Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- The BWB has a long way to go before flying passengers, freight May 12, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 21. May 9, 2025
- Does an A220-500 need a new wing and engines? Part 2. May 8, 2025
- Embraer downplays tariff impact on 2025 results May 6, 2025
- JetZero readies effort for private equity fund raising May 5, 2025
Outlook 2024: Expectations growing at Airbus
Subscription Required
By Gordon Smith
January 2, 2024, © Leeham News: Many businesses start to wind down operations as the holiday season approaches – but for the big OEMs, the year-end usually means a sprint finish. Airbus is no exception.
Speaking to investors in early November, CEO Guillaume Faury reconfirmed the company’s earnings target for 2023 and sounded optimistic about the prospect of meeting its delivery goal of “around 720” aircraft for the calendar year: “We think we are well-placed to deliver around 161 planes to fulfill the guidance. For those deliveries, we obviously have a high degree of visibility on parts, including engines,” he said.
Although the official tally for 2023 is not likely to be published until next week, the latest figures from November offer valuable insight into progress towards the goal. In a December 5 update, the OEM revealed that it delivered 64 aircraft during the previous month, bringing the year-to-date total to 623 examples. This left 97 units to be handed over before the start of 2024.
Done for 2023, LNA returns on Jan. 2 with our Outlook series
The Kingston, WA, ferry terminal parking lot. Decorations by the City of Kingston, WA. Photo by Scott Hamilton.
Dec. 22, 2023, © Leeham News: Today is LNA’s final posting for 2023, absent some breaking news of international importance. We resume posting on Jan. 2, 2024.
We will begin the New Year with a series of Outlook articles, looking ahead for 2024. This was a regular feature until the COVID pandemic pretty well destroyed any outlooks for the two years of lockdown. This year (2023) began on the tail end of the pandemic recovery. Now, with the global economy largely back to normal, we resume our Outlook series.
We’ll take a look at the airframe and engine OEMs and the ecoaviation sector.
In the meantime, Merry Christmas and Happy New Year wherever in the world you are.
The staff of Leeham News and Analysis.
Bjorn’ s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 43. Delivery
By Bjorn Fehrm
December 22, 2023, ©. Leeham News: We are discussing the different phases of a new airliner program. After covering the Design, Prototype phase, and Production, we now look at the first deliveries.
After about seven to nine years of development and production preparation, it’s finally time for the first delivery of the new aircraft.
Figure 1. The development plan for a new airliner. Source: Leeham Co.
Re-engining the Boeing 767, Part 3
Subscription required
By Bjorn Fehrm
December 21, 2023, © Leeham News: We are looking at a re-engine of the 767, a move that Boeing is considering to avoid a production stop after 2027. The present 767 engines don’t pass emission regulations introduced by the FAA, EASA, and other regulators for production and delivery beyond 2027.
We looked at what airframe modifications are necessary to house more efficient engines last week; now, we use our Aircraft Performance and Cost model to look at the economics of the original 767 versus a re-engined one.
Summary:
- New, more environmentally friendly engines give the 767 better fuel economics.
- The Cash Operating Costs improvement is affected by higher engine maintenance costs and higher underway and airport fees as a re-engined 767 is a heavier aircraft.
Pontifications: Pope, the enigma
Editor’s Note: This is the final week of 2023 scheduled publications for LNA. Our usual posts this week will appear on Thursday and Friday. Then we’re taking the Christmas-New Year’s week off and will resume posting on Jan. 2, 2024, provided there is no breaking news of importance during the holidays.
Dec. 19, 2023, © Leeham News: Naming Stephanie Pope to the new position of EVP and COO of The Boeing Co. raises more questions than it answers.
By Scott Hamilton
Stephanie Pope. Credit: Pope’s Linkedin.
Pope was CEO of Boeing Global Services, the only company unit currently making a consistent profit. She was named to the new corporate-level post on Dec. 11. She immediately became the favorite to succeed president and CEO David Calhoun. Calhoun, 66, was given an extension of up to five years from Boeing’s mandatory retirement age of 65. Some press reports suggested Calhoun may retire in the next year or two.
Stan Deal, the CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, and Brian West, the corporate CFO, were said to have been in contention for Calhoun’s job. But Deal, who is also an EVP of The Boeing Co., is 59. At this age, any elevation to corporate CEO was a long shot at best. Calhoun brought West into the CFO position in August 2021. He’s 54, which could have given him 10 years as CEO if Calhoun steps down next year. Pope, at age 51, has four years to age 55 and then 10 years to be CEO.
In four years, Calhoun will be 70—the outside age the Board of Directors gave him with the extension.
Why Is all this timeline business relevant? Here’s why.
Embraer’s EVE brings some reality to UAM/eVTOL sector
Subscription Required
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 18, 2023, © Leeham News: There are hundreds of “alternative energy” concepts under study for commercial aviation and a new air taxi industry. Most will fail to prove technically feasible or obtain the funding required to successfully bring the ideas to market and production.
A few concepts are based on reality. EVE is one of them.
EVE is an air taxi concept floated by principal owner Embraer.
Embraer’s EVE urban air mobility vehicle. Credit: EVE.
During a media briefing last month, Johann Bordais, EVE’s CEO, said the Urban Air Mobility (UAM) concept for EVE is a spin-off from an idea Embraer had in 2017. EVE was later spun off, while Embraer retains a majority stake.
“We became independent because we understand that we need to be agile, and go faster because the air mobility revolution was happening already,” Bordais said. “We needed to get moving. We also needed to get some funds and that’s why we also had a SPAC and we merged with Zanite.” SPAC stands for Special Purpose Acquisition Company.
EVE went public on May 10, 2022. With added funding, EVE began production earlier this year of the prototype.
Bordais said Embraer’s 54 years of legacy sets EVE apart from other concepts.
“It’s about knowing what we’re talking about. It’s not about just having prototypes flying around the cities. It’s about the whole ecosystem,” he said. “It’s about also the know-how.”
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 42. Improving the learning curve
By Bjorn Fehrm
December 15, 2023, ©. Leeham News: We are discussing the different phases of a new airliner program. After covering Conceptual, Preliminary, and Detailed design, the manufacturing of prototypes, and their roles in flight tests, we now look at the production phase.
Last week, we discussed why production costs vary over time and why they can be up to 500% higher for the first units than for units past 400 to 500 aircraft produced. Now we go deeper into the reasons behind this and what can be done to improve the situation.
Figure 1. The program plan for a new airliner. Source: Leeham Co.
Re-engining the Boeing 767, Part 2
Subscription required
By Bjorn Fehrm
December 14, 2023, © Leeham News: We are looking at a re-engine of the 767, a move that Boeing is considering to avoid a production stop after 2027. The present 767 engines don’t pass emission regulations introduced by FAA, EASA, and other regulators for production and delivery beyond 2027.
We have described the history of the 767 and the key data of the different variants in last week’s article. Now, we look at what airframe modifications are necessary to house more efficient engines and what consequences these bring.
Summary:
- New, more environmentally friendly engines for the 767 mean changes to the landing gear and structures to house larger and heavier engines.
- For the payload capacity to stay the same a deeper grab in the 767-400 toolbox is necessary than just adopting the landing gear.
Collaboration is key with supply chain, says Airbus
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 12, 2023, © Leeham News: The aerospace supply chain still hasn’t fully recovered the COVID-19 pandemic. All aerospace manufacturers are affected, as are the supplier to the suppliers.
At the annual Aviation Forum last week in Hamburg, Germany, Airbus said collaboration is one of the keys to recovery.
Jurgen Westermeier. Credit: Airbus.
Jürgen Westermeier, the chief procurement officer (CPO) at Airbus, said “unlocking the power of collaboration” means “great things happen when we work together.
“This has been illustrated in the past, when we had to face a situation of crisis together. In the past, in the face of a crisis, collaboration has been key,” Westermeier said.
There have been first-hand a series of successive crises which radically reshaped the aerospace sector. “Be it in an unprecedented global pandemic, geopolitical events, the likes the world hasn’t seen in a long time, and a climate emergency that no one can ignore anymore. Several suppliers entered the COVID period with weak financials.”
In addition, the CPO said, there has been high inflation, increasing energy prices, rising labor costs, and bank interests that are putting the ability of certain categories of suppliers at risk. “Airbus developed over the years several collaborative tools designed to better manage the crisis together. First, the Supplier Financial Watchtower,” Westermeier said. “This allows Airbus to monitor the financial health of its supply chain and identify potential issues. We are then able to deep dive into specific situations to understand the risk at stake, and if necessary, co-develop a mitigation plan with the supplier concerned. Not only does this approach ensure we can support our supplier in securing a planned ramp-up, but it also allows us to develop a sense of community.”
Embraer’s C-390 builds momentum; civilian freighter pondered
Subscription Required
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 11, 2023, © Leeham News: Embraer’s flagship defense program, the KC/C-390 finally took off this year. Orders began rolling in, after a long drought and cancellations by the Brazilian government that cast doubt over the viability of the program. This month, an order for an undisclosed number of C-390s were announced with South Korea. Embraer is in contention for an order for around 80 transports from India.
Brazil, Portugal, Hungary, the Netherlands, Austria, and the Czech Republic have ordered the C-390. Some are in NATO configuration.
Embraer C-390 Millennium. Credit: Embraer.
The C-390 Millenium also comes in a tanker version, the KC-390, The twin-jet is about the size of a Boeing 737 dimensionally and a fuselage cross-width about the diameter of a Boeing 767. It is the Brazilian company’s largest aircraft. Its closest competitor is the Lockheed Martin C-130J.
The C-390 and the single-engine propeller trainer, the Super Tucano, are the defense unit’s to leading programs. In a media briefing last month, Bosco da Costa Jr, President, and CEO of Embraer Defense & Security, said the company developed more than 20 models of various types since Embraer was formed 54 years ago.
In 2017, Embraer and Boeing proposed a joint venture by which Embraer Commercial Aircraft (ECA) would divest from the Group into Boeing Brasil. Boeing would own 80% of the JV and Embraer would own 20%. A JV for the KC-390, with a 51%-49% in favor of Embraer would provide EMB with Boeing’s marketing heft to market the then-stalled sales of the tanker-transport. Both JVs were terminated by Boeing in April 2020 before the combination could be consummated. Since then, Embraer agreed with US defense contractor L3 Harris to help market the airplane.