Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 27. June 20, 2025
- Pontifications: A Personal Note June 19, 2025
- Airbus books 142 firm orders as Boeing retracts from the Paris Air Show June 19, 2025
- AIN Media Group Agrees to Acquire Leeham News & Analysis June 17, 2025
- Five for Five: Air India crash points to systemic problems at Boeing that CEO Ortberg must fix June 15, 2025
The WSJ on Steve Hazy
We’re still on hiatus, but we could not resist this piece of art from the Wall Street Journal illustrating Steven Udvar-Hazy’s return to the public stock market today for his Air Lease Corp.
The Wall Street Journal article is, at the moment, for paid subscribers only but here is an LA Times article that gives some background.
Separately, Aspire Aviation has a good analysis of the COMAC C919 and its competitive threat to Boeing and Airbus.
Going on hiatus
Due do a number of special projects with near-term deadlines, this column will be a hiatus for a while. In the meantime, please see our affiliate, AirInsight, for commentary and news.
Advancing NEO puts pressure on Boeing
Here’s the last of three stories on the Boeing 737, the A320neo and the new Boeing airplane.
Boeing shelved 737RE–new airplane appears to be shelved for now, too
It’s stunning news: Boeing may be shelving, at least for now, the prospect of a new airplane widely anticipated to be announced at the Paris Air Show.
Boeing previously shelved the prospective 737RE (Re-Engine).
Buckingham Research, a boutique New York investment bank with a good track record of forecasting Boeing moves, issued a note today in which it said Boeing is rethinking the new airplane. Buckingham writes:
Boeing’s message changes on 737NG v A320neo
Here’s an article we did on changing messaging at Boeing about the 737 and the A320neo.
| Date: | 11/04/2011 10:07 |
| Source: | Commercial Aviation Online |
| Location: | Seattle |
| By: | Scott Hamilton |
Boeing’s messaging on the 737 against the Airbus A320neo has changed subtly in recent weeks. Does this signal a slight shift in Boeing’s intentions whether to proceed with a new airplane in the 737/757 class?
Boeing dismisses the business case for the A320neo, until recently saying the 737-800NG has only a 2-3% cash operating cost deficit today versus the projected NEO economics. By the time the A320neo entered service what was originally announced as Spring 2016, Boeing officials were confident that they could improve the economics of the 737-800 by at least that amount, retaining a fleet advantage of one engine type and a lighter airplane.
But Boeing’s message has shifted slightly.
Southwest fatigue failure likely to have little effect on 737 values
Here’s an article on values we did for Commercial Aviation Online:
| Date: | 11/04/2011 08:04 |
| Source: | Commercial Aviation Online |
| Location: | Seattle |
| By: | Scott Hamilton |
The in-flight fuselage rupture caused by metal fatigue is, in the end, likely to have little affect on Boeing 737 Classic values, predicts Fred Klein, president of Aviation Specialists.
Odds and Ends: Entertaining recap on Leahy and NEO
1. Entertaining look at Leahy and A320neo
Max Kingsley-Jones, editor of Airline Business, has this amusing take on Airbus COO John Leahy and Leahy’s view of his latest toy, the A320neo.
Last week we received a couple of inquiries and comments about the investment Airbus has made in the NEO and whether this will be worth it. Figures publicly issued by Airbus were that the investment in NEO is about $1.5bn.
What is not discussed but which is widely known within insider circles is that the engine makers, Pratt & Whitney and CFM, are footing most of the bill. We don’t know the split between the engine OEMs and Airbus, but we understand the engine share is not insignificant. Thus, the actual financial risk to Airbus is, by R&D standards, pretty small. We remarked to one who inquired that NEO will probably have one of the best ROIs for Airbus of any program.
Aviation Week’s Robert Wall has this story about the NEO, emerging from the Airbus 320neo briefing last week.
Airbus, the NEO program and an interview with John Leahy
Airbus held a media day today about the A320neo; we were scheduled to go to Toulouse for this event but circumstances required we stay in Seattle, so our partner at AirInsight, Addison Schonland, made the journey.
He obtained an exclusive interview with John Leahy, COO Customers. Here is his report. Addison will have additional reports later in the week.
FAA 737 inspection AD covers 175 jets
Note: Dominic Gates of The Seattle Times has a particularly thorough piece looking at this incident. The Wall Street Journal also has a good story on the topic. The New York Times has this story.
Update, April 5: Flightblogger has this story about how the 737s subject to the AD were identified. As Jon Ostrower closes his piece, he asks what the design changes were. KIRO TV (Seattle) told us that Boeing told it design changes were made to strengthen that area of the airplane.
Original Post:
The FAA said late April 4 that it will issue an airworthiness directive April 5 requiring immediate inspections of 175 Boeing 737-300/400/500 aircraft, following the Southwest Airlines in-flight decompression April 1. Eighty of the aircraft are in the US. Only those with more than 30,000 cycles are affected.
The FAA press release is here.
Other countries with reciprocity airworthiness agreements with the US–such as Germany, for example–will follow the FAA’s AD. Countries without airworthiness agreements with the US aren’t required to follow the FAA AD, and it’s unclear how many aircraft are involved.
Odds and Ends: Three drivers for Bombardier; PW GTF gains momentum
1. JP Morgan looks at Bombardier
Aerospace analyst Joe Nadol has an interesting take on Bombardier and the next 12 months. Nadol begins with, “We believe Bombardier may be better positioned now than at any time in the 10+ years we’ve followed the stock,” and continues:
Three Important BBD Drivers: 1) CSeries, 2) CSeries, 3) CSeries. With the business jet and train businesses both poised for solid earnings growth, the CSeries is now clearly set as the key likely driver of the stock. There are two primary issues here. The first is demand, and we believe the program needs to start racking up more orders this year, even by the Paris Air Show in June. We believe there is a high level of interest, and we are fairly confident Bombardier will sell more aircraft. The partnership with Comac that Bombardier announced last week seems to foreshadow meaningful Chinese orders. Bombardier also has nearly $12 bil in financing for CSeries aircraft available from Chinese sources. The second issue is execution. Management noted that Bombardier still expects to fly the aircraft next year and also highlighted some recently achieved milestones for the engine. However, Flight reported in recent weeks that the date for first flight may have slipped by a few months into next fall, so the program does appear to be experiencing at least the normal level of fits and starts. Thus far, the CSeries appears on track overall, but execution obviously remains a major overhang given the complexity of the program and the well-known problems the industry has had meeting cost and schedule targets in recent years.