Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
787 deliveries for 2011 shrinking
Boeing is likely to deliver only a handful of 787s this year instead of the 12-20 forecast on the year-end and first quarter earnings calls, say sources with direct knowledge of the situation.
Deliveries could be as few as three and perhaps five, according to these sources. Boeing’s internal forecast is 8-9, and this appears to be the guidance Boeing is preparing to discuss on next week’s earnings calls, but the consensus of those we’ve talked to say three to five.
Wall Street aerospace analysts have listed a range of anticipated deliveries from 7-16, and all expectations are high. Rework for non-conforming issues and results from flight tests are the reasons for the lower delivery number, whatever it turns out to be.
Boeing guidance on 747-8 deliveries for the year is expected to be about 14, within the 12-20 range previously expressed. Sources are saying deliveries could be as few as five.
Countdown to 737RE or NSA: Odds now favor Re-engine
It’s been a slow but steady shift in Boeing’s thinking that became evident during the pre-Paris Air Show briefings: Boeing is warming to the idea of re-engining the 737. According to sources with direct knowledge of the situation, it is likely officials will choose to do so and push out development of the New Small Airplane (NSA), with an EIS for the latter in the early half of the 2020 decade instead of 2019 or 2020 that Boeing has been talking about.
McCain puts Boeing, USAF in his sights for $1bn overrun on four tankers
Well, it’s started. See McCain’s letter to the Department of Defense here.
Market sees 737 sales lagging, but matches 2010–so far
Here is a story we did for Commercial Aviation Online.
| Date: | 12/07/2011 11:40 |
| Source: | Commercial Aviation Online |
| Location: | Seattle |
| By: | Scott Hamilton |
Boeing took a drubbing in the headlines from the Paris Air Show as Airbus racked up more than 600 orders for its A320neo family while there were few announcements for the rival 737.
Many of the neo orders and some of the 737 orders have yet to be converted to firm contracts, largely a formality, but through June, Airbus is ahead of Boeing in this market segment. Boeing reported 141 gross orders and 104 net orders for the 737. Airbus reports 706 gross orders and 618 net orders for its A320 family.
A321neo best to replace 757: AirInsight
AirInsight today published a short report comparing the Boeing 737-900ER with the Airbus A321neo and concluded the neo is the best choice to replace the Boeing 757.
See the AirInsight synopsis here.
The report is particularly timely with the pending American Airlines decision we’ve all read so much about.
How will Boeing profit from tanker contract?
Just whenever you think there’s nothing more to write about the air force aerial tanker, more news pops up.
The news that Boeing would first lose $300m on the initial KC-46A tanker contract, and now perhaps another $400m (will there be still more to come?), isn’t particularly surprising.This is on top of the $600m the USAF (read that “taxpayers” agreed to absorb of the first $1bn in excess program costs.
In fact, when the first loss projection was announced, Wall Street aerospace analysts noted the news but shrugged it off as falling under the “what did you expect?” category. We didn’t even both to write about it, except in passing.
Countdown at American for huge order
American Airlines is believed ready to decide on replacing as many as 250 narrow-bodies in its fleet as early as this week.
The Wall Street Journal published this report Sunday outlining the stakes.
We suggested recently that AA could split the order, sticking with Boeing for the 737-800 to replace more than 200 aging MD-80s; and the Airbus A321neo to replace the more than 100 Boeing 757s.
The competition is a tough one, as The WSJ article details. As for the aircraft, we’re not sure adding A320 Legacy airplanes to the fleet in place of the 737-800, in and of itself, makes a lot of sense unless (1) American needs more airplanes quicker than Boeing can provide to replace the gas-guzzling MD-80s and (2) it’s tied to a deal for the A320/321 neo.
AirInsight will publish a report Tuesday (July 12) examining the economics of which airplane best replaces American’s 757s: the 737-900ER or the A321neo.