Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Odds and Ends: Scrapping young aircraft; NTSB Battery hearing, Day 2
Aviation Week has a story about the scrapping of relatively young aircraft. There has been a long-running debate over whether the useful lives of aircraft have been shrinking. The focus has been on the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737NG families, though some attention has also been paid to twin-aisle aircraft.
Historically useful lives have been 25-35 years for operation by passenger aircraft before potential cargo conversion, if at all.
With the forthcoming re-engined single-aisles, there has been a lot of speculation that the useful lives will be sharply reduced, and there have been several examples of early scrapping of early-model A320s and some but not as many of 737NGs. Lessors are particularly sensitive to the prospect of shorter useful lives due to the depreciation curve assumptions. Irish lessor Avolon even held an international webcast on the topic. Boeing has published a white paper on it. Both companies argued there has been no change.
Thus, the Aviation Week story is of interest.
Separately, here are a couple of stories following Day 2 of the NTSB hearing on lithium batteries. The hearing on the Japan Air Lines Boeing 787 fire will be April 23-24.
The Seattle Times-a report from Day 2.
NTSB lithium battery forum, Day 1
Here are some links to stories. Day 2 continues today. Webcast at NTSB.gov.
Odds and Ends: Cybersecurity and aviation; lithium-ion batteries; WA worries about SC; Porter Airlines
Cybersecurity threat to aviation: Addison Schonland at AirInsight has been working on a project related to cybersecurity and the threat to aviation. He’s posted this article that raises serious issues.
Lithium-Ion Batteries: On the eve of the NTSB two-day forum on lithium-ion batteries, Reuters has a think-piece about these batteries in general: uses in cars and other products, for example. It’s been a 10-year research project by battery designers. Quite an interesting article.
WA worries about SC: The Seattle Times writes that Washington State officials are worried about the latest expansion by Boeing in South Carolina.
In advance of Porter CSeries order: A lot of Tweeting from an aerospace writer in Canada:
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Source says Porter feels city of toronto and Feds willing to revisit tripartite agreement.
Retweeted by Isaac Alexander -
Unclear at this point where the Porters CSeries will fly from when its delivered in 2016
Retweeted by Isaac Alexander -
Porter Airlines adding Calgary, Vancouver. LA, Miami, and Orlando using CSeries. From where remains the question.
Retweeted by Isaac Alexander -
@scottdeveau Porter is seeking a lift on jet aircraft bans at Billy Bishop and aims to add 180 m on either end of the runway for CSeries
Scott Deveau Typo or Freudian slip? Brendan Kearney @Kearney_Brendan 16m
Now @NikkiHaley‘s comments on #Boring SC growth plan… (1/?)
Brendan Kearney @Kearney_Brendan 13m
@LeehamNews @nikkihaley ha, typo — and one that I fear making. Usually I catch myself when my thumb strays right on the keyboard.
Odds and Ends: Tit for Tat; Lockheed in crosshairs of—Embraer; 787 return to service
Tit for Tat: Airbus announces a big order from LionAir. The next day Boeing announces a big order from RyanAir. Airbus has a big press day for its groundbreaking at Mobile (AL). The next day Boeing announces a $1bn expansion at Charleston.
Lockheed in crosshairs: Embraer is going after Lockheed Martin. Aggressively.
787 Rescheduled: United Airlines put the 787 in its schedule from May 31. The FAA hasn’t cleared the airplane for flight yet, but Boeing has been telling customers to expect the plane’s return to service in May through June.
Washington State Senate budget kills Office of Aerospace; attention turns to House
The Washington State Senate budget adopted last Friday killed funding for the Office of Aerospace, which was created less than a year ago.
The move was driven by the need to find more than $1bn to fund education and the State’s long-running budget shortfalls, brought on by the 2008 global fiscal crisis.
It’s understandable that the Senate, which is controlled by fiscally conservative Republicans and what we call here “Roadkill Democrats” (they’d be called Blue Dog Democrats in Congress), want to make drastic budget changes. The State, which has been controlled by Democrats in the Governor’s Mansion and in both houses of the Legislature, went on a spending binge following the election of Christine Gregoire and Democratic Super Majorities in 2004. The Ds increased spending by 33% on projected 16% increases in revenues. It was wholly irresponsible then and was perpetuated until the fiscal crisis began.
When the current Legislature was being formed, two Roadkill Democrats left their caucus and joined the Republicans in the Senate to form the first GOP control of the Senate since…well, we can’t recall specifically but it may have been around 1996, when we first moved here.
We won’t get into the social cuts of the Republican budget, because that’s not the area we cover in this blog. The move cutting the Office of Aerospace is a big mistake.
Single-Aisle backlog market share between the Big Two
The rivalry between Airbus and Boeing intensified in recent weeks with Airbus landing another major order from a previously exclusive Boeing customer, LionAir. Boeing announced another major order just a day later, Ryanair, retaining exclusivity with this customer.
The market share battle between Airbus and Boeing was fierce and prolonged. The introduction of the A320neo family placed more pressure on Boeing, particularly when it became clear Airbus was going to land American Airlines as a major customer for Current Engine Option and the New Engine Option. Boeing, which had been dismissing the neo as a viable option and dithering about whether to proceed with a new design to replace the 737 NG, found its hand forced. Having no other choice, Boeing launched the MAX, a re-engined version of the 737 NG.
With all the recent orders, we’ve done the math and determined market share for the current generation and re-engined types and sub-types. This data is through March 31 and only includes orders that have been listed as firm contracts, not those that have been announced but not yet firmed up.
Sources are Airbus, Boeing and Ascend Worldwide.
787 battery certification flight plan filed for this morning
Update, 1:30pm PT: The flight test is complete. Boeing issued this statement:
Boeing (NYSE:BA) completed a 787 certification demonstration flight today on line number 86, a Boeing-owned production airplane built for LOT Polish Airlines. Today’s flight marks the final certification test for the new battery system, completing the testing required by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).
Today’s flight departed from Paine Field in Everett, Wash. at 10:39 a.m. Pacific with a crew of 11 onboard, including two representatives from the FAA. The airplane flew for 1 hours and 49 minutes, landing back at Paine Field at 12:28 p.m. Pacific.
The crew reported that the certification demonstration plan was straightforward and the flight was uneventful. The purpose of the flight was to demonstrate that the new battery system performs as intended during normal and non-normal flight conditions.
Boeing will now gather and analyze the data and submit the required materials to the FAA. We expect to deliver all of the materials to the FAA in the coming days. Once we deliver the materials we stand ready to reply to additional requests and continue in dialog with the FAA to ensure we have met all of their expectations.
Original Post:
Boeing scheduled is critical certification flight test for the 787 today.
Boeing’s statement:
Boeing has filed a flight plan to conduct the 787 battery certification demonstration flight today on Line number 86, a Boeing-owned production airplane built for LOT Polish Airlines.
Today’s demonstration flight is the final certification test for the new battery system. The purpose of the test is to demonstrate that the new system performs as intended during normal and non-normal flight conditions.
The flight plan (which is always subject to change) can be viewed via FlightAware, which can also be used to track the airplane’s route, location and progress throughout the flight, at this link: http://flightaware.com/live/flight/BOE272
The flight will take off and land at Paine Field in Everett, Wash. The flight is currently scheduled to depart at approx. 11:00 am Pacific time, but is subject to change. The flight is expected to be approximately 2 hours in length.
We plan to provide updates via Twitter (@BoeingAirplanes). A statement will be distributed to the media via e-mail after the flight is completed.
Separately, Boeing had this to say about advance preparations to return the airplane to service:
We have formed a series of AOG teams to help our customers implement the improvements once certified. One of the teams has already deployed but will not perform battery work until the solutions are certified. Details about the AOG teams are considered proprietary.
Our Aircraft-on-Ground Services team (AOG team) is prepared and equipped to support the implementation of approved modifications to the in-service fleet of 787s. The content of their work packages is driven by our customers’ requests. No work is being done on the battery systems at this time as we are still working through the certification process. AOG teams provide the unique capability for an on-site, comprehensive and integrated modification to airplanes. As always, the safety of those who fly aboard Boeing airplanes is our highest priority.
Reuters quotes Ray LaHood, US Secretary of Transportation (his department oversees the FAA), as saying Boeing has a good solution to the battery issues.