Leeham News and Analysis
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What’s the next new aircraft, Part 5
By Scott Hamilton and Bjorn Fehrm
July 31, 2025, © Leeham News: We wrap up our five-part series today on What’s the Next New Airplane in the coming decades. We now look at Airplanes 9-13 in Figure 1 below.
Figure 1. The 13 airliners we look at in the series. Source: Leeham Co.
These are the (9) COMAC 929, (10) Eco-version of New Light Twin, (11) CFM Open Fan single aisle, (12) the Boeing 787 re-engine, and (13) the Airbus A350 re-engine.
What’s the next new aircraft, Part 4
By Bjorn Fehrm
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July 28, 2025, © Leeham News: In Part 4 of our five-part series on examining the potential next generation of aircraft in the coming decades, we take a closer look at Aircraft 5 to 8 in our Figure 1.
Figure 1. The 13 airliners we look at in the series. Source: Leeham Co.
These are the (5) GE, NASA, and Boeing hybrid airliner, (6) Airbus ZEROe hydrogen airliner, (7) Boeing’s NMA, and (8) the Boeing New Light Twin.
We examine the market for these aircraft, their technological challenges, and their potential future.
What’s the next new aircraft? Part 3
By Scott Hamilton and Bjorn Fehrm
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July 24, 2025, © Leeham News: In Part 3 of our five-part series on examining the potential next generation of aircraft in the coming decades, we take a closer look at Aircraft projects 1 to 4 in our Figure 1.
Figure 1. The 13 airliner ideas we look at in the series. Source: Leeham Co.
These are the (1) A220-500, (2) Boeing’s Transonic Truss Brace Wing (TTBW), (3) Boom’s Overture Super Sonic Transport (SST), and (4) the Blended Wing Body (BWB) aircraft suggested by leading proponent Jet Zero.
What’s the next new aircraft, Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
July 21, 2025, © Leeham News: Our series about “What’s the next new aircraft” was introduced last week, where we look at what potential new aircraft could be introduced over the following decades, and what technologies these would use.
In Part 2 of the five-part series, we introduce some basics around aircraft efficiency and examine what areas these 13 new aircraft aim to improve to enhance their efficiency.
In the following Parts, we will look into these aircraft in more detail and write about how challenging it will be to develop and mature the needed technologies.
Figure 1. The 13 new aircraft concepts that we study. Source: Leeham Co.
What’s the next new aircraft? Part 1
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Part 1 of 5
By Scott Hamilton
July 17, 2025, © Leeham News: Some urge Boeing to take the plunge “now” to launch a new airplane program.
Institutional knowledge is slipping away, these people say. Boeing hasn’t launched a new airplane since December 2003 (the 787), they note. The 737 MAX is selling at a poor second to the Airbus A320neo family. Boeing continues to lose market share.
This illustrates the variety of aircraft being discussed for the next decade or more. Boeing already decided to nix the Transonic Truss Brace Wing aircraft (#2). Credit: Leeham News.
On the other hand, Airbus is in no hurry to launch a new airplane program—or so it says. It can’t keep up with current demand.
Beginning today, LNA will take a five-part look at what the potential new airplanes and/or airplane technologies are for the coming decade or more. Having recently attended the Paris Air Show, we have the latest to supplement our years of study in this arena.
We look at 13 airplanes and concepts (we don’t examine eVTOLs and pure-battery-powered aircraft). These are numbered for identification—not for any ranking of likelihood of proceeding to a real program.
Today’s Part 1 identifies and describes the 13 aircraft.
At long last, Boeing appears near certification and EIS for 777X
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By Scott Hamilton
July 14, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing is still months away from receiving certification of its newest, largest jet—the 777-9—and the company didn’t bring one of the test airplanes to the Paris Air Show last month. However, officials showcased the passenger and freighter models in an experience center during the major international event.
Justin Hale has the imposing title of Customer Leader & Senior Product Marketing Director for 777X and Production Freighter aircraft
The 777X comes in three models: the 465-seat 777-9; the 777-8F cargo airplane; and the 777-8 passenger model, which is an ultra-long-range (ULR) aircraft. The program was launched in 2013 at the Dubai Air Show (even though the first order, from Lufthansa Airlines, was placed earlier). Entry into service (EIS) was planned for the first quarter of 2020 with an unofficial goal of December 2019.
Flight testing revealed some technical issues with the 115,000 lb thrust GE9X engines. These required engine removal and return to GE Aerospace for redesign, delaying the program by nine months. Further flight testing revealed some uncommanded nose-down flight anomalies, requiring software redesign.
Then two fatal crashes of the Boeing 737 MAX in October 2018 and March 2019 revealed design and certification problems with the MAX. Scrutiny by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) of the MAX program expanded to include a comprehensive review of the work done up to that point on the 777X. The COVID pandemic further stalled flight testing and certification work. The engine-mounted thrust links developed cracks during further flight testing, adding to the delays.
Now, Boeing sees the program is finally on track for certification this year and EIS next year.
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Embraer E2: Where will the orders come from?
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By Karl Sinclair
July 10, 2025, © Leeham News: At a subdued Paris Air Show, Brazilian aircraft manufacturer Embraer announced a firm order from US regional carrier SkyWest Airlines for 60 E175-E1 commercial aircraft, with purchase rights adding 50 planes to the order.
Embraer won a big order from SkyWest Airlines during the Paris Air Show. The E175-E1 is the mainstay of the carrier’s fleet. Credit: Embraer.
This brings the total SkyWest backlog to 74 aircraft, for a total backlog of 220 E1 jets for the variant; 211 of those aircraft are for American carriers.
While the recent SkyWest order is undoubtedly welcome news, the problem is that the rest of the commercial aircraft division is selling and producing the follow-on variant, the Embraer E2 line.
The smallest variant of the E2 family, the E-175 E2, was placed on hold by the company until 2027-2028. This was due to the inability of American carriers to utilize the aircraft in service, resulting from the Scope Clauses with the various pilots’ unions. SkyWest once had a conditional order for 100 E175-E2s. The condition was that the unions would alter the Scope Clause restriction on the aircraft’s weight. The E2 exceeds the allowed weight by a few thousand pounds. The E1 complies.
Scope caps the maximum takeoff weight of an aircraft at 86,000 lbs, or 76 seats. The heavier and more fuel-efficient Pratt & Whitney geared-turbofan engines powering the type put the variant out of reach of US operators.
The commercial aviation industry is undergoing a transformation.
Carriers are opting for larger variants in a segment, as evidenced by the shift in orders at Airbus, away from the A320 to the larger A321 variant, and at Embraer, where the E170 is no longer in production. The dominant aircraft is the largest E195-E2, which accounts for 81% of all orders, compared to 9% previously.
US Transpo Secretary supports zero tariffs on aerospace, but change isn’t assured
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By Scott Hamilton
July 7, 2025, © Leeham News: US Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy wants to return to aerospace’s zero-tariff agreement, dating to 1979, but cautioned that doing so requires a larger trade agreement between party governments.
Currently, the US has a minimum 10% to 25% tariff on aerospace imports from the European Union and Canada, with much higher fees in some cases. The EU is prepared to impose reciprocal tariffs on the US.
Tariffs have major implications for Airbus and Boeing. Although Airbus assembles A220s and A320/321s at its US Mobile (AL) plant, fuselages, wings and other components are imported into the US from Canada (A220s) and the EU (A320/321s).
Boeing exports planes to the EU, which includes 28 countries. Boeing has more exposure than Airbus.
Components imported by Airbus or Boeing for inclusion in the airplanes are also subject to tariffs.
A Boeing spokesperson told LNA that it can recapture tariffs on important components that are on aircraft subsequently exported. But this ignores the overarching tariffs the EU may apply to the completed airplane.
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Christian Scherer, CEO of Airbus Commercial. Credit: Airbus.
In advance of the Paris Air Show, Airbus said that it’s going to adjust to US-imposed tariffs.
Responding to a question if it “made sense” for the Mobile plant to assemble A220s and A320/321s at the present rate given the impact of the tax, Christian Scherer said there will be no change. Airbus will live with the situation as it evolves. Scherer is the CEO of Airbus’s commercial operations.
Does an A220-500 need a new wing and engines? Part 4.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
July 3, 2025, © Leeham News: We are writing an article series about stretching the A220 to a capacity in the A320neo range. The idea is to replace the A320neo over time, making room in the A320/321 production lines for more A321s and extending the A220 family with a larger variant.
We can increase the capacity to that of the A320neo by stretching the A220 fuselage. The next discussion was about how much we could increase the Maximum Takeoff Weight (MTOW) to accommodate more passengers and additional fuel, thereby maintaining the A220-300 range with a longer, heavier, and, therefore, draggier aircraft. We would need to find wing lift improvements and more thrust to keep the field performance close to the A220-300.
We now utilize the Leeham Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM) to evaluate various changes to an A220-500 to optimize its performance. 
Figure 1. A rendering of an A220-500. Source: Leeham Co.
Summary:
- An A220-500 can be designed to have close to the same fuel seat-mile economics as the A320neo. Our article series explains why beating the A320neo would be a challenge.
- It also looks into what a CFM LEAP-engined A220-500 would look like and how it would perform.
GE testing of giant GE9X engine aims for maturity at entry into service
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By Scott Hamilton
June 30, 2025, © Leeham News: GE Aerospace developed a huge engine for the Boeing 777X, the most powerful engine ever created. The GE9X tops out at 115,000 lbs of thrust.
The giant GE9X engine for the Boeing 777X generates 115,000 lbs of thrust. The human scale of the engine is illustrated here at a display at the Paris Air Show. Credit: Leeham News.
It’s had its development challenges. The 777-9, the first of the X family, was supposed to enter service in early 2020. Technical issues with the GE9X required removal of the engines from the test airplanes and a return to GE for fixes. This delayed flight testing by nine months. By then, certification of the 777X got caught up in the Boeing 737 MAX crisis; the 777X still is awaiting certification, which parties hope will come this year. Deliveries are now expected to begin next year.
Tim Clark, the president of Emirates Airline, has 205 Xs on order, more than any other customer, out of 521 in total. He’s publicly complained about the initial test results of the GE9X and demanded engine maturity before he’ll accept delivery.
GE has used the six year delay in the program to attempt to satisfy this demand.