Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 25. June 6, 2025
- New RISE powerplant benefits from decades of GE research and development June 5, 2025
- Engine makers emphasizing durability, reliability June 4, 2025
- Boeing CEO: Lessons learned are key to certification of 737-7/10 and 777X June 2, 2025
- Digital twin is a key to JetZero’s hopes for Blended Wing Body entry June 2, 2025
Analyzing Boeing’s 90-Day Plan
Subscription Required
By the Leeham News Team
Analysis
June 3, 2024, © Leeham News: There is no timetable for Boeing to gain approval to boost production rates of the 737 MAX. And there is no timetable for the beleaguered company to regain “ticketing” authority for certification of its 737s or 787s. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) will be calling the shots indefinitely.
Boeing last week presented the FAA with its plan to improve safety. The long PowerPoint, said FAA Administrator Mike Whitaker in a press conference on Thursday, wasn’t released to the public. But press releases from the FAA and Boeing, and an 11-page Executive Summary released by the manufacturer, were in many ways recitations of what’s already been done.
“All those highlighted bullet points posted below were all being done when I worked as a delivery manager 14 years ago,” a retired Boeing employee emailed LNA after reviewing the Boeing press release and Executive Summary.
“Eliminate defects? They’ve been saying that for 100 years. Of course, we want zero defects. The KPIs are nothing new. Been there done that. Nothing’s changed. Nothing.”
KPI stands for Key Performance Indicators. Boeing, and Whitaker, highlighted these in statements. There are six KPIs:
- Employee proficiency measures share of employees who are deemed proficient in core skills.
- Notice of Escape (NoE) rework hours measures time performing rework in Boeing’s final assembly facilities to address non-conforming work from its fabrication division and external suppliers.
- Supplier shortages measures shortages per day from Boeing’s fabrication division and external suppliers.
- Rework hours per airplane measures time spent performing rework in Boeing’s final assembly facilities.
- Travelers at factory rollout measures unfinished jobs traveling from Final Assembly
- Ticketing performance measures quality escapes per ticketed airplane prior to delivery.
The Boeing 90 day executive summary to the FAA: An analysis
Subscription Required
By the Leeham News Team
June 3, 2024, © Leeham News: Boeing and the Federal Aviation Administration last week released summaries of the company’s plan to fix its safety shortcomings following the Jan. 5 accident of Alaska Airlines Flight 1282.
That’s the day a 10-week-old 737-9 MAX saw a door plug blow out at 16,000 ft on take-off from Portland (OR). Nobody died but there were some injuries and damage throughout the cabin and the cockpit occurred. The flight crew made an emergency landing at Portland.
Following this accident, the FAA on Feb. 29 gave Boeing 90 days to come up with yet another plan to address safety and production failures. (Boeing developed plans after the 2018/19 737-8 MAX crashes that killed 346 people.)
In a three-hour meeting on May 31, Boeing CEO David Calhoun and other senior executives outline its latest plan. The FAA’s press release afterward largely was a reaffirmation that it will hold Boeing’s feet to the fire until it is satisfied the safety culture at Boeing changes. There is no timeline for Boeing to implement changes—at least none that was announced.
Boeing released an 11-page Executive Summary that largely outlined steps it has taken to improve safety, and which ones continue. The detailed PowerPoint presentation given to the FAA was not released. Through a spokesperson, the FAA declined to make FAA Administrator Mike Whitaker available for an interview.
A key element of the go-forward plan is a requirement by the FAA that a voluntary Safety Management System (SMS) is now mandatory.
The FAA and Boeing statements released last week drew immediate criticism for lack of detail, repetitive nature of steps already taken, and—given the steps taken in 2019 and 2020—why this is necessary today.
LNA’s news team, which includes former Boeing employees whose duties included safety, reviewed the information announced last week. This is the analysis.
The all-important cabin. Part 2
Subscription required
By Bjorn Fehrm
May 30, 2024, © Leeham News: We will do an article series about the all-important cabin and its seating for an airliner. The cabin layout and its comfort are the most important part of an airliner for the passenger. For an airline it’s its face to the customer.
We will look at the different types of cabins used and how these use the airliner’s real estate, what the cost is, and what the weight is. With the weight, we can also predict how different cabins affect the aircraft’s performance.
Summary:
- The configuration of the cabin has a large influence on total seating, weight, and cost.
- The relationships change up to 500%.
Big hurdles for COMAC to become serious challenger to Airbus, Boeing
Subscription Required
By Scott Hamilton
May 27, 2024, © Leeham News: A flurry of orders by China’s Big Three airlines finally began to balance announced deals for the COMAC C-919 mainline jet.
Until the recent orders from Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern, the vast number of the announced transactions were concentrated among Chinese lessors. The imbalance was not a good thing.
Airbus and Boeing prefer speculative orders by lessors amounting to 25% to perhaps 35% of the order book. (Lessors in recent decades often accounted for 40% to 50% of the in-service fleet, but the differences were from sale/leasebacks of orders originally placed by airlines.)
Boeing and Airbus have different views toward lessors. Airbus, especially under then-Chief Commercial Officer John Leahy, viewed lessors as an extension of the Airbus marketing arm. Lessors broadened Airbus’ market penetration, especially during the early years of the A320’s entry into service.
On the other hand, Boeing viewed lessors as a necessary evil, preferring to deal with a select few rather than a large number. Both viewed lessors to some degree as competitors to direct sales.
Before the Big Three orders, COMAC’s tally was around 760+ for the C919. More than 70% of the announced orders were for Chinese lessors. No lessor outside China was a customer and only Indonesia’s Trans Nusa (partly owned by Chinese lessor CALC) was a customer outside China.
Following the Big Three orders, about 46% of the orders are from airlines—a much better mix than before but still overweighted with lessors.
With Airbus’ A320 family sold out into the 2030 decade and Boeing’s MAX production and delivery schedules in disarray, what alternatives do customers have to the Big Two OEMs? COMAC is the most likely, but the challenges are immense.
COMAC’s challenges
COMAC has big challenges ahead if it wants to become a major global player in commercial aviation.
- Gaining credibility for the C919 inside and outside China.
- Economic competitiveness to the A320neo and 737 MAX.
- Ramping up production.
- Global product support.
- Geopolitical concerns.
The all-important cabin. Part 1
Subscription required
By Bjorn Fehrm
May 23, 2024, © Leeham News: We will do an article series about the all-important cabin and its seating for an airliner. The cabin layout and its comfort are the most important parts of an airliner for the passenger.
Most of the time, the traveler doesn’t know what type of aircraft he is flying on, but he will have a clear understanding of the cabin and whether it meets his expectations.
The cabin is where the airline can expose its branding and set the flight experience for the passenger. It’s thus an area that is updated to new cabin concepts for the fleet more often today than 10 years ago, especially for mainline carriers.
The cabin is also important in evaluating airliners, as the characteristics of the aircraft (fuel consumption, operational costs) are evaluated per seat. OEMs have become experts in maximizing the seating of their aircraft to gain an advantage during an evaluation. Sometimes, in a non-transparent way. We will explain the typical tricks and how to guarantee an apples-to-apples comparison when evaluating airliners.
Summary:
- The cabin and its seats mean different things to a passenger, airline, and evaluation expert.
- We go through the different priorities, and how they affect the end product.
A350-1000 or 777-8? Part 2
Subscription required
By Bjorn Fehrm
May 16, 2024, © Leeham News: We are doing an article series comparing the capabilities of the Airbus A350-1000 and the Boeing 777X. We have looked at the A350-1000 versus the 777-9 and started comparing the history and capabilities of the 777-8 versus the A350-1000 last week.
Now, we use our Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM) to fly the aircraft on a typical route and compare their performance.
Summary:
- The A350-1000 and the latest 777-8 definition is a closer payload-range match than the A350-1000 and 777-9.
- Passenger and cargo capabilities are similar. The economic comparison will be determined by maintenance costs for the engines.
Airbus’ A350-1000 or Boeing’s 777-8? Part 1
Subscription required
By Bjorn Fehrm
May 9, 2024, © Leeham News: We are doing an article series comparing the capabilities of the Airbus A350-1000 and the Boeing 777X series. We started with the 777-9, the larger model. Now, we continue with the shorter 777-8, an aircraft closer in size to the A350-1000.
The 777-8 was originally launched in a shorter version together with the 777-9. Then, it went very quiet around the 777-8, with some analysts speculating that the passenger version would not be done. The 777X freighter, the 777-8F, was launched in January 2022. It became a bit longer than the 777-8. This now forms the final definition of the 777-8.
Summary:
- The comparison of the A350-1000 and the 777-8 is comparing the longer-narrower versus the shorter-wider.
- Which is the best? We use Leeham’s Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM) to find out.
A350-1000 or 777-9? Part 4
Subscription required
By Bjorn Fehrm
May 2, 2024, © Leeham News: We are doing an article series comparing the capabilities of the Airbus A350-1000 and the Boeing 777-9. We looked at the development history of the aircraft and then their capability and fuel economics.
We could see that the 777-9 is trailing the A350-1000 in payload range, partly because we compare the base version of the 777-9 with a further developed A350-1000. Now, we investigate what the 777-9 performance would be should we include a typical future development of the Maximum TakeOff Weight (MTOW).
Summary:
- The A350-1000 has a clear payload-range advantage over the standard 777-9.
- With an in-service Maximum TakeOff Weight (MTOW) development like the A350-1000, the difference is reduced.
Boeing Financial Analysis – Inventory Q1 2024
Subscription Required
By the Leeham News team
April 29, 2024, © Leeham News: The Boeing Co (BA) released its financial results on April 24 for the first quarter of this year. BA relies heavily on Program Accounting to determine what amount of expenses are to be deducted against income, which is a major feature of the system.
The company also reveals the latest information about deferred program balances. This is closely related to Program Accounting.
A Quick Primer
Boeing describes program accounting in its financial statements:
Boeing Commercial Airplanes (BCA) develops, produces, and markets commercial jet aircraft principally to the commercial airline industry worldwide. Revenue on commercial aircraft contracts is recognized at the point in time when an aircraft is completed and accepted by the customer.
With respect to each of our commercial aircraft programs, inventoriable production costs (including overhead), program tooling and other nonrecurring costs, and routine warranty costs are accumulated and charged as cost of sales by program instead of by individual units or contracts.
Source: Boeing Financial Statements
As such, expenses reported for the sale of aircraft during the reporting period are not what was paid, but what BA estimates the average cost will be over the remaining orders and aircraft to be sold. Any overages are noted as an increase in Deferred Production Costs and are held in Inventory.
A350-1000 or 777-9? Part 3
Subscription required
By Bjorn Fehrm
April 25, 2024, © Leeham News: We are doing an article series comparing the capabilities of the Airbus A350-1000 and the Boeing 777-9. We looked at the development history of the aircraft and compared their size and payload capacity.
Now, we use our Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM) to fly the aircraft on a typical route and compare their performance. We also look at their stage of development and the potential for future upgrades inherent in the design.
Summary:
- The A350-1000 has got its Maximum TakeOff Weight (MTOW) increased four times since entry into service.
- The latest MTOW hike to 322t gives the A350 a clear payload-range advantage over the 777-9. Any increase in the 777-9’s MTOW will have to come after type certification.