Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Farnborough: CFM, PW engage in hand-to-hand combat
We’re all used to Airbus and Boeing engaging in hand-to-hand combat. The war has now spilled over to CFM and Pratt & Whitney and the LEAP engine vs the GTF.
There have always been some sharp words. But according to these two stories from Guy Norris at Aviation Week, the tone has now gotten even sharper.
CFM claims big advantage over GTF.
We’re puzzled by CFM’s claim (in the first story) that the LEAP will have a 2%-2.5% advantage in fuel burn over the GTF. Airbus gives a 1.5% advantage to GTF because of the larger fan (John Leahy, Credit Suisse conference Nov. 30, 2011). CFM claims a 15% SFC gain over today’s engines; PW claims 16% SFC gains (pre-installation) for its GTF and flying test results bear this out, PW says.
CFM has a larger market share of aircraft over 100 seats, because of its exclusivity on the 737 MAX. CFM also has a larger share of the A320neo family, the only airplane where there is head-to-head competition, bolstered by the policy of sister company, lessor GECAS, of buying only GE engines; and a financial rescue of Frontier Airlines, which has a CFM-powered A320 fleet and which ordered the A319neo/320neo at the Paris Air Show last year with LEAP engines.
It’s noteworthy in the first article that the LEAP-1B for the 737 MAX shares little commonality with the LEAP-1A and LEAP-1C. This reflects the challenges of fitting a LEAP under the wings of the physically-constrained 737, which basically required another core design.
Separately, here is a story about the materials and process used for the LEAP.
Farnborough underway with CFM press conference
Tweets from Saturday’s CFM press conference:
Bernie Baldwin @BernieBaldwin
#FARN12 #FIA12 @CFM_engines Part commonality between LEAP-1A and LEAP-1B very little.
CFM: 737 Max Leap-1B engine core has 10-stage 22:1 pressure ratio in the HPC. 1st 5 stages are blisks. Plans 5-stage LPT. #FIA12
Bernie Baldwin @BernieBaldwin
#FARN12 #FIA12 @CFM_engines doesn’t see a commercial use of open rotor technology in the thrust range where CFM sits now until about 2030.
Another shot from @CFM_engines: Each Leap-powered A320neo will have $3-$4M net present value advantage on 15yr term against A320neo w/PW1200
Bernie Baldwin @BernieBaldwin
#FARN12, #FIA12 @CFM_engines LEAP-1A/1C design freeze took place on 28 June 2012, drawings now being released. -1B freeze will be mid 2013.
Interesting: @CFM_engines predicts Leap-1A will beat PW1200 on MX by 50h/yr on A320neo. Also 4 fewer “fill-ups”. #FARN12 #FIA12
Looks like @CFM_engines expects CFM56 production to phase out completely by 2019, meaning no more A320neos & 737NGs. #FIA12 #FARN12
Here is a full story from The Wall Street Journal. Author Jon Ostrower also posted the following image on his Facebook account:
The mid-size, twin-aisle battle
The mid-size twin-aisle battle
While a plethora of new entrants are nipping at the heels of Airbus and Boeing in the single-aisle market, the battle in the twin-aisle segment is strictly between the two behemoths.
The two OEMs differ on the size of the market by a wide margin. Airbus, in its 2011 20-year Global Market Outlook, the most recent available, forecasts a need for 6,525 twin-aisle airplanes: 4,518 “small” twin aisles and 1,907 “large” twin-aisles. Boeing, which does not publicly distinguish this segment, forecast a need for 7,950 twin-aisles. This is in the 200-400 seat segment (Airbus uses 210-400 for its forecast).
Given their methodology differences in the total market forecast, both nonetheless come to the same market share—24%–of the mid-size, twin-aisle segment.
The line-up is:
Boeing’s twin-aisle product strategy provides better segment coverage than Airbus
Boeing’s airplane strategy has shifted its focus to twin-aisle aircraft with the decision to proceed with the 737 MAX, says Nicole Piasecki, vice president of Business Development & Strategic Integration for Boeing Commercial Airplanes.
BCA has some critical tasks and choices ahead:
- Complete the design and get into production the 787-9;
- Launch the 787-10; and
- Decide what to do to enhance the 777 to compete with the Airbus A350-1000.
Although launching the 787-10 is considered by most to be a foregone conclusion, it hasn’t happened yet. And although Boeing has been showing some reasonably detailed concepts around about the 777-8X, a 350-passenger replacement for the 777-300ER, and the 777-9X, a 407 passenger aircraft, neither concept is firm—and, according to one airline fleet planner, it’s not even clear Boeing will do much more than simply re-engine the current 777-300ER.
Nonetheless, Piasecki showed a group of reporters the Boeing product planning in a pre-Farnborough Air Show briefing that clearly demonstrates Boeing has better market segment coverage than Airbus today or potentially in the future. (Click to enlarge.)
No plateau on 737NG: Boeing
“There is no plateau in interest on the 737NG,” says Boeing’s Beverly Wyse, VP and GM of the stalwart program.
“Even though there are a lot of challenges in the industry, the growth, particularly in the single aisle market in emerging markets and Low Cost Carriers, continues to give us a lot of confidence the demand is out there. Even with the struggles in Europe, there seems to be a little tension between replacement demand and growth demand. We don’t see any pullback in the demand on the 737 at our current production rates or a weakness in demand as we transition to the MAX.”
Wyse gave this assessment during a briefing to the media in advance of the Farnborough Air Show. The briefings were embargoed until July 5.
“Basically we are full all the way through to the middle of 2016. We do have some capacity left in 2016 and 2017 prior to the introduction of the MAX,” she said. “We do have some NGs out in 2018 but that capacity is filling up. We still have customers coming in for NG and MAX four or five or six years out.”
She predicted there will be a two-three year transition period of NG and MAX overlap, though she prefers two years. Wyse acknowledged that the 737-based BBJ and P-8A Poseidon could further extend production of the NG even if passenger models are discontinued.
Boeing’s 2012 Current Market Outlook
Randy Tinseth, VP Marketing for Boeing, outlined Boeing’s update for the Current Market Outlook for the 20 years from 2012-2031. Aircraft in the world fleet has nearly tripled from about 6,500 to more than 19,000 today.
(We will post more detail July 5.)
- Fuel prices have forced some regional jets out of the market because they are no longer viable, Tinseth says.
- There will be 13,000km in of high speed rail in China by the end of this year, more than the rest of the world combined.
- By 2020, China will open 97 new airports.
- 60%-80% of travel is tied to GDP and economic demand.
- Passenger travel has historically grown at 5% per year.
- Non-stop, point-to-point, more frequency growing and airplane size is shrinking.
- Expect to see world fleet grow to nearly 40,000 airplanes by 2031. 40% of demand will be for retirements, 60% for growth.
- Replacement market is very, very important for us. 500 retirements last year.
- There will be demand for 940 production freighters.
- China, Asia, Asia-Pacific will grow the fastest. 35% of demand will be here.
- Cargo traffic has been much more volatile because more closely tied to economies. Growth has been steady but has slowed.
- Over next 20 years see demand for 2800 freighters, 940 new, rest conversions. 940 airplanes valued at $250bn.
Q&A
- About Airbus Mobile: I was a salesman and to be successful you have to do three things: it’s about the product and pricing; it’s about people; it’s about your relationship. Your customers are focusing on those things, not the address on your business card. What drives US and North American airlines, it’s about the business case. I don’t see how this drive the business case. You have to ask Airbus about efficiency. They are building airplanes in four different places.
- About the $500bn increase in value over 20 years: We will see some modest up-gauging in single aisle market, from A319/737-700 size to address airport issues to A320/737-800 and will see it go to 737-9/A321. This is driving some of the change. The twin-aisle market sees the strength in the 777-300 size aircraft.
- On the twin-aisle market: it’s split about 50-50 between small twins and large twins, a little heavier toward large twins. Long-term expect shifting up from 787-8 to -9 and -10.
- On Very Large Aircraft: demand down about 1%. Big airplanes are operated by a handful of carriers in a handful of markets. We’ve probably been a little optimistic in this. A380 after 10 years has sold about where we expected (there are 258 sales–editor).