Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
- GE testing of giant GE9X engine aims for maturity at entry into service June 30, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 28. June 27, 2025
- Parent agency, FAA often at odds as politics outweighs safety June 26, 2025
- Electric Flight and the Ugly Duckling June 25, 2025
- Engine makers tout “Plan A” but have “Plan B” backups in R&D June 23, 2025
Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 25.
By Bjorn Fehrm
June 6, 2025, ©. Leeham News: We do a Corner series about the state of developments to improve the emission situation for Air Transport. We try to understand why development has been slow.
We examined alternative, lower-emission propulsion technologies four weeks ago and compared them the following week to the industry’s typical improvement in fuel consumption over time. Then, we examined the improvements that SAF can offer by 2050. Last week, we complemented the picture with the different Emission Trading Schemes (ETS) that exist globally.
Now, we discuss what warming contrail avoidance could achieve in reducing global warming.
Figure 1. A summary of the CO2 and non-CO2 Effective Radiative Forcing (ERF = warming effect) contributions from Air Transport. Source: The report “The contribution of global aviation to anthropogenic climate forcing for 2000-2018” by Lee et al. (2021)
New RISE powerplant benefits from decades of GE research and development
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By Scott Hamilton
June 5, 2025, © Leeham News: Decades of research and development by GE Aerospace are a key element in the potential program of a step-change engine for the next new single-aisle airliner.
Mohamed Ali, SVP, chief technology and operations officer. Credit: GE Aerospace.
The RISE open fan engine, a joint project of GE and France’s Safran under the banner CFM International, has a huge fan without an engine nacelle, hence the name “open fan.”
One major concern about an engine without a shroud or nacelle to contain a blade failure is that the engine “throwing” a blade could penetrate the fuselage, causing injury or death to the passenger and substantial damage to the aircraft.
In a briefing last week by GE Aerospace, Mohamed Ali, the Senior Vice President, chief technology and operations officer, said the RISE’s composite blades benefit from millions of flight hours of composite blades on the GE90 (Boeing 777), CFM LEAP (Boeing 737 MAX and Airbus A320neo), GEnx (Boeing 787) and GE9X (Boeing 777X) engines. None of these engines (which have nacelles) has ever thrown a composite blade.
GE says the RISE can reduce fuel consumption, and with it lower emissions, by at least 20%. RISE is currently a development program. However, the company clearly is betting that this is the wave of the future. Rivals Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce instead are betting on evolutions of conventional turbofan engines as a “safer” bet.
GE targets RISE’s entry into service in 2035. Officials say the R&D remains on track to meet this date.
Engine makers emphasizing durability, reliability
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By Scott Hamilton
Larry Culp, CEO of GE Aerospace. Credit: GE.
June 3, 2025, © Leeham News: Engine reliability and durability for the next new commercial aviation engine for the next new single-aisle airplane has emerged as the top demand of airlines and lessors.
Burned, frustrated, and angry by shortcomings in these areas in engines from every manufacturer, potential customers prioritize getting these areas right over reduced fuel consumption and lower emissions.
Airlines have had issues of varying severity with GE Aerospace’s GEnx (the Boeing 787); the CFM LEAP (Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX); Pratt & Whitney’s Geared Turbo Fan (Airbus A220 and A320neo and Embraer E2); and Rolls-Royce (Boeing 787, Airbus A350-1000). (GE is a 50% joint venture partner in CFM, with France’s Safran holding the other 50%.)
Tim Clark, the president of Emirates Airline, has been publicly vocal about his concerns regarding these issues with the forthcoming Boeing 777-9 and its massive GE9X engine, which is now undergoing flight testing. He’s also cited durability issues with the RR Trent XWB-97 engine on the Airbus A350-1000 as his key reason for holding off on ordering this model. Emirates has just taken delivery of the first A350-900s, the smaller version of the A350, powered by the Trent XWB-84. Reliability and durability issues have been reported for the smaller -900 and lower-thrust XWB-84 in the harsh Middle East environment.
In an appearance at an investors’ conference on May 28 hosted by Bernstein Research, GE CEO Larry Culp discussed these issues with the LEAP engine and how lessons learned apply to the RISE open fan.
Boeing CEO: Lessons learned are key to certification of 737-7/10 and 777X
By Karl Sinclair
Analysis
June 2, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg believes that lessons learned from the 737 MAX crisis and subsequent in-depth oversight by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) are key to certifying the 737-10 MAX and the 777X.
He explained why during an appearance last week at an investors conference organized by Bernstein Research.
“We’re watching real closely to make sure that we aren’t over committing in terms of how many different seat configurations we can get certified in a certain period of time and the complexity,” Ortberg said. “It’s something that we’ve got to watch, particularly the Dash 10s that have types of complex seat configurations.”
Ortberg added that the 777-9 also features complex configurations for international airlines, offering luxurious passenger accommodations.
Kelly Ortberg, CEO of The Boeing Co. Credit: Getty Images.
“It’s going to be with us also on the 777-9 as we bring that into service, making sure we incorporate lessons learned here so that we don’t have seating delays on those aircraft,” he said. “Those aircraft will have the most complex configurations in the front of the airplane.”
Certification of the 777X stalled because of the MAX certification review. There have also been some technical issues that have been and must be resolved. But at long last, flight testing with all four test aircraft has resumed.
“I’m hopeful that we’ll get through the certification flight tests by the end of the year,” Ortberg told the Bernstein conference. “We may still be doing some ETOPS testing going into next year, but there is no real change to our forecast of getting that certification done so that we can start deliveries next year.
“It’s an airplane that has had the most flight testing done of any other aircraft we’ve ever done in terms of hours. We feel pretty good about the stability and our entry into service for the airplane that we’ve done enough flight testing on that it’s going to be a great airplane.”
Digital twin is a key to JetZero’s hopes for Blended Wing Body entry
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By Scott Hamilton
June 2, 2025, © Leeham News: Little in the way of product development or new airplanes is expected at the Paris Air Show, which begins on June 16. No new commercial airplane programs will be forthcoming from Airbus, Boeing, or Embraer. Nor will any new commercial engines be forthcoming from GE Aerospace, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce, or CFM International (a GE-Safran joint venture).
Instead, the air show briefings are most likely to be progress reports, discussions about new materials and sustainability.
One new entrant that is still in the research and development stage, with the production of a demonstrator aircraft underway, is JetZero. The start-up is developing a 250-passenger Blended Wing Body airplane (BWB) designed for the middle of the market (250-300 seats) currently occupied by the aging Airbus A330-200/300 and Boeing 767-300ER; and the newer Boeing 787-8 and Airbus A330neo.
JetZero has daunting tasks ahead to successfully bring its BWB, called the Z4, to the market. It needs $7bn to $10bn (it has, publicly, less than $300m). JetZero plans to make a site selection announcement any day now, before the air show. An entirely new production plant is required. It needs to build the plant, production tooling and the final assembly line.
One of the keys to the program is the reliance on a digital twin production plant and innards. JetZero has hired the giant firm Siemens to help design the digital twin, an effort that Siemens officials predict will reduce the time to build the facility by 20%-30 %.
Boeing and Airbus have identified advanced production processes as key to the next new airplane, whatever it may be. When Boeing was pondering the New Midmarket Airplane (NMA) for the Middle of the Market (MOM), officials said production was more important than the airplane itself.
Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 24.
May 30, 2025, ©. Leeham News: We do a Corner series about the state of developments to improve the emission situation for Air Transport. We try to understand why development has been slow.
We examined alternative, lower-emission propulsion technologies three weeks ago and compared them to the industry’s typical improvement in fuel consumption over time the following week. Last week, we examined the improvements that SAF can offer by 2050.
Figure 1. The countries/regions with ETS or Carbon trading systems. Source: Wikipedia.
Before comparing these actions to lower emissions with the Contrail research, we examine the various emission trading schemes currently active worldwide.
Does an A220-500 need a new wing and engines? Part 3.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
May 29, 2025, © Leeham News: We are writing an article series about stretching the A220 to a capacity in the A320neo range. The idea is to replace the A320neo over time to make room in the A320/321 production lines for more A321s and extend the A220 family with a larger variant.
We analyzed what we need to change to bring the capacity to the level of the A320neo. We could achieve this with a fuselage stretch, but then the Maximum TakeOff Weight (MTOW) would need to increase to keep the A220 range. The wing and engines would then have problems, the takeoff run would get longer, and the climb to an efficient initial cruise altitude would be affected.
We now examine the potential fixes for these problems.
Figure 1. A rendering of an A220-500. Source: Leeham Co.
Summary:
- The A220-300 wing is not highly loaded compared to other Airbus single-aisle aircraft. With some modifications, it should be sufficient for an A220-500.
- The A220 engine is the mid-sized Pratt & Whitney geared turbofan, the PW1500G. It has limited thrust stretch capability. An alternative for a long-range (and thus heavier) A220-500 would be the CFM LEAP-1B from the 737 MAX.
Boeing’s future depends on FAA approvals
By Scott Hamilton
Analysis
May 26, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing’s future depends on satisfying the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) that its failures to follow safety protocols and quality control standards are behind it.
It’s been a rough six years since the worldwide Boeing 737 MAX fleet was grounded for 21 months following two fatal accidents five months apart. The existential threat to Boeing from the grounding was exacerbated by the two-year COVID-19 pandemic and a 20-month suspension in deliveries of the Boeing 787 due to production defects.
Then, just when Boeing was making progress, a previously undetected quality “escape” allowed a door plug on a brand new 737-9 MAX operated by Alaska Airlines to separate from the airplane at 14,800 ft shortly after take-off from Portland (OR) on Jan. 5, 2024.
A new crisis hit Boeing. The FAA, which had clamped down on Boeing’s 737 production line following the grounding on March 13, 2019, tightened its grip even further.
Today, Boeing is slowly clawing its way back.
In a media briefing last week for its fourth annual release of its Chief Aerospace Safety Officer Report (CASO Report), Don Ruhmann, the CASO, and three colleagues outlined Boeing’s progress in satisfying the FAA that Boeing is on a path to technical and safety recovery. (Financial recovery is not strictly the FAA’s concern and wasn’t covered in the briefing.)
Summary
- Boeing’s Speak Up program for employees did not have an independent manager to whom complaints, concerns, and suggestions could be tendered. Previously, line managers received complaints, raising fears among employees that retaliation was possible. Now, an independent manager is part of the process.
- Boeing told LNA that Ruhmann welcomes a meeting with the engineers’ union, SPEEA, to hear concerns over a stalled SPEEA safety initiative called ASAP.
- Preparations for expansion of 737 production to the Everett (WA) widebody factory are underway, but this, too, depends on the FAA.
The annual report is an outgrowth of the 2018-2019 737 MAX crashes and the crisis that followed.
Updated, May 29, 2025: Department of Justice, Boeing OK to Non-Prosecution Agreement
UPDATE, May 30, 2025: The Non-Prosecution Agreement was filed with the federal court in the Northern District of Texas yesterday. Here is the document: 5-29-25 Boeing-MAX DOJ NPA
May 23, 2025, (c) Leeham News: The US Department of Justice and Boeing okayed the framework of a Non-Prosecution Agreement to finally resolve the litigation dating to the 2018/19 737 MAX accidents and the Jan. 5, 2024, Alaska Airlines flight 1282 accident. The notice was filed today in the federal court of the Northern District of Texas.
Boeing agrees to pay a total of $1.1bn in fines, compensation and investments. Some of this was previously paid with a Deferred Prosecution Agreement reached in 2021; and some was agreed in a second DPA reached last December. The first DPA was essentially voided following the Flight 1282 accident and the second was rejected on procedural grounds by the judge in the Texas federal court.
The notice may be downloaded here: NPA Notice 5-23-25.
The full agreement should be filed next week, the DOJ said.
Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 23.
By Bjorn Fehrm
May 23, 2025, ©. Leeham News: We do a Corner series about the state of developments to improve the emission situation for Air Transport. We try to understand why development has been slow.
We have since we started in October last year looked at:
- Alternative, lower emission, propulsion technologies, ranging from electric aircraft with batteries as energy source, different propulsion hybrids, and new concepts for Jet-Fuel and Hydrogen gas turbine engines.
- We have also looked at recent research into the role of CO2, NOx emissions and Contrails generated by airliners.
- Three weeks ago, we summarized the present situation around SAF, Sustainable Aviation Fuel.
We examined Alternative 1’s emissions improvement two weeks ago and compared it to the normal improvement in new airliners’ fuel consumption last week. Now, we examine the improvement that SAF can offer compared to the other two.