Merry Christmas

Boeing aims to help airlines reduce fuel burn in flight

Here is a story we did for FlightGlobal Pro 20 Dec.

A little known programme offered by Boeing since October 2010 called InFlight Optimization Services offers airlines the ability to get up-to-date, en route weather and wind information that is more detailed than that offered by one’s own airline in order to reduce fuel consumption.

The programme is so new that only five airlines have subscribed to the service so far. Only two, Alaska Airlines and KLM, have authorised disclosure. Three are for Winds Updates and two for Direct Routes services.

The services are not limited to airlines operating exclusively Boeing aircraft. Alaska flies only Boeing 737s but KLM operates a mixed fleet of Airbuses and Boeings. While Direct Routes is available to any aircraft equipment with ACARS, the Winds Update currently is offered only to Airbus and Boeing aircraft, said Derek Gefroh, programme manager of InFlight. Emrbaer and Bombardier aircraft could come later.

Part of the emphasis on Airbus and Boeing aircraft revolves around the stage length operated. The longer the length, the more the benefit. Short block times typically have recent wind forecasts while the longer the block time, the older the forecast, particularly on overseas flights.

Airlines also want total fleet solutions, hence Boeing’s offering the service on Airbus and Boeing aircraft.

InFlight is designed to maximise fuel and flight efficiency through continuous real-time air, traffic, weather and aircraft data to find post-departure opportunities to reduce flight time and fuel costs. Boeing monitors the flight and sends real-time updates to the flight deck or the airline’s operations centre.

According to Boeing, citing studies, operations generally use about 10% more fuel than necessary. While KLM said the savings is as little as 0.1% per flight, cumulatively over a fleet and the course of a year, the savings can be significant.

The wind updates are, for now, focused on descent operations rather than en route winds. The wind updates combine with continuous descent and RNP (Required Navigation Procedure) to shave the time off the descents.

Gefroh said that wind data could be as much as 12 hours old when pilots prepare their flight plans. Real-time, en route information permits real-time adjustments as pilots prepare to descend from cruising altitude, typically about 20 minutes from landing.

As for direct routes, airlines for years have worked with Air Traffic Control to bypass waypoints under what is called a “Direct to” system. But Gefroh said that sometimes adverse winds could actually add time to a direct routing.

“For medium size operator, like an Alaska or one a bit larger, direct routes can provide them 40,000 minutes of annual flight time saved,” said Gefroh. This equates to 300 fuel-free flights per year. “The question is, how valuable is a minute?” Boeing estimates this at $25 for regional, $125 for a very large carrier or cargo airline, $50 minute for a carrier like Southwest Airlines and $100 for a US legacy airline.

These efforts are an outgrowth of a five-year research-and-development programme by Boeing to find efficiencies in the Air Traffic Management system. But improving ATM is a federal and international effort. The US plan, NextGen, could be as much as 20 years to fully implement. Airlines need savings now.

Looking ahead to 2012 by AirInsight

In what is the first of a series of OEM podcasts looking ahead at 2012, AirInsight kicks off with Randy Tinseth, VP Marketing of Boeing Commercial Aircraft.

Separately, Aspire Aviation takes a long look at the Boeing 737 MAX.

Odds and Ends: MAX prices, Albaugh on MAX, BBD on CSeries

737 MAX: Boeing has ann0unced the prices for the MAX and Reuters has this story comparing the competition with NEO:

Airplane Families 2011 $ in Millions Average
737 Family
737-600 59.4
737-700 70.9
737-800 84.4
737-900ER 89.6
737 MAX 7 77.7 (+6.8)
737 MAX 8 95.2 (+10.8)
737 MAX 9 101.7 (+12.1)
747 Family
747-8 332.9
747-8 Freighter 333.5
767 Family
767-200ER 151.5
767-300ER 173.1
767-300 Freighter 175.4
767-400ER 190.2
777 Family
777-200ER 244.7
777-200LR 275.8
777-300ER 298.3
777 Freighter 280.1
787 Family
787-8 193.5
787-9 227.8

What’s interesting of the MAX prices vs NG is the price premium of up to $12m, nearly twice that announced by Airbus for the NEO. Recall, too, that Boeing dissed the Airbus plans to charge a premium for the NEO; Boeing used the NEO premium as a talking point to promote the value proposition of the 737NG.

Boeing: Jim Albaugh, appearing at a Reuters event, says Boeing expects to begin converting the 948 commitments to firm orders very soon. Who are the commitments? Only four are announced out of 13 customers.

We’ve listed most of them before. We now understand that there are five top lessors who have committed (only one has announced). We’ve previously identified GECAS (no surprise here). We knew of another but did not have the name. ILFC, ALC and CIT are obvious candidates but we don’t have definitive information that these are the others.

Announced firm order

  • Southwest Airlines

Announced commitments

  • American
  • Lionair*
  • Aviation Capital Group

Lionair says theirs is more than a commitment while at the same time saying it won’t be “firmed” until January. The announcement was in November and it is not on the Boeing order list yet.

Unannounced but we’re comfortable these have committed:

  • GECAS
  • Three other lessors
  • COPA
  • GOL
  • Norwegian Air Shuttle

That’s 11 of the 13. We have heard the names of the other two but aren’t sure enough of them to publish them.

Bombardier: Pierre Beaudoin, president of the Canadian manufacturer, gave an interview to the Montreal Gazette on the challenges facing the company on the new CSeries. Hints of a six month delay are becoming more frequent.

Southwest Airlines: For those still wondering, it’s now official: Boeing and Southwest agreed to transfer AirTran’s outstanding order for 53 737s to Southwest, according to an SEC filing. Southwest also canceled purchase rights of its own for 20 737s as part of the order for 58 737-800s announced at the same time the MAX order was announced.

Softening Freighter Market: In another worrying sign about the global economy, Cathy Pacific has deferred to Boeing 747-8Fs to 2013 from 2012, according to AirWise. Global cargo demand is often a leading indicator of passenger demand.

Embraer forecasts a “crisis” in the Brazilian economy next year but an increase in commercial aircraft sales nonetheless.

Southwest launches 737-8, bypasses 737-7 for now

Here is an article we did yesterday for Flightglobal Pro’s subscription service.

The Southwest Airlines order on 13 December launching the 737 Max programme is a launch of the -8 version. The carrier, which has substitution rights between the -7 and the -8, has chosen to bypass the -7 for now.

Brian Hirshman, SVP Technical Operations, told Flightglobal Pro on 15 December that the carrier is up-gauging its fleet, which it began doing this year with acquisition of the 737-800 for the first time. Southwest, throughout its history since is 1971 birth, has relied on the 737-200/300/500/700, preferring smaller sized aircraft and high frequency as its business model.

Read more

FedEx orders 27 767-300Fs, defers 11 777Fs

Flight Pro (aka Flight Global) has reported FedEx ordered 27 Boeing 767-300Fs for delivery from 2014 through 2018 but at the same time deferred 11 777Fs within the 2013-2018 period as cargo demand softens.

The 767s will replace MD-10s, which are more than 40 years old.

Airbus had pitched the A330-200F but it was considered “too much airplane” for FDX. FDX also evaluated the potential 767-400F, but a FDX official told us at ISTAT Barcelona Boeing did not want to proceed with this new variant and risk impacting the USAF KC-46A tanker development. The KC-46A is a derivative of the 767-200, called the 767-2C.

Southwest press conference on 737 MAX order

Southwest Airlines held a web press conference (with written question submissions the staff can screen in advance–bad idea) on its new 737 MAX order. Here are highlights:

Gary Kelly, CEO

  • Only four 737 MAX delivered in 2017. Just 15 the following year. (From press release.)
  • Christmas came early to Southwest. [Last time Kelly said that was when he proposed moving from Sea-Tac to Boeing Field in Seattle. Got his head handed to him in the local opposition. Editor.]
  • We have seen tremendous advances with technology.
  • COO Mike Van der Ven led effort.
  • This is coming at just the right time. One of the main challenges we face are high fuel costs. We are very much in need of new technology to reduce the fuel burn and reduce environmental impact.
  • This supports our financial strategy.
  • Commonality major point.

Jim Albaugh, CEO of BCA.

  • [Albaugh looks a lot happier at this press conference than he did at the American Airlines one.]
  • Southwest is a special customer and we have a special relationship.
  • This is the first definitive agreement we signed. Southwest will get airplane #1 when it rolls off the line in Renton.
  • [With Southwest getting only 4 airplanes in 2017, this suggests a late 2017 EIS.–Editor]
  • 948 commitments now, projects 1,400-1,500 by the end of next year.
  • I don’t have the real thing but I have a model for you and a video.
  • [Video shows MAX will winglets, not the oft-speculated raked wingtips.]
  • This is largest order in Boeing’s history.

Kevin McAllister, VP Sales and Marketing for GE, representing CFM.

  • Southwest formally launches the LEAP-1B.

Mike Van der Ven, COO.

  • This allows us to accelerate the retirement of older airplanes.
  • Have 150 options to expand as well.
  • Our choice guarantees WN a single fleet type well into the next decade.
  • 16-18% fuel burn improvement over 737 Classics.
  • We’ve been in conversations with Boeing for several years.
  • Efficiency improvements allow up to improve without complexity.
  • Compared with A320neo and both did the job but 737 MAX was our choice.
  • Cost is $1.2bn for all outstanding orders (including those existing before today). Per year.
  • Airplanes still being defined.
  • 717s in leases 2017-2020+ and will work to see what the alternatives are but will operate through lease terms if we have to.
  • Primary factors of fleet commonality and gauge of 737-8 (more seats), lighter airplane vs A320.
  • We like the GTF technology but this comes as a package and CFM has millions of flight hours behind it. GE and CFM have been very good in past in delivering products on time and meeting specifications.

Brian Hirshman, SVP Technology, WN

  • We did extensive analysis vs A320neo and felt 737 MAX better suited.
  • Plane works better at Chicago Midway Airport, among other issues.
  • MAX would have to fly the same mission as NG and are satisfied it would do that.
  • We wanted as much commonality as we can.

John Hamilton, Boeing 737 chief engineer.

  • The airplane is fairly well defined. Will reach final configuration in 2013. It’s well enough known that WN and Boeing had confidence to go forward at this time.
  • MAX will have capability to have increased payload-range vs NG.
  • Airport performance was important, especially at key airports.
  • We will make sure we get Southwest what it wants.
  • We both would have liked a new airplane, but when you look at lessons learned [from 787] it was more challenging to bring to market in the timeframe customers wanted.

Chaker Chahrour, EVP CFM

  • Core is optimized for MAX for best overall fuel burn.
  • We believe we have much more credible technology than GTF. We have tremendous amount of confidence in our technology and at the end of the day it will be the most economical.

Southwest places firm order for MAX

Southwest Airlines became the first customer to place a firm order for 737 MAX. The press release is here. First delivery is 2017.

Southwest had been urging Boeing to proceed with the re-engine for two years, only to watch American Airlines become the first company to commit to the MAX last July.

Southwest has ordered more 737s than any other customer. It was the launch customer (and operator) of the 737-300/500/700.

AirInsight reports Southwest likely received a discount of around 48%.

Southwest’s delivery schedule for the MAX is here.

Leahy dismisses Boeing economic claims on 737 MAX vs A320neo

We did the following story Nov. 30 for Flight Global’s new Flight Pro subscription service.

Airbus’ new A320neo family will have up to 11% better fuel burn than the Boeing 737 Max family, John Leahy, COO Customers for Airbus, asserted November 30 at the Credit Suisse Aerospace conference.

Leahy challenged Boeing’s claims that the 737-800 Max will have a 7% advantage on a seat-cost basis. Boeing computes its figures on a total cash operating cost basis, which Leahy rejects as being subject to manipulation.

“There are some very aggressive people in marketing and Seattle who are veracity challenged,” Leahy told the Credit Suisse audience.

“I think that best way to look at it when everything else is equal is fuel burn. If you look at something where you can really change the variables too much, [it’s flawed]. If they say ‘I think the Airbus airframe is more expensive to maintain than our airframe,’ I advertise that it is less expensive. I think most airlines would agree with me. The worst I’ve ever seen is that we are equal. Boeing says the Airbus engine is substantially more expensive to maintain. They say Airbus is heavier so they put in a little bit extra charges. By the time you’re done, you probably see all sorts of different things to throw money in. If you can convince the airlines that you are right, I wouldn’t have the dominant market share I have. They would.”

On this basis, Leahy said the neo will defeat the Max in each model. The A319neo will have 6% lower fuel burn vs the 737-7; the A320neo will have 6% lower fuel burn; and the A321neo will have 11% lower burn.

He also said Airbus’ analysis concludes the Max will only achieve a net fuel burn reduction of 8% vs the 10%-12%Boeing claims.

US disputes EU claim of WTO-Airbus compliance, threatens sanctions

As Yogi Berra once said, “it ain’t over till it’s over.”

The US Trade Representative rejected EU claims that it had complied with WTO rulings that Airbus received illegal subsidies and that these had been repaid.

Here is the USTR statement. USTR claims sanctions of $7bn-$10bn annually are in order.

The USTR also objected to new subsidies granted (though without specifying, this presumably relates to the A350, which was not part of the 2004 case). Airbus has claimed the WTO didn’t rule out subsidies per se, just the terms on which they had been granted and that new subsidies for the A350 would be drawn on commercial terms.

The financial statements of EADS, Airbus’ parent company, shows reimbursable launch aid (as EADS/Airbus calls it) increased by more than 1bn Euros in 2010 over 2009, but did not specify how much of this was associated with the A350. The A320neo program wasn’t launched until December 2010, so while this could have benefited from launch aid, the probability that the increase was mostly related to the A350 seems high.

Boeing issued a statement that names the A350.

Airbus rejected the USTR and Boeing claims.

We say: we’re tired of the whole thing. As we have noted many times, we don’t like subsidies, period. Of any kind. To Airbus or Boeing or anyone else.