Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 4. Propulsive efficiency April 19, 2024
- Boeing unlikely to meet FAA’s 90-day deadline for new safety program April 18, 2024
- Focus on quality not slowing innovation, says GKN April 18, 2024
- Boeing defends 787, 777 against whistleblower charges April 17, 2024
- Dissecting Boeing CEO’s statement next new airplane will cost $50bn April 15, 2024
Boeing’s next 787 announcements
Update, Dec. 9: As a Commenter noted below, a French newspaper is reporting Boeing told Air France the first delivery of the 787 may be June or July. This falls within the 4-6 month delay we forecast on November 19. Several aerospace analysts since then have also forecast 4-6 months, with some a little shorter and some a little longer.
With 145 votes tallied to this Update in the First Delivery poll below, 17 (11.72%) predict first delivery will be in the second quarter; 28 (19.31%) say the third quarter, 46 (31.72%) say the fourth quarter and 44 (30.34%) say in 2012.
We think the test flights are most likely to resume in January. With 140 votes tallied to the Update, 12 votes (8.57%) say December, 57 (40.71%) say January and 68 (48.57%) say later in 2011.
And if there isn’t enough to consider, throw this into the hopper: Bloomberg reports the US will consider a patent infringement case filed by Pratt & Whitney against Rolls-Royce over, among other engines, the Trent 1000 powering the 787. PW asked that imports of the Trent 1000 be stopped until the infringement case is concluded, a process which could take 15 months.
We think blocking imports for the 787 won’t happen, but that’s what’s been asked.
With this new information, continue to vote–we’ll see if this sways opinion.
Original Post:
Stakeholders in the Boeing 787 program are naturally curious about the delay to the first delivery of the 787, the rescheduling of downstream deliveries to customers and resumption of flight tests.
But a cottage industry of speculation has arisen about when Boeing will make the announcements. Jon Ostrower of Flightblogger has written that Boeing seems to like to make delay announcements on or near holidays or big events when the news cycles are low or preoccupied with other matters. We’ve noticed the same thing–the most recent announcement was on Thanksgiving Eve, for example–and some Wall Street analysts we’ve talked to likewise expect the next announcement (or series of them) to be around the Christmas and/or New Year’s Holidays.
So in the spirit of having some fun, we’ve created some polls on the topics. What do readers think?
EADS will likely win tanker, says Boeing consultant
Update, Dec. 9, 5:00 AM PST:
Politico has this profile on Loren Thompson.
Flight Global reports Brazil may select the KC-45 to replace its Boeing KC-137 (KC-135).
Update, 5:00 PM PST: Dominic Gates now has his story on this topic here.
Original Post:
George Talbot of The Mobile Press Register posted this story today in which Loren Thompson, an aerospace defense analyst who has done work for Boeing, says Boeing has concluded EADS is going to win the KC-X tanker competition.
In Talbot’s article, Thompson once again advances the Boeing line about WTO and Airbus’ illegal subsidies as evidence of a USAF “bias toward EADS.”
There is just one problem with this line of allegation with respect to the WTO issue:
US law doesn’t allow the USAF to take the WTO panel finding into account, and Thompson, Boeing and its Congressional supporters know it.
USAF, EADS need to come forward with full details
The USAF and EADS need to come forward with full details to fully explain the latest cock-up (a British term, not an obscene one) in which the Air Force mistakenly sent EADS and Boeing proprietary information about the other company’s KC-X submission.
EADS, the Air Force and Boeing say that when EADS and Boeing discovered the error, the companies began a procedure that has been in place for years to seal up the files and computers and to notify the USAF of the error. The Air Force initially said, in essence, “no harm, no foul.” But then in classic Wikileaks fashion, information dribbled out bit-by-bit that there was more to the story than the Air Force–and EADS–let on.
At a press conference–which we were at–EADS North America CEO Sean O’Keefe gave a detailed response to questions about the matter. But within days, it was charged by Lexington Institute’s Loren Thompson that EADS had actually opened the proprietary file but Boeing had not. He did not cite sources for his information, and his close ties to Boeing immediately raised the suspicion that Boeing leaked this information to him.
It’s official: A320 NEO launched, 2016 EIS
Update, December 1, 0530 PST:
Aviation Week has an interesting piece on what will Boeing do.
Original Post:
Here is the Airbus press release:
Airbus has decided to offer for its best-selling A320 Family new fuel saving engines as an option. Airlines have the choice between CFM International’s LEAP-X engine and Pratt & Whitney’s PurePower PW1100G engine. Known as the A320neo, this new engine option also incorporates fuel-saving large wing tip devices called Sharklets. Airbus will start deliveries of the A320neo Family in spring 2016.
Airbus to green light NEO
Update: AirInsight has a couple of posts assessing the impact of NEO.
Bloomberg News just moved this story:
Airbus Said to Plan New A320 Engine Option to Fend Off Rivals
2010-11-30 20:50:43.24 GMT
By Andrea Rothman
Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) — Airbus SAS plans to offer its A320 series of aircraft with an option of more fuel-efficient engines to help defend its position in the single-aisle jet market, said a person familiar with the decision.
The company received backing from parent European Aeronautic, Defense & Space Co. at a meeting today and may announce the decision as early as tomorrow, said the person, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the plan has not yet been made public. Airbus, based in Toulouse, France, would offer the A320 with two new engine options, the person said.
Read more
Laying the groundwork for a Boeing appeal on KC-X
Update, Dec. 1: George Talbot of The Mobile Press-Register has this interesting interview with Michael Wynne, a former top defense department procurement official, who suggests a solution to the KC-X quandary.
Also, at 12:50pm PST: Bloomberg has this story with Boeing BDS CEO Dennis Muilenberg weighing in. It seems the USAF has more ‘splainin’ to do.
Update, Nov. 30, 8PM PST: The New York Times confirms EADS opened Boeing data, Boeing did not; Boeing threatens protest.
Dominic Gates at The Seattle Times has this report.
Original Post:
In what is a wholly transparent move, Boeing is beginning to lay the groundwork for an appeal in the event EADS wins the KC-X contract.
Loren Thompson of the Lexington Institute, published a commentary yesterday (we only saw it today) entitled “Tanker flap reflects pattern of bias.” In it he makes several allegations, the most serious of which is that EADS read the proprietary document mistakenly sent by the USAF to EADS about Boeing performance data of the KC-767 but Boeing did not read the EADS document and data sent to Boeing by USAF. Thompson does not disclose how he knows this.
Five reasons for Airbus to proceed with the A320 NEO
Richard Aboulafia, aerospace consultant with The Teal Group, published his monthly two-page newsletter in which he gives five reasons why Airbus should proceed with the A320 New Engine Option (NEO). The newsletter may be downloaded here.
We disagree with one of his conclusions, and that is Delta Air Lines continues to be predisposed toward Boeing. This was certainly true under the previous management (the pre-bankruptcy one) and stems from an exclusive supplier agreement between Delta and Boeing signed c. 1996 and good for 20 years. Boeing agreed not to enforce the contract as a concession to the European Union for approval the following year to merge with McDonnell Douglas, but Delta only ordered Boeing aircraft anyway.