Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
- The BWB has a long way to go before flying passengers, freight May 12, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 21. May 9, 2025
- Does an A220-500 need a new wing and engines? Part 2. May 8, 2025
- Embraer downplays tariff impact on 2025 results May 6, 2025
- JetZero readies effort for private equity fund raising May 5, 2025
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 41. Production learning curve
By Bjorn Fehrm
December 08, 2023, ©. Leeham News: We are discussing the different phases of an airliner development program. After covering Conceptual, Preliminary, and Detailed design, the manufacturing of prototypes, and their roles in Flight Tests, we now look at Production.
Last week, we explained why aircraft projects often fail 100 to 200 aircraft into production. What’s not well understood is the effects of production learning on product cost.
Figure 1. The development plan for a new airliner. Source: Leeham Co.
Re-engining the Boeing 767
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By Bjorn Fehrm
December 7, 2023, © Leeham News: We wrote last week that Boeing is considering re-engining the 767 to avoid a production stop after 2027. The 767 is still an interesting aircraft for companies flying cargo and for the US Air Force, which is taking delivery of the tanker version KC-46A for years to come.
The problem is that all the 767 versions are using engines from the 1970s (GE CF6, PW4000, RB211), and as the FAA has accepted the ICAO emission rules from 2017, the production of the 767 with these engines has to stop after 2027. As reported last week, Beoing is looking at re-engining the 767 to avoid a production stop.
We use our Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM) to look at the different possible configurations with new engines and model their performance data and operating economics.
Summary:
- The Boeing 767 needs new engines if it shall be produced after 2027.
- While the engine candidate is clear, the rest of a re-engined 767 can be configured in several ways. We look at what different configurations bring in operational performance.
Boeing returns to PNAA
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 5, 2023, © Leeham News: Boeing and the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance have kissed and made up.
After a two-year boycott, Boeing returns this year as a sponsor to PNAA, a suppliers-oriented trade group, and to sponsor and provide speakers to its annual conference in February. Boeing abruptly withdrew from the organization and the conference in 2022, citing a sexual discrimination lawsuit that had been filed by one of its women employees against the then executive director, a male, and the male-dominated Board of Directors. However, PNAA’s staff was predominately women and women were represented on the Board. The lawsuit was settled for undisclosed terms.
Boeing’s stated reason for withdrawal was questioned by some familiar with the background. Additionally, there has long been an occasional tense relationship between PNAA and Boeing. Analysts and consultants who appeared as speakers or panelists long criticized Boeing for its Partnering for Success program, which some viewed as brow-beating suppliers into cutting prices.
Pontifications: Embraer sees easing in pilot shortage, wave of sales coming
By Scott Hamilton
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 5, 2023, © Leeham News: Embraer officials see the pilot shortage easing in 2025 or 2026.
Francisco Gomes Netos, CEO of the Embraer group, said during a media briefing last month that the “situation” is getting better. Boeing, in its latest 20-year forecast, reported that 649,000 pilots will be needed globally over the next 20 years.
With a wave of pilot retirements, especially in the US, coming in the next few years, the shortage and demand seem daunting.
“In our internal market intelligence, I would say that the situation should be much better in 2025 and 2026. We see the situation improving,” Gomes said.
The biggest impact of the pilot shortage was on the 50-seat regional jet, CFO Antonios Carlos Garcia said. The majors want 76-seat aircraft.
Orders for Embraer’s E-Jet E2 have been slow. Because the E175-E2 exceeds the weight limit in the labor contracts, known as Scope Clauses, this model isn’t sold in the US, the biggest market for the 76-seat aircraft, and for Embraer.
The E190-E2 is an “in-between” aircraft that isn’t selected by many customers. The largest of the family, the E195-E2, has a backlog of a few hundred aircraft. But Embraer hasn’t been winning orders of the magnitude Airbus and Boeing are winning.
Gomes believes the E2’s day is coming. “It’s coming, the wave to focus on our segment.”
Airbus: Global services sector to double by 2042
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By Gordon Smith
December 4, 2023, © Leeham News: If the last decade taught us anything, it’s just how challenging it is to make accurate forecasts. While this is true of almost all industries, few are as difficult to predict as aerospace. It can feel like a feat to quantify the immense number of variables involved, never mind establishing what they actually mean.
So credit where it is due to Airbus, which has published its latest Global Services Forecast (GSF) for the coming two decades.
The headlines are eye-catching. The European firm believes the value of the commercial aircraft services market will double by 2042 to $255bn. Driven by soaring traffic demand and technological developments, the sector will require millions more staff than it has today and thousands of new aircraft.
Summary
- The services market is supporting more than 24,000 aircraft globally this year, valued at approximately $130bn – up 46% on 2022 as the post-pandemic recovery reaches a crescendo
- This figure is due to reach $180bn by 2030 and $255bn by 2042, representing a compounded annual growth rate of 3.6%
- Aircraft maintenance will comprise 80% of the market by 2042, valued at $210bn, with ‘aircraft enhancement’ estimated at $28bn, and training and operations generating $17bn
- Connected aircraft is a key trend, with Airbus forecasting that more than 44,000 airplanes will form part of a ‘connectivity ecosystem’ by 2042, with significant passenger benefits and operational efficiencies
Harvest season at Embraer
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By Scott Hamilton
Francisco Gomes Neto, CEO of Embraer.
Dec. 4, 2023, © Leeham News: Embraer had a tough time beginning in 2017. A joint venture with Boeing was proposed following the Airbus acquisition of the Bombardier C Series program. The latter sent flares overhead with the expectation that Embraer could not compete against the rival C Series now that Airbus’ marketing would be in control.
A proposed turboprop program was struggling to close the business case. There were no advanced engines to power the model. The market was forecast to be a mere 2,100 airplanes over 20 years. The only remaining turboprop manufacturer outside China and Russia was ATR, which is 50% owned by Airbus. Airbus could crush any new entry from Embraer, should it choose. The E175-E2 was too heavy to comply with the US union contract Scope Clause, effectively killing this model. Without the E175-E2, the world’s biggest market for the E2 was closed to Embraer.
The JV held big promise for Embraer. The E-Jet E2 program engineering was largely done and the engineers needed work. Under the terms of the proposed JV, Embraer would participate in the development of Boeing’s proposed New Midmarket Airplane (NMA). Engineering and production were elements of the work package.
Additionally, Embraer would be responsible for developing a new 100-150 seat airplane for Boeing.
But the March 2019 grounding of the Boeing 737 MAX killed the NMA in January 2020, when David Calhoun became CEO. The COVID-19 pandemic cratered demand for all airplane types (including Embraer’s). In April 2020, Calhoun withdrew from the JV. Boeing claimed Embraer failed to meet all terms and conditions. Embraer denied this and the matter is in arbitration now. A decision is expected in the first half of 2024.
Today, Embraer is roaring back.
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 40. The initial production crisis
By Bjorn Fehrm
December 01, 2023, ©. Leeham News: We are discussing the different phases of an airliner development program. After covering Conceptual, Preliminary, and Detailed design, the manufacturing of prototypes, and their roles in flight tests, we now look at Production.
Last week, we explained why the focus on the production phase has increased for recent and future projects. Now we go deeper into why the production phase and how it runs is so important.
Figure 1. The development plan for a new airliner. Source: Leeham Co.
The Exception to the Green Propulsion Rule
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By Bjorn Fehrm
November 30, 2023, © Leeham News: The interest in Green alternative propulsion for airliners started in earnest at Farnborough Air Show 2014, where Airbus flew the E-Fan battery-electric aircraft. What followed was a dense stream of alternative propulsion airliner projects.
They all have in common that nothing much has come out of them. We have a Pipistrel two-seat trainer that can fly for 50 minutes on batteries, but not much else. More elaborate projects have wide slips in their plans, and nine years later, we lack real prototypes for all projects.
We have functional models flying for nine-seat hybrids and 19/30-seat hydrogen fuel cell aircraft that swap one engine for a Green alternative. Of the latter, there is one project that stands out from the rest. It has shown real progress over the last years and has realistic plans for a 55-seat hydrogen airliner that can be operational in three to four years.
We will analyze why the Universal Hydrogen ATR fuel cell project is the exception to the “Green Propulsion Rule,” that nothing comes out of all plans, and why it could be the first Green Propulsion airliner, ending a 10-year draught.
Figure 1. The Universal Hydrogen Dash 8-300 functional demonstrator. Source: Universal Hydrogen.
Summary:
- A Green Propulsion project means the airliner does not use hydrocarbon-burning (Kerosene or SAF) gas turbines.
- The project that breaks the rule that nothing seems to reach practical use this side of 2030 is the Universal Hydrogen ATR project.
Rolls-Royce sets out ambitious vision to future-proof its business
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By Gordon Smith
November 29, 2023, © Leeham News: Rolls-Royce’s (RR) capital markets day presented a business that has bookended 2023 with two very different narratives. The November 28 event heralded targets such as a quadrupling of operating profit within five years, delivered via a bullish new growth strategy and re-energized vision for the future. How different things felt just 11 months earlier.
In January, new chief executive Tufan Erginbilgic adopted something of a shock-and awe approach, describing the company’s position in terms so blunt that it made even the most experienced market watchers blush.
Picking up the baton from Warren East – who had led the business for eight years – Erginbilgic’s comments went beyond the conventional candor of an incoming exec and spooked many. The new boss labeled the British firm a “burning platform” and described Rolls’ status quo as “unsustainable”.
Despite efficiency drives instigated by his predecessor, Erginbilgic’s message was clear; 2023 represented a “last chance” to change. Needless to say, there was a particularly high degree of expectation behind Rolls’ flagship investor event, his first as CEO.
Pontifications: Airbus ponders A330neo MRTT, Boeing ponders KC-46A re-engine
By Scott Hamilton
By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 28, 2023, © Leeham News: In a reversal of intent, the airplane that Airbus may submit to the US Air Force for the next round of aerial tanker procurement may be based on the A330neo instead of the current production A330-200ceo MRTT.
The Air Force, however, may forego competition between Airbus and Boeing and place a sole-source follow-on order with Boeing for the KC-46A tanker, based on the 767-200ER. Boeing already has a contract for 179 KC-46As, and the USAF appears to be leaning toward a sole-source award. Political pressure from Airbus partisans and others who favor competition may prevail.
Related articles
- Airbus to develop second generation MRTT based on A330neo. (Aviation Week.)
- Lockheed Martin sees MRTT as complimentary to KC-46A
- Lockheed bows out, Airbus to continue, Boeing favored in tanker procurement
Airbus wants to discontinue production of the A330-200ceo-based MRTT. The neo-based version would be based on the A330-800. Sales of the -800 are poor—fewer than 20 have been ordered. An -800 based MRTT will breathe life into the nearly still-born model.
- Boeing considers re-engining the 767-300ERF and the KC-46A.
- KC-46A, 767-200, A330 MRTT exempt from 2027 ICAO standards.