in reaction to the acts of man, which mutated over from a quiet and stable as far as we know, existence in bats, because of increasing human encroachment on his habitat

            This is not an act of God – It is the act of man, and for 20 or 25 years similar encroachments have produced similar crossovers, it’s not as tho’ you were not warned

            Yet you closed your minds and preferred to wallow in ignorance, and now, when the predictable results of your foolish laziness comes back to bite you, you blame God

            This is exactly the Boeing management mindset –

            To observe pandemic response failure and propaganda in the west, in particular in the US, is to observe the failures and Corporate PR of Boeing writ large

            The failures of Boeing turn out to be the ordinary failures of the westies, in particular the americans, no point in listing them, they know who they are, they have been extensively analysed by Leeham
            Death spiral may be a description of Boeing, together with some unlikely resurrection in another world, probably Third, if they are lucky Second

            No such resurrection is on hand for the US

          • Yes, Gerrard, we are very familiar with your theories. Thanks for the recap.

          • @Rob

            So you have found your Path at last

            Whatever happened to ‘follow the science’

            Now it’s ‘Follow the Gods’

            !Freedom is Work

          • “With the Act of God clearly dominating all other issues in significance, by every measure.”

            Like water vapor in the atmosphere Acts of God are exponentiators. they are not causse.
            ( But really happy to help along in misery..)

          • @Uwe

            « « The term “act of God” has endured from ancient law and is said to “comprehend all misfortunes and accidents arising from inevitable necessity which human prudence could not foresee or prevent.” Black’s Law Dictionary defines an “act of God” as “[a]n overwhelming, unpreventable event caused exclusively by forces of nature, such as an earthquake, flood, or tornado.” « «

            Well this virus could have been seen a’coming from a long way off, it’s the last to emerge in a long series going back 20+ years

            Another key word often used is uncontrollable – it looks like the US is out of control I grant you, but there are many other instances and countries which seem well in control, and the US itself is said to be struggling to bring the thing under control and they say they hope they can

            But if they can not, then this will be the Act of God

          • I think they called it Intelligent Design, granted given the specific results you have to argue even the intelligent part.

            Much like MCAS 1.0, could anyone manage to do better (worse) if they set out to do so?

          • Rob:

            You again ignore (conveniently ) the fact that RR screwed up its blade design on all its engine for some time.

            That is the valid comparison to Boeing who screwed up on program after another.

            Crappy management has known consequences.

        • “About 50% military sales, just like Boeing, check”
          Not so . 2019 RR figures show military revenue was £3.25 bill out of £15.45 bill. Basic arithmetic gives 21%. Power systems is 2nd behind civil aerospace and Defence is 3rd.
          Boeing numbers dont add up either , 2018 ( the last full year of normal deliveries) had commercial at 60% of revenue $101 bill and Defence and Space at 23%.
          The rest of the claims are just silly nonsense, without any pretence at being honest opinion.

        • Last but not least:

          Net deficit (i.e. Total liabilities > Total assets)

          RR ~US$8 billion
          BA $11.2 billion

          • @ Pedro

            BA net debt is quoted at approx $41B

          • BA

            Total debt is at $60.96 billion, with $57.33 billion in long-term debt and $3.63 billion in current debt. Adjusting for $10.56 billion in cash-equivalents, the company has a net debt of $50.40 billion.

            Total assets 161.3 billion
            Total liabilities 172.8 billion
            Minority interest 0.3 billion
            Shareholders’ deficit (negative book value) 11.8 billion

            Correction:
            previous post BA $11.2 billion should be 11.8 billion

          • @Pedro

            Usually quoted and useful is net debt, only including cash or cash like assets

            Otherwise other assets are notoriously hard to calculate and in many cases to realise

            I’ve seen figures as high as $50B as low as $30B approx, usually around $40B

            Where do your asset and liabilities figures come from

            BA Assets will be very hard to value right now, I should think subject to massive write downs

            Please note that BA were out fuishing to see if a stock sale would be accepted by WS, they were told no

            They are selling real estate

            What other assets are they selling right now, and what are they doing to raise cash? Or what can they do?

            Cash burn is said likely to hold up to current $5B per quarter for 2021

            It looks unlikely that any assets they may have will serve to raise the $30B?/40B required for a new plane plan

            Or, please advise

          • Boeing’s Q3 balance sheet
            You can check with SEC 10-Q.

            https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/ba/financials/balance-sheet/quarter

    • Time for Siemens and Safran to meet in Strasbourg for some tea and tarte tatin, and have a little chat about a possible aeroengine joint venture. Angie and Nicolas should join in to help things along. The EU — like China — needs to be less dependent on foreign OEMs.

13. Airbus beat 2020 delivery goal of 560

    Boeing to close manufacturing R&D in Seattle

    • Building is closed, R&D already moved to other locations for some time, beginning with 777x development. Facility involves 29 workers who will be utilized elsewhere.

    • Having a local “skunk works”, like Lockheed’s, would be a strategic adv. Short-sighted mgt wouldn’t be able to grasp that.

      A person familiar with the closue, expressed fear that future development work would be contracted out of state.

      A co. spokesman said it has not been determined where the current workers at ADC would go.

      Oct 28 Boeing announced to lay off 7,000 as losses mount. Boeing would cut 20% of its headcount to130,000 by the end of 2021.

      Boeing needs not one but two new aeroplanes family?? Calhoun thinks not.

      • Pedro: Boeing management is the Skunk Works!

14. I agree Boeing might need two aircraft developments to restore full competitiveness with Airbus.

    One of them might be a bit slower, smaller than the A320, 737. And have less range.

    But be so fuel efficient, quiet, comfortable, affordable and practical, the airlines order it from the drawing board.

    A 70t, 250 seat 5000nm SUV hardly creates a frown in Toulouse, Maribel.

    • @Keesje

      Nice ideas – where’s the money coming from?

      BA management obviously thinks different – they’re not even bothering to lie to you about their new planes plans

      That’s a First!

      • where’s the money coming from?

        From their biggest customer, financer, principal, tax agent, bank, R&D partner, law maker, tax agent, authority, helper.

        • And lots of it, same thing for RR.
          So they won’t learn their lesson.

        • @Keesje

          A bail out? BA refused a bail out: you mean the US gvmt is going to force them to take a bail out?

          And why should US want to do that ? A mistaken notion of pride in the ….whatever

          Why should the US not behave in just the same way Boeing behaves? You think that BA’s behaviour is aberrant not the same old?

          i.e. DoD takes over defence rump via x corp, throws the scraps to WS to feed their grinder

          • Perhaps Airbus taking over the commercial division would be the most attractive option for the US tax player?

          • @Gerrard, no bail outs, no subsidies, don’t use this wording.

            But at the end of the day “big government” is looking at how much they “invested” in terms of tax breaks, R&D support, DoD orders, banking, pushing.

            And how much “they” (& the nation, electorate) is getting back for it, kind of ROI.

            Of course Boeing will look independent, brave and all that, but if they didn’t deliver on their promises, value for the nation, some very senior people from Washington make calls with the BoD.

            They’ll ask for lessons learned, quality & securing a long term strategic position in civil aerospace. And they better have a convincing roadmap soon.

          • @Grubbie

            You are naughty, what would mother say!

          • @Keesje

            I am sure that many people in US ruling class circles would say yes we’d like to have a competitive and successful plane maker

            I just think that many more, and many more powerful people, would prefer to make their money elsehow, either by asset stripping the company or by off shoring or both, which in fact has been happening for some time now

            US industrial particularly manufacturing base has been off shored : this has so far proved profitable

            There’s a lot of hat about on shoring but no cattle

            What, apart from DoD rump as a separate issue, would induce anyone to put together the right coalition to invest $50B or $100B in Boeing, in circumstances where there may be so little confidence of an positive as opposed to a negative ROI

            The US that looked at industry in the way you suggest and was capable of this organising an economy has long vanished

            They can’t get it together to ‘do’ 5G, which looks like a very big deal, how come they could scrape together any attention for such a poison pill as BA

          • As regards Boeing defense contracts, Dem administrations tend to be less interested in defense spending than Reps…so that doesn’t look good for Boeing.
            Also, the Dems say they’re more interested in Main Street than in Wall Street, so that doesn’t bode well for Boeing either…except, perhaps, in the form of a last-ditch nationalization (à la Freddie and Fannie) 😉

          • @Bryce

            Dems have been saying they help the working class they help minorities they are anti WS etc for a long time

            Yet dems lying

            They consistently bail out WS, they get more money from WS than the other guys do, they never help the workers

            They are fully supported by Silicon V and vice versa, that’s why one might expect more censorship more so called software solutions to industrial on shoring and less avid pursuit of anti trust actions Google and Facebook

            Not to contradict you! But they are also beating wardrums Russia China, after saying Trump was Putin..etc etc

            I would hopeless from them even than

            Plus it looks like a kind of civil war is brewing…which tends to bring out the worst in all parties – let’s turn our attention to countries and continents with more interest and promise, vis-à-vis aviation and pandemic response

        • Good luck trying to persuade Calhoun. His eyes are fixated on share price.

          CNBC
          › 2020/12/16 ›

          Boeing CEO dismisses idea that company will turn to a massive stock sale to knock down debt

          • @Pedro

            WS does not want Boeing stock diluted

            How does Boeing pay down debt and raise cash to survive, and raise cash for one or even two new planes projects?

            Max + 787 will not do it : DoD will chip in a bit only

            Looks tough……?

          • Easy answer:

            B puts up its military businesses for auction to raise cash $$$$.

            Expect Loockheed, Grumman and Airbus to bid, with DOD keeping watch. No Chinese need apply.

            Civilian side thus recapitalized survives a few years while management flourishes, then goes bankrupt.

            Timeframe 5 to 10 years.

            Bet anyone?

          • @Doubting Thomas

            The only piece of business of Boeing worth anything to anyone is that DoD, but they’ll make sure they get it on the cheap

            The rest is a junk bond sale

            WS will asset strip some more, maybe hawk some bits and pieces to China at junk to junk cut rate, then discard

15. EU vaccine roll out crticised as in efficent ‘even’ as US

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/01/05/changed-utterly-changed-vaccine-blunder-shook-europe/

    • The basic message is correct, but it’s frilled-up a bit by British newspapers such as the Telegraph, who love throwing stones at the EU. After all, if “Global Britain is to prosper mightily”, then it must first try to convince its citizens that leaving the EU was the right decision 😉

      Conversely, EU newspapers have equal fun pointing out the total cowboy-ism in the UK with regard to extending the gap between doses, and even potentially mixing doses from different manufacturers.

      • @Bryce

        I take your point about UK snipering of EU, yet I thought the portrait of Macron assez juste – the technocratic veneer of the authoritarian PMC as per US worn thin by the reality of the struggle to formulate a policy for virus survival that might avoid the pitfalls of two cent lockdowns and victim blaming while preserving modicum idpol sacralities

        In a country less known for it’s craven submission to corporate compliance or to a régime which is appearing, as the US, ever more ancien

        Such lowering of vaccine uptake intention, as in US, does not augur well for an élite torn between fear of the people and the desire to crush them

        • In the specific case of France, there is a long-standing mistrust of big pharma…and a concurrently low desire to get vaccinated. In fact, the French have the lowest projected uptake in Europe (~50%). So, perhaps, there isn’t much animo to get vaccines rolled out dans ce pays.

          Other EU countries are proceeding at a greater pace. And, as you may know, the Moderna variant got a green light today from the EMA, so that should accelerate the pace from next week onward.

          Thanks to macaques, we should know within about 6 weeks to what extent all of this may have been futile (à la SA variant).

        • Bryce:

          As a citizen of the original cowboy nation I take umbrage in the attempt to convey Brits as Cowboys.

          Pigs will self fly before that happens (or the QE II resigns and lets Chuck have the job!)

          • @ TW
            Good point.
            Perhaps “jester” or “second-hand car salesman” would be worthy substitutes.

          • Bryce:

            Jester works, just don’t try to steal our Mo-jo!.

            Speaking of which had you viewed the Georgia election results? Now that is Cowboy at work in the true negative sense.

            Clown also works.

        • @ Gerrard
          I presume you noticed in the CNBC link that I posted above that in-the-field work is already showing that the new SA variant appears to be resistant to antibody therapy (e.g Regeneron). This would suggest that this variant also arose in an immunocompromised patient receiving prolonged antibody treatment. An example of “antibody therapy escape”.
          Where the virus is concerned “whatever doesn’t kill it only makes it stronger”

          • @Bryce

            Yes I did, it was a very interesting link from many points of view

            The adaptive mutations on display are remarkable instances of natural selection at warp speed, if I may coin a phrase

            Hurry up vaccination was one response, which seemed out of place given how rapidly the escape mutants are spreading and how very slowly vaccination is proceeding, pace CC mutant deniers here

            « experts noted that one of the biggest potential consequences of emerging variants is their “ability to evade natural or vaccine-induced immunity.” »

            I thought this signalled the beginning of the end for current ‘measures’ and vaxx programs, in the sense that the virus was accumulating the conditions for imminent vaccine escape, precisely in reaction to human vaccine or antibody treatments, so that accelerating vaccination much more greatly accelerated VOCs

            Is this a correct description of what these VOCs indicate ? If so, within the traditional containment eradication paradigm so far attempted, what can be done ? apart from wearing a mask if you can, and jabs to palliate the disease

            Nothing much ?

          • @ Gerrard
            The “C” in “VOC” can be based on various things, e.g. increased transmission rate, vaccine escape, therapy escape, etc.
            For a good illustration of how the “C” can play out in practice, just look at the explosive graphs for Ireland, which is currently experiencing its biggest surge yet despite some of the most stringent lockdown restrictions in Europe, and where at least 30% of cases is believed to be due to the UK variant (Dublin-London is the busiest air route in Europe).
            Notice the steepness of the exponential climb at the end of each graph!
            https://epidemic-stats.com/coronavirus/ireland

            So, “follow the science” is a fantasy that doesn’t work in practice for the vast majority of countries on the planet.

          • This is a false argument. As others have pointed out here, the dominate issue is compliance. Science is not responsible for non-adherence to the science. Both are needed to be effective.

            Plenty of countries have demonstrated this, including those that have a surge at present. They have been successful in the past in driving down Rt, and will be again.

            In the US, as we saw yesterday, compliance was sabotaged by negative messaging that the science was wrong or ineffective, which is the same false message being put forth here. Most of those people did not have masks or follow precautions, because they have accepted the message that the science was wrong, Just as they have accepted the message that the election was stolen.

            These are both examples of the same thing. Pure, unfounded and unsubstantiated conspiracy theories, that are meant to cause harm to the many, to support the personal delusions of the few.

            So once again, the truth is that science works, and the more people that understand this and comply, the lower the Rt value, and the lower the impact of COVID on society.

      • Extending the gap between vaccine doses has previously shown benefits
        As for the rest of the EU, maybe popular newspapers who show a certain hauteur at UK shouldnt be relied on.

        “German health minister Jens Spahn has reportedly asked the Robert Koch Institute, the country’s disease control agency, to look into extending the period between the first and second vaccine dose,…”
        https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n18

        • Extending the gap seemed to show a benefit for the specific case of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine — though the trial involved was only on a relatively small number of people, and all were under 55.
          Other than for that specific vaccine, the article clearly states:
          “What’s the evidence for changing the schedule? There isn’t much for the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine”

        • More on the recklessness of these desperation-driven experiments in the UK:

          https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/07/risky-to-delay-second-covid-vaccine-shots-in-the-uk-ex-fda-director.html

16. Reporting out of Reuters and WSJ today is the mRNA vaccines are expected to be effective against the SA variant.

    Reason given is that the vaccines produce a broad response to the enabling spike protein, both in antibodies and T-cells, and not just those protein areas affected by the mutations.

    This is consistent with the measured high efficacies of the vaccines. As noted earlier from the history of such vaccines, the high efficacies are associated with broad capture, as well as reductions in transmissivity and long term immunity.

    Some reduction in efficacy may occur. The conclusive test data will be available from South Africa this week or next.

    • @Rob

      Language language language

      The word used by the researcher quoted by Reuters was – Not ‘expected’ but ‘thought’ : expected is not very confident, thought is barely much more than not confident and very conditional

      Cite the link so the people may read for themselves

      This is not new news reporting it is one, one, of the original SA researchers mildly re iterating what has been already said how long ago? two hours, two days

      His language is very, very conditional – your’s is in direct contradiction of his

      https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-safrica-vaccines/south-african-variant-unlikely-to-completely-negate-covid-vaccines-scientist-says-idUSKBN29A27R

      “Why we’ve been a bit cautious about flagging out the concern about the (effectiveness of) vaccines is that for many of the vaccines they are thought to induce quite a broad immune response,” he said.

      That broad response could target different parts of the spike protein, not just one, he added.

      “That’s why we think that although these mutations may have some effect, they are very unlikely to completely negate the effect of the vaccines,” Lessells said. »

      You say ‘Conclusive’ test data will be released soon- really so conclusive so quick ?

      What the researcher said was the very opposite of what you had him say

      « Preliminary results from those studies may be ready by the end of this week, Lessells said. »

      In finis : Honestly to have transcribed the report and not Maxxed it out you ought to have written, maybe ‘ First indications from a preliminary and rapid study of the initial test data so far available and this is very early days you know, tend to illustrate that this VOC may…. And should….studies are on going and SA will keep you informed etc.’

      These experts are less in a rush than you are, and less concerned with share boosting Pharma PR-Speak than with saving human lives and telling what they see as the truth

      It may be necessary to install a Three Strikes system – that’s One

    • @Rob

      Addendum – The Reuters quoted researcher used the term ‘vaccines’ without distinction – you introduce ‘mRNA vaccines’ into your report as if this was not only part of the Reuters report but in any way newsworthy

      Perhaps because the Reuters article also quoted the hopes of Sahin who has been doing a lot of hoping for his invention, but it may be seen he is an interested party

      Strike Two

      • @ Gerrard
        For people with an astute intellect and good reading skills, the phrase “will probably retain some efficacy” is definitely not the same as the phrase “will remain effective”. Even clear clues to the difference — such as the text segment “unlikely to be *totally* resistant to the shots” (emphasis added) — seem to be lost on some people.

        Update on China:
        Despite “following the science”, China reports most COVID cases in five months as Hebei infections rise:

        https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-cases/china-reports-most-covid-cases-in-five-months-as-hebei-infections-rise-idUSKBN29C019

        https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/07/china-locks-down-part-of-province-outside-beijing-as-coronavirus-cases-spike.html

        • @Bryce

          The trouble is these people have recourse to an ideology which seems to allow them to say whatever they want and believe that it is correct : like tantruming very young children

          I do not think he read the Reuters article, if he did he saw only what he wanted to see and did not read nor understand what the interviewee said

          This was common behaviour with Max discussions, it’s commoner now the stakes are higher

          In any case as I have said before it is time to turn away from parochial discussions with provincial exceptionalists and take a world view with more specific attention to China Asia reactions, as it is there that economic recovery and future growth will not only spur the aviation industry but provide solutions to the vaccine enigmas/paradoxes and travel solutions

          So your China linking is perfectly well timed !

          I will read and revert

        • @Bryce

          So in China, so in Japan – but it seems Tokyo is much worse off than China

          They still hope to hold the games, which would have been, maybe will, a good test of Asian style containment and safety measures on a large scale
          https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-japan-idUSKBN29C03O

          I see the SA strrain is in China and the report very reasonably says

          « Some scientists worry that COVID-19 vaccines currently being rolled out may not be able to protect against this variant because of certain mutations that have been observed. »

          It takes time for the researchers to catch up with the VOCs – and their language remains rational as opposed to the overbearing pomposity of the snake oil sellers

          The Asia Times reports that this may have already snuck into Beijing

          https://asiatimes.com/2021/01/biggest-covid-outbreak-since-wuhan-creeps-toward-beijing/

          And provides praise for mrna vaccines as opposed to those being developed in China

          • @Gerrard

            Thanks for that stunning article from Asia Times. The situation in China appears to be alarming. Even though the numbers are low by western standards, they’re still increasing steadily despite ultra-rigorous measures.
            I had already read this morning about the state of emergency in Tokyo: hardly surprising, seeing as it’s the most populous city on the planet (40 million).
            One can praise the tenacity of all Asian nations who, up to now, have managed to keep their numbers under control…but it’s a losing/futile game against this virus, particularly the new ultra-virulent variants. From that point of view, the clock is ticking for Singapore, Taiwan, NZ and Aus.
            Anyone with any illusions that air traffic is going to be normalizing any time soon, is living in an alternate reality.

            I find it difficult to understand the text at the end of the article w.r.t. vaccines: the language is convoluted (perhaps because of poor translation). But Prof. Zhanqiu seems to be intimating that:
            – mRNA vaccines are particularly suited to preventing symptom development in infected individuals (“neutralize the virus already present or latent in a confirmed patient or asymptomatic carrier.), but less effective at preventing infection in the first place;
            – The Chinese vaccines are particularly suited to preventing infection from occurring in the first place (“offer protection from Covid-19 for uninfected people”), but less effective at symptom mitigation in instances where infection does occur.

          • @Bryce

            I think I interpreted the final phrases concerning the mrna and the Chinese vaccines as you do

            I found it remarkable that he gave such a calm clear eyed description of the contrasting benefits of the vaccines, given the noise and bluster one is used to from the claphands

            I think I agree that it is useless to attempt to cap this virus, and dangerous to eradicate it entirely, even for a shortish while, and I certainly do not want to think about those mandatory Aussies or those we’ve caught the fish NZ

            But I am sure that China has a plan b, and I wonder what this may be : it is too common a knowledge that containment can only be temporary for them not to have thought of plan b as well as c

            I assume they are waiting until they have vaccinated everything in sight including the poodles and stray cats

            Have you any idea of any alternative which will not so displease the great majority as to cause unrest

            Let’s keep the discussion, if this is agreeable, to Asia and EU– or anywhere bar the US- them’s going round in circles and seem to be pumping up for some sort of civil war, as the chickens come home to roost, well no this time it’s no chickens setting up inside them

    • Gerrard, as always you are welcome to your theories.

      The point of both articles was the vaccines are expected to work, as said explicitly in the WSJ article. Further the WSJ article links to the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines as those already administered (the reason for the article). Note that both are mRNA vaccines.

      https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-vaccines-expected-to-work-on-south-africa-coronavirus-variant-11609963906

      You can form whatever conclusion you wish, but the truth is not affected. You attack others without factual basis and insist on your own version of reality. We saw the outcome of that thought process today in the US capitol.

      You have criticized and objected to each positive outcome of the vaccines, so this is no exception. Your statements have an almost perfect -1 correlation to reality. I suspect that will be true here as well.

      I look forward to the results of the studies. I remain confident that the vaccines will be effective against the emerging variants, with perhaps some loss of efficacy as noted in the articles. That is a reasonable and logical conclusion.

      • @Rob

        The vaccines are not ‘expected’ to work – read the article again – the researcher says ‘thought’ : to repeat a lie does not make it true

        It is not only dishonest it is un necessary to distort and change the language of the report and statements – which, extensively, you did

        Your sole defence is that the WSJ distorted the Reuters article and you went along for the ride?

        Or – Did you not read the Reuters report

        The interview was by Reuters with the researcher – this I quoted – in order to prove that you misquoted

        I presented no theories – the researcher made some suggestions is all

        If you wish to distort the reporting of events both with regard to Boeing and other subjects under discussion here, it is advisable that you should do so elsewhere

        Keep your Civil War to yourself

      • @Rob
        Strike Three

      • Reality will show whether the vaccine is effective against new variants. That is the only thing of substance or importance here. The rest is the typical nonsense.

        You are free to insist you are correct, as you always do. It keeps your narrative alive until it can be formally refuted, as I think it will be. Time will tell, as it has for all your other claims as well.

        • @Rob

          In this case what you call nonsense came from the quotes of the researcher in SA looking into the new strain

          I do not insist I am correct, I point out to you that he can only be correct in his description of what his team has established so far

          You should be careful with your language

          What is of importance here is that you not lie

          • Gerrard, the bottom line is that your messaging here on vaccines and science has been wholly negative and meant to invalidate both. That. by definition is a conspiracy theory, which you pursue without regard to the cost to others.

            We saw yesterday that Trump told his followers that he would join them at the capitol, then went back to the White House so as not to actually participate in the mayhem he incited. He is a coward, which is typical of the purveyors of conspiracy theories.

            Similarly we saw that he ridiculed the COVID science and scientists, but then availed himself of it when he became infected. And then immediately returned to the negative messaging afterwards.

            You are his moral and ethical equivalent here, you use the same methods and tactics, out of the same disregard for others. Note that he accuses the people who tell him the truth about the election, and about the COVID response, of lying. Just as you do here.

            You have been wrong about almost every element of the vaccine rollout. But rather than accept that, you hunt for examples of negative outcomes, so as to justify your position in the face of all evidence to the contrary. Just as Trump hunts for election fraud, and willfully misinterprets the COVID data to support his own selfish view. That is also the definition of confirmation bias.

            A moral and ethical person is looking for a good outcome, and if it doesn’t occur, tries to understand the reasons why, so as to improve in the future. We see no aspects of that in your comments, or in Bryce’s. There is only the hyping of the negative, so as to undermine the possibility of success. What benefit does that create or serve, other than for you to feel you are right?

            Above I posted some good news about the vaccine, but it had to be attacked because you prefer the bad outcome, that there would be a vaccine escape. What person in their right mind would root for that? And what does it say about their character?

            This has to stop. There has been a backlash against social media because it’s been used to promote conspiracy theories, which have caused real harm. These platforms are only a tool, they can be used for good or evil.

            The difference between them is moderation. There will be a lot more of that in future. Trump was finally suspended, and may be banned outright, but that should have happened months ago, there was more than ample cause.

            Scott is the moderator here, so it’s up to him, but with you as with Trump, there has been ample cause. Multiple admonitions, with you retreating each time enough to avoid discipline, but as soon as the coast is clear, you are right back at it again. That combined with the message and purpose, should be enough.

            Scott, you can boot me for saying this if you wish, but it had to be said. There is real damage done by these theories. The message being pushed on vaccines here should not be given a platform. If you don’t want to moderate, then at least ban the theories or the topic so the platform is denied.

            Note that no platform is needed for the pro-vaccine message, reality and the science will take care of that. But the theorists need a platform for the negative messaging, which is otherwise unsupported. That is the core issue with media and conspiracies.

            Yesterday was a visible example of the ultimate impact of a conspiracy theory. With vaccines, the erosion of confidence is not so visible, but no less damaging. Like fatigue or corrosion of an airframe that is not visible until disaster strikes.

          • So, on the basis of the “logic” in the message above, it seems that you consider Dr. Fauci to be a conspiracist, seeing as he robustly criticized the vaccine rollout today…?
            Wow.

            https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/01/06/health/us-coronavirus-wednesday/index.html

17. Vaccine Distribution Disaster – Worser and Worser

    No preparation state or federal – as usual nobody knows nothing

    https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-vaccine-rollout-delays-a1de3fb6-4b13-4c1f-9647-de6d7c1f812c.html

    https://www.axios.com/vaccine-distribution-information-vacuum-fbb15860-5a9c-4751-bcd9-4e7122652aa0.html

    « Driving the news: In Florida, a number of counties are using events platform Eventbrite, a platform known for selling concert tickets and coordinating happy hours, to schedule COVID-19 vaccine appointments. »

    « “It is kind of falling on pharmacies,” says Chris Haynes, a political science professor at the University of New Haven. “There hasn’t been an app developed for federal or state governments to make sure the vaccine rollout was tracked. All of this stuff should’ve been planned months ago.”
    «

    “States have been warning for months that they don’t have the resources to pull off the ideal vaccination effort, but additional federal money only started flowing to states a few days ago, after President Trump signed the coronavirus relief package that Congress has been fighting over since the summer.”

18. Reuters:
    “Boeing will pay $2.5 billion to resolve U.S. criminal probe into 737 MAX crashes”

    https://www.reuters.com/article/BigStory12/idUSKBN29C2ZL