Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Boeing captures 33% of single-aisle sector, maintains big lead for wide-bodies
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By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 2, 2026, © Leeham News: Boeing’s 2011 decision to launch another derivative of the 737, a slow response to the Airbus A321neo, and the series of crises involving the 737 MAX beginning on March 10, 2019, caused a dramatic drop in market share that places Boeing at a distant No. 2 to Airbus.
The total program orders give Airbus a 54% share of the market for the A320neo family to Boeing’s 33% for the MAX. Adding the A220 into Airbus’ share, the European company has captured 58% of the single aisle market, an analysis of data from the companies as of Dec. 5 reveals.
China’s COMAC C919 captures 7% of the single-aisle market, according to data analyzed from Cirium and other sources. Embraer, with its two-class 100-seat E190-E2 and 120-seat E195-E2, captures a mere 2% of the 100-240 seat sector.
Russia’s Sukhoi MC-21 is not included in this analysis because the market is closed to Airbus, Boeing, and Embraer due to international sanctions on Russia due to the Ukraine war.
New policy for Reader Comments on LNA
Jan. 1, 2026, © Leeham News: We have implemented a change for accepting Reader Comments. Due to a small group of readers who consistently fail to observe Reader Comment Rules, despite warnings and in some cases suspensions, all Comments are held for moderator review before publication. Any violations in the Reader Comment rules found during moderation may result in editing before publication or rejection of the comment.
Publication of Comments will be delayed, pending how quickly the review is accomplished and the time zones of the commenter.
“Rise and Fall of Boeing and the Way Back” picked by Royal Aeronautical Society as a top book for Christmas
By Scott Hamilton
My book, “The Rise and Fall of Boeing and the Way Back”, has been named as one of its top picks of aviation books by the Royal Aeronautical Society for Christmas 2025.
“Following on from his previous Air Wars, which looked at Airbus vs Boeing rivalry, aviation journalist and analyst Scott Hamilton brings commercial aerospace up to date with a look at the rollercoaster ride that has been Boeing’s fortunes over recent years. How did a brand that personified American engineering excellence become so distrusted by customers, politicians, and even the general public? And more important – what are the ways back from this?” The RAS wrote.
This is the second time one of my books has been so named. (I’ve only written two books.) The first, “Air Wars, the Global Combat Between Airbus and Boeing”, was chosen when it was published in 2021.
“Rise and Fall” continues the story begun with “Air Wars.”
“Rise and Fall” may be purchased here.
“Air Wars” may be purchased here.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year
Ilulissat, Greenland, on Scott Hamilton’s holiday at the beginning of a cruise through the Northwest Passage.
Dec. 23, 2025, © Leeham News: Merry Christmas and Happy New Year from the Leeham News and AIN Media Group.
Barring breaking news, LNA begins its holiday vacation today. We will return on Jan. 2, 2026, with the first in a six week long series of Outlook 2026.
Mammoth files Motion to Dismiss Precision trade secret theft lawsuit
Dec. 23, 2025, © Leeham News: Mammoth Freighters yesterday filed a Motion to Dismiss a trade secret theft lawsuit filed in October by Precision Aircraft Solutions, the parent of two passenger aircraft-to-freighter conversion companies.
Precision’s subsidiaries convert Boeing 757s and Airbus A321s to freighters. Mammoth converts Boeing 777-200LRs and 777-300ERs to freighters. Mammoth is awaiting certification of the -200LRs from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The -300ER trails the -200LRF P2F program.
Mammoth was co-founded by Bill Wagner, an aerospace engineer who performed the engineering for Precision’s 757 P2F program when he was a minority partner in Precision Aircraft Solutions, the subsidiary that launched the effort. Wagner left Precision and, after several years unsuccessfully pursuing other P2F concepts, co-founded Mammoth. His company performed engineering for Mammoth.
Precision Aircraft Solutions alleged in its October lawsuit that Mammoth, via Wagner, improperly took trade secrets developed during the 757 program and elements that migrated to the A321 P2F program operated by a separate subsidiary and applied them to Mammoth’s 777 program.
Mitigating mounting pressures in the global supply chain
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By Charlotte Bailey
Michael Haidinger, president of Boeing Germany. Credit: Leeham News, Charlotte Bailey.
Dec. 22, 2025, © Leeham News, Hamburg: “In today’s aerospace environment, which is marked by workforce challenges, evolving technologies, geopolitical risk, financial pressures, and industry consolidation, our supply chain deserves not just attention but requires true partnership,” says Dr. Michael Haidinger, president of Boeing Germany, Central and Eastern Europe.
“Over the last few years, [the global supply chain] has carried a tremendous load.”
Speaking at December 2025’s Aviation Forum in Hamburg, Haidinger acknowledged that the pressures present throughout a complex ecosystem continue to evolve. Recognizing that “integrating stability across the aerospace value chain is essentially the foundation of our long-term success,” the industry is nevertheless having to place renewed focus on inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainty as it looks to bolster its ongoing resilience.
For Boeing, this includes “working more transparently than ever with [its] suppliers” through a monthly supplier brief, sharing details of production plans, key performance indicators, and any changes that could impact planned production. “Transparency builds trust, and trust brings alignment,” he urged.
Boeing seeks ICAO exemption for 777-200LRF to offset 777-8F delays, MD-11F grounding
Dec. 19, 4:15pm CST: Updated with Boeing comment.
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 19, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing has asked the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to grant an exemption to the 2017 ICAO fuel efficiency rules that mean an end to production of the 777-200LRF freighter on Dec. 31, 2027.
Boeing seeks approval by May 1 next year.
“The requested relief will allow Boeing to meet anticipated customer demand and support the substantial public interest in the sustained transportation of air cargo prior to the 777-8F entering service. This petition therefore requests exemption of a total quantity of 35 777F airplanes until achievement of 777-8F first delivery and entry into service,” Boeing wrote in its filing today with the FAA.
FedEx is among the large users of the Boeing 777F. The airplane is scheduled to go out of production on Dec. 31, 2027, due to international regulations. Boeing has asked for an exemption to continue production. Credit: Fed Ex.
“Additional 777Fs are needed after January 1, 2028, to maintain an uninterrupted supply of large freighters to the market prior to the introduction of the 777-8F,” Boeing wrote. The company asked the FAA to extend the exemption outside the US.
Continued certification delays for the new generation 777X, including the 777-8F freighter, are the reason. Certification has been moved to a goal of 2026. Entry into service (EIS) of the passenger 777-9, the lead of the family, is now planned for 2027. EIS for the 777-8F has a goal of 2029, but some customers already believe this won’t happen until 2030. EIS of the passenger 777-8 follows the freighter by a year.
The 777-9 was supposed to enter service in 1Q2020, with the 777-8P two years later and the freighter two years after that. EIS for the freighter was moved up to be second once the FAA agreed to adopt the 2017 ICAO emission standards. The standards mean the end of production of the Boeing 767-300ERF and the 777-200LRF by the end of 2027.
Bjorn’s Corner: Faster aircraft development. Part 21. Certification Implementation.
By Bjorn Fehrm and Henry Tam
December 19, 2025, ©. Leeham News: We do a series about ideas on how the long development times for large airliners can be shortened. New projects talk about cutting development time and reaching certification and production faster than previous projects.
The series will discuss the typical development cycles for an FAA Part 25 aircraft, called a transport category aircraft, and what different ideas there are to reduce the development times.
We will use the Gantt plan in Figure 1 as a base for our discussions. We have concluded the articles about flight tests with the aircraft. Now we revisit the Certification subject and look at how we can show compliance with requirements and work our way to a Type Certificate. We are at the end part of the Testing and Certification phase in our Program Plan in Figure 1.
Figure 1. A generic new Part 25 airliner development plan. Source: Leeham Co. Click to see better.
** Special thanks to Andrew Telesca for helping with this article **
The state of alternative propulsion aircraft? Part 5.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
December 18, 2025, © Leeham News: In our series about alternative propulsion aircraft, last week we looked at the energy consumption and range of a typical nine-seater battery-electric commuter aircraft using our Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM).
We could see that the useful range for this aircraft was short, even when using the full 19,000lb Maximum TakeOff Weight (MTOW) to give the battery the maximum size and using VFR flight rules. Under IFR flight rules, the commuter was not usable with available batteries this side of 2030.
Figure 1. Our battery-electric commuter was similar in design to the Tecnam P2012 nine-seater commuter. Source: Tecnam.
When a project discovers these constraints (which often happen several years into the project, as upstarts don’t have competent aircraft performance models that handle energy consumption for different phases of flight), they start looking at Hybrid architectures.
We do the same. Once again, our model will help us to predict performance, range, operational economics, and also production costs (as a hybrid is a more complex aircraft than a battery electric one).
Deutsche Aircraft: supply chain resilience for a new era of production
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By Charlotte Bailey
Deutsche Aircraft is resurrecting the D328 turboprop as the D328eco, but with five other roles collectively called the D328MR (Multi-Role). Credit: Deutsche Aircraft.
Dec. 17, 2025, © Leeham News, Hamburg: As supply chain pressures continue to bite across the aerospace industry, smaller OEMs find themselves presented with additional opportunities. Speaking at December 2025’s Hamburg Aviation Forum, Deutsche Aircraft CEO Nico Neumann elaborated on the challenges ahead as the company prepares to put its re-imagined D328eco into production.
As the German OEM prepares to bring its updated regional turboprop to market (in the form of the D328eco), “the demand is there, but now we have to find ways to deliver,” stated Neumann.
Production of the original 32-passenger D328 ceased in the early 2000s. Deutsche Aircraft acquired the type certificate from former manufacturer Fairchild Dornier in 2006. Only 107 D328s were built, followed by another 110 D328Jets. For the last two decades, it has continued to support between 40-50 328s and around two dozen 328 Jets in service. However, with the OEM anticipating 2027 type certification and entry into service for its upcoming 40-passenger D328eco, manufacturing considerations are already underway.