Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing unlikely to meet FAA’s 90-day deadline for new safety program April 18, 2024
- Focus on quality not slowing innovation, says GKN April 18, 2024
- Boeing defends 787, 777 against whistleblower charges April 17, 2024
- Dissecting Boeing CEO’s statement next new airplane will cost $50bn April 15, 2024
- Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 3. Propulsive efficiency April 12, 2024
Boeing: 787 fire caused by FOD, design changes coming, no word on delay
Boeing issued this press release at 3pm PST Nov. 24:
Boeing Initiates Changes to 787 Power Panel, Updates to Software
EVERETT, Wash., Nov. 24, 2010 – Boeing [NYSE: BA] is developing minor design changes to power distribution panels on the 787 and updates to the systems software that manages and protects power distribution on the airplane. These changes come as the result of what has been learned from the investigation of an onboard electrical fire on a test airplane, ZA002, earlier this month in Laredo, Texas.
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Snapshot: EADS press conference, mainly on Tanker and USAF faux pas
We attended a press conference today in Washington (DC) with Sean O’Keefe, CEO of EADS North America, that covered a variety of issues but focused mainly on the KC-X tanker competition and most particularly the news last week that the USAF had sent proprietary information about the Boeing and EADS tanker bids to the wrong company.
First, O’Keefe remains in the neck collar from his near-fatal airplane accident in Alaska August 9 in which former Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK) and three others were killed. Sean and his teenage son, Kevin, were about five survivors. O’Keefe’s spirits are good and he expressed that the random nature of those killed and who survived is proof that divine intervention is “real.”
Having interviewed O’Keefe on previous occasions, we are gratified to see his recovery progressing and him back at work.
Here is a quick snaphshot of O’Keefe’s remarks:
How many ways can the USAF screw up KC-X?
Defense News has this story about the USAF sending Boeing and EADS proprietary information about each company’s bids to the other by mistake.
How else can the government screw this competition up?
If you read the post carefully, the USAF also acknowledges for the first time what we have been saying for quite a while: the award will slip to early next year.
Update: It gets worse. Dominic Gates of The Seattle Times said the information including pricing data from each company, which is key in what is a price shoot-out competition.
This could have serious ramifications.
Our 787 forecast: 4-6 month delay
Update Nov. 22: Bloomberg News has this report detailing the source of the FOD.
Original Post:
It’s become a worldwide sport, trying to forecast how long the widely expected delay from the in-flight fire of Boeing 787 ZA002 will be.
Morgan Stanley predicts the first delivery of the 787 to All Nippon will slip from February to 2012. This is the most dire prediction.
Here’s ours, and this has several elements to it. Everything that follows is based on numerous conversations with many sources who have knowledge of events.
54 failures on QF A380
The Associated Press, via this story in The Seattle Times, details the in-flight emergency of the Qantas A380 after the No. 2 engine suffered an uncontained failure.
The account is very dramatic, particularly when the as-yet untold story of the Boeing 787 ZA002 is considered.
Qantas recorded 54 failures, including the near-deployment of the Ram Air Turbine (RAT) that does so only when there is a major system failure. The RAT, as we know, deployed on the 787.
737RE? Forgettaboutit
In what is, perhaps, the clearest signal Boeing isn’t going to re-engine the 737, and that it will take on the Airbus A320NEO head-on with an upgraded model, take a look at the last line of the AerCap press release announcing the signing of a letter of intent to order the 737-800–the first new-airplane order from Boeing from this previously all-Airbus new order customer:
Boeing repositions two 787s, probe continues
Update, Nov. 17, 4:30PM PST:
This article from Europe talks about efforts by Safran group to acquire Zodiac, which is a supplier on the Boeing 787. The article refers to possible interest (or lack of it, actually) by Hamilton Sundstrand as a potential bidder for Zodiac and that Zodiac is a competitor to Sundstrand.
As it happens, a company called ECE is subcontracted by Sundstrand on the P100 control panel on the 787, where the fire originated on ZA002. ECE is a subsidiary of–Zodiac.
Update, Nov. 17, 9:00 AM PST:
Heidi Wood, the aerospace analyst at Morgan Stanley, issued this brief note today:
What’s new: Yesterday, Boeing issued a press release update on the 787 highlighting the ongoing investigation into the test flight fire incident. While test plane ZA002 remains in Texas, 2 other 787s (ZA001 & ZA005) have returned to Seattle until a resolution can be determined.
What Does This Mean? Our read-between-the-lines interpretation of the press release:
(1)Boeing: “Boeing has established a plan to fly two aircraft back to Seattle.” “No decision has been reached on when flight testing will resume.”
Translation: The other planes (may) have an issue too. Which suggests 2 things: 1) it’s unlikely flight tests will resume shortly (days, a week), 2) bringing test planes back means it’s not de facto a quick fix. We estimate flight test resumption in late December, early 2011.
(2)Boeing: “The incident demonstrated many aspects of the safety and redundancy in the 787 design, which ensure that if events such as these occur, the airplane can continue safe flight and landing”.
Translation: The vagueness alerts us, as it sidesteps claiming the systems all worked. This tells us the multiple redundancies may not have performed as they should have, which dovetails with what our sources have been asserting. We’re impressed by the honest admission; we believe this is an FAA chief concern.
(3)Boeing: “We must complete the investigation and assess whether any design changes are necessary.”
Translation: Design changes are necessary. Questions arising about software, hardware redesign extend the horizon & could push first delivery to 2012.
(4)Boeing: “Until that time, BA cannot comment on the potential impact…on the…program schedule.”
Translation: Delay ahead. They just don’t know how extensive yet to set a new, credible target. When they do, they’ll officially announce the next delay.
Original Post:
Boeing just issued this update on the 787 program:
EVERETT, Wash., Nov. 16, 2010 – While the investigation into the incident onboard 787 Dreamliner ZA002 continues, Boeing has established a plan to fly two other aircraft, ZA001 and ZA005, back to Seattle from Rapid City, S.D., and Victorville, Calif. The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration has reviewed and approved the plans.
ZA001 was undergoing refueling in South Dakota when the incident on ZA002 occurred and the company decided to forgo additional flights. ZA005 was on remote deployment for testing in California.
Tanker shortage cancels Red Flag exercise
Update, Nov. 17: EADS now is predicting the tanker contract award will slip to next year. This is entirely consistent with what we have been hearing (first quarter) and what we understand Boeing believes as well.
Original Post:
A shortage of KC-135 refueling tankers, because of the high demand in Afghanistan and Iraq, forced the Air Force to cancel Red Flag, an annual exercise.
The Army Times first reported this event November 9. Strategy Page has an analysis about the aging tanker issue.
Strategy Page has a couple of obvious errors in its analysis, but the overarching point is well taken.
This illustrates the need for aerial tankers and how warfighting capability can be affected by a shortage of tankers. While the exercise was not canceled due to aging tankers, but rather competing interests, the point is nonetheless made.
Updates on Airbus, Boeing events
Aviation Week has this long and detailed story about the Airbus A380/Qantas engine failure.
Qantas A380s remain grounded indefinitely.
KING 5 (NBC, Seattle) has this account of the Boeing 787 fire.
KIRO TV (CBS, Seattle) has this item about the FAA and the 787’s certification tests.
Flightglobal reports an FAA pilot was at the controls when the 787 fire broke out.
Airbus has its challenges, too
While headlines have understandably been focused on Boeing this week, Airbus has its problems, too. The Qantas A380 Rolls-Royce Trent 900 engine uncontained failure continues to generate news stories. The QF 32 flight details still are emerging, and one–in an email we received today–gives a good example of “cascading failures” that can happen in an emergency.
Recall that the 787 ZA002 had a series of cascading failures following the fire in the electronics bay, the details of which have yet to be learned beyond some generalities. Here’s what we learned about the cascading failures associated with QF 32: