Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 20. May 2, 2025
- Supplier Howmet exceeds expectations despite tariffs May 1, 2025
- Airbus 1Q2025 results: So far, so good, but US tariffs make future results unpredictable May 1, 2025
- Does an Airbus A220-500 need a new wing and engines? May 1, 2025
- Teamsters, Boeing have a new contract April 29, 2025
McNerney on unions and other stuff; where will 777X be built?
Note to Readers wishing to comment: See this article and our Comment #35 and be forewarned.
Boeing CEO Jim McNerney is cited in the Puget Sound Business Journal on labor unions, China and other stuff from his appearance at an aerospace summit.
In the article, McNerney tries to take a moderate stance on unions. But just this week Boeing announced it is moving SPEEA and other union jobs out of Puget Sound, here and here. The moves resulted in a blast from Seattle Times columnist Jon Talton here, and our response here.
Production is booming in Seattle’s Puget Sound, but it’s clear to us that Boeing is engaged in a long-term strategy to build up Charleston as a major, second production plant–not just a 787 production line. We see Charleston-as-to-Seattle as Hamburg-is-to-Toulouse some day. We don’t see Everett shutting down (at least not in our lifetime) because there is too much there. We think Renton is more at risk, once there is a New Small Airplane finally designed to replace the 737–but this is well into the next decade.
The question over where the 777X will be be built is, to us, a little more vexing. Logic says build it here, given the similarities between the baseline 777 and the derivative 777X. This is no different in principal than the 737NG and the 737 MAX–it would have been silly to build it elsewhere.
But McNerney’s comments about labor in the Business Journal notwithstanding, the anti-union sentiment at Boeing Corporate is obvious for all to see.
The future of the 747-8 is in jeopardy. Boeing said as much in its 2012 10K:
Flaws escape FAA certification
Bloomberg has a good story looking beyond the Boeing 787 issues at the FAA’s reliance on industry to certify airplanes. The story details a number of cases where flaws crept through the system, leading to deaths–a circumstance, of course, that did not happen with the 787.
We have written a couple of posts about the relationship between the FAA and industry in response to focus following the 787 battery issues. We pointed out this relationship is nothing new.
The Bloomberg piece is well worth reading.
Reuters: 787 ETOPS threatened in resumption of service
Reuters reports that the Boeing 787’s ETOPS certification may be questionable when the FAA authorizes a return to service.
787 test flight plan filed for today
From Boeing:
We have just filed a flight plan to conduct a 787 functional check flight today on Line number 86, a Boeing-owned production airplane built for LOT Polish Airlines.
The flight plan (which is always subject to change) can be viewed via FlightAware, which can also be used to track the airplane’s route, location and progress throughout the flight, at this link: http://flightaware.com/live/flight/BOE272
The flight is a normal Boeing production check flight intended to validate that all systems function as designed. During a functional check flight, crews cycle the landing gear and operate all the backup systems, in addition to performing electrical system checks from the flight profile. Across airplane programs, more than 600 functional check flights were completed in 2012.
Following the completion of the functional check flight, we will analyze the data from the flight and prepare for certification ground and flight demonstration in the coming days. The plan is to conduct one certification demonstration flight. That flight, which will take plan on Line 86, will demonstrate that the new battery system performs as intended during flight conditions.
The flight will take off and land at Paine Field in Everett, Wash. The flight is currently scheduled to depart at approx. 11:00 am Pacific time, but is subject to change. The flight is expected to be approximately 2 hours in length.
For those media located in the Puget Sound area, Boeing will not be providing access to the airplane or our facilities before or after the flight. The Future of Flight has reserved its rooftop deck for use by media as a viewing location for photos and video of the airplane’s takeoff and landing.
We plan to provide updates and photos via Twitter (@BoeingAirplanes) and will send a brief media statement via e-mail after the flight is completed.
Odds and Ends: Independents like battery fix; 787 test flight today?; JAL and A350; PAL and 777X
Back to the 787 batteries: The Seattle Times had this story Saturday in which it talked with independent experts who like the battery fix proposed by Boeing. The Time also reported that the first of two test flights might occur today.
JAL may buy A350s: Japan Air Lines may buy 20 Airbus A350s, according to this news report. The aircraft would replace Boeing 777s, according to this report.
Hawaiian firms A321neo order: It was announced in January as an MOU and now Hawaiian Airlines has firmed up its order for 20 Airbus A321neos for use between the Islands and the US West Coast.
Philippine Air Lines may buy 777x: PAL may buy the forthcoming Boeing 777X, looking at the 400-passenger 9X version.
Bombardier investors’ day: CSeries focus
We’re pretty tired of the Boeing 787 stuff, but it’s a story that simply is a daily occurrence. So it’s with some relief we have something else to talk about today.
Bombardier held an investors’ day today (March 21). Here are some links and documents. The day was for all of Bombardier, but we’re just focusing on Aerospace.
Aviation Week has this article from the March 7 CSeries “reveal.”
Here’s a link to a 43 page PDF (PPT) presentation about the Aerospace division. This includes Business Aircraft and the entire commercial line.
One graph shows the current line-up of single-aisle aircraft (click to enlarge):
BBD has been under cash flow and stock price pressure in recent years, and terms this year as a “turning point.” The first flight of the CS100 is scheduled for June; officials say the end of June but we believe they will move heaven and earth to have the plane flying by the Paris Air Show mid-month.
BBD hopes to have power-on for the CS100 Flight Test Vehicle 1 (FTV 1) this week or next. Fly-by-wire testing has been underway this week.
At the investors’ day, Ben Boehm, VP Strategy and Business Development, said much of the up-gauging we’re seeing in aircraft selection today is in the 150-210 seat segment. Within the 100-149 seat sector, Boehm says BBD has yet to lose a competition to Airbus or Boeing.
Philippe Poutissou, VP Marketing, said that as an airline gets to 20 or 30 aircraft, fleet commonality benefits diminish. The biggest aircraft is the benefit of pooling and spares. “As you get into the 20s, 30s and 40s, the incremental benefit of commonality gets quite small.”
Readers skeptical of detailed Boeing plans to fix the 787 battery issues
Readers aren’t convinced that Boeing has turned the corner on the planned 787 battery fixes detailed last week in two press conferences.
The results come as some surprise to us. Despite some messaging we thought fell short, we felt overall Boeing outlined a pretty strong set of fixes that were done probably in concert with the FAA Seattle office. We published polling Monday; here are the results as of this morning. These are actually worse than our polling a month ago, when readers were evenly split whether they would resume flying the 787 when it returns to service.
Clearly, Boeing and the airlines have a job to do with public perception to restore confidence in the airplane.
These polls admittedly are not scientific.
Does Boeing have good solutions to the 787 battery issues?
| Answer | Percent | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| No, Boeing still hasn’t gone far enough | 55% | ||
| Yes, the press conferences outlined good solutions | 28% | ||
| I don’t know | 17% |
Having heard or read the details, will you fly the 787 when it returns to service?
| Answer | Percent | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes, I now have confidence in the 787 and the solution | 34% | ||
| No, I still want to wait 1-2 years for proof | 51% | ||
| Maybe–I’m not sure | 15% |
When will the 787 return to revenue service?
| Answer | Percent | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks, like Boeing thinks | 7% | ||
| May | 23% | ||
| June | 25% | ||
| July | 16% | ||
| August-December 2013 | 29% |
KING 5 News (Seattle, NBC) reported that the 787 test flight planned for yesterday did not happen, but had no explanation. An aerospace engineer we asked said, “I would gather that since this is a “one shot to get it right” flight, BA is being rather overly cautious. So I imagine it doesn’t take much for them to cancel a flight and wait for optimal conditions.”
Timing seems critical, however, if Boeing is to meet its goal of returning the 787 to service soon.
Reuters had this yesterday:
Boeing last week unveiled a new battery system and predicted the 787 would fly again within weeks rather than months.
Asked whether Boeing was presenting a best-case scenario, Osamu Shinobe, the architect of All Nippon Airways’ strategy to put the fuel-efficient 787 at the centre of the airline’s fleet planning, said, “That’s what we understand it to be.”
“The problem is we don’t know how long the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) will take to finish its checks (on the new battery system),” he said in an interview.
For Boeing to meet its target, Shinobe explained the plane maker needs to complete certification testing this week, and gain quick FAA approval followed by an airworthiness directive soon after. It would then have to transport all the parts and equipment to 787s parked around the world to begin installing the new batteries. Boeing has said that could take a week per plane.
A side note: Weather conditions this week in the Seattle area are forecast to be pretty abysmal, with sometimes heavy rains and high winds. Whether this will be a factor for the test flight is unknown.
Bloomberg has this today:
Norwegian Air is among airlines affected by the idling of the global Dreamliner fleet on Jan. 16 in the wake of incidents with lithium-ion batteries. While Boeing has proposed a fix, it hasn’t given new delivery dates for planes the Oslo-based company should get from April, Kjos said in an interview.
.
“There’ll be a delay that hits us on the first two aircraft,” Kjos said. Norwegian Air has leased two Airbus SAS A340s to provide cover, one for two months, the other for three, during which time the 787s should arrive, he said.
This suggests NAS doesn’t expect its 787s until June or July at the earliest.