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By Judson Rollins, Bjorn Fehrm & Scott Hamilton

Sept. 21, 2020, © Leeham News: Commercial aviation is facing a lost decade due to COVID.

Yes, most forecasts target 2024-2025 as returning to 2019 passenger traffic and aircraft production levels.

However, LNA in July published its own analysis indicating full recovery may not occur until 2028. Breathless headlines notwithstanding, it will take years for vaccines to be widely available and considered safe by enough of the world’s population. Growing concern about vaccine production and distribution capacity through 2024 underscores this view. Even Southwest Airlines CEO Gary Kelly said earlier this month that business travel might not fully return for a decade.

Indeed, the 2020s may well be a lost decade for aircraft manufacturers and their supply chains.

Summary

• Debt-laden airlines will have little money to order new airplanes
• Interest in re-engined 787, A350 likely nil this decade
• Airbus, Boeing, Embraer have little interest in launching new programs
• Engine makers too financially stretched to develop new designs
• Engineering talent, knowledge will be decimated by inevitable job reductions
• OEMs must “play the long game” at short-term cost to safeguard their futures