Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Boeing’s Orberg: Striving for parity with Airbus deliveries
- Traveled work, rework are still obstacles
- 777X certification running late; customers now see first deliveries in 4Q2026
By Karl Sinclair
Sept. 17, 2025, © Leeham News: “We were almost at parity on deliveries with Airbuses last month…. We’re getting there.”
Kelly Ortberg, the CEO of The Boeing Co. Credit: Boeing.
That was the opening salvo from The Boeing Company (BA) and CEO Kelly Ortberg, as it begins to claw its way back from the depths after a difficult six-year stretch.
Speaking at the Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference, Ortberg closed his interview by remarking on how close Boeing was getting to delivering aircraft at levels only recently seen by Airbus.
“I feel really good one year in that my plan is working, that we put together. People are getting excited. Customers are feeling better,” he said.
However, the deliveries comparison with Airbus isn’t precisely an even match. Boeing has finally cleared its inventory of 737 MAXes, a six-year task from when the MAX was grounded for 21 months beginning in March 2019 and extending through the extended recovery period of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Airbus, meanwhile, has about 60 A320neo family airplanes in storage awaiting engines from CFM International and Pratt & Whitney. Based on production rates, Airbus has a 60% share vs Boeing’s 40%.
How’s the next new aircraft produced? Part 4. Boeing: new aircraft production
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By the Leeham News Team
Sept. 15, 2025, © Leeham News: In the fourth part of our article series about the Production of the next new aircraft, we look at what changes Boeing needs to do to produce the next new aircraft we described in our series What’s the next new aircraft.
Boeing 737s awaiting delivery, November 2022. Credit: Leeham News.
The new small widebody described in the series and a replacement for the 737 MAX will be an all-composite aircraft. For these products, new, cheaper, and faster composite production technology is needed.
The present widebody composite methods are not made for high-rate, low-cost aircraft, as Boeing found out lately with the NMA, which was canceled, not least because of the high-cost composite methods used.
How’s the next new aircraft produced? Part 3. Boeing: Improving the present.
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By the Leeham News Team
Sept. 11, 2025, © Leeham News: In the third part of our article series about the Production of the next new aircraft, we look at where Boeing is with the present production and how this can develop in preparation for a next-generation aircraft.
Several of Boeing’s production sites have their roots in World War II factories making Bombers for the war effort. Each has built new production lines and modernized them over time.
Figure 1. Boeing 737 factory in Renton (WA). Credit: Boeing.
Boeing has fallen well behind Airbus in commercial aircraft narrowbody sales over the last decade. Poor strategic and tactical decisions, emphasis on shareholder value vs product strategy, poor execution on new commercial, defense, and space programs, and a series of safety crises with its 737 and 787 programs also took tolls, according to many observers, including Richard Aboulafia and Kevin Michaels of Aerodynamic Advisory, and aerospace analyst Ron Epstein of Bank of America.
Boeing has less than 40% market share in the dominant single aisle market, more than $50bn in debt, it’s losing money, and has an aging product line.
For Boeing, a drastic makeover in its aircraft programs, from concept to design to production, is key to its financial and market turnaround.
The Rise and Fall of Boeing, And The Way Back
By Scott Hamilton
Sept. 10, 2025, © Leeham News: The sequel to my book Air Wars, The Global Combat Between Airbus and Boeing, published today on Amazon (US and selected international markets, including France, the UK, Germany, Japan and elsewhere).
The Rise and Fall of Boeing And The Way Back recounts Boeing’s rise to dominance over the piston airliner era of Douglas Aircraft Co. and Lockheed as the modern jet age began in 1958. Boeing captured more than 60% of the market against Douglas and its corporate successor, the McDonnell Douglas Corp. (MDC). Europe’s upstart, Airbus Industries overtook MDC and in the 2000 decade it passed Boeing to become the Number 1 supplier in the world of commercial jetliners.
How’s the next new aircraft produced? Part 2. Advancing the State of the Art
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By the Leeham News Team
Sept. 8, 2025, © Leeham News: In the second part of our article series about the Production of the next new aircraft, we look at the latest trends around advancing the state of the art for aircraft production.
Figure 1. The next new airplane, whether from Airbus, Boeing, Embraer or another company, will use AI and other new technologies. Credit: Leeham Co.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is going to replace human beings, or so claims Elon Musk.
Digital design and digital twin factories are going to dramatically lower costs, speed construction, and improve production efficiency. At least that’s what proponents claim.
While there might be a lot of truth in these claims, it’s not the whole story.
But the drive toward reindustrialization, as one industry consultant calls it, may be a drive that is too theoretical and could overlook the fact that production is done and controlled by humans.
One aerospace company is putting the brakes on the theoretical spin and focusing on the road to higher efficiency by slowing down this transformation in favor of employee training and motivation to emphasize safety over cost-cutting and automation to gain efficiency.
Striking a balance between the reindustrialization theoretical gains and the focus on the human in the system will be tricky. LNA had spent months interviewing companies, consultants, current and former employees of key companies, and researching public-domain information to paint a picture of how production will be transformed in the coming years.
We begin the advancement of the state-of-the-art part of the series with an interview LNA did at the Paris Air Show with the consulting firm Accenture.
How’s the next new aircraft produced? Part 1. The starting point.
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By the Leeham News Team
Sept. 4, 2025, © Leeham News: The coming decade is likely to see announcements of new airplanes from Airbus and Boeing. If Embraer decides to move up into the mainline sector, a new airplane from the Brazilian manufacturer should also be announced in the next few years.
This means the clock is ticking toward program launches anywhere between 2027 and 2030, depending on progress from GE Aerospace, Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce in developing new engines.
New airplane concept: The Boeing New Midmarket Airplane, c. 2019. Credit: Leeham News.
For the airframe manufacturers, there are important steps before a new program can be launched. One is how the aircraft shall be developed. We wrote about it in our series “What’s the Next New Aircraft?”. But equally important is, how shall the next new aircraft be produced? It’s what this seven part series is about.
Since June, LNA has published a series of articles about new airplanes, new technologies, new design and new production processes that must be sorted before any of the OEMs move forward. Across the seven parts of this series, we identify flaws and challenges at both Airbus and Boeing, with lessons to be learned as both airframers reshape their approach for future manufacturing.
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We call this series “How’s the next new aircraft produced?”. We start by going through where the major OEMs are with their legacy production.
Trump tariffs beginning to hurt US aerospace companies; EU competitors to benefit
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By Scott Hamilton and Karl Sinclair
Sept. 1, 2025, © Leeham News: New policies by President Donald Trump in the first six months of his second administration in trade, with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union (EU) are causing a what may become a significant shift in defense spending that will benefit European companies.
The added business could strengthen those that also participate in commercial aerospace, to the detriment of US companies, notably Airbus.
US companies that for decades were the major suppliers to allies are already beginning to see European countries redirect spending to EU firms. Following Trump’s imposition of high tariffs on certain EU countries and others on Aug. 1, US defense companies have been hurt. India canceled deliveries of Boeing 737-based P-8A Poseidons.
Figure 1. Boeing P-8, based on the commercial 737 NG. India suspended delivery of the P8 due to the Trump tariffs. Credit: Boeing. Airbus now proposes a rival airplane based on the A321.
Airbus, Rolls-Royce, MTU, and others expect to benefit from these changes. And, as these companies see more defense work coming their way, then—at least in theory—their commercial business will benefit from stronger balance sheets, profits, cash flow, and perhaps the corporations’ technology.
In an interview at the Paris Air Show in June, the consulting firm Accenture told LNA that it is beginning to see key trends and increases in the defense sector.
Figure 2. Spain and Switzerland canceled orders for the Lockheed F-35. Credit: Lockheed. Airbus stands to benefit, among other EU-based defense contractors.
“Obviously, things are changing in terms of the dynamics,” said Jeff Wheless, Growth & Strategy Research Leader at Accenture. “I think certainly from a NATO perspective, I think folks are increasing their spending.”
Mark Rutte, the NATO secretary general, said that Trump’s pressure on NATO countries to increase defense spending to 5% of their budgets paid off. For decades, NATO countries were committed to a 2% spending level, but often failed to meet this commitment.
“Europe is spending by far less money on defense acquisitions than the US,” said Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury in response to an LNA question at the Paris Air Show. “It’s a ratio of one to four or one to five. On top of that, Europe is procuring a lot from the US. I think the message is loud and clear from the U.S. that Europe should take better care of its own security.”
Airbus’ A330neo gets better and better. Part 4
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By Bjorn Fehrm
August 28, 2025, © Leeham News: We analyze Airbus’s A330neo, how the different variants were developed, their sales, and their performance before and after the neo upgrade.
After examining the history of the A330-200 and its evolution into a neo version, the A330-800, we now assess its performance. We utilize our Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM) to compare the performance of the A330-800 to Boeing’s smallest Dreamliner, the 787-8.
Figure 1. The A330-800, the very long-range A330. Source: Airbus.
Summary:
- The Airbus A330-800 is an aircraft for especially demanding routes. It’s the only 8,000nm airliner in the 250-seat class.
- Our 787-8 comparison shows where the A330-800 has its advantage, on the world’s longest routes.
China, Boeing appear near massive order: report
By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 21, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing is nearing a massive order for up to 500 aircraft with China, Bloomberg reports. Completing the deal depends on political considerations, as so many of these do between China and the US for Boeing or Europe for Airbus airplanes.
Air China is the primary state airline of China. Boeing 737 MAX. Credit: CNBC.
But it’s significant that negotiations are active and appear nearing a deal if the politics can be worked out between the Chinese government and the Trump Administration. Boeing was frozen out by Beijing in 2017 when President Donald Trump, in his first term, began imposing tariffs on China in 2017.
President Biden, who took office in 2021, not only kept the Trump tariffs in place, economic and industrial sanctions were imposed when China covertly aligned itself with Russia following its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. When Trump was reelected in 2024, one of his first actions the following year was to impose more tariffs on China.
Even if the Boeing deal doesn’t successfully conclude soon, the very fact that serious negotiations and a near-deal validate LNA’s thesis since
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LNA’s analysis over the years concluded that China’s home-grown COMAC C919 could not fill the gap for the domestic demand for new airliners in the coming years created with the 2019 21-month grounding of the Boeing 737 MAX. China was the first to ground the aircraft after two fatal crashes of the MAX five months apart in 2018 and 2019. It was the last to un-ground the MAX after the Federal Aviation Administration recertified the airplane in November 2021.
Boeing starts the 787 production expansion in Charleston
By Bjorn Fehrm
August 18, 2025, © Leeham News: In our July 16 Article “ Boeing ponders 16/mo production rate for 787,” we concluded that Boeing needed to expand its present 787 plant in Charleston, South Carolina, to reach a rate of 16 Dreamliners per month before the end of the decade.
The Charleston Post and Courier reported on August 9th that Boeing has started the $1 billion expansion of the Charleston site. The article presents a Boeing rendering of the expanded site with the planned new buildings.
Figure 1 shows the rendering where we have marked the added buildings and site expansion.
Figure 1. The Boeing 787 production site south of the Charleston International Airport. Source: Boeing.
The new FAL building is essentially a copy of the present FAL, doubling the final assembly line capacity for the 787. Boeing has reached rate seven and plans to be at rate 10 per month next year.
The expansion is planned to be finished in 2028, after which Boeing will have the facilities to reach a rate of 16 787 per month.