By Bjorn Fehrm
19 Feb 2015: There has been much speculation over the last weeks and months what Boeing is up to in the segment 200 to 250 seats, also know as the “757 replacement market“. The speculations over Airbus response are also vivid. One of the reasons is that apart from this segment the landscape of which civil airliners will be produced over the next 10-15 years is pretty much settled; Cseries is on final stretch of development, A320neo is flying while 737 MAX flies next year. A330neo will fly 2017 as will 787-10. A350-1000 start testing in 2016 with deliveries in 2017 and 777-9X flies 2019 with deliveries 2020.
Apart from an announcement by Russia and China that they will design a 250-280 seat widebody there is only the “757 replacement” segment which can result in a clean sheet approach from the major OEMs. Around this questions has arisen a lot of speculation about possible short and long term solutions. Having done a lot of checking of these alternatives with our proprietary model, we have learned that:
As we started to analyze the results from all these checks we saw a pattern emerging which gave strong arguments where a single aisle is the solution and where the aircraft should be dual aisle. The argumentation has several dimensions. We have therefore decided to collect it all in an article series that we kick of next week.
In this we will present data collected from all these simulations combined with new facts that we generate using aircraft conceptual design techniques. It will shed new light on the work that is going on at Boeing, Airbus and now also United Aircraft and COMAC.
We will go through some of the fundamental trades that these teams are faced with and what the likely outcome will be for different market segments. In the end it shall be pretty clear if we will see a New Single Aisle (NSA) or New Light Twin (NLT) as replacement for today’s aircraft in the segment 200 to 250 seats or will it have to be both?