Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 25. June 6, 2025
- New RISE powerplant benefits from decades of GE research and development June 5, 2025
- Engine makers emphasizing durability, reliability June 4, 2025
- Boeing CEO: Lessons learned are key to certification of 737-7/10 and 777X June 2, 2025
- Digital twin is a key to JetZero’s hopes for Blended Wing Body entry June 2, 2025
Single or twin Aisle for cargo rich routes?
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Oct. 21, 2021, © Leeham News: LNA started the cargo-themed series by comparing factory and converted freighter aircraft performance. We followed with the comparison of cargo capacity for different passenger airliners with the same low number of passengers.
The latter showed that freight revenues alone could justify operating a larger variant despite lower passenger load factors. We now continue the cargo-themed series from a different angle.
Several countries, notably the United Kingdom, United States, and Singapore, re-opened quarantine-free travel for non-residents who received a COVID-19 vaccine. After more than 18 months of depressed passenger traffic, airlines are hopeful long-haul traffic will finally restart in earnest.
It will probably take a few more years until long-haul traffic fully recovers to pre-pandemic levels globally. With that in mind, airlines need to decide how to rebuild their long-haul networks gradually.
Launched a few months before the COVID-19 pandemic, the A321(X)LR seems an ideal aircraft to test the market before committing to larger aircraft. LNA has extensively written about the pre-COVID-19 long-haul market fragmentation with the smaller twin-aisle (A350 and 787) and higher-range single-aisle (737MAX and A321LR) aircraft.
However, is a long-range single-aisle aircraft always the best choice to rebuild a network when cargo prices are high? LNA will answer that question in the next part of the series.
Summary
- A pre-COVID19 fragmentation momentum;
- Pandemic turns long-haul business upside down;
- The appeal of long-range single-aisle aircraft assumes normal cargo prices;
- What a single-aisle airplane can’t provide.
Air freight demand explosion: a long-term trend?
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By Judson Rollins
Introduction
October 18, 2021, © Leeham News: Much ink has been spilled over the surge in demand that has washed over every corner of the cargo world: air, sea, road, and rail.
Amazon Air’s first parcels being unloaded at Amazon.com’s new Cincinnati (US) sort hub. Source: Amazon.com.
Before the COVID-19 crisis, air transport was reserved primarily for items with high value and/or time sensitivity, such as laptop computers or express documents. And growing competition in the cargo market meant that average yield (revenue per ton-mile) was declining by more than 2% per year, according to past editions of Boeing’s World Air Cargo Forecast.
But now the cost of sea transport has exploded, shifting a significant chunk of cargo from ocean freighters to their airborne equivalents. This is driving some retailers to use air transport. Home Depot, an American home-improvement retailer, is resorting to air freight to bring in smaller, higher-value items like power tools that it needs to keep on the shelves at all times.
Even before COVID-19, a growing share of air freight has come from e-commerce — thereby shifting the volume-to-weight considerations relative to “traditional” freight.
Will these trends continue even beyond the COVID crisis? And what impact will it have on the market for factory-built freighters and passenger-to-freighter (P2F) conversions?
Summary
- Soaring sea freight yields mean small shipments are now more economic by air than sea.
- Volumetric capacity matters more than max gross weight.
- New freighter options will compete with a glut of conversion feedstock.
- Air freight yields will eventually revert to historical trendlines in most regions.
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of airliner development. Part 25. Safety monitoring and reporting
By Bjorn Fehrm, Henry Tam, and Andrew Telesca
October 15, 2021, ©. Leeham News: Last week, we introduced the activities around Continued Airworthiness that we have to do during development and flight testing of our aircraft.
As described, the majority of accidents for aircraft are attributed to failings in Continued Airworthiness and Operations rather than design. We listed Continued Operational Safety, Operational Preparedness, and Service Readiness as the three important areas for Continued Airworthiness.
We dive into Continued Operational Safety first, specifically Safety Monitoring and Reporting.
Figure 1. A graph showing how an OEM and FAA surveys the operation of an aircraft and takes action. Source: Boeing.
Is the cargo capacity deciding the airliner variant? Part 3.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
October 7, 2021, © Leeham News: In last week’s article, we could see today’s high cargo prices can motivate a 325 seat Airbus A350-900 even though the passenger load on the routes would point to a 240 seat A330-800.
How far does this “paying for a larger aircraft with belly cargo” paradigm go? Today we see if Airbus’ largest aircraft, the A350-1000, can generate the margins of the A350-900 on freight-rich routes. Can an airline that has an A350-900 sized passenger demand for such routes go to an A350-1000 instead?
Summary
- The increased yields for air cargo leads to surprising effects. Oversized passenger models can survive the passenger drought on today’s international routes as long as it’s a route with good freight demand.
Pontifications: Upping the game in eco Aviation
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 4, 2021, © Leeham News: The pressure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by the commercial aviation industry continues to increase.
Two weeks ago, Airbus hosted a day-and-a-half media event promoting its vision of moving toward decarbonizing aviation.
Boeing and Alaska Airlines last week hosted media for a touchy-feely event following up on the announcement in June by Boeing and Alaska of its joint ecoD (as Boeing calls it) program.
Boeing in October outlined progress of its ecoDemonstrator program, at the time with Etihad Airways as the partner. A 787-10 was used at that stage.
Mike Sinnett, Boeing VP of Product Development, said last week that the Alaska 737-9 MAX that is the focus of the current ecoD effort includes several ideas that would not make it into test on a stand-alone basis. But as part of a larger effort, little things that cumulatively can reduce drag and therefore fuel burn can be tested.
IATA AGM: Airplanes, engines SAF capable coming; feedstock lags by years
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By Scott Hamilton
Introduction
Oct. 4, 2021, © Leeham News: Engine and airframe makers are well on their way to becoming fully capable of using Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). But the industries providing SAF are way behind in meeting the potential demand.
Rick Deurloo of Pratt & Whitney
Rick Deurloo. Sr. VP & Chief Commercial Officer at Pratt & Whitney said one major US airline would use all currently available SAF in one day.
“The challenge will be the feedstock. How do we grow that technology or grow that ability to provide the feedstock so when we do have 100% SAF-capable aircraft and engines, we have the energy to go with it?” Deurloo said in an interview with LNA at the IATA AGM this week in Boston.
Airlines around the world are partnering with different companies to develop this technology, he said.
PW is already 50% capable and has a “clear path” to getting 100% capable within two years. But there is not enough feedstock in the world today do fill the 50% capability.
Is the cargo capacity deciding the airliner variant? Part 2.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
September 30, 2021, © Leeham News: In last week’s article, we put the question: Has the increased cargo pricing started to affect the choice of airliner variant?
We analyzed Boeing’s 787-8 and -9 for margin generation when flying at low post-pandemic load factors. We found the 787-9 is the more attractive alternative as long as air cargo pricing stays high, even though the passenger load factor on the route would motivate a 787-8. The revenue from under the floor cargo compensates for a low load factor in the cabin. Now we subject the Airbus range; A330neo, and A350 to the same analysis.
Summary
- The trend from last week continues. Variants with high cargo capacity can sustain lower load factors while generating the same margin on routes.
- This article develops the passenger load factors where the margin generation is the same between Airbus widebodies.
Airbus begins “stuffing” A220 to speed assembly, cut costs
By Scott Hamilton
Florent Massou. Photo: Airbus.
Sept. 28, 2021, © Leeham News: Airbus is streamlining some of its production of the A220 to reduce costs and the time to assemble the airplanes at its Montreal and Mobile plants.
Florent Massou, the SVP and Head of the A220 program, told LNA the company wants to shave 50% of the final assembly time for the A220. There will be an unrevealed cost reduction, which Massou declined to reveal. But he said it isn’t a one-for-one cost reduction.
Final assembly typically runs 5% to 8% of the total cost of the airplane, according to Boeing’s touch labor union, the IAM 751. Whether this equates to the A220, which began life as a Bombardier aircraft, is unknown.
Airbus’ TwoTwenty, its first real business jet
By Bjorn Fehrm
September 28, 2021, ©. Leeham News: When Airbus got the A220 airliner series from Bombardier, it also got the base for a competitive business jet.
Airbus, like Boeing, has produced Corporate Jets under its ACJ (Airbus Corporate Jets) since 1997 by converting its passenger A319, A320, A330, and A350 to one-off jets for Corporations, States, or wealthy individuals.
With the business jet based on A220-100, this changes. It’s no longer a one-off production but a fully-fledged Bizjet like the Gulfstream 650/700 or Bombardier Global 6500/7500, produced in series and with a semi-custom modular interior.
Figure 1. The Airbus TwoTwenty, the first real Airbus Bizjet. Source: Airbus.
Airbus presents their CityAirbus UAM
By Bjorn Fehrm
September 21, 2021, ©. Leeham News: Airbus helicopter division presented their entry for the UAM market today at the Airbus 2021 Summit in Toulouse.
It was a presentation of a vehicle and ecosystem that has been cooking for years. After two demonstrators that tested different aspects of eVTOL flight and thousand of hours on supercomputers and in wind tunnels, the final CityAirbus is here, Figure 1.
Its configuration is as unique as Airbus’ approach when presenting it.
Figure 1. Airbus UAM entry, the CityAirbus. Source: Airbus.