Figure 1. Airbus and Boeing production rates for the A320 and 737 lines are going up as announced rates and rates under consideration go to lofty levels. Click on image to enlarge.

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Introduction

March 3, 2015: c. Leeham Co. Production rates for single aisle airplanes continue to go up for the Big Two, following the Airbus announcement last week that the A320 rates will go to 50/mo in 2017 and officials are considering going to more than 60/mo.

We've previously reported that Airbus already has notified the supply chain to be prepared to go to 54/mo in 2018.

Rate 50 will propel Airbus ahead of Boeing, which will briefly be ahead of Airbus when the 737 production rate goes to 47/mo next year, compared with the Airbus plan to take A320 rates to 46/mo next year. The two companies are at parity this year. (Figure 1.)

Summary

• Bombardier, COMAC and Irkut add to supply by 2020, but impact will be minimal.
• No 747-8 deliveries scheduled in 2018. We see program termination coming very soon.
• A330ceo production rate reduced, higher rate for 787 than announced.
• We see short-term Airbus advantage coming in wide-body production rates as A350 ramps up. We stick with our call that 777 Classic rates have to come down.
• We reduce A380 production rates in our estimates.