Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Washington State wants Airbus business but this is a big oops
The Washington Aerospace Partnership is a state agency to promote aerospace in Washington.
We’ve written about WAP before, criticizing its membership as totally devoid of any industry representative–it’s all economic development commissions, chambers of commerce and bureaucrats. We think the absence of industry representation is a major defect.
This full page ad in The Seattle Times today illustrates the point. We’re sure our readers will spot why.
Dominic Gates of The Seattle Times certainly did.
Odds and Ends: 777X site; A380 reconfiguration; 777 flashback; PNAA’s 13th annual conference; A350; MC-21
Build 777X “where it makes the most sense:” A Boeing executive, in a CNBC interview, said the 777X would be built “where it makes the most sense.”
CNBC writes that Shephard Hill, president of Boeing International, said, “Honestly, we’re looking within the United States at this point because of the large infrastructure we have there. But again, with the mandate to do it on time, to do it in a quality way, that will drive the decision.”
Meanwhile, Alabama officials revealed they talked with Boeing about locating “some [777X] work” at Boeing’s Huntsville operation. Stories are here and here.
A380 reconfiguration: After our post concerning the secondary market of the Airbus A380 and a figure cited by a lessor that it could cost as much as $20m to reconfigure the airplane (assuming all bells and whistles), we received two emails from readers giving a different perspective.
One wrote that Airbus took the Emirates Airlines specification, which is not as customized as perceived, and outlined three scenarios for reconfiguration.
- Simply change the cabin colors: $600,000 from Airbus and $500,000 for Buyer Furnished Equipment (BFE).
- Change three class to two class, with only the upper deck changing: $3.6m in Airbus costs, $1.6m for BFE.
- High-density, all Y-class, both decks: $4.3m for Airbus costs, $3.5m for BFE.
Another reader wrote that the $20m figure is correct if all existing cabin stuff is tossed and the reconfiguration starts from scratch, but seats and other equipment could be sold to reduce the cost. Going one class, this reader wrote, had a price of between $8m-$10m (slightly higher than that reported by the first reader) and a two class configuration would cost about $5m, roughly the same as noted above.
Flashback on 777 successor: Jon Ostrower, when he was with Flight Global, Tweeted out a flashback down memory lane when we did a podcast with him six years ago, talking about a Boeing 777 successor. We looked pretty smart back then, as it turns out.
PNAA’s 13th Annual Conference: The Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance has released the agenda for its 13th Annual Conference held Feb. 4-6, 2014, in Lynnwood (WA), north of Seattle and south of Everett. Crafted well before the Boeing 777X events of last week, the conference is entitled “What’s Driving Change in the Aerospace Industry”.
Boeing says it will decide within three months where it will build the 777X, or in December or January, the latter just before the conference. Whatever this decision, this specific action will clearly come up at the conference, though it is not specifically a topic on the agenda.
We’re presenting on the State of the Airline Industry on the first day and share a panel on the third day with analysts Michel Merluzeau of G2 Solutions and Richard Aboulafia of The Teal Group. We’ve done this panel each year for several years now, and it’s a free-wheeling discussion of what we’ve heard throughout the conference and events generally.
This conference has now become the largest of its kind on the US West Coast, with nearly 450 attendees this past February. The Big Four airframe OEMs, the Big Three engine OEMs and a host of suppliers and lessors present.
MC-21 program update: ATO.ru, a Russian publication, has this update on the Irkut MC-21 program.
A350-1000: Akbar Al-Baker, CEO of Qatar Airways, is known for his about-faces at a whim, so much so that he has the nickname U-Turn Al. Once a vocal critic of the Airbus A350-1000, he now says it is a great airplane, according to this interview in Gulf Business. He urges Airbus to consider a larger version of the plane.
Emirates urges 777X be built in US: Wall Street Journal
Emirates Airlines has urged Boeing to build the 777X and its components in the US to avoid the issues that bedeviled the 787, according to The Wall Street Journal. (Subscription required.)
“Tim Clark, president of Emirates, said Boeing should assemble the 777X family in its own facilities to better manage the process and deliver the aircraft on time in 2020,” The WSJ wrote.
“‘All we said to [Boeing] was, ‘Please don’t do to 777X what you did to the [787],'” Mr. Clark said in an interview on the sidelines of the Dubai Air Show, adding that outsourcing the manufacture-and-build process to companies in Asia or Europe might mean Boeing loses quality and control of assembly. “Don’t do that to us,” he said,” The WSJ wrote.
“Qatar Airways Chief Executive Akbar Al Akbar similarly expressed a desire that Boeing assemble the 777X at a single U.S. facility. “Frankly, we would rather everything was built in one place, and I think Boeing from the 787 experience have learnt a lesson,” he said in an interview Tuesday,” reported The Journal.
There is broad consensus that Boeing’s Everett plant is the best place to build the 777X, given its experienced workforce, a mature factory and the continuing challenges of the Charleston 787 plant. But Boeing CEO Jim McNerney’s antipathy toward the IAM specifically and the Washington State business climate generally are “wild cards,” a source familiar with the dynamics tells us.
Boeing is entertaining business offers from other states, and is widely reported to be considering locations at its facilities in Utah, California, Texas and Alabama. The Charleston plant is said not to be on the list due to the plant challenges with the 787, but Boeing hasn’t confirmed any of these possibilities.
A380 orders boost backlog but future risk remains
The order by Emirates Airlines for 50 more Airbus A380s had been hinted at for some time, and it is certainly welcome for the backlog. This deal, coupled with the MOU announced at the Paris Air Show for 20 from lessor Doric, expected to be firmed up by year end, adds 70 orders to the long-stalled total count, which was 259 prior to either deal (net of three cancellations from Lufthansa Airlines). This now brings Airbus to 329 orders.
It’s still well short of the 650 orders Airbus expects to snare over the next 20 years from its September 20-year forecast. These expectations are on top of the existing order stream, and a figure that hasn’t changed much since its first Very Large Aircraft forecast in 2000.
(The current forecast is for about 1,300 VLA passenger models; Airbus expects to receive 50% of the market. This is before the 777-9X, barely qualifying as a VLA at a nominal 407 passengers, entered the picture. Up to now, Airbus has been capturing nearly 90% of the VLAP market against Boeing’s 747-8I.)
AIN Online beat us to our plan to assess the future risks for the A380, particularly as it heads into the secondary market, with this analysis. We agree with the broad conclusion that there will be little secondary market opportunity for the airplane beginning in 2020 when the first of Emirates Airlines’ behemoths start coming off lease.
One lessor, who is not an A380 owner, says it will cost about $20m to reconfigure an A380 in a typical three-class layout with the usual bells and whistles. Doric Lease, in an interview with Bloomberg, says Airbus needs to standardize configuration to make re-leasing the giant plane easier.
Boeing in Puget Sound after the IAM 777X vote: bleak, unless something changes
With the rejection last week by the International Association of Machinists Local 751of the Boeing contract offer that would have located the 777X airplane assembly and wing production in Puget Sound (Seattle), the inevitable question arises: What is Boeing’s future here?
Seattle media and state elected officials are worried that if Boeing locates the 777X outside Washington State, and given the toxic relationship between the machinists and Boeing as well as within its own union, that this could be the start of an exodus from the state.
We agree, although we believe it will be a slow, downward spiral, not a rapid exodus–unless something dramatic changes with the current situation.
The chart illustrates our forecast of Boeing’s gradual departure from Puget Sound based on the current set of circumstances.
DXB13 Day 1: Airbus scores big orders, Boeing launches 777X
From the Dubai Air Show, Day 1:
Airbus
Qatar would buy A350-1000 stretch
Boeing
777 Launched: Boeing New Airplane;
Montreal Gazette, reporting from Dubai
Aviation Week: 787 influence on 777X
Boeing leads Airbus after first day
Other news:
Ilyushin Finance targets Middle East
The Seattle Times has a behind-the-scenes article on the divide between IAM 751 and its International headquarters and within IAM 751.
IAE launches Pure V engine plan for V2500s on A320 family and MD-90s
International Aero Engines has launched
Jon Beatty, President of International Aero Engines
a program called Pure V program for the V2500 engine used on the Airbus A320ceo and the Boeing MD-90, leveraging OEM-provided maintenance and parts that will offered extended warranties and potential better residual values.
The announcement was made at the Dubai Air Show 17 Nov. local time.
IAE president Jon Beatty said the project was driven by customer input, particularly that of lessors, who own a large number of A320s powered by the V2500. Lessors in particular are concerned about residual values, which affect lease rates as they re-lease the aircraft after short-to-medium terms at lessees.
“Engines with 100% IAE-approved parts and repairs enhance the on-wing service, fuel economy and residual values,” Beatty told us in an interview.
Beatty said that qualifying in-service engines—and 60% will immediately, and the rest may be retro-fitted—will see improved on-wing time by an estimated 20% after going through the program. A Pure V engine will also see a return to original fuel burn specifications after normal degradation, and these will have about a one-half percentage improvement over non-IAE maintained and serviced V2500s not using IAE OEM parts.
More than 50% of V2500 owners and operators are already signed up to IAE’s power-by-the-hour program, called Fleet Hour Agreement (FHA). Beatty said 80% of the new customers choose FHA.
Non-OEM parts under the Federal Aviation Administration’s Parts Manufacturer Approval program won’t qualify for the Pure V program, extended warranty or other benefits.
For lessors, who own more than 50% of the V2500-powered A320ceos, expect to benefit from higher residual values by being able to pass through this value in their lease rates, Beatty said. Appraisers, who forecast RVs, need to become familiar with the program, and IAE plans a data base they can consult.
Odds and Ends: 787 teething; IAM-777X continues; Boeing in Puget Sound; Dubai Air Show
787 teething issues: Flight Global has this report from the Dubai Air Show in which it quotes Boeing as saying there will be another six months of teething issues on the 787. We hear it will be longer than this.
IAM-777X: These stories will continue for some time. The latest: Reuters has this exclusive interview with IAM International President Tom Buffenbarger, posted Friday. But a Boeing official later denied Buffenbarger’s claim.
Buffenbarger said the IAM won’t make a counter offer; Boeing previously said it has “no plans to re-engage” the IAM. As we noted in our posting Thursday, both sides retreated to their corners in a testosterone posture. Buffenbarger screwed this up. It’s up to him to come up with a counter-proposal.
This from the Dubai Air Show via Twitter:
Boeing exec’s lament quick timing of IAM vote on 777X labour deal, believe members did not “digest” all info completely.
This is more evidence of the completely botched effort. If Boeing is lamenting, then it, too, ought to come back to the bargaining table.
Reuters has this article from Dubai, quoting Ray Conner, CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, saying the ball is now in IAM’s court.
Boeing in Puget Sound: After the IAM vote debacle, the Tacoma News Tribune has a long article (picked up in the Everett Herald) about the future of Boeing’s Frederickson plant, which makes stuff for a variety of 7-Series airplanes. It would have been a participant in the 777X program.
Dubai Air Show: This opens tomorrow; follow on Twitter at #Dxb13 and @Dubaiairshow
Some key articles: