Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
FedEx gets ‘best and final offers’ from Airbus, Boeing
FedEx is considering ordering the Airbus A330-200F or Boeing 767-300F. We learned at ISTAT that some at the company think the A330-200F is too much airplane in terms of range for US domestic service and would prefer the short-range A330-300F capable of carrying more volume. Although some months ago Jon Ostrower broke the story that FDX was talking with Boeing about the 767-400, we learned at ISTAT Boeing said “no.” It is focused on the KC-46A, 767-derived tanker and doesn’t want to take on a program that would divert resources from this effort.
Separately, we learned that Airbus and Boeing submitted their best and final offers last week and a decision–which might include a decision to do nothing–could come as early as this week. Concerns over the economy are spooking FDX, we are told, and there is a faction that favors acquiring more Boeing 757s for conversion and doubling up on frequency if capacity is needed while maintaining the flexibility to cut capacity in a downturn at a lower capital acquisition cost.
If Airbus were to win this order for the A330F, then the prospect of Airbus proceeding with the Mobile (AL) plant is back on the table, we are told.
Reporting from ISTAT next week
We’re off to the ISTAT Europe conference and will be reporting next week from Barcelona.
In the meantime, here is a PR faux pas, one of those embarrassing slips that we with warped senses of humor can’t pass up.
In an email subject line from Airbus this morning:
“Airbus in Illegal delivers first A350 XWB Wing Lower Cover to Airbus in Brought on – Airbus images”.
Here’s the correct headline on the press release itself:
Airbus in Illescas delivers first A350 XWB Wing Lower Cover to Airbus in Broughton
Can you say “Oops”?
Aspire Aviation has a long interview with Virgin America CEO David Cush, in which he makes some interesting comments about the A319neo, the A320neo, the Pratt & Whitney GTF and the CFM LEAP.
Boeing (doesn’t) prepare to deliver first 747-8F and we look at the program; update 9/17
Update, Sept. 17: Boeing must feel snake-bit.
We had boarded our flight to ISTAT Barcelona and were still at the gate in Seattle when news erupted that the first delivery of the 747-8F to Cargolux is off. AirInsight has a commentary on this. We expect to pick up some intel on the issue, perhaps as early as the Sunday night reception but otherwise Monday or Tuesday. Watch our reporting from Barcelona.
Original Post
As Boeing prepares for delivery ceremonies for the 747-8F to Cargolux Airlines September 19—an event we will miss because of travel in Europe to the ISTAT conference—The Boeing Co., its employees, suppliers, and the airline personnel are justifiably excited.
Not only does this represent the hand-over after a two year delay in a difficult program, it represents the largest airliner Boeing has ever built, the latest and most advanced version of the venerable 747 but it also represents what is almost certainly the last 747 model that will ever be built.
As cool and as whiz-bang as the 747-8 is (though obviously, Lufthansa’s 747-8I will have more panache than a freighter), our thoughts go in a different direction.
Boeing at APEX, Pratt & Whitney’s dilemma
Over at our affiliate, AirInsight, there is a 27 minute video of Randy Tinseth, VP of Marketing at Boeing, making a presentation and our think piece about Pratt & Whitney’s dilemma following the launch of the Boeing 737 MAX.
See both pieces here.
Additional: Aspire Aviation today published a long piece about the 777X. See the story here. Update, Sept. 14: Aeroturbopower comments on the fuel burn analysis for the 777X. Update, 230pm PDT: Jon Ostrower has this article on 777X.
Odds and Ends: ARJ-21, C919, MAX, 777X
There are several stories of note today:
Aviation Week: China’s turboprops exports lead the way.
Aviation Week: Plan for C919 hits snags.
FlightGlobal: Caution welcomed on Boeing’s 737 MAX.
FlightGlobal: Emirates presses Boeing for better 777.
Seattle Times: WA State has to keep 737 MAX.
737-9 Mission creep, Odds and Ends and 500,000
Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO Jim Albaugh was clear: he wants changes to the 737 MAX to be kept to a minimum.
This will keep the R&D cost down–a figure Corporate CFO James Bell said on the 2Q earnings call would be 10%-15% that of an entirely new airplane ($10bn-$12bn, depending on who’s figuring; it is unclear how much of the R&D is paid by CFM).
But there is pressure to add range to the 737-MAX 9 (henceforth we’ll be referring to individual models of the MAX series as the -7, -8 and -9 and the family as a whole as just MAX). The 737-9 falls short of a true 757 replacement in range.
Assessing the 737-900ER vs Airbus NEO
AeroTurboPower has an interesting piece looking at the fuel burn and cash costs of the 737-900ER vs the A320neo and A321neo.
The post is noteworthy as an independent analysis to Airbus or Boeing. Boeing, of course, claims the 737-900ER is more efficient that either the A321 Legacy or A321neo.
737MAX costs vs A320neo
AirInsight takes a look at the Boeing claims of 4%-7% cost advantages of the 737MAX vs the A320neo. The analysis comes to a slightly different conclusion than Boeing.
The X-Factor, this time at Boeing
Boeing announced the name of its new 737 re-engined aircraft and like Airbus for the A350 XWB, there is now and X-Factor with Boeing: the 737 MAX-7/8/9.
Precise details on the MAX remain uncertain; Jim Albaugh, CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, said engineering is still deciding whether to go for a 66-inch or 68-inch fan diameter for the CFM LEAP-1B. Although Albaugh said it is believe the larger fan still will not require a longer nose gear, with a ripple-effect of changes to the fuselage, he added that there is a contingency determined if a longer gear proves necessary with the larger fan.
Albaugh said final design configuration is still some weeks away.