Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Odds and Ends: Airbus, Boeing trade barbs–again; Airbus raises order goals; first 787-10 commitment
More tit-for-tat: Airbus and Boeing are engaged again in their pointless trading of barbs. But it makes for entertaining reading.
Here’s what Boeing had to say. The relevant excerpt is from the Bloomberg report: Airbus doesn’t “have an airframe that can compete” with the 777X, the upgraded version of Boeing’s biggest twin-engine plane, Chief Executive Officer Jim McNerney said at an investor conference today. “They don’t have the appetite to do a ground-up airplane, and they’d have to do a ground-up airplane.”
Considering the 777X itself is a derivative, we find McNerney’s comment kind of snarky. But he is right that Airbus doesn’t have a competing airplane to the 777-9X.
Here’s what Airbus had to say. The relevant except is also from Bloomberg: “The aircraft we rolled out a couple of weeks ago didn’t have rivets from Wal-Mart, like the ones our competitors had at the time off their roll-out,” Tom Enders, the chief executive officer of Airbus parent European Aeronautic, Defence & Space Co., told investors at the annual shareholders meeting today. “It’s a real aircraft.”
Airbus raises order goal: Here’s the story.
First 787-10 Commitment: As we’ve long reported, Singapore Airlines will be a launch customer for the 787-10.
- We’ll be at Day 2 of the Boeing PAS briefing today. Everything is embargoed until June 14 except for the briefing on the 737 MAX, at 2pm PDT.
Watch this blog for live updates (on the assumption Boeing will give media access to the Internet at the time, which it did yesterday at a different location). - Well, Boeing didn’t have Internet access today for us. So much for the live updates. See a new post for this information.
777 (today’s model) Program Update: Boeing briefing
We’re at Boeing today getting Paris Air Show briefings. The following is exempt from the embargo.
Elizabeth Lund, VP and GM (EL)
Jason Clark, Director 777 Operations (JC)
Lund:
- 5 years ago started laying out and implementation of Lean. It was part of larger strategy of continual improvement and investment of 777. The 777 is really a huge part of the Boeing franchise and strategy. We are interested in the continual improvement of the 777 for years to come. Reliability is 99.4%, the highest of any twin aisle aircraft today.
- There are many more investments in aircraft and production that you can’t see. In the last couple of years we’ve added connectivity to the airplane to stay connected over oceans.
- Certified to 330 ETOPS. We’re the only twin-engined aircraft so certified. Air New Zealand is the only customer so far using 330 ETOPS.
- You won’t see that the empty weight of the airplane is 1,000 lbs lower than three years ago instead of weight creeping up.
- We’ve improved navigation links.
- We’ve reduced maintenance costs. Have real-time tracking.
- We don’t have a fixed amount of money to invest annually. We evaluate technologies that might go into 777X and implement early; customer benefit; reducing costs. Guided more by this that than by budget.
Clark: Read more
Odds and Ends: 787 impact on Boeing; Pan Am Worldport follows the airline; KC-46A production
787 Impact on Boeing: Over at AirInsight, we write that the 787 grounding in the end has a small impact on Boeing. Find out why here.
Following Pan Am into oblivion: The famed Worldport will be demolished next year. Another piece of history will be gone, but our friend Benet Wilson thinks the demise is a good idea.
Speaking of history, did you realize Aloha Air Lines is still around, as Aloha Air Cargo?
KC-46A production begins: The Puget Sound Business Journal reports that production on the Boeing KC-46A USAF tanker begins shortly.
Plane Talking’s Air Show Preview: Ben Sandilands’ Plane Talking takes his look at the Paris Air Show preview today. Our Paris Air Show Preview will be coming next week. Tomorrow and Thursday we’re at Boeing all day for PAS briefings, all except program updates on the 737 MAX and today’s 777 under embargo until June 14 and the 2013 Current Market Outlook under embargo until June 11.
We’re particularly looking forward to the MAX briefing in light of the information linked yesterday to Daniel Tsang’s huge Boeing piece in which he touched on some MAX features.
Meantime, our colleague Addison Schonland will be going to the Airbus PAS briefing next week. We’ll link and follow his reports over at AirInsight.
Odds and Ends: IAM moves on Boeing SC; A330 sales; 787 delays and the cost to Boeing
IAM and Boeing: We knew it was only a matter of time: the IAM is gearing up for a new representation drive at Boeing’s Charleston (SC) plant. Needless to say, Boeing takes a dim view.
A330 Sales: Centre for Asia-Pacific Aviation has this thought-piece on the durability of Airbus A330 sales even as the Boeing 787 recovers.
787 Delays: Richard Aboulafia has this article in Forbes (once you click past the annoying advertising page that first pops up) detailing his analysis of the impact of 787 delays on Boeing strategy. He says these delays have been a boost to Airbus and the A350-1000 (Loren Thompson would say it’s because of illegal subsidies to Airbus [we have to stop meeting like this]).
Making up ground: Aspire Aviation has a comprehensive report about how Boeing has to make up ground on all fronts.
Video interviews with Emirates’ Clark, Delta’s Anderson
Two video interviews popped up this morning with key leaders of airlines: Tim Clark, president of Emirates Airlines, and Richard Anderson, CEO of Delta Air Lines. Each is more than 25 minutes.
Emirates’ Tim Clark:
[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VjHePahW7Os&w=560&h=315]
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Delta’s Richard Anderson via Bloomberg News is here.
Odds and Ends: Who’s John Wayne? Air Show musings; Restoring the Dornier 17
As we go into this Memorial Day Weekend, we’re feeling a bit irreverent. So we’re going to meander a bit.
Who’s John Wayne? We were in a hardware store checking out. We often say, Thank you, Ma’am to women who are employed in any capacity in a retail store. The checker was a young lady (by our standards, alas). She responded, “That’s the first time I’ve been called ‘Ma’am.'”
John Wayne in The Shootist, his last movie. Wayne died in 1979.
Being a John Wayne fan, we said, in our best John Wayne drawl, “Well, how about ‘Missy, like John Wayne says?”
“Who’s John Wayne?”
Turns out Missy was born in 1996 (John Wayne died in 1979). Nonetheless, we didn’t know whether to be appalled that even this young-un didn’t know who John Wayne was…or to feel really, really old.
Paris Air Show: The countdown to the Paris Air Show continues and speculation remains rife whether the Airbus A350 will make an appearance. We think it will, with a fly-by. If it’s in flight testing, why not? Toulouse is less than an hour from Paris.
But let’s hope there isn’t any repeat of the A320 accident at an air show early into the A320 program, though that Air France-liveried airplane wasn’t flown by test pilots (they were the airline’s pilots).
It will be a contest for headlines, as always. Qatar Airways apparently will have Boeing put a 787 through some aerobatics, from what we hear. We also expect the launch of the 787-10 and some commitments for the 777X. We’re sure Airbus will have the A380 aerobatics, the A350 and a race for orders to match or out-do Boeing.
And both sides will take shots at the other. Ho hum.
Restoring the Dornier 17: This is a light German bomber used over England in World War II. The British are working to recover one from 50 ft of water and to restore it. Here’s the BBC report.
Dornier 17 light German bomber used in World War II.
Odds and Ends: Dominating Wide-Bodies; Trying to save the 747-8; Delta waits; China OKs 787
Dominating Wide-Bodies: Boeing claimed at its investors’ day yesterday it will dominate the wide-body sector. This, predictably, caused some mirth among our Reader Comments.
We agree with Boeing–for the next several years.
The 777-9X will have a monopoly in its seat size, just as the 777-300ER does today. Boeing’s greater production plans, both announced and with figures bandied about for some time, also support this.
Below is our chart, based on announced production numbers, anticipated 787 production and our own prognostications.
Production rate is per month.
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |
| A380 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| A350 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| A330 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Total | 15 | 17 | 19 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| 777X | 2 | ||||||
| 777 Today | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 6 | 6 |
| 787 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| 747 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Total | 20.05 | 20.05 | 19.3 | 21.3 | 23.3 | 21 | 21 |
What do you think?
Saving the 747-8: The Puget Sound Business Journal has this article about Boeing’s latest effort to improve sales prospects for the 747-8, particularly the passenger model. Only 31 Intercontinentals have been ordered by airlines (vs 262 Airbus A380s). This is only a 10.5% market share for Boeing.
Delta Waits: Delta Air Lines hasn’t ordered the Boeing 787, the Airbus A350 or the re-engined aircraft. The 787s it inherited from Northwest Airlines’ order and merger have been pushed out to 2020 and, for all intents and purposes, may as well be considered canceled, though they are still on the books. Why no orders for the new or re-engined airplanes? This article explains.
China OKs 787: Chinese authorities have at long last certified the 787 for operation by its airlines. China Southern was one of the early launch customers but swapped delivery slots to avoid the so-called Terrible Teens (overweight, highly re-worked models). Chinese carriers hoped to have the 787 in service in time for the 2008 Summer Olympics in China, and when the 787 was named, the number “8” was said to be a good number in China (thought there was never really any doubt about the name since 8 was next in sequence).
But certification was delayed and delayed. We’ll probably never truly know why, but market rumor reported a nexus between the Chinese certifying the 787 and the FAA’s dawdling on certification procedures for the COMAC C919. Not that the Chinese would ever play politics with airplane deals, mind you….
Boeing’s McNerney: Interest in 787-10, 777X high; “our airplanes are better than theirs”
Boeing held an investors’ conference today that began at zero dark thirty PDT, so we weren’t up to listen to the webcast. The PDF presentations are here.
According to news reports, McNerney said interest in the forthcoming 787-10 and 777X is high. We expect both models to be launched this year, with the 787-10 coming at the Paris Air Show and the 777X later in the year (perhaps at the Dubai Air Show, with Emirates Airlines a launch customer?).
Reports also quote McNerney as saying Boeing’s airplanes are better than Airbus’ (what else will he say?). He said the 777-9X and the 787 bracket the Airbus twin aisles (true) and the 9X won’t have any competition from Airbus (also true).
McNerney claims Boeing has a five year lead on Airbus in working with composites, which is a bit of a stretch: 25% of the A380 by weight (which is more than the 787) is composite (the aft end of the airplane) and Airbus has been using composites on airplanes since the A300. But he is correct that the 787 had a long lead over Airbus for a composite fuselage. Unfortunately much of this lead has been squandered due to poor execution.
The 3:13 hr/min replay is available here; you have to register first.
Odds and Ends: Boeing ponders 787 rate hike; A350 fly-by at PAS?; EMB wins order for E-Jet
787 Rate Hike: Boeing CEO Jim McNerney acknowledged the company is considering a production rate hike for the 787. Readers here know we’ve been saying for months this is necessary for the 787-10 and to open up delivery slots for customers for the other sub-types.
A350 fly-by at PAS? Will the Airbus A350 make an appearance at the Paris Air Show after all? Is the Pope Catholic? Speculation is rampant that it will happen.
Embraer wins order for E-Jet: Embraer picked up an order for 40 E-175s from SkyWest Airlines, for operation on behalf of United Airlines.