Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
KC-30A for RAAF involved in in-flight incident, refueling boom lost
Australian Aviation has this story about an in-flight incident during a refueling test between the Airbus KC-30A and an F-16. Readers will recall a Boeing KC-767J for Japan Air Defense Services had an incident in which the boom wouldn’t retract for landing and was damaged on the runway, the point being both programs have now suffered incidents.
But the KC-30A incident will likely further delay delivery of the plane to the RAAF; it is already two years late. The timing couldn’t be worse for EADS, with the contract award for the USAF only weeks away.
- Bloomberg News followed with this story.
- FlightGlobal has this story.
- Meanwhile, there is this story that Boeing is taking a pass on bidding for the Indian government tanker contract. A second story says uncertainty over the USAF contract outcome is why. A third story has more detail.
Defence Statement, 20 January 2011 from the RAAF:
Read more
Odds and ends: More Airbus NEO orders soon, engine selections shortly; tanker slips again
Odds and ends:
- More Airbus NEO orders are likely within the next few weeks, including from the US and Asia;
- Indigo is expected to make its engine selection for its A320neo within the next month or so, and it’s a real competition between GE/CFM and PW for the LEAP-X and Geared Turbo Fan;
- A major German bank may shun financing the A320neo, according to Bloomberg;
- Boeing is now saying there is only a 2%-3% direct operating cost difference between the 737NG enhanced model and the A320neo, a gap Boeing figures it can close by the time NEO enters service in 2016;
- Boeing thinks the A350-1000 will require enough changes compared with the -800/900 models that the -1000 will slip to 2019 EIS; Read more
Countdown on KC-X tanker award
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EADS CEO Louis Gallois went public today in Europe with his prediction that the USAF will award a tanker contract next month. The best and final bid will be submitted this month.
We previously noted that the final bids were due this month and a contract award expected next month.
Meanwhile, here is an interesting story on the tanker from KING5 TV in Seattle, with this piece.
As readers know, the competition is a price shoot-out. As the KING story notes, Boeing continues to be worried about the benefit EADS has from subsidies found to be illegal by the WTO on the ability to under-price Boeing, but as we noted in this post last year, WTO may not have the effect Boeing fears; the withdrawal of Northrop Grumman as a partner to EADS has a much larger benefit to EADS’ ability to price the airplane.
Boeing expects solid 777 order stream
Here’s a story we did for Commercial Aviation Online. Comments are still closed. Comments are re-opened but moderated. Read our new Comment policies.
Boeing 777 orders on the cards
| Date: | 11/01/2011 09:42 |
| Source: | Commercial Aviation Online |
| Location: | Seattle |
| By: | Scott Hamilton |
Boeing is likely to have a very good next few months for its 777 line.
CAO has learned that that company is probably going to announce several major orders for the airplane, predominately if not entirely for the 777-300ER. One order is said to be for 20 777-300ERs and could be announced within the next few weeks. As many as four major orders are anticipated in the next few months, CAO is told.
Focus on Rolls-Royce Trent engines
Plane Talking has an interesting think piece about the Rolls-Royce Trent 900 engine that powers the Qantas Airbus A380.
As readers know, a Trent 900 had an uncontained failure on QF32 that severely damaged the A380. Qantas still hasn’t returned the A380 fleet to full service while questions about the Trent 900 remain unresolved.
Rolls-Royce has been uncommunicative to Qantas, and to Airbus, according to both companies, adding difficulties to the recovery of the program.
This portends something that has greater implications.
US helps Boeing–and Europe helps Airbus. So what?
Notice: All right, Everyone, given the persistent personal stuff in the Comments, we have closed Comments for this posting.
Wikileaks struck again with cables revealing US diplomats and the President support Boeing is sales efforts. The cables made a lot of news headlines, with The Seattle Times pickup of a New York Times piece typical.
Our reaction is, So what?
That diplomats help Boeing and European officials help Airbus is nothing new nor surprising to those of us in aviation. Heads-of-State do it, too. It happened for McDonnell Douglas, with a sale for MD-11s and MD-90s to Saudi Arabia. Happened with Israel and Boeing. Landing slots for Airbus sales? No surprise here, either.
Much ado about nothing, in our view.
Looking ahead for the tanker award
Will it ever end?
This is the question about the interminable KC-X tanker competition.
Unofficial word is now that the USAF is to announce its award in February, after slipping from January, December, November, October and August.
US Sen. Carl Levin announced that he will hold a hearing by February. 1 into the snafu by the USAF over sending Boeing and EADS information about the performance of each other’s tanker. Levin, holding the hearing at the request of Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Boeing/WA), will try and determine if this is a harmless or fatal error to the procurement process. We have written before that mistakes like this happen and the government has set procedures for handling such errors, but in the highly charged competition, Boeing is taking advantage of the mistake to lay the groundwork for a protest should it lose.
Senate hearing in tanker snafu appropriate
US Sen. Carl Levin announced yesterday that he will hold a hearing by Feb. 1 into the snafu by the USAF over sending Boeing and EADS information about each other’s KC-X tanker submission.
We think this is appropriate, as we have written before. The Air Force and EADS must come forward with a detailed timeline and information about the what-when-where-why about this. So that there is a full airing, so does Boeing, though let’s be clear: the burden here appears to be on the USAF and EADS.
Odds and ends: Airbus/EADS and Boeing
With Christmas around the corner, here are some year-end thoughts, absent any breaking news of some kind in the week ahead:
737 upgrade: Southwest Airlines continues to pressure Boeing to do something about a more fuel efficient airplane, and there has been some recent buzz when Flightblogger published a picture of a 737 re-engine concept, but we believe the re-engine has been shelved for now–more likely in favor of the 737NG+. Work continues on the Boeing NLT (New Light Twin.)
787 flight tests: It’s been widely suggested by observers and analysts flight tests will resume in January; we understand Boeing is working toward resuming them after Christmas (to clarify for the cynics and comics, this means Christmas 2010 and before New Year’s 2011). P100 panel, software fixes proceeding faster than expected–but will FAA sign off when Boeing desires? An announcement is expected, in Boeing tradition, on the eve of a holiday.