Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
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Bjorn’ s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 45. Continued Airworthiness
By Bjorn Fehrm
January 12, 2024, ©. Leeham News: We are discussing the different phases of a new airliner program. After covering the Design and Production, we now look at the Operational phase of a new airliner family.
For the operational phase, the airplane must pass scrutiny for Continued Airworthiness. Today, we discuss the different means available to the Regulator, such as Airworthiness Directives ( ADs) and System Bulletins (SBs) to the OEM to make sure any detected issues get noticed and corrected.
Figure 1. The Boeing MAX 9 Door Plug Emergency AD issued last week. Source: FAA.
Airbus posts record orders in 2023, meets delivery target despite challenges
By Tom Batchelor
January 11, 2024, © Leeham News: Airbus exceeded its target for aircraft deliveries last year and achieved a record number of orders despite what it called a “complex” and “volatile” operating environment, according to the company’s newly released 2023 order and delivery data.
The European planemaker delivered 735 commercial aircraft to 87 customers in 2023, versus 661 commercial aircraft to 84 customers the previous year – an increase of 11%, Figure 1.
Figure 1. A visualization of Airbus orders, deliveries, and backlog in 2023. Click to enlarge. Source: Airbus.
That was above the Airbus target of 720 commercial aircraft deliveries over the 12 months.
Of the 735 deliveries, 68 were from the A220 family, 571 were from the A320 family, 32 were from the A330 family and 64 were A350 family aircraft. Compared with the previous year, A330 and A350 family deliveries were broadly flat, while A220 and A320 family deliveries were significantly higher.
A321 deliveries accounted for 56% of A320 family deliveries. Airbus confirmed the latest variant in that family, the A321XLR, has reached the latter part of flight testing with the first delivery expected in Q2 2024.
The commercial aircraft business registered 2,319 gross new orders (2,094 net after cancellations), putting its 2023 year-end backlog at 8,598 aircraft. This was the first time Airbus has topped 2,000 net orders in a year.
The figure was a sharp increase versus 2022, when there were 1,078 gross commercial orders (820 net), and 7,239 aircraft in the backlog.
For comparison, Boeing data shows it delivered 528 aircraft in 2023 and received 1,456 gross new orders (1,314 net).
Alaska 1282 isn’t a “737 MAX” story; it’s about quality assurance at Boeing or Spirit
Update: The Federal Aviation Administration today notified Boeing it is under investigation for potentially failing to ensure the door plug was properly installed.
By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 11, 2024, © Leeham News: Alaska Airlines Flight 1282’s (AS 1282) decompression last Friday on a Boeing 737-9 MAX understandably brought new focus and doubts about the MAX program.
The MAX was grounded by the Federal Aviation Administration for 21 months after the March 2019 crash of an Ethiopian Airlines 737-8 MAX. This followed an October 2018 crash of a Lion Air MAX 8 under similar flight conditions. The two accidents were traced to the root cause of a mis-designed Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System, or MCAS.
Note: This data is based on October 2023 information. Full year 2023 data is not available at this writing.
When a door plug for an inactive emergency exit blew out of AS 1282 at 16,000 ft minutes after departure from Portland (OR), it meant trouble for Boeing and confidence in the MAX. Fortunately, no fatalities and only a few minor injuries resulted from the decompression. The flight returned to Portland and landed safely.
Alaska grounded its fleet of 65 MAX 9s within hours. United Airlines followed the next day. It has more MAX 9s—79—than any other airline. Shortly after United’s action, the FAA made it mandatory: the MAX 9s would remain grounded until inspections and fixes, if required, could be completed. A few other international airlines followed suit.
But as information emerged through Tuesday of this week, it became clear that this story is not a “MAX” story. It’s a story about quality assurance at Boeing or Spirit AeroSystems, the maker of the 737 fuselages and the plug door.
Managing supply chain stress continues
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By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 9, 2024, © Leeham News: The COVID-19 pandemic impact on aerospace and its supply chain was deep and long lasting. The airframe and engine manufacturers haven’t fully recovered. Part of the reason is that the supply chain hasn’t fully recovered, either.
LNA attended the Aviation Forum in Hamburg, Germany, last month. On the sidelines of the event, we met with Jurgen Westermeier, the chief procurement officer for Airbus. We discussed the supply chain and other issues. The following is a transcript of this interview. It has been edited for space and clarity.
Related Story:
737 incidents prompt new scrutiny at Boeing
By the Leeham News Team
Analysis
Jan. 8, 2024, © Leeham News: Following in the footsteps of the 737 rudder bolt omission inspection just last month, we have the Jan. 5 incident on Alaska Airlines Flight 1282 in which an emergency exit plug door blew off the airplane at 16,500 ft. This may indicate another quality assurance failure at either Boeing or Spirit AeroSystems.
The door plug design used on the Boeing 737-900/900ER, 737-8-200 and 737-9. Credit: Boeing, via the National Transportation Safety Board.
We don’t know if this is a Boeing problem, a Spirit problem, a bolt manufacturer problem, or an Alaska Airlines problem. It’s way too soon in the investigation to draw conclusions. Certainly, because it’s Boeing’s name on the airplane, and especially given the MAX history, people are jumping to the conclusion that Boeing screwed up again. While this may ultimately prove true, LNA is not at all prepared to conclude today that this is the case.
Illustration of the bolt locations securing the Boeing 737-9 door plug to the airframe. Credit: Capt. Chris Brady.
The flight left Portland (OR) for Ontario (CA) about 4:30pm. Six minutes later, as the two-month-old Boeing 737 MAX 9 was climbing through 16,500 ft to cruising altitude, the inactive emergency exit plug door, aft of the wing on the left side of the plane, separated from the aircraft. Decompression followed, with an emergency descent and landing back at Portland. There were no serious injuries.
The area where the door plug and cell phones fell from Alaska Airlines Flight 1282. Credit: Google Earth, NTSB.
Boeing and Spirit have been plagued in recent years by quality “escapes.” Inspection and quality assurance may be the culprit again. The official investigation will take some time. The rapid issuance of the Emergency AD Note mandating only a one time inspection is a logical response to something having been misassembled, with the fix being to verify it is assembled per drawing. Whether this is another piece of poor workmanship not being caught by inspection remains to be seen.
The following analysis was compiled by LNA’s news team.
Outlook 2024: Embraer’s continued recovery
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By Bjorn Fehrm
January 8, 2024, © Leeham News: Embraer was hit by a double whammy before and during COVID. The non-closure of the merger of Boeing’s and Embraer’s Commercial Aircraft Divisions and the halving of its E-Jet deliveries during COVID. The year that passed marked the recovery from the extra cost and effort of the non-merger and an increase in E-Jet deliveries and orders.
It was also a progress year for the EVE eVTOL venture, with Embraer finalizing design and starting prototype production. Despite the EVE lagging behind other programs by about a year, the customers believe it’s one the most viable programs. Eve doubles the preorders of the nearest competitors.
The past year will also be seen as the break-trough year for the KC-390, Embraer’s bet to replace the venerable Lockheed-Martin C-130 military airlifter. The customer list went from three to five, with more country air forces in serious negotiations for the KC-390.
Summary:
- The E-Jets are trending back to normal volumes with better margins.
- EVE is the best-selling eVTOL, as operators trust Embraer’s knowledge and support.
- The KC-390 is on its way to capture a big slice of the C-130 Hercules replacement marker.
Bjorn’ s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 44. Operation and Continued Airworthiness
By Bjorn Fehrm
January 5, 2024, ©. Leeham News: We are discussing the different phases of a new airliner program. After covering the Design and Production, we now look at the Operational phase of a new airliner family.
For the customer, the design and production are exciting and interesting, but it’s the information and services around the operational phase (Fleet Support in Figure 1) of the airliner that are most important to the airline customer.
Figure 1. The development plan for a new airliner. Source: Leeham Co.
Outlook 2024: Boeing needs a boring year in 2024
By Dan Catchpole
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Jan. 4, 2024 © Leeham News: Boeing’s priorities in 2024 are clear: get the job done on time and without drama, and don’t cause any scandals. In short, it needs a boring year. However, to do that, the aerospace giant has to overcome several obstacles.
Boeing Commercial Airplanes has to increase production rate goals, sign a new labor contract and help suppliers along. That means going against Boeing management’s cultural predilection for extracting concessions from unions and contractors.
Defense is a mess, and there’s little reason to think it will improve much this year. Several fixed-cost programs are bleeding money. Boeing is competing for three major United States Department of Defense programs, but it is not favored to win any of them. This year, leadership is expected to focus on controlling costs.
A new position of executive vice president and chief operating officer for The Boeing Co. was created last month. Stephanie Pope, previously CEO of Boeing Global Services, was named to fill this slot. She’s an unknown to some customers and hasn’t run a company approaching the size of Boeing. She’ll have to prove herself in this new position of greater responsibilities than she’s ever had.
Related Articles
- Boeing files for permits to increase capacity of Charleston 787 plant to produce 14 a month. Charleston Post and Courier.
- Charleston has room to increase 787 production. LNA, November 2020.
- 2024 will be key year for Boeing labor relations. LNA, November 2020.
Summary
- BCA has to smoothly increase production rates.
- Sign a new contract with Machinists.
- Staunch the bleeding at Boeing Defense, Space and Security.
Outlook 2024: European airline consolidation
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By Gordon Smith
January 3, 2024, © Leeham News: Consolidation is certainly in the air. Even before the shock announcement on December 3 that Hawaiian and Alaska are planning to tie the knot, the industry was gripped by the ‘will-they, won’t they’ saga of the proposed JetBlue and Spirit deal.
Although it’s US carriers that have been making headlines, the European airline market is experiencing its own flurry of mergers and acquisitions. This is a topic LNA covered at length pre-pandemic (Our backgrounder is available here).
At the time of this writing, big changes are happening at three of the continent’s best-known flag carriers. Significant shareholdings in ITA Airways (formerly Alitalia), TAP Air Portugal, and SAS Scandinavian Airlines are changing hands, with Europe’s aviation supergroups spying an opportunity to expand their respective empires.
Tapping into the latest data provided to LNA from aviation data analysts Cirium, we can get a better understanding of what these changes could mean for existing fleets and upcoming airliner deliveries.
JAL A350 ground collision is first hull loss by damage and fire of an all-composite airplane
Jan. 2, 2024, (c) Leeham News: Editor’s Note: With the ground collision (Jan. 2, 2024, Tokyo time) of a Japan Air Lines Airbus A350 and its destruction by fire, we’re reposting this article from March 2009. It was then that Boeing was in early production of the 787 and the Federal Aviation Administration was studying what Special Conditions to require in the event of a fire on a composite passenger airliner. The 787 was the first all-composite airliner and how composite of this scale would react in a fire was then mostly known. The only all-composite, large airplane fire had been that of the B-2 Stealth bomber.
Video via Times of London.
LNA spoke with airport fire officials about preparing for a composite airliner fire and we discussed the challenges the US Air Force had in putting out the B-2 fire. Fires occurred on two 787s after entry into service: a JAL aircraft that was parked at the Boston airport after a flight from Tokyo and an Ethiopian 787 parked in London. The JAL fire was traced to a battery. Airport firefighters faced challenges in putting out the fire. The airplane was heavily damaged but repaired. The Ethiopian 787 fire was traced to pinched wires creating a short at the emergency transmitter locator in the top of the fuselage. The plane was heavily damaged but repaired. The JAL A350 is the first hull loss of a composite airliner and the first by fire.
Investigators will learn all kinds of lessons from the A350 accident.
All passengers and crew on the A350 escaped. The five crew on the Japanese Coast Guard airplane involved in the collision died.
The March article is below.